9.2 versus 9.6 Ethics versus Reality.

[delekkerste]

Thanks guys, it's good to know the coin hobby is thriving, even after TG(Coin)C of '90 drove the "insufficiently_thoughtful_person speculators" and their disinterested $$ away!

 

And maybe the '90s stock bubble and current debt/property bubble may have had something to do with the rebound? Let me allow Mr. T to tell you what will happen when all of this excess eventually and inevitably gets flushed out of the system:

 

"I pity da foos like Banner who only do 1-dimensional static analysis! My prediction for them? PAIN."

 

 

I think we can all learn a lot about comics with this analogy. In fact, this pattern has already shown itself in our hobby after TG(Modern)C of '02 when high grade late bronze/moderns in 9.6 plummeted nearly 40% before stabilizing.

 

You do realize that there actually was a slabbed market that existed in 2000 and 2001 before The Comic Sheet indexes and before GPA. Don't you remember the crack-smoking prices on even 9.0 and 9.2 Bronze and Moderns at the time? In some cases, 9.2 Moderns back then were selling for more than 9.8 Moderns are today (where a lot of books go unsold for $24.95 or less). Certain segments of the market are totally bombed out vs. the 1st 2 years of CGC, and that does not show up in the graphs that conveniently start in 2002.

[delekkerste]

Yet, all 3 markets closely parallel each other in that they all have cycles with the reasoning in those cycles very closely paralleling each other. Its basically the same routine, the only thing that differs is the item.

 

I agree wholeheartedly, because the root cause of *every* market mania, whether for stocks, samurai swords, tulip bulbs, artwork, beachfront property, coins, cards or comics, is HOPE and GREED. Comic collectors are not, have not, and will never be immune to this. All the other reasons cited to justify mania prices like nostalgia, rarity, appreciation, etc. are merely incidental to these powerful emotional drivers. Nostalgia alone cannot explain why the highest graded copy of a book will sell for 3 to 4 times the 2nd highest graded copy which often may look indistinguishable to the layman or, indeed, even to many collectors.

[COI]

You do realize that there actually was a slabbed market that existed in 2000 and 2001 before The Comic Sheet indexes and before GPA. Don't you remember the crack-smoking prices on even 9.0 and 9.2 Bronze and Moderns at the time? In some cases, 9.2 Moderns back then were selling for more than 9.8 Moderns are today (where a lot of books go unsold for $24.95 or less). Certain segments of the market are totally bombed out vs. the 1st 2 years of CGC, and that does not show up in the graphs that conveniently start in 2002.

 

It's amazing how this is so easily forgotten. I remember late silver ASM's in 9.0 selling for upwards of $200. But late bronze/modern books were definetly doing some insane things, expecially considering that Wizard was fueling the fire with ridiculous "CGC price guides" and "market analysis", which of course were centered around books from that time period.

[FlyingDonut]

You do realize that there actually was a slabbed market that existed in 2000 and 2001 before The Comic Sheet indexes and before GPA. Don't you remember the crack-smoking prices on even 9.0 and 9.2 Bronze and Moderns at the time? In some cases, 9.2 Moderns back then were selling for more than 9.8 Moderns are today (where a lot of books go unsold for $24.95 or less). Certain segments of the market are totally bombed out vs. the 1st 2 years of CGC, and that does not show up in the graphs that conveniently start in 2002.

 

It's amazing how this is so easily forgotten. I remember late silver ASM's in 9.0 selling for upwards of $200. But late bronze/modern books were definetly doing some insane things, expecially considering that Wizard was fueling the fire with ridiculous "CGC price guides" and "market analysis", which of course were centered around books from that time period.

 

I don't think it is forgotten. I think everybody is so wrapped around the axle debating the crash merits of an exceptionally small portion of the marketplace that they are not only not seeing the forest for the trees, they aren't seeing the trees for the bark. Yes. There has been a crash on slabbed books. Who cares?

 

I really don't understand Gene and J_C's obsession with it. If people want to [!@#%^&^] away their money, more power to them. If people want to drop giant sums of cash on 9.6 Spider-Man 1s, more power to them. Who cares? The overwhelming majority of the marketplace will be unaffected.

 

For mid- and lower-grade collectors (and they are legion), prices have remained consistent (as a percentage of Overstreet) for 30 years. MInor spikes, minor dips, but essentially slow increases in price against Overstreet for the entire time. Obviously there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of mainstream books, if you're collection is anywhere below VF/NM, you aren't paying insane prices, nor will you see the wild fluctuation in price.

 

People on this board represent the very high end of collectors, but everybody here has to recognize one fundamental fact. The slabbed, ultra-high grade marketplace is NOT the marketplace. It is the one that gathers all the attention, but it is not where all of the sales are. Permit me an analogy - prices on super high end Mercedes are rising through the stratosphere. Does that make the price of a Ford Taurus go up? Does it even matter? Probably not, and the buyer of a Taurus simply doesn't care what the price of a super high end Mercedes is.

[drbanner]

You do realize that there actually was a slabbed market that existed in 2000 and 2001 before The Comic Sheet indexes and before GPA. Don't you remember the crack-smoking prices on even 9.0 and 9.2 Bronze and Moderns at the time? In some cases, 9.2 Moderns back then were selling for more than 9.8 Moderns are today (where a lot of books go unsold for $24.95 or less). Certain segments of the market are totally bombed out vs. the 1st 2 years of CGC, and that does not show up in the graphs that conveniently start in 2002.

 

Remember them? I was selling 'em left and right and that's why I know what I'm talking about. In fact, I still have tons of data on what they went for back then, what do you want to see?

 

There may be some exceptions, but on the whole the books represented on the index graph linked above DID NOT CRASH in '01, although you are correct that 9.0 - 9.8 MODERNS quickly burned out, but they're not included in the index. Here are a few of the books that are included in the index (note that the Wolvie Origin issue wasn't even published until November of '01):

 

Amazing Spider-Man #200, #252, #300, Daredevil #180, #181, #182, Godzilla #1, Incredible Hulk #200, #340, Inhumans #1, Invaders #1, Kamandi #1, Marvel Super Heroes Secret Wars #8, Spectacular Spider-Man #1, Spider-Woman #1, Star Wars #1, #2, Super-Villain Team-Up #1, Uncanny X-Men #137, #141, #142, What If? #1, Wolverine #1, Wolverine Limited Series #1, Wolverine: The Origin #1.

 

And since I have real data, let's look at some data from '01 compared to today:

 

X-men 137 CGC 9.4 (sold in '01 for $61, one sold this month for $66)

X-men 141 CGC 9.2 (sold in '01 for $43, one sold this month for $50)

Wolverine Mini-Series 3 CGC 9.6 (sold in '01 for $40, one sold this month for $48)

 

Sorry Gene, but if you had all the data for the books included in the mid-price index going back to '00, your graph would not show any big crash prior to the summer of '02 as you insinuate.

[joe_collector]

Hey Banner, look a bit closer and you'll find late-Byrne X-men CGC 9.4 copies selling for over $100 in 2000-2001. I have the sales listed in old Wizards, which were naturally hyping up the market.

 

Check your records again, I'm sure you'll find some.

[delekkerste]

Now, now, don't wave your finger at me! Show me some of the prices from 2000, or should we just ignore those 12 months? Or what about the feeding frenzy in the spring of 2001? I know what I'm talking about from first-hand experience every bit as you do, because, as you will recall, I was every bit as active as you were in the market back then.

[COI]

People on this board represent the very high end of collectors, but everybody here has to recognize one fundamental fact. The slabbed, ultra-high grade marketplace is NOT the marketplace. It is the one that gathers all the attention, but it is not where all of the sales are. Permit me an analogy - prices on super high end Mercedes are rising through the stratosphere. Does that make the price of a Ford Taurus go up? Does it even matter? Probably not, and the buyer of a Taurus simply doesn't care what the price of a super high end Mercedes is.

 

I agree, and I never discuss the future of the low/mid grade market which represents the vast majority of the business, because beyond buying the odd reader copies of high grades I own, I'm not involved in it. But you said it yourself; the majority of readers/posters here are high end collectors, which is why this topic is discussed so much.

 

Negativity for its own sake is definetly not needed, but rational discussion about the future of the high end books, among high end collectors, on a board that caters to the high end segment of the market, should be embraced and encouraged. If it can't be, then you have to wonder about the mentalities behind the opposition. Why is everyone so against having this debate take place(rationally)? If it dosen't apply to the reader, they shouldn't care either way. And if it does, it's more likely a case of wishful thinking and denial.

[drbanner]

Hey Banner, look a bit closer and you'll find late-Byrne X-men CGC 9.4 copies selling for over $100 in 2000-2001. I have the sales listed in old Wizards, which were naturally hyping up the market.

 

Check your records again, I'm sure you'll find some.

 

I remember that data being in Wizard...do you still have any you can share with us? I did sell a 9.4 129 in '01 for $113 (which was the "newest" X-men in 9.4 that went for over $100). Interestingly, a quick check of GPA shows a $135 sale for that book in 9.4 this month!!

[delekkerste]

I don't think it is forgotten. I think everybody is so wrapped around the axle debating the crash merits of an exceptionally small portion of the marketplace that they are not only not seeing the forest for the trees, they aren't seeing the trees for the bark. Yes. There has been a crash on slabbed books. Who cares?

 

I really don't understand Gene and J_C's obsession with it. If people want to [!@#%^&^] away their money, more power to them. If people want to drop giant sums of cash on 9.6 Spider-Man 1s, more power to them. Who cares? The overwhelming majority of the marketplace will be unaffected.

 

Instead of thinking about the slabbed market as a sub-1% segment of the overall comic market, isn't the reality that the CGC market has enough critical mass to be considered 100% of a market unto itself? Furthermore, you make it seem like the raw and slabbed markets exist in separate vacuums, when we know that there used to be a huge arbitrage opportunity between the two markets which has now largely closed (hence, dealers selling raw "9.6" X-Men #101s for $460 ) No major dealer will sell you a slab-worthy book for a price that does not incorporate a substantial "slab-potential" premium - there is significant cross-linkage, at least for HG books, between the two markets.

 

 

For mid- and lower-grade collectors (and they are legion), prices have remained consistent (as a percentage of Overstreet) for 30 years. MInor spikes, minor dips, but essentially slow increases in price against Overstreet for the entire time. Obviously there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of mainstream books, if you're collection is anywhere below VF/NM, you aren't paying insane prices, nor will you see the wild fluctuation in price.

 

I have mixed feelings about this...I think we are near an inflection point in the hobby and we may find out that some of the "rules of thumb" that you cite above from the last 30 years may not hold in the next 30 years.

[NoImSpartacus]

I understand the worry if a person speculated on books at 10 x guide. Yet, the simple fact that if someone is a speculator it should indicate he is taking his chances. Some blindly and some with a small bit of knowledge with just enough to make them dangerous enough to themselves. If the bottom falls out, many of us will be waiting to just buy again at a lower price at different levels only to have the cycle start over again. Wether a crash or correction, its only a matter or how deep the dip. Once the dip gets past a certain level, there will be those like me to prop it up again for the next cycle. (Example: Buying preunity valiants at $ 2.00 - $3.00 over the past 6 years, only to be cashing them in now at 10 to 20 times that. Remember when they were $ 135 in some cases, like Harbinger 1 and Magnus 12 at $ 85. I remember those days well. If you knew how to handle the situation of their fall in price, you still did well. We can say the same for other areas back then as well. The loss by others is the new speculators or collectors dream. Even if that cycle takes 4, 5, 6 years to exhibit itself. Everything is collectible and will once again rise its head. If you recognize those cycles and how to deal with them, you are safe. If you dont recognize how to deal with them, dont speculate. If your just a reader and lover of books, then, thats fine too.

[NoImSpartacus]

No major dealer will sell you a slab-worthy book for a price that does not incorporate a substantial "slab-potential" premium - there is significant cross-linkage, at least for HG books, between the two markets.

 

Agreed!!! Otherwise they get cleaned out fast from those who buy off and send them into be slabbed. Those that dont have some type of a premium are capitalized upon. Too much of a premium means I walk away so there has to be a fine line.

[drbanner]

Now, now, don't wave your finger at me! Show me some of the prices from 2000, or should we just ignore those 12 months? Or what about the feeding frenzy in the spring of 2001? I know what I'm talking about from first-hand experience every bit as you do, because, as you will recall, I was every bit as active as you were in the market back then.

 

Yes, I recall that fondly...

 

That X-men 137 sale mentioned above was from February of '01, and conveniently enough, I just discovered the "Graded Comic Report" from the September 15, 2000 issue of CBG in my desk!!

 

Here are some sales from September of '00 that would be relevant to Comicsheet's Mid-Price Index:

 

Hulk 181 9.4 - $1,100, $1,350, $1351

Hulk 181 9.6 $2,850

Spidey 100 9.0 $164

Spidey 121 9.0 - $163, $138

Spidey 122 9.0 $128

Avengers Annual 10 9.4 $66

DD 158 9.0 $55

DD 168 8.5 $42

Defenders 1 9.4 $148

Fear 10 9.0 $31

GS X-men 1 9.0 $710

Star Wars 1 9.2 $52

Wolverine 1 9.8 $163

Wolverine 2 9.8 $30

Wolverine 3 9.6 $29

 

Still think the sheet's mid-price graph would show a big crash before May of '02? Don't think so!!

[Mr. Zipper]

Furthermore, you make it seem like the raw and slabbed markets exist in separate vacuums, when we know that there used to be a huge arbitrage opportunity between the two markets which has now largely closed (hence, dealers selling "9.6" X-Men #101s for $460 ) No major dealer will sell you a slab-worthy book for a price that does not incorporate a substantial "slab-potential" premium - there is significant cross-linkage, at least for HG books, between the two markets.

 

While I agree with Donut that the vast majority of the market is raw and buys and sells at a discount to OS, I fear that your scenario is becoming more common. As a collector who buys a lot of raw bronze in the 8.5 - 9.4 range, I see more and more raw prices being jacked up based on CGC "potential." The X-Men 101 vignette is only one example of many I'm sure.

 

Some dealers want to profit from the CGC multiple mania without having the hassle or expense of actually submitting their books.

[joe_collector]

Some dealers want to profit from the CGC multiple mania without having the hassle or expense of actually submitting their books.

 

You forgot the most important one: RISK

 

And I'm sure we'll have the usual "but would you pay the dealer more if it comes back a 9.6?" talk going on, but honestly, how many times do you think that happens?

 

100 buyers buy 100 NM Raw Key issues at a convention, then submit to CGC.

 

What percentage would come back 8.X or lower, 9.0, 9.2, 9.4 or 9.6 or higher?

 

At this point in time, (personally speaking), there would be a ton at 9.0-9.2 and very little anywhere else.

[FlyingDonut]

I don't think it is forgotten. I think everybody is so wrapped around the axle debating the crash merits of an exceptionally small portion of the marketplace that they are not only not seeing the forest for the trees, they aren't seeing the trees for the bark. Yes. There has been a crash on slabbed books. Who cares?

 

I really don't understand Gene and J_C's obsession with it. If people want to [!@#%^&^] away their money, more power to them. If people want to drop giant sums of cash on 9.6 Spider-Man 1s, more power to them. Who cares? The overwhelming majority of the marketplace will be unaffected.

 

Instead of thinking about the slabbed market as a sub-1% segment of the overall comic market, isn't the reality that the CGC market has enough critical mass to be considered 100% of a market unto itself? Furthermore, you make it seem like the raw and slabbed markets exist in separate vacuums, when we know that there used to be a huge arbitrage opportunity between the two markets which has now largely closed (hence, dealers selling raw "9.6" X-Men #101s for $460 ) No major dealer will sell you a slab-worthy book for a price that does not incorporate a substantial "slab-potential" premium - there is significant cross-linkage, at least for HG books, between the two markets.

 

 

For mid- and lower-grade collectors (and they are legion), prices have remained consistent (as a percentage of Overstreet) for 30 years. MInor spikes, minor dips, but essentially slow increases in price against Overstreet for the entire time. Obviously there are exceptions, but for the vast majority of mainstream books, if you're collection is anywhere below VF/NM, you aren't paying insane prices, nor will you see the wild fluctuation in price.

 

I have mixed feelings about this...I think we are near an inflection point in the hobby and we may find out that some of the "rules of thumb" that you cite above from the last 30 years may not hold in the next 30 years.

 

Interesting thought on the CGC vs. non-CGC marketplace. I think there may be two different and distinct marketplaces now, the super high grade slabbed market and everything else. It will be interesting to see what happens to the prices of mid- and lower-grade books as the two markets continue to diverge. My thought is that the mid-grade book will remain essentially flat or decline slightly, while very low grade copies of very high demand books will see a price increase.

[thecomicsheet]

Now, now, don't wave your finger at me! Show me some of the prices from 2000, or should we just ignore those 12 months? Or what about the feeding frenzy in the spring of 2001? I know what I'm talking about from first-hand experience every bit as you do, because, as you will recall, I was every bit as active as you were in the market back then.

 

Yes, I recall that fondly...

 

That X-men 137 sale mentioned above was from February of '01, and conveniently enough, I just discovered the "Graded Comic Report" from the September 15, 2000 issue of CBG in my desk!!

 

Here are some sales from September of '00 that would be relevant to Comicsheet's Mid-Price Index:

 

Hulk 181 9.4 - $1,100, $1,350, $1351

Hulk 181 9.6 $2,850

Spidey 100 9.0 $164

Spidey 121 9.0 - $163, $138

Spidey 122 9.0 $128

Avengers Annual 10 9.4 $66

DD 158 9.0 $55

DD 168 8.5 $42

Defenders 1 9.4 $148

Fear 10 9.0 $31

GS X-men 1 9.0 $710

Star Wars 1 9.2 $52

Wolverine 1 9.8 $163

Wolverine 2 9.8 $30

Wolverine 3 9.6 $29

 

Still think the sheet's mid-price graph would show a big crash before May of '02? Don't think so!!

 

I'm going to get my indexes caught up through mid-June this evening. I think the market has been doing rather well the last month and a half, but I'll know more later.

 

I first noticed the high prices high grade CGC books were getting back in 2001. I didn't really get the idea for saving the prices in the database until May of 2002. I wish I had had the idea a few months earlier. There were some spectacular moves in the market right around that time (both up and down).

 

Thanks for the prices listed above. On average it looks like you would have done ok to buy all of those books at the given price. Some have gone down, but more have gone up. I've taken the above list and added off to the side about what those issues are going for today:

 

Hulk 181 9.4 - $1,100, $1,350, $1351 --- $2100

Hulk 181 9.6 $2,850 --- $4500

Spidey 100 9.0 $164 --- $190

Spidey 121 9.0 - $163, $138 --- $225

Spidey 122 9.0 $128 --- $250

Avengers Annual 10 9.4 $66 --- $32.50

DD 158 9.0 $55 --- $50

DD 168 8.5 $42 --- $75

Defenders 1 9.4 $148 --- $250

Fear 10 9.0 $31 --- $65

GS X-men 1 9.0 $710 --- $650

Star Wars 1 9.2 $52 --- $40

Wolverine 1 9.8 $163 --- $125

Wolverine 2 9.8 $30 --- $50

Wolverine 3 9.6 $29 --- $17.50

[drbanner]

Here's the Marvel and Image data, and the rest of the list can be found here. The key Marvel Silver Age data must be for restored copies?

 

There must be other data published in the CBG in '00 and '01, as well as the previously mentioned Wizard data. Unfortunately, I don't have any old Wizards!

 

[DiceX]

I'll have an Amazing Fantasy #15 in CGC 9.2 for $4050...

And a double Amazing Spider-Man #1 in CGC 9.2 for $4050, please

Hold the fries.

[Aces]

Here's the Marvel and Image data, and the rest of the list can be found here. The key Marvel Silver Age data must be for restored copies?

 

There must be other data published in the CBG in '00 and '01, as well as the previously mentioned Wizard data. Unfortunately, I don't have any old Wizards!

 

 

2 FF 2s in 4.0 for $386 and $320!!!!

 

I'll take both please!