what is going on at heritage?

[MrBedrock]

if I have said it once, I have said it 3.7 times...this kind of bidding is BAD for our hobby!

Why?

If it continues, it may give a buyer like myself an insecure feeling purchasing from an auction house.

So crazy, and possibly uniformed bidding undermines your faith in the auction system. I tend to agree with that, though I just step away from items that are going for stupid prices. Those silly bids have little affect on me personally. And we do tend to get excited about some sales prices that to the uninformed would seem silly, such as $2,000,000 for what is possibly the second or third best Action 1. The auction system itself is set up so whoever wants to pay the most for an item has ample opportunity.

So ultimately why is out-of-whack bidding a bad thing?

I believe this type of bidding causes some folks to "re think" their selling strategy...for example, because of a current heritage bid, a seller yesterday, can now want much more for a comparable book...thinking it is all of a sudden worth 3x, due to a crazy bid at an auction house (mind you, not a verified completed transaction, but a bid)... it inflates not only the auction copy, but in many cases (like someone pointed out today with an action on clink and like killercomics mentioned) other copies in the market...these inflated prices can slow potential buyers, and cause market stagnation...bad

 

it also takes some potential longer term collectors, and casts a very bad light on their purchases once they find out that they paid 10x FMV and can't even feel comfortable in recouping their purchase price... no matter how altruistic we want to be as collectors, anyone paying 10x market for a book is getting taken to the cleaners in a bad way...and that has to leave a bad taste in their mouth (and potentially others)...

 

it also can create the housing bubble analogy... we need steady and realistic price growth to maintain the health of our hobby...price stability is key in any market... in virtually all instances, these type of price variations hurt markets in both the short and longer term

Obviously many folks raise their prices on like items after an extreme auction result. And more often than not those books sit at those inflated prices. But there are many instances where those prices do become the market norm (Pep 34, A-Man 26, Marvel 46, Captain America 46, just to mention a few of which you have had some direct contribution - and I'm not saying that in a bad way.) Buyers dictate what something ultimately sells for. One buyer doing something silly and extreme shouldn't and doesn't hurt or help the entire market. It just happens and folks react. If this auction and these results are an indication of something bad then the market isn't that healthy to begin with.

[MrBedrock]

if I have said it once, I have said it 3.7 times...this kind of bidding is BAD for our hobby!

 

I'd like to add my 2 cents here...

 

Price stability is very important to any market. When prices take wild fluctuations, new investors/collectors who start to study the market realize that this is a poor place to invest/collect because of these wild fluctuations.

 

Additionally, more seasoned investors/collectors tend to back off for a time to allow the market to regulate itself in an effort to avoid getting caught up in an unsustainable frenzy.

 

Sellers get a sense that their books are worth more than they are, and so dealers end up with fewer books to sell because the dealers wont meet the unreasonable demands...

 

In the short term, dealers have less, sellers end up disappointed (with the exception of a lucky 0.1%), seasoned collectors/investors may step back some, and new investors/collectors are scared off...

 

bad for the hobby...

I would think that dealers would love for these auction results to be legit. It could mean that they, the dealers, will sell a lot more inventory in the coming months. The auction houses will love it because they will get a lot more consignments from folks hoping to cash in. The collectors should love it because the next go-round could produce some fantastic deals as all this glut of new material is pried from collections in hopes of being the next big sale.

[adamstrange]

So is it a good thing when something sells for a ridiculously low price at auction or on eBay?

Am I the buyer or the seller?

[G.A.tor]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

[showcase22gr1959]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

What if the market is betting future growth and pricing in higher prices. A sign of a hot market. With the Avengers movie doing so well, comic awareness is growing.

[MrBedrock]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

Seriously Gator? The low grade A-Man 26 in C-Link a year or two ago sold for something like 30X guide. It had value to you, Win, and Bodhee, and possibly one or two others. I guess one could say you guys were random and volatile elements. If two or three copies of that book came available at one time the market for it would be shattered.

[Gatsby77]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

Didn't that last (non-coverless) copy of Aman 26 sell for 34x guide?

 

Counter-argument could be that it was the first seen in such a long time so there was no established FMV for it, but that seems equivalent to a 10x multiple to me.

[buttock]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

That's because your perceived fmv is different than everyone else's on these books.

[nearmint]

You can buy Heritage's Supes #6 CGC 7.0 for at least $17,925, or you can buy Metro's raw copy for $2200.

 

Let's see how fast it sells. Steve and Vinny, you can mail me my commission.

[143ksk]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

Seriously Gator? The low grade A-Man 26 in C-Link a year or two ago sold for something like 30X guide. It had value to you, Win, and Bodhee, and possibly one or two others. I guess one could say you guys were random and volatile elements. If two or three copies of that book came available at one time the market for it would be shattered.

 

I think Rick's point is that 30x guide is FMV for that book, but books selling for multiples of their FMV are the problem. So, if you can buy a nicer copy of the same book for much less money at another public site, that's a problem.

[CrocHntr]

Or you can take the 8.0 on ebay right now for less than 8k. Buy it now.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CGC-8-0-CAPTAIN-AMERICA-5-VF-Cond-Cream-to-Off-White-Pages-Golden-Age-1941-/140728946349?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item20c4194ead

 

You can also take the Cap 7 at HA. At 23K its a steal

 

Something is going on.

 

 

I agree, Rip. I don't buy the argument that there just happen to be two ignorant wealthy buyers dancing the tango to bid up a Captain America CGC 6.5 to $14k (w/ BP) ~ for example. I don't care if they have blank checks or not, I just can't imagine that there are bidders out there who wouldn't have a clue of a books market value, or at least wouldn't take 2 seconds to find that they could buy a CGC 8.0 for $8k on ebay of all places.

 

Something is not right with this auction and I simply can't buy into any "legitimate" reasons for such high bidding. I've only been buying GA books for about a year and a half now, and I've got to say that I've moved from intimidation when it comes to the big auction houses to straight disbelief. Luckily I buy primarily from the boards (and have had decent luck with ComicLink). Something's definitely not right here. Either that, or average collectors such as myself are on the verge of getting bumped completely out of the GA market when it comes to decent semi-keys.

[BorderlineHoarder]

Just paid for the grader's notes on the Batman #8...this might explain it:

 

1/4" crease back cover (does not break color)

light dust shadow top edge

$30,000 taped to interior of cover

[CrocHntr]

Just paid for the grader's notes on the Batman #8...this might explain it:

 

1/4" crease back cover (does not break color)

light dust shadow top edge

$30,000 taped to interior of cover

 

I hope you didn't break the bank paying for the CGC grader notes!!

[Bat-Man]

[G.A.tor]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

Seriously Gator? The low grade A-Man 26 in C-Link a year or two ago sold for something like 30X guide. It had value to you, Win, and Bodhee, and possibly one or two others. I guess one could say you guys were random and volatile elements. If two or three copies of that book came available at one time the market for it would be shattered.

my point was the market for that book was perceived to be 5-6k before bidding ever started. And that is where it ended up. Guide comparison was/is not relative due to the fact that no copy had sold publicly in years and years. Then when a second copy showed up for auction we "extrapolated" one less bidder and a 4-5k est and low and behold that is exactly where it ended. So my point is that the market for that book was "known" by the market for that book (guide is not relevant, just as it is not relevant for pep 34, etc)

 

But batman 8 and superman 6, etc values are pretty much known By the market within reason So when bidding approaches the levels it currently is (like the supes 4&6 from a few years ago) that is a sign of market instability and I believe that is bad moving forward

[G.A.tor]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

I am a firm believer in free market... But a healthy free market is dictated by a certain set of pricing principles (supply, demand , internal and external market factors etc). When you introduce random and volitile elements into a relatively stable market, more often than not that market reacts adversely and harm is done both short and long term

 

This is what I see as a possibility given the perception some will take from the type bidding we are seeing.

 

What if the market is betting future growth and pricing in higher prices. A sign of a hot market. With the Avengers movie doing so well, comic awareness is growing.

the Market should hedge for healthy grow. But 1000% growth "overnight" relative to decades of 10% growth is an indicator of severe market imbalance and those markets (housing of past decade for example) correct themselves with very volitile and negative results that are far felt

[sacentaur]

I don't recall a time pep34 or aman 26 or mmc46 or cap 46 sold for 5-10x accepted or established or perceived fmv in the cgc era, for no apparent reason...at least not in the last 7+ years I have been tracking

 

Seriously Gator? The low grade A-Man 26 in C-Link a year or two ago sold for something like 30X guide. It had value to you, Win, and Bodhee, and possibly one or two others. I guess one could say you guys were random and volatile elements. If two or three copies of that book came available at one time the market for it would be shattered.

my point was the market for that book was perceived to be 5-6k before bidding ever started. And that is where it ended up. Guide comparison was/is not relative due to the fact that no copy had sold publicly in years and years. Then when a second copy showed up for auction we "extrapolated" one less bidder and a 4-5k est and low and behold that is exactly where it ended. So my point is that the market for that book was "known" by the market for that book (guide is not relevant, just as it is not relevant for pep 34, etc)

 

But batman 8 and superman 6, etc values are pretty much known By the market within reason.] So when bidding approaches the levels it currently is (like the supes 4&6 from a few years ago) that is a sign of market instability and I believe that is bad moving forward

 

rick, FWIW I understood your point with crystal clarity and fully agree with it. (thumbs u

 

[rockman2008]

Who knew Ben Bernanke is able to hack into GAtor's account?

 

the Market should hedge for healthy grow. But 1000% growth "overnight" relative to decades of 10% growth is an indicator of severe market imbalance and those markets (housing of past decade for example) correct themselves with very volitile and negative results that are far felt

[Rip]

The problem isn't about 10X 20X guide, because there are plenty of RARE books out there (if you know them) that have always gone for insane above guide prices. This isn't anything new.

I don't know why this is part of the discussion.

 

Try to find a AM26, really go ahead. It really doesn't need to be stated that if there were more of them the price would drop like a rock.

 

I would have loved for my Cap to have gotten what the Heritage one is getting, but I know better. A higher grade book can be purchased for less than what Heritage is getting. That's what troubles me. And it's not an isolated event at this auction. Its reckless stupidly (or something worse) run across many books that have established values from many sales and recent offerings.

 

Edit: Saw G.A.tor's post that said basicly the same thing.

[jimjum12]

The problem isn't about 10X 20X guide, because there are plenty of RARE books out there (if you know them) that have always gone for insane above guide prices. This isn't anything new.

I don't know why this is part of the discussion.

 

Try to find a AM26, really go ahead. It really doesn't need to be stated that if there were more of them the price would drop like a rock.

 

I would have loved for my Cap to have gotten what the Heritage one is getting, but I know better. A higher grade book can be purchased for less than what Heritage is getting. That's what troubles me. And it's not an isolated event at this auction. Its reckless stupidly (or something worse) run across many books that have established values from many sales and recent offerings.

 

Edit: Saw G.A.tor's post that said basicly the same thing.

 

....Some bidders will place a VERY high maximum bid to flood out competition on books they really want. All it takes is two bidders with that strategy for the Dam to break. That Cap 2 in 8.0 is certainly not a piece of junk.....in other fields of collectibles that have more mainstream acceptance, something as scarce in grade as that might fetch some serious coin. It may turn out that Mitch is right about these things. Once the Uber Wealthy decide they're comfortable with vintage comics....the rest of us can pack up and go home. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u