When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[comix4fun]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

I love Walking Dead. I was an early adopter. My collection ran back to issue #1 of buying it off the stands. I've bought and read every issue since. All that being said, take a breath.

 

#4 should scare the living mess out of you if you are concerned with long term growth. Spikes beget spikes in the inverse.

 

As for "generations to come"....do you know a lot of people that want "Whiz Comics" right now? That comic was one of the original juggernauts, selling nearly 1.4 million copies PER ISSUE at its peak...and was GONE within a decade of those sales figures.

 

That was our parents and grandparents generation. Do you see anyone outside of a few GA collectors who gave a hairy rat's about Whiz? If they did, and if current success was a guarantee of future quality, sales and popularity, Captain Marvel would be the biggest book going today. Books come, they go, no matter how popular or hot or great, tastes change, trends change, nothing lasts forever. Marketing, support, and fresh stories are integral to success. There's no guarantee WD will have any of those three for any guaranteed period of time.

 

Have a little perspective.

 

 

Maybe I should get both my #1's graded and sell them to get a Amazing Fantasy 15.

 

 

One's got a 50 year track record of demand and is a multi-billion dollar empire appealing to small children as well as it does to adults, and has a marketing team that has products and items in every category and in almost every possible retail location all over the globe with no end in sight, the other (while currently popular with a TV series buoying interest and prices)....somewhat less.

 

There's devotion and then there's blind devotion. I find it much easier to enjoy comics with my eyes open.

[Aweandlorder]

Do you see anyone outside of a few GA collectors who gave a hairy rat's about Whiz?

 

 

Exactly my point! It will def lose momentum at a certain point.. But just like "Whiz" it will def not depreciate in value. Just because of...

 

2. low print run

 

 

 

 

[Mark 1]

Speculation and conjecture. That's all this is.

 

None of us know the future. We just use certain analogues to come up with our hypothesis of why it will go down or why it will remain the same...or why it will go up.

 

None of us knows what will happen to WD.

 

My HOPE is that is maintains popularity and grows in value. If it doesn't....I will have a set of books that I enjoy but highly overpaid for them. Oh well.

 

 

[The Jerr]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

I love Walking Dead. I was an early adopter. My collection ran back to issue #1 of buying it off the stands. I've bought and read every issue since. All that being said, take a breath.

 

#4 should scare the living mess out of you if you are concerned with long term growth. Spikes beget spikes in the inverse.

 

As for "generations to come"....do you know a lot of people that want "Whiz Comics" right now? That comic was one of the original juggernauts, selling nearly 1.4 million copies PER ISSUE at its peak...and was GONE within a decade of those sales figures.

 

That was our parents and grandparents generation. Do you see anyone outside of a few GA collectors who gave a hairy rat's about Whiz? If they did, and if current success was a guarantee of future quality, sales and popularity, Captain Marvel would be the biggest book going today. Books come, they go, no matter how popular or hot or great, tastes change, trends change, nothing lasts forever. Marketing, support, and fresh stories are integral to success. There's no guarantee WD will have any of those three for any guaranteed period of time.

 

Have a little perspective.

 

 

Maybe I should get both my #1's graded and sell them to get a Amazing Fantasy 15.

 

 

One's got a 50 year track record of demand and is a multi-billion dollar empire appealing to small children as well as it does to adults, and has a marketing team that has products and items in every category and in almost every possible retail location all over the globe with no end in sight, the other (while currently popular with a TV series buoying interest and prices)....somewhat less.

 

There's devotion and then there's blind devotion. I find it much easier to enjoy comics with my eyes open.

 

Yeah I am really starting to think about getting all my Image #1's graded and sell them. Using the profits to get me a nice Graded Amazing Fantasy 15. I remember years ago I was going to get one for $6,500, 6.5 graded blue label, and I told my wife. She got pissed at me and gave me . I showed her what 1 at that grade is worth now, and she like when do you ever listen to me.

[comix4fun]

Do you see anyone outside of a few GA collectors who gave a hairy rat's about Whiz?

 

 

Exactly my point! It will def lose momentum at a certain point.. But just like "Whiz" it will def not depreciate in value. Just because of...

 

2. low print run

 

 

 

 

 

 

That was most certainly not your point, but ok.

 

This isn't the 40's. There are no paper drives for the war. Books aren't being destroyed. It was 30 years after the fact that people sought out Whiz, which made it rare, which gave it value. Walking Dead was born into a fully grown comic book market where almost every book was nestled in plastic and cardboard from moments after it was born. Large swaths of the print run are NEVER EVEN READ.

 

These aren't collectibles that people are throwing away. They are buoyed by very specific marketing, hype and conditions perfect for momentary price escalations. That isn't the same thing as 30 years of steady growth, support, and integration into society like Spider-man or the X-men. Walking Dead has a TV show on NOW, and a series running NOW. When those two things fade away I wonder what will buoy interest.

 

If you want to think that Walking Dead is the first bulletproof collectible of all time, please feel free. You won't be the first person to think they've discovered a "Sure Thing" ...but you'd be the first person that was RIGHT in thinking that.

[comicartfan]

You know Chris, whenever I read speculation threads or see records being broken, I think of Captain Marvel....He outsold Superman for a period of time and "bang", his popularity tanked....and never recovered. Textbook case for doing what you are preaching "Keep your emotions in check " when buying the next big thing.

[Aweandlorder]

A low print run is a low print run... When the WD hoopla is over it will still have a cult following.. certainly in the 10s of thousands if not 100s of thousands, which will ALWAYS make these books worth money, and you can bet that in 70 years from now there will be even less of these original prints floating regardless of econmical or social trends that affected whiz...

Edited April 24, 2013 by Aweandlorder

[seanfingh]

A low print run is a low print run... When the WD hoopla is over it will still have a cult following.. certainly in the 10s of thousands if not 100s of thousands, which will ALWAYS make these books worth money, and you can bet that in 70 years from now there will be even less of these original prints floating regardless of econmical or social trends that affected whiz...

 

Cult following doesn't translate to comic value. Otherwise Xena, buffy, and Serenity comics would be blowing up.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Actually, when I saw that one sell for $2800, I was thinking $3000, I just might...

 

 

 

 

So you're going to keep it until you die, but you'd like to upgrade, but you'd sell it if the price was right.

 

 

 

If there's as many people like you who own copies of the book as I think there are, I think we can at least agree that the bubble WILL burst. All it will take is enough people to flood the market with copies. Which will happen.

 

This is how they burst. People holding them watch them go up, and think they could get out if the book hits that next round number. But then the book stops going up, and (gasp) maybe ticks downward. Slowly at first. And then you get people who think they could live with $2000, or $1700, or $1500, or hell, whatever I can get someone to give me for it. But nobody wants to try to catch the falling knife on the buy side unless they get a smoking deal. so the price keeps dropping until a low enough level is reached that people feel confident to buy again, or it is so cheap that they don't need to worry about being caught when the music stops.

 

The question is how many copies are being held by people who will keep them until they die, and how many are held by folks that bought them at $1500 in hopes of selling at $2500. If there are a lot in the latter camp there will be a real rush for the exit without enough demand at these levels to keep the book propped up. How many current owners would sell at the right price, and how close is that price point? How many more buyers really want this book to the tune of nearly $3000?

[Aweandlorder]

But I aint gonna front.. The first dude that drops 4G my way Im selling them my lot

[RockMyAmadeus]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

I love Walking Dead. I was an early adopter. My collection ran back to issue #1 of buying it off the stands. I've bought and read every issue since. All that being said, take a breath.

 

#4 should scare the living mess out of you if you are concerned with long term growth. Spikes beget spikes in the inverse.

 

As for "generations to come"....do you know a lot of people that want "Whiz Comics" right now? That comic was one of the original juggernauts, selling nearly 1.4 million copies PER ISSUE at its peak...and was GONE within a decade of those sales figures.

 

That was our parents and grandparents generation. Do you see anyone outside of a few GA collectors who gave a hairy rat's about Whiz? If they did, and if current success was a guarantee of future quality, sales and popularity, Captain Marvel would be the biggest book going today. Books come, they go, no matter how popular or hot or great, tastes change, trends change, nothing lasts forever. Marketing, support, and fresh stories are integral to success. There's no guarantee WD will have any of those three for any guaranteed period of time.

 

Have a little perspective.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

[greenhoody]

Oh snap!

[NewWorldOrder]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

 

Finally you posted something I agree with.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

 

Finally you posted something I agree with.

[Comicdey]

Walking dead 1 is the TMNT 1 of this older generation. It will likely have ebb and flow in value as it climbs with inflation and then some. Will it go up, stay at current levels or go down, yes is the answer. Buy low sell high.

[NewWorldOrder]

Show me another book that had:

1. Excellent story and art

2. low print run

3. turned to a TV show/movie

4. Sold for almost 3k in less than a decade

=

solid hit for generations to come

 

 

 

Finally you posted something I agree with.

 

Like Conan #1, Walking Dead #1 will always have value the big question is how much will it deflate etc.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Walking dead 1 is the TMNT 1 of this older generation. It will likely have ebb and flow in value as it climbs with inflation and then some. Will it go up, stay at current levels or go down, yes is the answer. Buy low sell high.

[NewWorldOrder]

TWD bubble wil never burst just deflate to a realistic value once the hype ends.

 

Not a big deal.

 

Make no mistake WD #1 is the AF 15 of the modern age.

 

It is not a cult book anymore.

 

Cult books never get this kind of mass marketing business product attention.

(No to The Crow.......not even close.)

 

WD #1-9, 19, and 27 will always be in demand, but we will just have to see the "real values" once the hype is over.

 

Even if WD #1 in each specific CGC grade deflates by 25% to even 50% is still not cheap to buy.

 

 

Edited April 24, 2013 by Spiderman-on-Tilt

[Aweandlorder]

Conan is a great example!! How much was this book 10 years after it came out? 20? and today? GPA anyone??