1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[the blob]

so how much is my 1889-O in average condition worth? was my $3 well spent? just seemed like a fun thing to buy. something for my kid to play with in 10 years.

 

and while we're at it, what about my 1944 dime? i can't make out the mint mark though. could be a D. i got that as change when i bought a hot dog.

[the blob]

ok, about $14-$18...maybe i'll sell it

 

oh well, no more $3 morgans on ebay. seems they all start at about $9.99.

[comicworm]

One thing you forget to mention (and I implore you to do some research instead of posting already printed articles with little or no bearing on the comic market) is that even graded coins still carry a premium! That $3 MORGAN you talk about-if it is graded in MS-64 condition-it will easily sell for close to $50 on eBay! A lot of people here think that certified collectibles will lose their appeal over time. While it is true thyat prices may not remain this strong foreve (and no I am not talking crash), people will still seek out and be willing to pay a premium for certified collectibles! Look whats going on Action Figure Authority in the toy collecting field. Is a vintage carded Star Wars figure really worth 5 times as much as a non-graded counterpart in the same condition? No, but it will always be worth more than the ungraded version.

 

Same is true in coins!

 

Same as in comics!

 

So those hoping that some sort of crash comes our way-need to study a little bit more in other markests! The coin graded market never really crashed. It was frenzy brought down by over-speculation-then the market corrected itself and coins are still attracting attention and "fair" prices are being paid-even on the graded common dreck.

 

With comics, those who are investing in high grade copies, most will eventually go down. But you cannot compare coins to comics simply because of the difference in production values. To this day. I can go to my local back (and I do) and get MORGAN dollars in great condition! I certify the ones in MS-64 or better and sell them on eBay! I do get at least $40, usually $50+ for each coinc! Not bad for a market that everyone would leave you believe crashed!

[joe_collector]

Of course the graded coin market crashed, and so did graded sportscards.

 

All this "over speculated" and "market corrected" stuff is just BS to cloud over the fact that lots of people who INITIALLY bought into the market lost their shirts.. and many times houses and cars. The markets crashed, and crashed hard, regardless of what Morgan dollars you can sell for $50 now.

 

That is what we're talking about here, the INITIAL RUSH to buy into an emerging graded market, or the exact position the CGC buyer is in today. That's when the meltdown really hurts, for those who paid market rates and then have to sell at 50% market or lower.

 

Some of the graded coin losses were staggering, with many people buying hundreds of thousands of dollars in graded coins, and only coming out with a few thousand upon resale in the 1990's. We're talking losses in the 95% and up range.

 

For a bit of history, the graded coin market started in 1985, while CGC ramped up circa 2000 or so. Big difference in where each is in the graded collectibles lifespan. In 1989-91, the coin market suffered a MONSTROUS CRASH - everyone knows that and it was reported on in all the major trades and investment mags. It also didn't get better through the 1990's, and prices continued to fall and various "coin investment" dealers went belly-up or were repeatedly sued.

 

Does that mean that guys like comicworm might be able to sift through the wreckage and find coins (that sold for $1,000) that he can now buy for $100 and flip for $250? Sure, but I wouldn't want to be the sucker sitting on a box of those same coins, bought for $1K each.

[krazykat-migration]

So no one thinks the $25,000 paid for the ASM #19 in 9.9 @ Heritage by that British fella was a great buy ? .

 

KK

[Alex DeLarge-migration]

So no one thinks the $25,000 paid for the ASM #19 in 9.9 @ Heritage by that British fella was a great buy ? .

 

KK

 

If I was lashing out that kinda money at present, it would be for an Original EC Cover of some description...certainly not on any slabbed book in the current climate...but hey..that's just me

[krazykat-migration]

So no one thinks the $25,000 paid for the ASM #19 in 9.9 @ Heritage by that British fella was a great buy ? .

 

KK

 

If I was lashing out that kinda money at present, it would be for an Original EC Cover of some description...certainly not on any slabbed book in the current climate...but hey..that's just me

 

You collect OA Alex ?

 

KK

[Alex DeLarge-migration]

So no one thinks the $25,000 paid for the ASM #19 in 9.9 @ Heritage by that British fella was a great buy ? .

 

KK

 

If I was lashing out that kinda money at present, it would be for an Original EC Cover of some description...certainly not on any slabbed book in the current climate...but hey..that's just me

 

You collect OA Alex ?

 

KK

 

Absolutely...but my collection is very very humble

[krazykat-migration]

OA is the future Alex,...and I dont mean thousand of $$$$,...I honestly believe MILLIONS $$$,...especially Classic Silver Age Super Hero Covers,.....

 

Early Large Art ASM,....

 

Early Large Art X-men.....

 

we shall see.....

 

KK

[originalisbest]

joe_collector, those who bought too much into the hype of truly COMMON coins graded in slabs lost their shirts, if they bought into the hype. Mainly this was folks who thought trading in coins is as liquid and straightforward as trading in stocks. A whole lot more seasoned collectors realized the hype for what it was, the truly common stuff for what it was, and never got burnt. Some quietly socked away the better stuff, that's soared since. And then there's the crowd to whom anything less than 5k a coin is chumpsville, too bad I'm not one of them...

 

Anyhoo, given that the overall health of the coin market has never been better than the last 5 years or so, you have to realize that markets ebb and flow. The only real way to make a guaranteed, consistent return in coins is to become adept at buying like a dealer for "X" and selling for "Y", in the short term. If you're not trying to do this, there's nothing wrong with buying coins and enjoying them but, you need to keep in perspective what you can reasonably expect out of them.

[drbanner]

joe_collector, those who bought too much into the hype of truly COMMON coins graded in slabs lost their shirts, if they bought into the hype. Mainly this was folks who thought trading in coins is as liquid and straightforward as trading in stocks. A whole lot more seasoned collectors realized the hype for what it was, the truly common stuff for what it was, and never got burnt. Some quietly socked away the better stuff, that's soared since. And then there's the crowd to whom anything less than 5k a coin is chumpsville, too bad I'm not one of them...

 

Anyhoo, given that the overall health of the coin market has never been better than the last 5 years or so, you have to realize that markets ebb and flow. The only real way to make a guaranteed, consistent return in coins is to become adept at buying like a dealer for "X" and selling for "Y", in the short term. If you're not trying to do this, there's nothing wrong with buying coins and enjoying them but, you need to keep in perspective what you can reasonably expect out of them.

 

Exactly, buying modern 9.6 and better books in 2001-2004 was basically like buying Superman 75 or Howard the Duck #1 a month after they came out...while high grade vintage/scarce material continues to hold value.

[joe_collector]

A whole lot more seasoned collectors realized the hype for what it was, the truly common stuff for what it was, and never got burnt. Some quietly socked away the better stuff, that's soared since.

 

I just love reading this type of illusionary commentary, as it gives hope that the majority of non-Modern comics will continue to appreciate.

 

But you know as well as I do that the vast, vast, vast majority of graded coins circa 1985-1988 were overvalued due to speculation and virtually none of them increased in value from 1991-1998. Even fewer ever got back to previous market highs, especially when taking inflation into account.

 

You speak as if the "smart buyers" came out smelling like a rose, while the "stupid speculators" got burned, when in reality, everyone got burned by the monster coin crash in one way or another. Some of the largest and most experienced players went belly-up, and major dealers lost their businesses.

 

But if you did not take part in the stupidity of the 1980's and 90's, and then swooped in bargain-hunting around 1997-99 or so, then yes, you will have done quite well financially. ... Just as those who swoop in after the inevitable CGC crash, buy up the bargains at cut-rate prices, and then sell in 5-10 years after that, will do as well.

 

But again, we're now only 5 years into the CGC experience (roughly 1988-89 relative to coins) and even the most bullish coinee must see the writing on the wall.

[originalisbest]

Who are the "largest and most experienced players" that went belly-up, and the "major dealers" who lost their businesses at that time (1989-1992) in the coin market? I'd be interested in seeing you name names.

[the blob]

the thing is, prices have not really been jacked to speculation levels except for a few select 9.6ses and 9.8ses and some 9.4s. get below that and you're around guide for most of the books. if 9.0/9.2 had been selling at a premium, those days have passed for most books.

 

how does that translate to coins? Is your 9.0 SA book that now has trouble making guide like an MS64 coin? MS63? Were MS62 coins trading at wacky premiums in 1988?

 

there certainly hasn't been much of a bubble for nice attractive SA books in the 7.5 - 9.0 range and BA in the 9.0 - 9.4 range (a few exceptions with 9.4)

 

as it is you can get a lot of BA 9.6 slabs for under $50. most non-keys are in that range.

[comicworm]

Yes JC-you are correct most modern comics and common coins were over-valuated and were in seen to have unearned value.

 

However, the coin market suffered a correction, but I guess some would call it a crash (dfepending how much you lost or gained...hehehe...) . The problem that I have with discussing this topic with you-is that you were once the "great" comic investor who predicted a crash every week. Kinda like the boy who cried wolf too much....

 

I will always value what you have to say unlike other board members who somewhat shun you, but you should be last on the list to post on this thread....

[Bronty]

the thing is, prices have not really been jacked to speculation levels except for a few select 9.6ses and 9.8ses and some 9.4s. get below that and you're around guide for most of the books. if 9.0/9.2 had been selling at a premium, those days have passed for most books.

 

how does that translate to coins? Is your 9.0 SA book that now has trouble making guide like an MS64 coin? MS63? Were MS62 coins trading at wacky premiums in 1988?

 

there certainly hasn't been much of a bubble for nice attractive SA books in the 7.5 - 9.0 range and BA in the 9.0 - 9.4 range (a few exceptions with 9.4)

 

as it is you can get a lot of BA 9.6 slabs for under $50. most non-keys are in that range.

 

That's a pretty good point, really. I know nothing about the coin crash, but it does sound like it was a lot more far reaching than a comic crash would be. Worst case scenario I could see for comics would be a 50% price reduction across the board with 90% on speculator books. I think there's a fair amount of readers out there that would sustain that kind of a valuation, anyway. But I do think current guide on a lotta books is jacked up way beyond reason. Lots of pure shizz 70s books are 10, 15, 20 dollars in guide and really only sell for 3-4-5 bucks. I guess the percentage potential price 'crash' is dependent on what you're using as a reference point. On guide values, yeah there could be a 90% reduction in some cases, and certainly on speculator 9.6/9.8 books. But if you're using ebay values as your guide I think the most reduction one might see even in a really bad crash would be 50-60% of current ebay value (again except for the speculator modern 9.8s etc that would get killed, creamed, and killed again).

 

As a side note, I remember early on in the cgc craze a 9.8 wolverine mini #1 getting $700, and a spawn #1 getting a similar amount... it's those kind of books that will get the coin market reaming, for sure. Only a matter of time on those puppies, and in fact it's partly happened already.

[the blob]

yes, people have already figured out now, maybe for a few years, that those books aren't really so rare in 9.8. sure, selling at a premium over guide, but not that kind of premium. as for more generic moderns, slabbing is a money loosing proposition.

 

it isn't a crash unless we're talking about actual FMV, not OPG prices. OPG is irrelevant except as a vague reference point. yeah DD 168 9.8 may wind up ultimately being a $500-750 book, and not $2500-$3500 or whatever it sold for recently. is that a crash? sure, but about 4 people paid that kind of money for that 9.8 anyway. people who were buying 9.8 moderns right and left for $40-$50 have already lost their shirts.. heck, that was probably true 2 years ago. Last year I picked up a nice 9.8 early Allen Moore Swamp thing for $17, which included shipping, so, basically less than it would cost me to get it slabbed, even assuming the comic was free.

 

 

sure, there are NM BA books that guide for $15 that sell for $3, but I think that also has to do with perceived overgrading on ebay. those get a much better % of guide the more reputable a dealer who is selling it. and yes, there are some titles nobody cares about as well, but among most of the big titles, that's probably not true. there are buyers out there.

[joe_collector]

Who are the "largest and most experienced players" that went belly-up, and the "major dealers" who lost their businesses at that time (1989-1992) in the coin market? I'd be interested in seeing you name names.

 

Why are you hedging me into a 1989-92, when the floor dropped out from 1989-99 (pre-2000 bull market), a period I constantly refer to in my posts. The initial crash drives prices low, but it takes YEARS and YEARS after that to kill big dealers and collectors.

 

Oh yeah, you're trying to be funny.

 

P.S. Do you honestly know of NOT A SINGLE big dealer or collector who got out of the graded coin biz from 1989-2000? Seriously? If so, then I wonder if you even know what you're talking about.

 

My father was big into rare, vintage coins and he had a list of large mail order dealers he bought from that continually shrunk in the decade after the Big Crash. If you were actually buying back then, you'd already know this.

[joe_collector]

That's a pretty good point, really. I know nothing about the coin crash, but it does sound like it was a lot more far reaching than a comic crash would be.

 

After so many saps getting burned in the Coin and Sportscard Market Crashes, there does seem to be some hesitancy to really drive comic book prices sky-high. There is definitely rampant speculation, but as JP found out, some people have learned from past mistakes, and even the big money is hesitant.

 

So when the inevitable comic book crash does come, the 50% average market loss sounds about right, as opposed to the insane valuation drops in coins and sportscards, where literally entire collections became almost worthless overnight.

 

At the time, I remember one poor guy investing $500K into "slabbed vintage coins" and getting something like $25-30K back at the end of the day. Crazy stuff, and the guy wasn't buying crepe - overall prices just tanked, and if you HAD to sell, only the sharks were circling.

[Bronty]

yes, people have already figured out now, maybe for a few years, that those books aren't really so rare in 9.8. sure, selling at a premium over guide, but not that kind of premium. as for more generic moderns, slabbing is a money loosing proposition.

 

it isn't a crash unless we're talking about actual FMV, not OPG prices. OPG is irrelevant except as a vague reference point. yeah DD 168 9.8 may wind up ultimately being a $500-750 book, and not $2500-$3500 or whatever it sold for recently. is that a crash? sure, but about 4 people paid that kind of money for that 9.8 anyway. people who were buying 9.8 moderns right and left for $40-$50 have already lost their shirts.. heck, that was probably true 2 years ago. Last year I picked up a nice 9.8 early Allen Moore Swamp thing for $17, which included shipping, so, basically less than it would cost me to get it slabbed, even assuming the comic was free.

 

 

sure, there are NM BA books that guide for $15 that sell for $3, but I think that also has to do with perceived overgrading on ebay. those get a much better % of guide the more reputable a dealer who is selling it. and yes, there are some titles nobody cares about as well, but among most of the big titles, that's probably not true. there are buyers out there.

 

 

re OS the input for the crash math - yes, I agree, guides are fictional, but since we're using the coin market as a comparison, I brought it up since I'm not sure whether the 90% losses in coins were against guide or against fmv, although from the sounds of it, both

 

Agreed re NM BA books getting more from better dealers, but the point I'm making is that a lot of those shizz books that are guiding for 15, getting 10 from big dealers, and 5 from small dealers really have no business guiding for more than five or ten in the first place. Bob's jacked 'em up a buck or two a year to the point where the valuations aren't even close to reality anymore. And I'm not just talking about marvel and dc here. Let's talk about the pure crepe publisher books guiding at 15 - good luck to ANY dealer trying to get more than five bucks for some of that garbage. But that's a separate discussion - the flaws in the guide are too numerous to mention.