what is going on at heritage?

[Bat-Man]

Can someone also tell me why the Batman #8 CGC 8.0 auction page has over 10,000 views?

[showcase22gr1959]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

What if the market is betting future growth and pricing in higher prices. A sign of a hot market. With the Avengers movie doing so well, comic awareness is growing.

the Market should hedge for healthy grow. But 1000% growth "overnight" relative to decades of 10% growth is an indicator of severe market imbalance and those markets (housing of past decade for example) correct themselves with very volitile and negative results that are far felt

 

I agree, irrational exuberance is not healthy for the market. Gradual growth is more acceptable and a explosive growth can have a stagnant affect down the road. Also, certain parts of the market segment may continue to grow and while others languish. There are increase money flow into the vintage comic market supporting prices and increasing prices. In contrast, the Housing Market bubble, it was easy borrowing which drove the speculate bubble. The overall comic market is not built on zero or 5% down. Theoretically, I don't see the comic market end up being like the housing market crash. A comic crash is inevitable, but will not end up as bloody.

[esquirecomics]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

What if the market is betting future growth and pricing in higher prices. A sign of a hot market. With the Avengers movie doing so well, comic awareness is growing.

the Market should hedge for healthy grow. But 1000% growth "overnight" relative to decades of 10% growth is an indicator of severe market imbalance and those markets (housing of past decade for example) correct themselves with very volitile and negative results that are far felt

 

I agree, irrational exuberance is not healthy for the market. Gradual growth is more acceptable and a explosive growth can have a stagnant affect down the road. Also, certain parts of the market segment may continue to grow and while others languish. There are increase money flow into the vintage comic market supporting prices and increasing prices. In contrast, the Housing Market bubble, it was easy borrowing which drove the speculate bubble. The overall comic market is not built on zero or 5% down. Theoretically, I don't see the comic market end up being like the housing market crash. A comic crash is inevitable, but will not end up as bloody.

 

We can apply a real life scenario to this speculative discussion.

 

Was Parrino's quick entry into and similar exit from the hobby about ten years ago after spending what was then ABSURD money on books (based on advice primarily from Bill Hughes) a good or bad thing for the growth of the hobby and price valuation?

[esquirecomics]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

Seriously Gator? The low grade A-Man 26 in C-Link a year or two ago sold for something like 30X guide. It had value to you, Win, and Bodhee, and possibly one or two others. I guess one could say you guys were random and volatile elements. If two or three copies of that book came available at one time the market for it would be shattered.

my point was the market for that book was perceived to be 5-6k before bidding ever started. And that is where it ended up. Guide comparison was/is not relative due to the fact that no copy had sold publicly in years and years. Then when a second copy showed up for auction we "extrapolated" one less bidder and a 4-5k est and low and behold that is exactly where it ended. So my point is that the market for that book was "known" by the market for that book (guide is not relevant, just as it is not relevant for pep 34, etc)

 

But batman 8 and superman 6, etc values are pretty much known By the market within reason.] So when bidding approaches the levels it currently is (like the supes 4&6 from a few years ago) that is a sign of market instability and I believe that is bad moving forward

 

rick, FWIW I understood your point with crystal clarity and fully agree with it. (thumbs u

 

+1

[Rip]

The problem isn't about 10X 20X guide, because there are plenty of RARE books out there (if you know them) that have always gone for insane above guide prices. This isn't anything new.

I don't know why this is part of the discussion.

 

Try to find a AM26, really go ahead. It really doesn't need to be stated that if there were more of them the price would drop like a rock.

 

I would have loved for my Cap to have gotten what the Heritage one is getting, but I know better. A higher grade book can be purchased for less than what Heritage is getting. That's what troubles me. And it's not an isolated event at this auction. Its reckless stupidly (or something worse) run across many books that have established values from many sales and recent offerings.

 

Edit: Saw G.A.tor's post that said basicly the same thing.

 

....Some bidders will place a VERY high maximum bid to flood out competition on books they really want. All it takes is two bidders with that strategy for the Dam to break. That Cap 2 in 8.0 is certainly not a piece of junk.....in other fields of collectibles that have more mainstream acceptance, something as scarce in grade as that might fetch some serious coin. It may turn out that Mitch is right about these things. Once the Uber Wealthy decide they're comfortable with vintage comics....the rest of us can pack up and go home. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

I agree some bidders do high max bids.

I remember some crazy price on that Wolverine book a few years back. I can think of many other examples as well. If it was just a Cap 2, (which IS a crazy price) we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

It's many books. In the SAME auction. On books that can be had for cheaper prices right now!! If there was a dam break, those other books wouldn't be for sale.

 

And at least Parrino picked up something more interesting like the Pay Copy of MC1.

[bluechip]

The problem isn't about 10X 20X guide, because there are plenty of RARE books out there (if you know them) that have always gone for insane above guide prices. This isn't anything new.

I don't know why this is part of the discussion.

 

Try to find a AM26, really go ahead. It really doesn't need to be stated that if there were more of them the price would drop like a rock.

 

I would have loved for my Cap to have gotten what the Heritage one is getting, but I know better. A higher grade book can be purchased for less than what Heritage is getting. That's what troubles me. And it's not an isolated event at this auction. Its reckless stupidly (or something worse) run across many books that have established values from many sales and recent offerings.

 

Edit: Saw G.A.tor's post that said basicly the same thing.

 

....Some bidders will place a VERY high maximum bid to flood out competition on books they really want. All it takes is two bidders with that strategy for the Dam to break. That Cap 2 in 8.0 is certainly not a piece of junk.....in other fields of collectibles that have more mainstream acceptance, something as scarce in grade as that might fetch some serious coin. It may turn out that Mitch is right about these things. Once the Uber Wealthy decide they're comfortable with vintage comics....the rest of us can pack up and go home. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

I agree some bidders do high max bids.

I remember some crazy price on that Wolverine book a few years back. I can think of many other examples as well. If it was just a Cap 2, (which IS a crazy price) we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

It's many books. In the SAME auction. On books that can be had for cheaper prices right now!! If there was a dam break, those other books wouldn't be for sale.

 

And at least Parrino picked up something more interesting like the Pay Copy of MC1.

 

When isolated examples of something sell for 20X what another example would sell for the same day, of course it's foolish to think the base price of that item will be the 20X figure from that point on. But neither does it mean that the market will crash so much that the price of all copies will drop below the "original" value.

 

 

 

[Rip]

I doubt its going to effect much other than maybe Heritage's vetting process.

[showcase22gr1959]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

What if the market is betting future growth and pricing in higher prices. A sign of a hot market. With the Avengers movie doing so well, comic awareness is growing.

the Market should hedge for healthy grow. But 1000% growth "overnight" relative to decades of 10% growth is an indicator of severe market imbalance and those markets (housing of past decade for example) correct themselves with very volitile and negative results that are far felt

 

I agree, irrational exuberance is not healthy for the market. Gradual growth is more acceptable and a explosive growth can have a stagnant affect down the road. Also, certain parts of the market segment may continue to grow and while others languish. There are increase money flow into the vintage comic market supporting prices and increasing prices. In contrast, the Housing Market bubble, it was easy borrowing which drove the speculate bubble. The overall comic market is not built on zero or 5% down. Theoretically, I don't see the comic market end up being like the housing market crash. A comic crash is inevitable, but will not end up as bloody.

 

We can apply a real life scenario to this speculative discussion.

 

Was Parrino's quick entry into and similar exit from the hobby about ten years ago after spending what was then ABSURD money on books (based on advice primarily from Bill Hughes) a good or bad thing for the growth of the hobby and price valuation?

 

Parrino's mass accumulation of the top books during that period is unheard of. He wanted to establish a market which he became the market. He should have been longer term like you Mark (SC4). (thumbs u As we have seen of quick flips, which sometimes does not always materialized. Now if all of these new money exit quickly, shall we see another Parrino effect?

[esquirecomics]

Little Archie #1 CGC 5.0 is already over $5,000!!! That's 34x Guide!!!

 

There is another 5.0 copy, and 4 others that are higher.

 

I think I am going to sell mine!!! Whoever might be an underbidder, call me!!!!

[esquirecomics]

The Argosy Comic Book Price Guide (Argosy Bookstore, 1965) is at $1,200!!

 

Now, I readily admit it is very difficult to find a copy of this book and I have rarely seen one for sale, but I think I paid less than $100 within the last year for one!

[bluechip]

Little Archie #1 CGC 5.0 is already over $5,000!!! That's 34x Guide!!!

 

There is another 5.0 copy, and 4 others that are higher.

 

I think I am going to sell mine!!! Whoever might be an underbidder, call me!!!!

 

I also have a pretty nice copy of that book which I never thought to slab. (but buy Mark's first because he called dibs. Then I'll sell mine after his sets a new record)

 

[lou_fine]

it also can create the housing bubble analogy... we need steady and realistic price growth to maintain the health of our hobby...price stability is key in any market... in virtually all instances, these type of price variations hurt markets in both the short and longer term

 

Bob;

 

Is that you in there taking over Rick's mind?

 

This is the way that Overstreet has always approached the market when it comes to his price guide. Although he is constantly castigated on these boards here because of his irrelevant price guide, a lot of long-term collectors and dealers feel that his slow and steady approach has had a stablizing influence on the marketplace. This in turn has actually facilitated the constant and steady gains which we have seen in the marketplace over the last 40 years with respect to investment quality comic books. (thumbs u

[lou_fine]

....Some bidders will place a VERY high maximum bid to flood out competition on books they really want. All it takes is two bidders with that strategy for the Dam to break.

 

Yes, that's it..........the answer to all this insane madness must be the MAX BIDS.

 

The Avengers movie is driving in a bunch of inexperienced newbies into this marketplace who doesn't really understand how these auctions are run. Heritage having access to all of the bidders knows that these are newbies and decides to take advantage of them by shill bidding them to a point where all of their max bids have been triggered.

 

Being the newbies that they are, they actually believe that all of these bids are legitimate and that they are lucky to be winning the bids on books that are on a non-stop trip to the big cash register in the sky.

[Aman619]

if the Avengers movie were driving this madness, the Marvels would due at crazy high prices, not GA DCs. unless they are under advice to be ahead of the Next big things??

[lou_fine]

if the Avengers movie were driving this madness, the Marvels would due at crazy high prices, not GA DCs. unless they are under advice to be ahead of the Next big things??

 

The high-end SA Marvels have been at crazy prices for ages now, considering their much higher supply relative to GA DC's.

 

Nah......they are just trying to get ahead of the curve with respect to Dark Knight Rises before it is release!

[Aman619]

Such good advice! Non key GA .. Why didn't I thnk of that?

[andyconlan]

I wonder if the price I'm currently bidding for a CGC 8.0 Cerebus #1 is too high, or if I will be outbid once the live auction starts. I wonder if Dave Sim would mock me for having paid that much if I end up buying it.

 

I'm waiting nervously, hoping somebody will outbid me on that Walt Disney Comics and Stories #1, since the New Zealand dollar has plummeted against the US over the last few days and looks like it will keep dropping as well.

 

Luckily, I don't collect the same stuff that most of you guys are talking about, so don't get caught up with most of the over bidding that seems to be going on with the Golden Age super hero stuff ...

 

[markseifert]

I wonder if Dave Sim would mock me for having paid that much if I end up buying it.

 

Sim has always had a positive attitude on his back issues commanding high prices, hasn't he?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

If it is International Bidders, and those with money, it's possible we are witnessing the "bottleneck" effect of those bidders primarily dealing with a reputable major auction house and ONLY that auction house.

 

I liken it to the "Car Max" effect. Sure, you can find a nice, clean late model car online with a few mouse clicks....even have it transferred in from another state for a small fee, and pay Car Max their premium for doing so with their inflated prices, or you can get off your butt and hit the local car lots and negotiate yourself a better deal then you would ever find with a "no hassle pricing" sort of place. The more you work, the more you know, the better the deals and opportunities are going to be. When you're someone with more money then time, who doesn't want to hassle with these things, you're only real concern is whether you end up bidding against like-minded individuals who also would rather pay a premium then play the game.

 

If the CC auction from last month is to be believed, we've entered a new era of big money entering this market. If that's true, we all have to ask ourselves how this changes our collecting going forward, and whether as a guppy, we feel inclined to swim with these new sharks.

[skybolt]

As a collector, I think it would be nice for Heritage to come on these boards and give us an update as to what happened with these books 2 weeks after the auction ends. We don't have to know the specific details, but if someone on Heritage said "relax guys, we had a couple of people bidding on these books in question, and the winning bidder did make the payments. As you all know anything could happen in an auction format and books could sell for way more than expected, or sometimes for considerably less." This statement would put everyone's nerves at ease and just attribute the high prices to newbie bidders that will have a tough time selling these books in the future.

 

However, if Heritage does not respond or if we find out that the sales never went through, then as collectors we have ask what safe guards will be put in place by the auction house to make sure this never happens again. For instance, what's to stop a current owner from having 2 shill bidders raising the price of a certain book into the stratosphere but not paying when they win the book? Heritage will ban the winning shill bidder from ever bidding again, while the other one lives to fight another day. If no one hears about what happened, then newbie collectors may believe that the 10X FMV sales did occur and that it's justified to pay $10k for a book that typically sells for $4k, but actually sold for $20k at an auction. Heck, they may even think they're getting a great deal in the private sale.

 

At minimum, the first thing Heritage needs to check is if all these books are consigned by the same owner. If not, then they can at least concentrate on the bidders themselves and hope they pay up.