1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[comicwiz]

...as well as calling me a "fanboy," which I take it is the comic book dork equivalent of being called a insufficiently_thoughtful_person. He was way out of line.

 

FFB

 

I wouldn't worry about the fanboy bit. One of the most apathetic terms thrown around on these boards -- and a word which has been slung in my direction many a time.

 

Ironically, it is usually the case that anyone who openly admits to collecting anything (whether that be comics, running shoes, or thimbles) is to a large extent, a fan The fact that the comic market crash sentimentalists conveniently tuck their arsenal of indicators and theories of impending doom, cleverly behind the facade of "collecting", to somehow invoke this notion that they are immune from its impunity, is IMO the worst kind of fanboy, and is usually the type of behaviour and trait specifically found in closet investors.

 

Although in this case, it is clearly the behaviour of a rather disillusioned fanboy.

[Foolkiller]

Ironically, it is usually the case that anyone who openly admits to collecting anything (whether that be comics, running shoes, or thimbles) is to a large extent, a fan The fact that the comic market crash sentimentalists conveniently tuck their arsenal of indicators and theories of impending doom, cleverly behind the facade of "collecting", to somehow invoke this notion that they are immune from its impunity, is IMO the worst kind of fanboy, and is usually the type of behaviour and trait specifically found in closet investors

 

what the ---? i'm not trying to be an a--hole, but this statement really doesn't make any sense.

 

You're saying that people who believe there's going to be a crash are saying they are immune because they are "collecting" and thus feel they are actually immune is then the real kind of "fanboy".

 

I think you're reading a different thread than I am. The proponents of the crash theory are stating that there is a heavy indication that many high level CGC books are at prices and multiples that are unrealistic for their actual value. When people realize this, there will be a drop in price and those that bought at this significant crest will be faced then with a precipitous drop in value.

 

When using the term "fanboy" it's meant to imply that some people are denying certain trends in the current market, comparisons to past collectible trends and the theory that the books are being inflated beyond their actual value. They are doing so because they don't want to psychologically believe it could happen to something they love and have become heavily invested both financially and emotionally.

 

I have never, ever heard Gene or anyone else say they are IMMUNE to the crash. The crash is an economic product, something that will happen to an entire market and thus no one's books are immune. It will happen or it won't. But the question is who will be impacted by it. how many people have a significant amount of money tied up in high dollar books that they won't be able to get or won't be able to get out nearly what they paid for it.

 

I seriously doubt crash theorists are really "closet investors". In fact, what they are stating is that you should not be investing in comics. what is the logic that leads you to believe these people are really "investors"?

 

Basically, you've claimed that people are tucking their arsenal of indicators behind a facade of collecting, and to me, this whole statement seems convoluted and confused.

 

Go back and reread this statement. Maybe I wasn't clear on what exactly you said... but i've read it a few times and to be quite honest it just seems like you're either conveying a thought very poorly, or your thought is just not in step with the actual words stated by the people stating them.

[joe_collector]

where were all those speculators duing the mid 1990s, when books could be bought at a fraction of the cost - when the economy was good, and no one seemed to care about comics?

 

I say this and all I get back are blank stares. Most of the Johnny-come-lately's don't understand how or why they were drawn back to the CGC web, and how this relates to the inevitable boom/bust.

 

The smart money was buying right after the last crash, and although profits were a foregone conclusion, they did got a spice of luck with the CGC Money Machine.

 

Just ask our resident Forum Legend.

[FFB]

Did high grade gold, silver, and bronze keys crash along with the rest of the market in the mid-1990s? I know that moderns took a real hit and never really recovered (though Valiant seems to be making a pretty nice comeback for a company that is no longer publishing), and I think that the sheer number of copies of books printed in the early 90s that are still in existence will ensure that this is the case for a long time. What happened to silver and gold and bronze age keys? I wasn't watching at the time, so I don't know. Does anyone have historical price guide info? I'm not talking about bits of anecdotal evidence (i.e., "my shop had ASM #129 in NM for $5 and it didn't sell"), but if anyone has information about a severe, marketwide decline in gold, silver, and bronze keys, that would be interesting to see.

 

where were all those speculators duing the mid 1990s, when books could be bought at a fraction of the cost - when the economy was good, and no one seemed to care about comics?

 

I say this and all I get back are blank stares. Most of the Johnny-come-lately's don't understand how or why they were drawn back to the CGC web, and how this relates to the inevitable boom/bust.

 

The smart money was buying right after the last crash, and although profits were a foregone conclusion, they did got a spice of luck with the CGC Money Machine.

 

Just ask our resident Forum Legend.

[joe_collector]

Did high grade gold, silver, and bronze keys crash along with the rest of the market in the mid-1990s?

 

Of course they did; anytime there's a crash, the bad news feeling filters down and many just give up all types of collecting, not just Moderns. Ask some of the old-timers on here what kind of prices they were paying for books back then, compared to now.

 

I'm ticked at how many $20-$40 NM copies of ASM 129 I let go, not to mention the low-$$$ VF to VF ones. I probably could have bought all the Bronze keys in 1996 for around the money I currently have in my wallet.

 

Once CGC appeared, the speculators all came back and it was like someone automatically tripled, then quadrupled, then.... the price of virtually all comics overnight.

 

I can remember when CGC first started up and NM copies of Hulk 181 going for $200-$300, then someone got back a CGC 9.6 and it sold for $1800. It was like ringing the dinner bell for specs, and overnight, NM raw Hulk 181 prices were at $500 and climbing.

[goldust40]

I already asked JC this question in another thread after he used ASM 129 as an example of market deflation in the mid 90s. To be fair, documentation regarding the "crash" from this era would be difficult to find as OS and all dealers would never have undermined buyer and market confidence by declaiming that prices were indeed through the floor.

 

If any dealer who was present in that era would like to candidly pipe up about this, they'd be most welcome. Paging Blazing Bob.

[comicwiz]

what the ---? i'm not trying to be an a--hole, but this statement really doesn't make any sense.

 

You're saying that people who believe there's going to be a crash are saying they are immune because they are "collecting" and thus feel they are actually immune is then the real kind of "fanboy".

 

I think you're reading a different thread than I am. The proponents of the crash theory are stating that there is a heavy indication that many high level CGC books are at prices and multiples that are unrealistic for their actual value. When people realize this, there will be a drop in price and those that bought at this significant crest will be faced then with a precipitous drop in value.

 

When using the term "fanboy" it's meant to imply that some people are denying certain trends in the current market, comparisons to past collectible trends and the theory that the books are being inflated beyond their actual value. They are doing so because they don't want to psychologically believe it could happen to something they love and have become heavily invested both financially and emotionally.

 

I have never, ever heard Gene or anyone else say they are IMMUNE to the crash. The crash is an economic product, something that will happen to an entire market and thus no one's books are immune. It will happen or it won't. But the question is who will be impacted by it. how many people have a significant amount of money tied up in high dollar books that they won't be able to get or won't be able to get out nearly what they paid for it.

 

I seriously doubt crash theorists are really "closet investors". In fact, what they are stating is that you should not be investing in comics. what is the logic that leads you to believe these people are really "investors"?

 

Basically, you've claimed that people are tucking their arsenal of indicators behind a facade of collecting, and to me, this whole statement seems convoluted and confused.

 

Go back and reread this statement. Maybe I wasn't clear on what exactly you said... but i've read it a few times and to be quite honest it just seems like you're either conveying a thought very poorly, or your thought is just not in step with the actual words stated by the people stating them.

 

My comments span, to a larger extent, the volumes of crash theories, and deluge of back-and-forth insults and criticisms from both sides. They are comments making specific reference to the teflon-coated opinions of the crash and burn specialists and their theories. The often dogmatic instistence on amorphous principles about an impending crash is taxing, but can become an excercise in futility when it degenerates into nothing more than a reliving of playground name-calling.

 

For what its worth, I really don't care, and its seems that most of the theories are being advanced with a fair degree of predetermination -- that a crash will occur -- and that it will just be a matter of time, and not anywhere near the same level of evidence to support those claims.

 

The kind of retort I've seen used by its supporters until now (and not exclusive to this thread alone) -- is to loosely typify people who are opposed to such theories and blindly categorize them all as "fanboys". You want to point fingers at addressing an opinion poorly, then start with with the comic crash heretics, because it is their theories that are filled with about as much holes as a sieve. I personally DON'T care much for the condescending nature of the term fanboy, and its use in such discussions, especially when all people are trying to do is contribute to the discussion with their opinions.

[joe_collector]

I already asked JC this question in another thread after he used ASM 129 as an example of market deflation in the mid 90s.

 

Hey, I collect Bronze, so I naturally bought and followed Bronze. I also know greggy bought a lot of NM Silver for fractions of what it is going for now, and less than it was in 1992.

[Rip]

Areas of Gold Silver and Bronze all got hit. I remember losing some money in the gold era. I'm not saying that ALL books across the board went down in value, but many did. Hulk 181 and ASM 129 were especially singled out as slow sellers. I'll see if I can find some info....

[goldust40]

I already asked JC this question in another thread after he used ASM 129 as an example of market deflation in the mid 90s.

 

Hey, I collect Bronze, so I naturally bought and followed Bronze. I also know greggy bought a lot of NM Silver for fractions of what it is going for now, and less than it was in 1992.

 

How much less?

 

Bronze was nowhere in 1994. I appreciate that NM Silver was going for fractions of what it's going for now, that's fair enough. But that's more of a reflection on the current market boom than what occurred ten years ago. Prices on (genuine) NM early to mid SIlver Age would've been double guide in many cases - that was how things were. Compared to now, that is cheap of course.

 

No-one could've predicted the absurd multiples being paid for common S.A. items back then, either before, during or after the '90s "bust". That's because we now have something that didn't really factor that much back then - obssesion in the marketplace with degrees of NM or MT. My contention is that the market back then plummeted for moderns and most late Silver, whilst prices remained static for early Silver and G.A. in HG. Mid grade went down too.

[towards2112]

With the proviso that ya'll understand that I no longer own a brick and mortar....

I haven't seen it all, ....but....

If anyone else here is old enough to remember the black and white indy

craze of the late 70's early 80's BIG build up for just about any

indy press B&W, lots of "on the wall" price hikes, rapidly. One day

a $3 book, three days later a $7 asking price, by the end of summer

a $25 book. Then somewhere around '86 B&W became passe'.

The late '80's brought us all back on the wagon with the new IMAGE,

the Batman movie, five million copies of SPIDERMAN, six million

copies of SPAWN, six million copies of X-MEN.....then the speculators

found out they couldn't sell their 200 copies of SPAWN # 1 at a profit.

Something similar happened to Valiant [with all due respect to Valiantman],

Around 1993 I was extremely tired of the retailer's bellcurve. Trying to

figure out what the next hot item was going to be, or if I should try to

keep Ironman 55 in stock, or if I thought Ironfist 14 was the next big item.

[!@#%^&^] me sold an unopened box of Uncanny Xmen 266 for 'cost'!!!!

 

The fellow running the LCS here isn't stocking much. At least in my opinion.

He recently moved into a signifigantly smaller shop, from 1800 sqft down to

what is probably a 750 sqft store front. He has around 20 long boxes of

back stock, 3 of my old Marvel racks that I had sold to the previous owner,

and not more than 5 or 6 copies of each recent top 100 issue. He seems to

be surviving, earning his total income from the shop and is a fairly nice

gent, but I certainly would not want to try to deal with the day to day

decisions he is attempting. Given the vastly smaller market for new

issues that I've been observing the past few years, perhaps the low

print runs currently being issued will be tomorrows rarities. I think this

subject has been bandied around here in the past.

And I'm also pleased to see that this debate hasn't resulted in a 16 page

flame war.

Kudos folks.

[comicartfan]

Where did I say that greed or fear was an issue ?

 

You didn't - I did. The sooner you recognize that emotion and psychology drives all markets, the sooner you'll see that the comic market can be compared to other collectibles and, in fact, to all other competitive markets. Don't presume that these comparisons are, in your words, "insane" or "unfair". Sure, there are differences, but they are certainly NOT invalid comparisons. This is exactly what i was saying. Taking the "nostalgia " part and how that applies to comics. It seems we agree on this point.

 

 

And what is the comment "stupid to a dyed-in the wool fanboy comment supposed to mean ?!

 

It means you're denigrated my analysis as "stupid" (your word, not mine), because you can't separate your love of comics from an objective analysis. Perhaps I didn't make my point correctly on this : i will try and clarify - I wasn't calling the comparision it's self stupid, but the mentality that drives stock prices up or down (mainly gossip and rumours being applied to comics. I am not saying it doesn't happen, and when it does, you get the insane prices ...especially on moderns I love comics too, but I don't harbor any illusions about their present or future value. You may disagree with me, but don't call my analysis "stupid", "unfair" or "insane" if you can't see past your fanboy rose-colored glasses. I wasn't trying to call anyone stupid or have their opinion regarded as such, just because I disagree with them. Nor is it personal

 

 

Did you EVER think while you are up on your soapbox that the rest of us enjoy comics/art/collectibles too ? That the prices being paid is just competition?!

 

I have no doubt that a lot of people do just buy what they like with discretionary funds and are not counting on continued price appreciation. However, not everyone is like that. Just look at the Boards today - some new threads this morning on "should I invest in Gold or Silver" and "is SA JLA a good investment". I know people in this hobby who are in over their heads. I know people, some who are supporting families, who have gone to extremes to support their buying habits.

 

As for competition, I couldn't care less. I'm virtually done with collecting slabs - I'm not posting on this subject so I can save a few hundred bucks at most. I'm practically cured of "high grade disease". And it's a great feeling - I'm happy just buying the Masterworks or TPBs and pocketing the difference in cash. I expect that I'll continue to downsize my slabbed collection over time as well.

 

 

And another thing...why are you so motivated to be correct ?

 

Better than to be motivated to be wrong, no?

 

Contrary to what you may believe, 95% of the Boards does not hate and disagree with me. I think it's pretty much split down the middle - I've received lots of PMs from people who don't always vocalize their support here - the "silent majority" as they were. I think the points that I bring up are interesting and thought-provoking, whether or not you agree with me. There are people who disagree with me and will still attest to that...some have even testified to that effect in the past. Yet, I know that a lot of people would like to see me just curl up in a dark corner somewhere and disappear - why is that? Do they not like real debate? Would they rather the Boards be one long, non-stop circle jerk about admiring Captain_Tripps' registry and recommending which books may spike due to movie hype (i.e., nothing of real substance)? I think a lot of people are too emotionally and/or financially vested in the comics market and feel insecure and threatened when they hear things they don't want to hear. I have thousands invested in comics, not as much as some, more than others and I am not the least bit threatend by what is said by anyone. If i was , i wouldn't be coverd with Super Hero tattoos. I don;t have my retirement or my son's college wrapped up in comics.

 

Are there too many "Crash" threads? Well, possibly, BUT it's not like other topics don't get recycled JUST as frequently and it's not like there aren't even more "Is this a good investment?" threads out there. Furthermore, there has clearly been an influx of new members to the Boards for whom this thread, for example, may have been their first such Crash thread. The Crash threads just tend to get people more riled up, so they remember them more. And is that necessarily a bad thing? Again, most of these threads are standalone, so it's not like anyone is forcing anyone like DavidKing623 to read these... True, I don't

 

Gene

[Foolkiller]

but can become an excercise in futility when it degenerates into nothing more than a reliving of playground name-calling.

 

this part I agree with.

 

 

You want to point fingers at addressing an opinion poorly, then start with with the comic crash heretics, because it is their theories that are filled with about as much holes as a sieve.

 

actually, despite the verbiage throughout your post it amounts to one thing: you are doing what most people who are trying to refute the crash do, you state an opinion with zero data and facts. I credit Gene for presenting information to back up his position. But, you are entitled to your opinion of course, and you may very well be right, there will be no crash, no correction and no problems in the future for the comic book high grade market. You say there are holes in their theories? I agree. About as many holes as in those opinions who believe there will be no crash. The difference? Gene supports his position with data and facts.

 

personally DON'T care much for the condescending nature of the term fanboy, and its use in such discussions

 

this part i agree with too.

[FlyingDonut]

I've made this offer before, and I'll do it again. Give me five grand. I'll guarantee you the risk free rate of return (whatever the six month T-Bill rate is), and you get everything above that up to eight grand in six months.

 

Everything OVER eight grand I get to keep. I'll do it solely flipping books. I'll happily and merrily make my cash this way.

 

FD - help me out here:

 

you are saying that if I give you five grand you will GUARANTEE me the 6 month t-bill. Everything up to $8K in 6 months you give to me, everything post $8K you keep? So, if I understand you - you will give me risk free roughly 1% annualized and the potential for 120% annualized return??

 

Dude, why don't you just take out a home equity loan or run up your credit card debt a bit? You could get a nice home equity loan for a lot more than the $5K that you are asking for or you could just get some cash from your credit card. Even CASH from your credit card I have never heard of them taking more than 25% interest . . .

 

 

DAM

 

I don't want to take a home equity loan or take cash from my credit card, I'd rather play with YOUR money, but yes, I guarantee the 1% annualized and the potential for the 120%.

 

If you give me five grand, in six months I'll give you up to eight grand, and I'll keep everything above that. I incur essentially no risk, and have your money to play with.

[14 of spades]

I don't want to take a home equity loan or take cash from my credit card, I'd rather play with YOUR money,

 

maybe my sarcasm detector isn't working - but is this offer really serious?

 

do u really think we'd give u OUR MONEY if u aren't willing to invest ur OWN MONEY??

[Illiterati-migration]

I don't want to take a home equity loan or take cash from my credit card, I'd rather play with YOUR money,

 

maybe my sarcasm detector isn't working - but is this offer really serious?

 

do u really think we'd give u OUR MONEY if u aren't willing to invest ur OWN MONEY??

 

When did u start typing like a 14-y.o. grrl?

[FlyingDonut]

I don't want to take a home equity loan or take cash from my credit card, I'd rather play with YOUR money,

 

maybe my sarcasm detector isn't working - but is this offer really serious?

 

do u really think we'd give u OUR MONEY if u aren't willing to invest ur OWN MONEY??

 

I am willing to invest my money, and do with great regularity. Like I said, I'd rather play with your money.

[dam60]

I've made this offer before, and I'll do it again. Give me five grand. I'll guarantee you the risk free rate of return (whatever the six month T-Bill rate is), and you get everything above that up to eight grand in six months.

 

Everything OVER eight grand I get to keep. I'll do it solely flipping books. I'll happily and merrily make my cash this way.

 

FD - help me out here:

 

you are saying that if I give you five grand you will GUARANTEE me the 6 month t-bill. Everything up to $8K in 6 months you give to me, everything post $8K you keep? So, if I understand you - you will give me risk free roughly 1% annualized and the potential for 120% annualized return??

 

Dude, why don't you just take out a home equity loan or run up your credit card debt a bit? You could get a nice home equity loan for a lot more than the $5K that you are asking for or you could just get some cash from your credit card. Even CASH from your credit card I have never heard of them taking more than 25% interest . . .

 

 

DAM

 

I don't want to take a home equity loan or take cash from my credit card, I'd rather play with YOUR money, but yes, I guarantee the 1% annualized and the potential for the 120%.

 

If you give me five grand, in six months I'll give you up to eight grand, and I'll keep everything above that. I incur essentially no risk, and have your money to play with.

 

FD - what will you collateralize the loan with? feel free to PM me . .. .

[14 of spades]

 

[Norrin_Radd]

Highly unlikely. Besides, not every coin crashed in price (only the drek).