9.2 versus 9.6 Ethics versus Reality.

[FlComicFan]

I think they were including restored copies in the data as well as auctions that failed to meet reserve. No way a Amazing Fantasty 15 in 9.2 sold for $4000 unless we were all offline that week!

[delekkerste]

I think they were including restored copies in the data as well as auctions that failed to meet reserve. No way a Amazing Fantasty 15 in 9.2 sold for $4000 unless we were all offline that week!

 

Or maybe there's a zero missing? Or maybe the data's just plain wrong?

[drbanner]

I think they were including restored copies in the data as well as auctions that failed to meet reserve. No way a Amazing Fantasty 15 in 9.2 sold for $4000 unless we were all offline that week!

 

Yeah, that's pretty obvious if you look at the sales data for the two Spidey #1's in 9.2. Here's a link to the article about the "record" sale of the Hulk 181 9.6 at $2,850. The book was bought by "...a self-described comics collector and investor..." He didn't do too bad, huh? Neither did whoever bought the 9.4 off comiclink for $675.

 

I don't really see any books listed that appear to have dropped dramatically between 2000 and when comicsheet started tracking the data. I would have suspected the independents (cry for dawn, image) or the McFarlane Spidey 1 in 10.0 which they mention which was at $575 with a day to go, but GPA shows a $1k sale in '02 and a $650 sale this month for that book!?!? That's just crazy...and wasn't there a Spawn 1 10.0 that also went for crazy $$ early on?

 

I think this shows that whatever books might have crashed between Donut's first CGC sale on ebay in '00 (when was that?) and when comicsheet started tracking the data (5/02) are negligible to the CGC Market on the whole, and the indexes provide a good picture of the overall CGC Market.

 

Now...just where is that High-Price Index we previously discussed!!!

[FlyingDonut]

I think they were including restored copies in the data as well as auctions that failed to meet reserve. No way a Amazing Fantasty 15 in 9.2 sold for $4000 unless we were all offline that week!

 

Yeah, that's pretty obvious if you look at the sales data for the two Spidey #1's in 9.2. Here's a link to the article about the "record" sale of the Hulk 181 9.6 at $2,850. The book was bought by "...a self-described comics collector and investor..." He didn't do too bad, huh? Neither did whoever bought the 9.4 off comiclink for $675.

 

I don't really see any books listed that appear to have dropped dramatically between 2000 and when comicsheet started tracking the data. I would have suspected the independents (cry for dawn, image) or the McFarlane Spidey 1 in 10.0 which they mention which was at $575 with a day to go, but GPA shows a $1k sale in '02 and a $650 sale this month for that book!?!? That's just crazy...and wasn't there a Spawn 1 10.0 that also went for crazy $$ early on?

 

I think this shows that whatever books might have crashed between Donut's first CGC sale on ebay in '00 (when was that?) and when comicsheet started tracking the data (5/02) are negligible to the CGC Market on the whole, and the indexes provide a good picture of the overall CGC Market.

 

Now...just where is that High-Price Index we previously discussed!!!

 

The "First Sale" was in February 2000 (FF 1, 5.0, $1940 to Metropolis). I think the Spawn 1 10.0 was for $800, but I'm not sure. That FF 1 would have been a relatively good buy at the time.

[awe4one]

I think the Spawn 1 10.0 was for $800, but I'm not sure.

 

I seem to remember that price as correct also.....

 

Jim

[drbanner]

Hey Banner, look a bit closer and you'll find late-Byrne X-men CGC 9.4 copies selling for over $100 in 2000-2001. I have the sales listed in old Wizards, which were naturally hyping up the market.

 

Check your records again, I'm sure you'll find some.

 

Amazing...I'm a pack-rat!! Here are X-men data from the October 2000 Edition of Wizard. Looks like a lot of the Byrne X-men could be picked up in 9.6 for under $100!

 

What do the 2001 Wizards you mention above show? I'll post the rest of the data later...off to the swim meet!

 

[delekkerste]

Amazing...I'm a pack-rat!! Here are X-men data from the October 2000 Edition of Wizard. Looks like a lot of the Byrne X-men could be picked up in 9.6 for under $100!

 

...and some of those Byrne X-Men 9.4s could later have been had for 50% off.

 

Where did Wizard get these prices, anyway? I know they use actual sales data in their current issues, but I thought they used guesstimates, extrapolations and other made-up stuff back in the day (since they went out of their way to note when they switched over to using exclusively actual sales data).

 

In any case, these prices don't jibe with my recollection, and I know from having made first-hand purchases and sales that a lot of peak prices were recorded in 2000 and early 2001, never to be seen again. I'm not talking about keys and semi-keys, for the most part, but a lot of books once foolishly thought to be scarce in grade like PPSS #1; early 9.8 to 10.0 graded copies of just about anything; the overwhelming majority of 9.0-9.2 books (which once sold like today's 9.4s), and a lot of 9.4 and 9.6 non-keys where people were just buying the number on the label at all cost. I bet that guys like BronzeBruce, FlyingDonut, Sullypython, Wolvergeek and others who were very active back then (in Bronze/Modern especially) can confirm this.

[drbanner]

Amazing...I'm a pack-rat!! Here are X-men data from the October 2000 Edition of Wizard. Looks like a lot of the Byrne X-men could be picked up in 9.6 for under $100!

 

...and some of those Byrne X-Men 9.4s could later have been had for 50% off.

 

Where did Wizard get these prices, anyway? I know they use actual sales data in their current issues, but I thought they used guesstimates, extrapolations and other made-up stuff back in the day (since they went out of their way to note when they switched over to using exclusively actual sales data).

 

In any case, these prices don't jibe with my recollection, and I know from having made first-hand purchases and sales that a lot of peak prices were recorded in 2000 and early 2001, never to be seen again. I'm not talking about keys and semi-keys, for the most part, but a lot of books once foolishly thought to be scarce in grade like PPSS #1; early 9.8 to 10.0 graded copies of just about anything; the overwhelming majority of 9.0-9.2 books (which once sold like today's 9.4s), and a lot of 9.4 and 9.6 non-keys where people were just buying the number on the label at all cost. I bet that guys like BronzeBruce, FlyingDonut, Sullypython, Wolvergeek and others who were very active back then (in Bronze/Modern especially) can confirm this.

 

The Wizard data is actual sales data, which is why there are holes in some of the columns. I don't know how accurate your recollection is, but it obviously doesn't match up with my records, the CBG data, and now the Wizard data, don't know what else to say?

 

Also, you have to realize that comicsheet's indexes don't have junk books like any old plain-jane modern and bronze 9.6's. The low-price index has a good cross-section of decent bronze semi-keys and notable issues, all in 9.6, and the mid-price index has late silver and early bronze keys mostly in 9.4, with some lower grade books like Hulk 181 and HoS 92. I don't believe those books had any kind of crash/correction prior to May of '02, which is why I feel they are accurate in reflecting the CGC market on the whole over the last 2+ years.

 

Like I said before, prices for "any old" 9.6, 9.8, and 9.9 didn't hold any value after a year or so of CGC books hitting ebay, but those books don't really constitute the CGC market, much like CGC high grade books don't constitute the "comic book market" as donut points out.

[joe_collector]

Please let's not get into those ComicSheet indexes, as they've got more holes than a pre-Hammer resto book.

 

Example:

 

Jason sells an incredible Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 9.2 for $900, but 50 other sales range in the $500-$600 range.

 

What number gets put into the index?

 

Also, why are there so many "stable priced grades" like 9.0, 8.5, 8.0, 7.5, etc. in the mid-price index, while the CGC 9.6 low-price one is all Moderns?

 

Neither one gives us an adequate picture of the volatile CGC 9.4-9.8 Key Issue Silver/Bronze market that we all gab about constantly.

[drbanner]

Please let's not get into those ComicSheet indexes, as they've got more holes than a pre-Hammer resto book.

 

Example:

 

Jason sells an incredible Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 9.2 for $900, but 50 other sales range in the $500-$600 range.

 

What number gets put into the index?

 

The average...

 

Neither one gives us an adequate picture of the volatile CGC 9.4-9.8 Key Issue Silver/Bronze market that we all gab about constantly.

 

The indexes have plenty of silver and bronze 9.4's and 9.6's, you should read the list sometime. I know it's a lot funner to provide qualitative commentary on the state of the comic book market without letting those pesky facts get in the way (like, "...you could have sold an 8.5 Hulk 181 before the movie and bought a 9.2 later for less..."), but I'm more interested in real data.

 

Speaking of real data, why don't you share the Wizard data from '00/'01 you mentioned earlier?

[joe_collector]

The average...

 

Am I reading this wrong:

 

"The TCS Mid-Price 30 Index is a simple sum of the highest bid received in the last auction of the week for each of the listed issues in the stated CGC condition."

 

Now if you understand math, he can't be summing up ALL of the auctions, and according to this, takes the HIGHEST only.

 

The indexes have plenty of silver and bronze 9.4's and 9.6's, you should read the list sometime.

 

Sure, but I'm referring to KEY (K-E-Y) issues, of which a LARGE CHUNK of them are below CGC 9.4.

 

Amazing Spider-Man #39 CGC 9.0

Amazing Spider-Man #121 CGC 9.2

Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 9.2

Captain America #100 CGC 9.0

Fantastic Four #48 CGC 7.5

Giant-Size X-Men #1 CGC 8.0

House of Secrets #92 CGC 8.5

Incredible Hulk #102 CGC 9.0

Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 7.5

Silver Surfer #1 CGC 7.5

Uncanny X-Men #94 CGC 8.0

[drbanner]

You're right, it looks like it's the highest sale, not the average like I thought when I bonked you on the head...need some ice?

 

Yes, there are some sub-9.4 books, but there are plenty of 9.4's and 9.6's included that make the indexes a good indicator of the overall high grade late silver and bronze CGC market:

 

Amazing Spider-Man #300 9.6

Daredevil #180, #181, #182 9.6

Spectacular Spider-Man #1 9.6

Uncanny X-Men #137, #141, #142 9.6

Wolverine #1 9.6

Wolverine Limited Series #1 9.6

Wolverine: The Origin #1 9.6

Amazing Spider-Man #100 CGC 9.4

Amazing Spider-Man #122 CGC 9.4

Batman #200 CGC 9.4

Captain Marvel #1 CGC 9.6

Conan The Barbarian #1 CGC 9.4

Daredevil #158 CGC 9.4

Daredevil #168 CGC 9.4

Defenders #1 CGC 9.4

Doctor Strange #169 CGC 9.6

Iron Fist #14 CGC 9.4

Iron Man #1 CGC 9.4

Marvel Feature #1 CGC 9.4

Marvel Premiere #15 CGC 9.4

Nick Fury, Agent of Shield #1 CGC 9.6

Sub-Mariner #1 CGC 9.6

Tomb of Dracula #1 CGC 9.4

Uncanny X-Men #100 CGC 9.4

 

These books (along with the issues you listed above) are good overall indicators of the market...the canaries in the coal mine as it were. Looking at these lists, I see a lot of books you say are common in high grade and wayy overpriced and would be sure to fall in the impending crash, and aren't books that crashed with the rest of the bronze/modern junk in the early days of CGC.

 

I've talked to the 'sheet about including earlier silver and higher grade late silver in 9.4, but he said that he wanted a list of books that would show up for sale in number sufficient enough to reflect the trends, and he wanted books that were in the same ballpark price-wise such that one or two books wouldn't dominate the index. That said, last I heard he was working on developing a "High-price index" which would include sales back to '02 for some more expensive books.

[joe_collector]

That said, last I heard he was working on developing a "High-price index" which would include sales back to '02 for some more expensive books.

 

Now that's some good news, as books like FF 48, Hulk 181, GS X-Men #1, SS #4, etc. all show up in CGC 9.4 with great regularity. Including those in 7.5-9.0 really doesn't make sense, as those seldom change, and are really not the area a "price index" should be looking.

[drbanner]

Cool...you gonna share any of that '01 Wizard data with us?

[GOODBYE!-migration]

Remember when they were $ 135 in some cases, like Harbinger 1 and Magnus 12 at $ 85. I remember those days well.

 

Glad I could pick up my NM Harbringer #1 out of the $1 box. Not perfect QP but hey it was a buck.

 

Anyone here think there needs to be a few more grades to accurately grade books? I'm thinking that between 9.0-9.2, 5.0-6.0 and even between 1.0 and 0.1. Especiallty at the lowest grade tier there is so much differentiation(how many pages missing, how much of the cover missing, how #@$#@$ed up in general) that even 1.0 and .5 aren't enough in some cases. An Avengers 4 that would otherwise be a solid Fine except that it was a newstand return should be differentiated from a moldy, brittle, missing pages, majorly water damged copy of the same book. Both are currently graded poor or fair but the newstand return copy has much longer reading life while the other copy might break apart after two readings; heck it even has a chance to be restored to a much higher grade than the brittle copy; restoration becomes alot more acceptable when books reach 50plus years and it is properly disclosed.

 

I know this is a forum primarily for high grade collectors and you might not care about lower grades but these grades can really impact the overall comic market. If and when people start to get guide prices or better on accurately graded midgrades that is good for the whole hobby as it creates more comic wealth for comic colletors that inevitably pushes up the higher grades of all older books(not just keys and superkeys like AF 15, Action 1, Det 27, etc) to more of a sustainable level than just speculators buying and hoarding high grades of key issues. Right now the subguide prices realized on "midgrades" is largely due to the fact that so many of these books are overgraded by a full grade or two, while true fines are often sold as some variation of VF. Some food for thought.

[GOODBYE!-migration]

Amazing...I'm a pack-rat!! Here are X-men data from the October 2000 Edition of Wizard. Looks like a lot of the Byrne X-men could be picked up in 9.6 for under $100!

 

...and some of those Byrne X-Men 9.4s could later have been had for 50% off.

 

Where did Wizard get these prices, anyway?

 

Probably after taking a big hit of something and consulting the green fairy.

 

They made them up of course

[Aman619]

well, Nick, Im tempted to answer "who cares" about such lower graded books, but that wouldnt be nice. But really, there are so many flaws with comics in th elowest grades that its not feasable to weight each one and shade the grades overmuch, right? With a 9.2 or 9.4 book, its simpler (but still arguably) to value a crease versus a corner tear etc since there are only a handful of flaws to concentrate on.

[GOODBYE!-migration]

well, Nick, Im tempted to answer "who cares" about such lower graded books, but that wouldnt be nice. But really, there are so many flaws with comics in the lowest grades that its not feasable to weight each one and shade the grades overmuch, right? With a 9.2 or 9.4 book, its simpler (but still arguably) to value a crease versus a corner tear etc since there are only a handful of flaws to concentrate on.

 

My point about lower and mid graded raw books comes back to the long term viability of the hobby, of which the high grade speculators are really a very small part of. Screw people on over-graded raw mid and low grades and they probably won't stick around and push up the prices of your high grade slabbed gems, let alone your high midgrade gems. When the 5 or 6 other people willing to pay those crazy prices have more than enough multiple copies of the book you are trying to sell at speculative prices how are you going to recoup your full multiple guide purchase price short of waiting a few decades?

 

You better have a viable hobby to support higher prices in the long run. Just look what happened to Morgans, its a great time to buy for personal enjoyment now that all those fools that paid $500 for common dates are speculating elsewhere; cheap enough in accurate grade that you could make money on them holding them for a while without too much downside risk, plus put a really nice collection together. Just don't spend to much for a coin with a non-permanent finish.

 

You know why they don't list 9.6 prices for silver age? They are too over speculated right now to publish a price that will be valid for more than a month and not look make it look like Wizard, etc. is smoking crack as they pull figures out of their poopshoot The greater fool theory always comes home to roust inevitably and you can make real money in buying books presently undervalued, just like real estate. Joe Collector knows what I'm talking about.

 

Heck it's nice to pick up 9.0, 8.5, and 8.0 bronze for less of the price of grading as those books will not stay under priced forever just like mint Silver age did not stay underpriced for ever, just because there was a ton in the 1970's; ebay is more reflective of a wholesale market for most stuff anyways plus the low prices on non top or close to top census books show that it very few people buying cgc'd books in general. if you were a smart investor you remember the basic rule of buy low, sell high; it's not buy high and hope to sell even higher, that stratedgy has burned thousands in too many hobbies/stock markets to count.

 

The present CGC market seems to be a few hundred people gambling; I expect the long term market to be something more than that.

 

Look what happened to cards? When I hear that 2 of the highest priced non-sports cards are like $2.5 million, how is that justifiable compared to a 60 year old 64 page comic book debuting a character well known all over the world? Yet the vast amount of cards are worth pennies, as they should be given the limited entertainment value per dollar. The real strength of any hobby is what accurately graded mid grade samples go for not what two high grade maniacs dueling it out on a few books/cards/coins think it is.

 

You want to prevent a crash? Do more for the hobby than just buy high end and hoard. That selfish strategy has sunk many hobbies in the past and don't think it won't happen to you. The guys that buy multiples of high grade key issues, hoard, and support nothing else do nothing for the long term health of the hobby compared to good dealers selling books accurately graded and priced, mid grade or otherwise, comic books which helps keep people entering the hobby, in the hobby. Right, if that is not the point then how are high end collectors less selfish/short sighted than the executives at Enron who screwed their stock holders and employees out of many a retirement? Obviously you don't run the comics companies, but the huge amount of money poured into a small part of the market does influence the market as whole, undervaluing and overvaluing books consistently

[drbanner]

Just look what happened to Morgans, its a great time to buy for personal enjoyment now that all those fools that paid $500 for common dates are speculating elsewhere; cheap enough in accurate grade that you could make money on them holding them for a while without too much downside risk, plus put a really nice collection together. Just don't spend to much for a coin with a non-permanent finish.

 

 

Care to elaborate?

 

What's a non-permanent finish vs. a permanent finish?

[GOODBYE!-migration]

Toning