1985-1989 Coin Market = 2000-2004 Comic Market?

[comicworm]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ. SINCE DAY ONE I SAID LAW SCHOOL WAS PAID BY THE COMPANY! I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

SECOND, I DON'T LIKE THE WAY THE MARKET IS GOING. THE COMPANY I WORK FOR IS PAYING FOR MY SCHOOL! IF YOU GO BACK AND EVEN READ THE POSTS I POSTED 6 MONTHS AGO YOU WOULD KNOW THIS. AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE THE TIME TO BASH ME, DON'T YOU HAVE THE TIME TO GO BACK AND GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT?

[awe4one]

Cal

 

Jim

[Flaming_Telepath]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ. SINCE DAY ONE I SAID LAW SCHOOL WAS PAID BY THE COMPANY! I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

SECOND, I DON'T LIKE THE WAY THE MARKET IS GOING. THE COMPANY I WORK FOR IS PAYING FOR MY SCHOOL! IF YOU GO BACK AND EVEN READ THE POSTS I POSTED 6 MONTHS AGO YOU WOULD KNOW THIS. AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE THE TIME TO BASH ME, DON'T YOU HAVE THE TIME TO GO BACK AND GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT?

 

Nope. From Day 1, you said you were a lawyer.

 

From about Day 4, you said you were studying to be a lawyer.

 

From about Day 8, you said you were going to start studying to be a lawyer in the fall.

 

That's me GETTING MY FACTS STRAIGHT.

 

Your turn.

[awe4one]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ. SINCE DAY ONE I SAID LAW SCHOOL WAS PAID BY THE COMPANY! I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

SECOND, I DON'T LIKE THE WAY THE MARKET IS GOING. THE COMPANY I WORK FOR IS PAYING FOR MY SCHOOL! IF YOU GO BACK AND EVEN READ THE POSTS I POSTED 6 MONTHS AGO YOU WOULD KNOW THIS. AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE THE TIME TO BASH ME, DON'T YOU HAVE THE TIME TO GO BACK AND GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT?

 

Nope. From Day 1, you said you were a lawyer.

 

From about Day 4, you said you were studying to be a lawyer.

 

From about Day 8, you said you were going to start studying to be a lawyer in the fall.

 

That's me GETTING MY FACTS STRAIGHT.

 

Your turn.

 

FT...be aware of the mental capacity of who you're arguing against...

 

Jim

[14 of spades]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ.

 

i've read multiple times that you had posted your last post of this thread.

you aren't going to say that insufficiently_thoughtful_persons like me actually COMPEL you to return?

 

I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

if that's your idea of a complete sentence, please reconsider going through law school.

you should try attending elementary school first.

[comicworm]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ.

 

i've read multiple times that you had posted your last post of this thread.

you aren't going to say that insufficiently_thoughtful_persons like me actually COMPEL you to return?

 

I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

if that's your idea of a complete sentence, please reconsider going through law school.

you should try attending elementary school first.

 

I JUST BUMPED THE THREAD THAT HAD ME SPEAK ABOUT MY COMPANY PAYING FOR LAW SCHOOL-NOTE THE DATE, AS I COULD NOT OF EDITED IT!

 

SECOND-GO BACK AND READ SOME MORE POSTS-I NEVER CLAIMED TO BE A LAWYER-ALL I EVER SAID WAS THAT I AM IN LAW SCHOOL...

 

IF YOUR IN COLLEGE-HEAVEN FORBID...

 

I BUMPED THE THREAD ABOUT DRY PRESSING-SO YOU CAN REREAD MY POSTS, BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY YOUR MEMORY IS ALREADY GOING...

 

ANYTHING ELSE...

 

I'M WAITING....

 

[comicworm]

I THINK YOU BETTER LEARN TO READ. SINCE DAY ONE I SAID LAW SCHOOL WAS PAID BY THE COMPANY! I AM SELLING MY ENTIRE CGC GRADED COLLECTION FOR TWO REASONS: ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

SECOND, I DON'T LIKE THE WAY THE MARKET IS GOING. THE COMPANY I WORK FOR IS PAYING FOR MY SCHOOL! IF YOU GO BACK AND EVEN READ THE POSTS I POSTED 6 MONTHS AGO YOU WOULD KNOW THIS. AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE THE TIME TO BASH ME, DON'T YOU HAVE THE TIME TO GO BACK AND GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT?

 

Nope. From Day 1, you said you were a lawyer.

 

From about Day 4, you said you were studying to be a lawyer.

 

From about Day 8, you said you were going to start studying to be a lawyer in the fall.

 

THIS IS THE SECOND TIME YOU ACCUSED ME THAT I HAVE CLAIMED TO BE AN ATTORNEY WITHOUT SHOWING ANY EVIDENCE. YOU ARE ACCUSING ME OF COMMITING A CRIME. IF THERE IS A THIRD INSTANCE, YOIU WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR YOUR WORDS....

 

AND THAT YOU CAN COUNT ON....

 

 

That's me GETTING MY FACTS STRAIGHT.

 

Your turn.

[14 of spades]

ONE I DON'T LIKE THE HOBBY AND GUYS LIKE YOU!

 

why are you so sure you don't like me?

you don't even know me.

perhaps if we met in real life we'd get along.

why all the hate?

 

IF YOUR IN COLLEGE-HEAVEN FORBID...

 

um... do you mean to spell, "you're"?

 

btw - i'm in college.

i TEACH in a college.

i'm 28 and i have my first faculty appointment in a medical university in Asia.

so if you don't like "guys like me", you had better avoid going to any post-secondary institution (such as law school) cause it's people like me you'll have to deal with. god-forbid any of your law school professors are comic collectors - what will you do then?

 

anyways - it's clear u always want the last word - would you like to explain to all of us why?

[delekkerste]

And tying in with the fixed pricing for land in Japan which has still not fallen?

 

To further clarify, Japanese land prices have fallen, and then some:

 

 

I suppose a similar graph could be made about the HG comic market.

[Norrin_Radd]

And tying in with the fixed pricing for land in Japan which has still not fallen?

 

To further clarify, Japanese land prices have fallen, and then some:

 

 

 

Nice graph.

[Norrin_Radd]

For reference....

 

 

[14 of spades]

The author of this article is the same one who created the coin-crash prediction graph in this thread.

 

He predicts a sub-1000 Dow, and an all-time historical economic crash:

 

A stock market forecast that says ‘take cover’

Linky

Sun Jul 04 2010

Jeff Sommer

New York Times News Service

 

With the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.

 

Prechter is convinced we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions – perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.

 

In a series of phone conversations and e-mail exchanges last week, he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory – a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervor.

 

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or "fractals," in the stock market of the 1930s and '40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is underway, Prechter said. But he argued that even skeptical investors should take his advice seriously.

 

"I’m saying: ‘Winter is coming. Buy a coat,’" he said. "Other people are advising people to stay naked. If I’m wrong, you’re not hurt. If they’re wrong, you’re dead. It’s pretty benign advice to opt for safety for a while."

 

His advice: Individual investors should move completely out of the market and hold cash and cash equivalents, like Treasury bills, for years to come. (For traders with a fair amount of skill and willingness to embrace risk, he suggests other alternatives, like shorting the market or making bets on volatility.) But ultimately, "the decline will lead to one of the best investment opportunities ever," he said.

 

Buy-and-hold stock investors will be devastated in a crash much worse than the declines of 2008 and early 2009 or the worst years of the Great Depression or the Panic of 1873, he predicted.

 

For a rough parallel, he said, go all the way back to England and the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720, a crash that deterred people "from buying stocks for 100 years," he said. This time, he said, "If I’m right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, ‘Don’t touch stocks.'"

 

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. That unraveling, combined with a depression and deflation, will make anyone holding cash "extremely grateful for their prudence."

 

Prechter is hardly the only market hand to advocate prudence now, but nearly everyone else foresees a much rosier future once current difficulties are past. For example, Ralph J. Acampora, a market analyst with more than 40 years of experience, said he moved entirely out of stocks and into cash late last month. Now a partner at Alverita, a wealth management firm in New York, he said recent setbacks suggested that the market would drop another 10 or 15 percent, probably until September or October, before resuming another "meaningful rally."

 

Over the next several years Acampora expects an "old normal market," characterized by relatively short-lived swings that will provide many opportunities for smart investors – one that resembles the markets of the 1960s and 70s. "I’ve lived through it," he said.

 

Like Prechter, he is a past president of the Market Technicians Association, the leading organization of technical market analysts, and he said that his colleague has done "some very good work." But Acampora doesn’t agree with Prechter’s long-term theories, either intellectually or emotionally.

 

The "mathematics don’t work," Acampora said, because such a big decline would imply that individual stocks would need to trade at unrealistically low levels. Furthermore, he said, "I don’t want to agree with him, because if he’s right, we’ve basically got to go to the mountains with a gun and some soup cans, because it’s all over."

 

Still, on a "near-term" basis, he said, "We’re probably saying the same thing."

 

Similarly, Larry Berman, who co-founded ETF Capital Management in Toronto and recently ended his term as the president of the technicians association, says he sees a "classic" short-term negative market trend developing now. But he doesn’t use the Elliott Wave theory, saying Prechter is trying to "measure the market in decades, which is too long a time frame for practical trading purposes or for risk management."

 

Prechter, 61, lives in Gainesville, Ga., where he runs Elliott Wave International, a forecasting and publishing firm. He graduated from Yale University as a psychology major in 1971, dabbled as a singer, drummer and songwriter in a rock band and became a technical analyst for Merrill Lynch.

 

Prechter became fascinated by Elliott’s writings, which suggest that the market moves in predictable if complex patterns. Along with A.J. Frost, Prechter wrote "Elliott Wave Principle," a 1978 book that predicted the emergence of a great bull market – a forecast that was largely fulfilled. By 1987, he was widely regarded as an expert in technical analysis. Articles in The New York Times said he was known as "the market’s leading technical guru" – and more. An article in October that year said he had "emerged as both prophet and deity, an adviser whose advice reaches so many investors that he tends to pull the market the way he has predicted it will move."

 

He has far less day-to-day influence now, after years spent developing a theory he calls "socionomics," which holds "social moods" as the cause not only of market cycles but also of economic and political events. A grand cycle is ending, he says, and the time for reckoning is near.

 

In 2002, he published "Conquer the Crash," which predicted misery ahead. Even so, he said in 2008 that the market would soon rally sharply – then said late last year that stocks were about to fall and that the great decline would resume.

 

Since 1980, the advice in his investing newsletters, when converted into a portfolio, has slightly underperformed the overall stock market but has been much less risky, losing money in only one calendar year, according to calculations by The Hulbert Financial Digest. Prechter said he disagreed with the methodology used in these measurements, but offers none of his own.

 

For his part, Acampora says that the Elliott Wave has some validity as an indicator but that "it’s only part of the story" of technical market analysis, which also needs to be buttressed by economic and fundamental research.

 

Prechter says his unifying theory, socionomics, is a "young science."

 

"We’re quantifying it," he said. "We’re working on it." In the meantime, he contends, it has enabled him to "look around the corner" and prepare for a dangerous future.

[FlyingDonut]

So, the 98% of all books that are not slabbed are essentially OK then? Because that's what I'm seeing. This:

 

 

which Guides at about $18 (VG = $22) is going to sell on eBay for about $9, which is the same 50% discount off of Guide for mid- to lower grade books I've seen for the past 30 years.

 

That's my problem with all of these crash theories - while the crash theory is valid (those who think it is not are deluding themselves) for slabbed books, I just don't see it applying to the majority of comic sales. I also don't see it applying to comic stores as a whole - I go to comic stores all the time all over the country, and I can count on one hand the number of stores that have more than about 20 slabbed books in the store.

 

I think the "crash", if it comes, is only going to hit the high end market, and a VERY "niche" (for lack of a better term) part of that market. Sure, speculators are going to get burned. But how is that going to affect what the overwhelming majority of sales are? A speculator isn't buying my Journey Into Mystery 115 in VG - a collector is, and that collector, most likely, couldn't care less what happens to the prices of slabbed books.

 

Again, I agree with you and Gene on the crash for high grade slabbed books, but I think you're both widecasting too much. One great big tree falling down doesn't take out a whole forest. It may take out a few other trees, but the rest of the trees are fine.

 

[tth2]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

 

By that logic, now is a great time to buy too, since so many books have reverted to 2003-2004 price levels.

 

I guess if you ask a Realtor was it a great time to buy at the Peak of the Housing Market or at the nadir of the Crash some five years later, their response would probably be "Yes."

 

I've maintained for the last year that the slabbed market will start bottoming out when the supply is finally absorbed. We've seen instances of Bronze and Silver books, from 9.4s to 9.8s selling for less than the cost of certification, which is bound to impact the willingness of people to submit them if profit is their motive.

 

Sadly, I think we still have a ways to go in all this mess, but on the macro level and in this little hobby of ours, but if you are a patient buyer, you will be rewarded with some killer deals.

[tth2]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

 

By that logic, now is a great time to buy too, since so many books have reverted to 2003-2004 price levels.

I think for virtually any high end vintage (i.e., not Copper, Modern or late Bronze) slabbed book that was purchased in 2003 or 2004, the buyer would still be well ahead. Maybe not as far ahead as they might've been in 2006-2008, but still ahead.

[delekkerste]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

 

By that logic, now is a great time to buy too, since so many books have reverted to 2003-2004 price levels.

 

The way things are going, in a few years, I'll look more right than wrong about that period! Maybe by then Tim will stop dropping "2003-2004" every chance he gets about me.

[tth2]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

 

By that logic, now is a great time to buy too, since so many books have reverted to 2003-2004 price levels.

 

The way things are going, in a few years, I'll look more right than wrong about that period! Maybe by then Tim will stop dropping "2003-2004" every chance he gets about me.

If you can find a way to talk comic prices back down to 1996-1997 levels, I would be eternally grateful.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

The irony, of course, is that 2004 (when Gene started this thread) was a great time to buy high end vintage slabbed books.

 

By that logic, now is a great time to buy too, since so many books have reverted to 2003-2004 price levels.

 

The way things are going, in a few years, I'll look more right than wrong about that period! Maybe by then Tim will stop dropping "2003-2004" every chance he gets about me.

If you can find a way to talk comic prices back down to 1996-1997 levels, I would be eternally grateful.

 

I've been buying Silver Age books (not 9.4s or better, mind you) for about what I would've paid a decade ago. I think by the time the second part of this Double Dip Recession is in full force, many prices on the most common stuff will be back in line with early 90s pricing. Look at eBay, its not hard to get 9.4/9.6 /9.8 Bronze certified books for under $50, in some cases $30. Getting cool books like that on the cheap makes it fun for me, though the seller/submitter probably isn't pleased.

 

However, since you collect early SA high grade DCs, you're still screwed Tim. Sorry.

[drbanner]

I wonder what this would look like now?