1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[jediknight]

OK I've gone through a portion of this thread. But how can we be certain that cgc comics will identically follow the path of other collectibles? Aren't comics inherently more fun and inspiring then say stamps, coins and cards? I mean you can only look at a piece of metal for so long but the lasting excitement that comics bring is so very profound. Have you ever seen a Paramount movie about a coin? In contrast we are bombarded by movies about superheroes that inspire like any other film. These films are fetching a hundred million to hundreds of millions a piece with no sign of abetting. Do you really think X3 or Spiderman 3 are going to bomb next year? You've been to comic conventions haven't you? They are zany and crazy and fun as helllll! Go into a coin convention and I guarantee it is like parousing a library. Grave yard city man. When I go to conventions what do I see? I see kids, teens, college age and young adults, old and young alike. Go to a coin convention and you won't find any substantial showing from the youth sector and isn't a large youth showing a sign of a continuingly bright future? Maybe the recession we are observing is just that a recession. Are there not signs everywhere in the comic world that the love of comics will not end? Of this I'm sure, 2006 comic conventions will be heavily populated and explosively entertaining, and superhereo movies will continue one after the other and bring in millions of dollars. And hey, we might also see a trend developing where most cgc comics listed online are accompanied by a mighty pair of bazongas!

[the blob]

jeez, bass brothers, hunt brothers, whatever. i was a kid back then, it's amazing i even remember it at all.

[the blob]

actually, i'd be concerned that the slabbed sports card market is a better analogy.

[Aman619]

I thought it was the Doobie Brothers! dammm

[greggy]

Are you trying to relate Bre-X eo CGC??? Substitue Gold for comics and Bre-X for CGC and the Vancouver stock Exchange for the comic industry.

 

The VSE is a notorious haven for stock scams.

[Norrin_Radd]

Are you trying to relate Bre-X eo CGC??? Substitue Gold for comics and Bre-X for CGC and the Vancouver stock Exchange for the comic industry.

 

The VSE is a notorious haven for stock scams.

Yup. Those darn Canucks again.

 

Anyone remember the great tout stock of the mid-80's...... Tillex? That was another VSE special.

[greggy]

Are you trying to relate Bre-X eo CGC??? Substitue Gold for comics and Bre-X for CGC and the Vancouver stock Exchange for the comic industry.

 

The VSE is a notorious haven for stock scams.

Yup. Those darn Canucks again.

 

Anyone remember the great tout stock of the mid-80's...... Tillex? That was another VSE special.

You probably fell for it so

[14 of spades]

OK I've gone through a portion of this thread. But how can we be certain that cgc comics will identically follow the path of other collectibles? Aren't comics inherently more fun and inspiring then say stamps, coins and cards? I mean you can only look at a piece of metal for so long but the lasting excitement that comics bring is so very profound. Have you ever seen a Paramount movie about a coin? In contrast we are bombarded by movies about superheroes that inspire like any other film. These films are fetching a hundred million to hundreds of millions a piece with no sign of abetting. Do you really think X3 or Spiderman 3 are going to bomb next year? You've been to comic conventions haven't you? They are zany and crazy and fun as helllll! Go into a coin convention and I guarantee it is like parousing a library. Grave yard city man. When I go to conventions what do I see? I see kids, teens, college age and young adults, old and young alike. Go to a coin convention and you won't find any substantial showing from the youth sector and isn't a large youth showing a sign of a continuingly bright future? Maybe the recession we are observing is just that a recession. Are there not signs everywhere in the comic world that the love of comics will not end? Of this I'm sure, 2006 comic conventions will be heavily populated and explosively entertaining, and superhereo movies will continue one after the other and bring in millions of dollars. And hey, we might also see a trend developing where most cgc comics listed online are accompanied by a mighty pair of bazongas!

 

i think most of us here understand your gist, but u can't obviously compare your love for comics and somehow deem it greater than a coinee's love for coins, because YOU think comics are inherently more interesting than coins. the bias involved should be pretty apparent - i don't think it needs to be explained. \

 

gene mentioned an example earlier in the thread about the greatest amount paid for a coin - and it made the greatest amount ever paid for a comic sound like monopoly money.

[jkrk]

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Yup. Those darn Canucks again.

 

Anyone remember the great tout stock of the mid-80's...... Tillex? That was another VSE special.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

You probably fell for it so

 

In the early eighties I was trading quite a number of Miners. Early on someone related to me Mark Twain's definition of a gold mine.

 

 

'A mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing over it.'

Incidentally, Twain had a personal investment maxim: 'I never spotted an opportunity until it ceased to be one.'

 

 

 

This must have something to do with comics?

[Bronty]

And if you don't think that the internet protects or cushions against a decline, I say YOU'RE WRONG. It does just that by opening up the consumer base to a cross-section of collectors 'round the world, moderating the effects of a recession here, a big convention there, a new collection surfacing over there, etc.,.

 

My dear Banner, I'm afraid you're still wrong. On balance, the structural changes you have cited greatly increase, not decrease, the likelihood of a severe boom/bust cycle. I'm sorry, but a few Brits and Frenchies armed with some pounds and euros do not even come close to outweighing the overriding dynamics that I and CentaurMan have cited.

 

Gene

 

I certainly haven't read this entire thread - only a couple of pages - but I have to agree w/Gene here.

 

Think of it this way - sure, ebay opens up the consumer base to a cross section of collectors around the world, but more importantly it opens up the supply base around the world. Every collector big and small can dump his collection on ebay in practically no time. Some kid from Dakar can dump his 9.6 new teen titans 2 on ebay and it can affect the price in Michigan. So... if a high grade crash starts, and those collectors around the world start panicking about the losses they are staring at, they can ALL dump their stuff on ebay, exacerbating the price drop in a BIG way.

 

Gene's quoting economic theory, and frankly I take theory with a grain of salt, but I think this is one case where the theory is a pretty damn good predictor of what will actually happen.

[drbanner]

And if you don't think that the internet protects or cushions against a decline, I say YOU'RE WRONG. It does just that by opening up the consumer base to a cross-section of collectors 'round the world, moderating the effects of a recession here, a big convention there, a new collection surfacing over there, etc.,.

 

My dear Banner, I'm afraid you're still wrong. On balance, the structural changes you have cited greatly increase, not decrease, the likelihood of a severe boom/bust cycle. I'm sorry, but a few Brits and Frenchies armed with some pounds and euros do not even come close to outweighing the overriding dynamics that I and CentaurMan have cited.

 

Gene

 

I certainly haven't read this entire thread - only a couple of pages - but I have to agree w/Gene here.

 

Think of it this way - sure, ebay opens up the consumer base to a cross section of collectors around the world, but more importantly it opens up the supply base around the world. Every collector big and small can dump his collection on ebay in practically no time. Some kid from Dakar can dump his 9.6 new teen titans 2 on ebay and it can affect the price in Michigan. So... if a high grade crash starts, and those collectors around the world start panicking about the losses they are staring at, they can ALL dump their stuff on ebay, exacerbating the price drop in a BIG way.

 

Gene's quoting economic theory, and frankly I take theory with a grain of salt, but I think this is one case where the theory is a pretty damn good predictor of what will actually happen.

 

Gene's well-thought out dissertations on economic theory certainly make sense, and outside of the comic book hobby I have taken his advice to heart when managing my real money. However, the rapid, exponential decline in comic book prices as described above (note that the quoted conversation took place over a year and a half ago) has not occurred, despite many (including Gene) here believing that TGC is already here.

 

A Grand Teton-ish chart similar to the infamous Coin Crash graph would illustrate that theory to have played out, not the Smokey Mountain-ish graph GPA provided us in "Are Bronze prices tanking?" thread. We'll see what the future holds...

 

[Norrin_Radd]

A Grand Teton-ish chart similar to the infamous Coin Crash graph would illustrate that theory to have played out, not the Smokey Mountain-ish graph GPA provided us in "Are Bronze prices tanking?" thread. We'll see what the future holds...

 

 

 

Uh. What about Gold? Especially lower grade early DC superhero Gold.

[joe_collector]

Incidentally, Twain had a personal investment maxim: 'I never spotted an opportunity until it ceased to be one.'

 

That's a very good adage for the comic book biz. I can remember blabbing with various EBay contacts about the current prices, good sources for HG books, steals, deals, etc. circa 1998-99 and the stuff you could buy was insane. Virtually all keys were depressed, since the market was in a post-crash downswing, and the profits you could make by buying then, and selling a few years later were astronomical.

 

I bought a ton, and could have bought more, but as I am a collector it's staying in my collection.

 

But where were all the "true collectors" then? Where were all the people who now pay 20X Guide for a key when that same book was selling for 10% Guide or lower? Where were all these "serious investors" before CGC and the movies put the spotlight back (temporarily) on comic books as investment vehicles?

 

I think the answer is pretty clear.

[comicwiz]

Incidentally, Twain had a personal investment maxim: 'I never spotted an opportunity until it ceased to be one.'

 

That's a very good adage for the comic book biz. I can remember blabbing with various EBay contacts about the current prices, good sources for HG books, steals, deals, etc. circa 1998-99 and the stuff you could buy was insane. Virtually all keys were depressed, since the market was in a post-crash downswing, and the profits you could make by buying then, and selling a few years later were astronomical.

 

I bought a ton, and could have bought more, but as I am a collector it's staying in my collection.

 

But where were all the "true collectors" then? Where were all the people who now pay 20X Guide for a key when that same book was selling for 10% Guide or lower? Where were all these "serious investors" before CGC and the movies put the spotlight back (temporarily) on comic books as investment vehicles?

 

I think the answer is pretty clear.

 

Sure. But when we apply Twains adage to the modern day, it falls short in so many ways.

 

Maybe in the Twain heyday, chopping down the trees in his yard to build a raft to court "the girl next door" is how best to apply his way of thinking. The tree ceases to exist after its chopped down, and an opportunity created by building a raft -- but the real investment is found in the time spent towards pursuing the woman that may/may not turn out to be the girl of his dreams.

 

These days, you throw a profile on a singles site and its like bait out in the open waters occupied mostly by the morally bankrupt.

 

From an economic investment standpoint, modern-day opportunities can kick-start after they've been buried for years. Others flourish out of relative obscurity. But the hype marketing still drives so much of the influence that brainwashes the consumer into believing that they're really on to something big. The latter wins out, and the more money you pump into the hype, the more likely you are to succeed. This applies not only to manufactured collectibles markets, but translates even stronger in the manufactured material goods markets.

[Timulty]

Right now, I believe some overvaluation in the comics industry is happening. I remember how bad it got in the late 80's(mostly modern drek going for horrendous prices). Taking into account inflation, supply and demand, market factors etc. comics will be hitting a plateau in the next few years.

 

If you are planning to buy HG Gold Silver and Bronze and are counting on a high return, I believe you are mistaken. The gains have been made already. Do you expect them to hold value? Well, got to be honest, if the value drops it won't be much (no more than 10%).

 

Personally, I buy comics because, I enjoy the cover artwork, stories and the nostalgia. Buying for investment is secondary.

 

Do I think that collecting comics will go the way of collecting coins? Nope. That's an apple and orange issue.

 

Metal objects are more durable. Paper has a finite lifetime. So, supply, will always be low for comics. Thus more collectible.

[joe_collector]

Do I think that collecting comics will go the way of collecting coins? Nope. That's an apple and orange issue.

 

I agree, and it's far more applicable to the graded sportscard market.

[drbanner]

Uh. What about Gold? Especially lower grade early DC superhero Gold.

 

There are no graphs for gold. You'll have to visit the thread for the details on how the books were chosen, but the books comprising the "index" for silver thru modern are for the most commonly sold books for each era.

 

Here's the list for silver:

 

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #1 CGC 3.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #1 CGC 4.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #14 CGC 4.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #14 CGC 6.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #14 CGC 7.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #14 CGC 8.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #19 CGC 8.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #22 CGC 8.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #34 CGC 9.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #39 CGC 8.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #59 CGC 8.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #62 CGC 9.2

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #62 CGC 9.4

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #64 CGC 9.0

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #64 CGC 9.2

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #64 CGC 9.4

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #66 CGC 8.5

Amazing Spider-Man, The (1963) #68 CGC 9.2

Avengers, The (1963) #4 CGC 7.0

Avengers, The (1963) #4 CGC 8.0

Avengers, The (1963) #58 CGC 9.4

Captain America (1968-1996) #100 CGC 8.0

Captain America (1968-1996) #100 CGC 9.4

Captain America (1968-1996) #109 CGC 9.4

Captain America (1968-1996) #111 CGC 8.0

Daredevil (1964-1998) #1 CGC 3.0

Daredevil (1964-1998) #1 CGC 3.5

Daredevil (1964-1998) #1 CGC 4.0

Daredevil (1964-1998) #1 CGC 6.0

Fantastic Four (1961) #44 CGC 9.2

Fantastic Four (1961) #48 CGC 5.5

Fantastic Four (1961) #48 CGC 7.0

Fantastic Four (1961) #48 CGC 8.5

Fantastic Four (1961) #48 CGC 9.4

Fantastic Four (1961) #48 CGC 9.6

Fantastic Four (1961) #59 CGC 9.4

Fantastic Four (1961) #78 CGC 9.4

Heroes, Inc. Presents Cannon (1969-1976) #nn CGC 9.8

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 6.5

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 8.0

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 8.5

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 9.0

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 9.2

Incredible Hulk, The (1962-1999) #102 CGC 9.4

Iron Man (1968-1996) #1 CGC 7.0

Iron Man (1968-1996) #1 CGC 8.0

Iron Man (1968-1996) #1 CGC 8.5

Iron Man (1968-1996) #1 CGC 9.0

Iron Man (1968-1996) #1 CGC 9.4

Iron Man (1968-1996) #2 CGC 9.2

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. (1968-1971) #1 CGC 9.0

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. (1968-1971) #1 CGC 9.2

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. (1968-1971) #1 CGC 9.4

Silver Surfer, The (1968-1982) #1 CGC 8.5

Silver Surfer, The (1968-1982) #2 CGC 9.0

Silver Surfer, The (1968-1982) #4 CGC 8.0

Silver Surfer, The (1968-1982) #4 CGC 9.0

Sub-Mariner, The (1968-1974) #1 CGC 9.0

Sub-Mariner, The (1968-1974) #1 CGC 9.2

Sub-Mariner, The (1968-1974) #1 CGC 9.4

Sub-Mariner, The (1968-1974) #2 CGC 9.4

Thor (1966-1996) #132 CGC 9.6

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #1 CGC 4.0

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #32 CGC 9.0

X-Men, The (1963-1981) #45 CGC 9.4

[Timulty]

Whoa, Tex no DC?

[drbanner]

Whoa, Tex no DC?

 

DC gets no love from the masses, only the few of us with good taste!

[Timulty]

DC Silver Age Horror, Showcase or Brave and Bold dude. Books. Everyone seems to love SA Marvels. Don't matter what [embarrassing lack of self control] title there is. Stan Lee can Excelsior himself.