Brave & Bold #28: Speculation on future pricing 4 4

[VintageComics]

But of course, I would never have made my statements in the first place without already knowing what the publicly available sales data would illustrate.

 

-J.

 

Your goal posts moved again.

 

Now you are only relying on 'publicly available sales data' which would exclude anything you can't find on GPA.

 

But countless people have already shown that the GPA data can misrepresent sales and are not statistically viable because there are no real controls in place. Auctions vs. BIN's, faked eBay sales or sales that did not follow through, large differences in eye appeal, was it an upgradeable old label or just a new label and even just WHEN or WHERE the sale took place can and do create large variables. There are more variables, these are just the ones that come to mind quickly.

 

But the Clink auctions were a perfect example that proved you wrong. And they are not imaginary, exaggerated or secret. They're just not posted for you to see.

 

They ran literally 100's of auctions of books in the same grade (possibly 1000's), at the same time, in the same format and the books with White pages consistently went for more than non white page copies.

 

And that should be the end of the discussion.

 

Anyhow, this is my last post on the subject. Have fun all.

[Jaydogrules]

But of course, I would never have made my statements in the first place without already knowing what the publicly available sales data would illustrate.

 

-J.

 

Your goal posts moved again.

 

Now you are only relying on 'publicly available sales data' which would exclude anything you can't find on GPA.

 

But countless people have already shown that the GPA data can misrepresent sales and are not statistically viable because there are no real controls in place. Auctions vs. BIN's, faked eBay sales or sales that did not follow through, large differences in eye appeal, was it an upgradeable old label or just a new label and even just WHEN or WHERE the sale took place can and do create large variables. There are more variables, these are just the ones that come to mind quickly.

 

But the Clink auctions were a perfect example that proved you wrong. And they are not imaginary, exaggerated or secret. They're just not posted for you to see.

 

They ran literally 100's of auctions of books in the same grade (possibly 1000's), at the same time, in the same format and the books with White pages consistently went for more than non white page copies.

 

And that should be the end of the discussion.

 

Anyhow, this is my last post on the subject. Have fun all.

 

No. I still haven't "moved goal posts". Implicit in the fact that I have cited GPA should be the presumption that I am relying on "publicly available sales data".

 

As I said earlier, that there is "other data" out there that may or may not suggest something else only proves my point- that the cumulative results reflect an inconsistency which renders any attempts at a correlation futile.

 

Always a pleasure, Vintage.

 

-J.

[drbanner]

 

So then what does that mean? If the hypothesis is that books with "better 'PQ'" on the label "always" sell for more, and then someone provides you with nearly two dozen examples of the same book, in seven different grades over a span of two years, where that in fact did not happen, I would say that said hypothesis (ie, myth) has been busted. You want to provide me some examples when the "PQ" on the label made a positive difference? Great, I never said those weren't out there. But there is overwhelming contravening data, for this book (and probably every similar book that you could think of) that also proves the exact opposite. That would be the very definition of "inconsistent", "random", and "unquantifiable", which is essentially makes the attempt to draw any correlation futile and meaningless.

 

 

 

 

No, they have not, and there will not be a single post of mine that you can quote in context that will demonstrate otherwise. I set out to prove a lack of consistent correlation or "premium" between the "PQ" on the label and sales price, and that's what I did by citing the litany of publicly available sales data. If it had actually proven me "wrong" I would be more than happy to acknowledge such. But of course, I would never have made my statements in the first place without already knowing what the publicly available sales data would illustrate. ;\)

 

-J.

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

 

So then what does that mean? If the hypothesis is that books with "better 'PQ'" on the label "always" sell for more, and then someone provides you with nearly two dozen examples of the same book, in seven different grades over a span of two years, where that in fact did not happen, I would say that said hypothesis (ie, myth) has been busted. You want to provide me some examples when the "PQ" on the label made a positive difference? Great, I never said those weren't out there. But there is overwhelming contravening data, for this book (and probably every similar book that you could think of) that also proves the exact opposite. That would be the very definition of "inconsistent", "random", and "unquantifiable", which is essentially makes the attempt to draw any correlation futile and meaningless.

 

 

 

 

No, they have not, and there will not be a single post of mine that you can quote in context that will demonstrate otherwise. I set out to prove a lack of consistent correlation or "premium" between the "PQ" on the label and sales price, and that's what I did by citing the litany of publicly available sales data. If it had actually proven me "wrong" I would be more than happy to acknowledge such. But of course, I would never have made my statements in the first place without already knowing what the publicly available sales data would illustrate. ;\)

 

-J.

 

 

 

You may want to re-read that entire post in context. ( The first part set out the "hypothesis" of the opposing opinion.) (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

[Jeffro.]

You guys aren't going to win. It's like trying to convince Galactus not to eat your planet. If you're Reed Richards, you have a shot. Otherwise, you're

[accessndx]

I've seen some cogent data presented that demonstrate the validity of both claims.

 

Clearly there's no scenario that dictates "there's always a premium paid" for PQ, since J has shown examples of it numerous times.

 

There's also ample evidence to suggest that "some folks pay a premium" for PQ, since it's also evident on the GPA and has been anecdotally reported by dealers here......AND if you peruse the sales forum you'll see examples as well.

 

Nobody can be entirely correct because the statistics indicate both trends occur. The real question involves WHY? and WHO? and WHERE?

 

Who sold what where and why did it demand such and such a price. This is where the multitude of different factors create the inherent unpredictability.

 

The examples where PQ did demonstrate a premium price was paid, the difference IMHO was negligible, but I'm sure enough digging will expose outliers that deviate markedly.

 

I've said before that PQ doesn't really influence my decision entirely. But I don't ignore it either. Given two RELATIVELY identical comics in grade and presentation that differ only in PQ, I'd have to opt for the "higher" one. If the PQ is extraordinarily diverse.....like WHITE vs TAN...that's a difference...

But if it comes down to CR/OW or OW/W I don't really put much stock in differentiating.

 

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

I've seen some cogent data presented that demonstrate the validity of both claims.

 

Clearly there's no scenario that dictates "there's always a premium paid" for PQ, since J has shown examples of it numerous times.

 

There's also ample evidence to suggest that "some folks pay a premium" for PQ, since it's also evident on the GPA and has been anecdotally reported by dealers here......AND if you peruse the sales forum you'll see examples as well.

 

Nobody can be entirely correct because the statistics indicate both trends occur. The real question involves WHY? and WHO? and WHERE?

 

Who sold what where and why did it demand such and such a price. This is where the multitude of different factors create the inherent unpredictability.

 

The examples where PQ did demonstrate a premium price was paid, the difference IMHO was negligible, but I'm sure enough digging will expose outliers that deviate markedly.

 

I've said before that PQ doesn't really influence my decision entirely. But I don't ignore it either. Given two RELATIVELY identical comics in grade and presentation that differ only in PQ, I'd have to opt for the "higher" one. If the PQ is extraordinarily diverse.....like WHITE vs TAN...that's a difference...

But if it comes down to CR/OW or OW/W I don't really put much stock in differentiating.

 

 

 

+1

 

Well said.

 

-J.

 

 

[G.A.tor]

I've seen some cogent data presented that demonstrate the validity of both claims.

 

Clearly there's no scenario that dictates "there's always a premium paid" for PQ, since J has shown examples of it numerous times.

 

There's also ample evidence to suggest that "some folks pay a premium" for PQ, since it's also evident on the GPA and has been anecdotally reported by dealers here......AND if you peruse the sales forum you'll see examples as well.

 

Nobody can be entirely correct because the statistics indicate both trends occur. The real question involves WHY? and WHO? and WHERE?

 

Who sold what where and why did it demand such and such a price. This is where the multitude of different factors create the inherent unpredictability.

 

The examples where PQ did demonstrate a premium price was paid, the difference IMHO was negligible, but I'm sure enough digging will expose outliers that deviate markedly.

 

I've said before that PQ doesn't really influence my decision entirely. But I don't ignore it either. Given two RELATIVELY identical comics in grade and presentation that differ only in PQ, I'd have to opt for the "higher" one. If the PQ is extraordinarily diverse.....like WHITE vs TAN...that's a difference...

But if it comes down to CR/OW or OW/W I don't really put much stock in differentiating.

 

 

actually, not a single data point J has listed demonstrates or supports that PQ is indifferent in the realized price when comparing like copies... I looked at the data and in not one instance was there available/sold a comparably graded copy that sold in same venue or even at same time, with differing pq , where an analysis could be drawn...in other words, there was no alternate copy that could have been purchased, so that gpa data is just a single data point independent of every other data point...

 

for example, if a cr/ow copy of a 4.0 sold on 4/12 at $2500, and an ow/w copy of a 4.0 sold at $2400 on 4/12 in the same venue, THEN a statement could be made that PQ likely played no bearing on the price...

 

however, as mentioned, there is not a SINGLE example J provided that demonstrates this...not one...he has listed random data points that represent single sales independent of any other comparable copy being available at a diff price with a diff pq, that a conclusion could be drawn...therefore, he has not supported his position at all, imo ...

 

 

[drbanner]

Wonder if we could gain any insights into the affect page quality has on value/price from the World's Largest Comic Book Dealer?

 

[Jaydogrules]

I've seen some cogent data presented that demonstrate the validity of both claims.

 

Clearly there's no scenario that dictates "there's always a premium paid" for PQ, since J has shown examples of it numerous times.

 

There's also ample evidence to suggest that "some folks pay a premium" for PQ, since it's also evident on the GPA and has been anecdotally reported by dealers here......AND if you peruse the sales forum you'll see examples as well.

 

Nobody can be entirely correct because the statistics indicate both trends occur. The real question involves WHY? and WHO? and WHERE?

 

Who sold what where and why did it demand such and such a price. This is where the multitude of different factors create the inherent unpredictability.

 

The examples where PQ did demonstrate a premium price was paid, the difference IMHO was negligible, but I'm sure enough digging will expose outliers that deviate markedly.

 

I've said before that PQ doesn't really influence my decision entirely. But I don't ignore it either. Given two RELATIVELY identical comics in grade and presentation that differ only in PQ, I'd have to opt for the "higher" one. If the PQ is extraordinarily diverse.....like WHITE vs TAN...that's a difference...

But if it comes down to CR/OW or OW/W I don't really put much stock in differentiating.

 

 

actually, not a single data point J has listed demonstrates or supports that PQ is indifferent in the realized price when comparing like copies... I looked at the data and in not one instance was there available/sold a comparably graded copy that sold in same venue or even at same time, with differing pq , where an analysis could be drawn...in other words, there was no alternate copy that could have been purchased, so that gpa data is just a single data point independent of every other data point...

 

for example, if a cr/ow copy of a 4.0 sold on 4/12 at $2500, and an ow/w copy of a 4.0 sold at $2400 on 4/12 in the same venue, THEN a statement could be made that PQ likely played no bearing on the price...

 

however, as mentioned, there is not a SINGLE example J provided that demonstrates this...not one...he has listed random data points that represent single sales independent of any other comparable copy being available at a diff price with a diff pq, that a conclusion could be drawn...therefore, he has not supported his position at all, imo ...

 

 

Gator, I vociferously (though respectfully) disagree with your application of sales comps. Be the conversation about comics, houses, works of art, antiques, etc, your statements go against all well-settled use of such, while simultaneously debunking your own bases for stating that there "is" a "premium".

 

Again, just because the publicly available sales data doesn't support your own personal experiences or opinions does not make it "not credible".

 

-J.

[drbanner]

Wonder if we could gain any insights into the affect page quality has on value/price from the World's Largest Comic Book Dealer?

I'm starting to see a trend here...

 

[Jaydogrules]

Wonder if we could gain any insights into the affect page quality has on value/price from the World's Largest Comic Book Dealer?

 

 

As far as Hulk 107, ASM 21 etc. pertains to B&B 28.... I would have to say...... no?

 

-J.

[drbanner]

As far as Hulk 107, ASM 21 et al pertains to B&B 28.... I would have to say...... no?

That goal post is moving out of the stadium and towards the tailgaters!

 

I wonder if there are any other such examples on Metro's site...let me do some more research. (thumbs u

[Jaydogrules]

As far as Hulk 107, ASM 21 et al pertains to B&B 28.... I would have to say...... no?

That goal post is moving out of the stadium and towards the tailgaters!

 

I wonder if there are any other such examples on Metro's site...let me do some more research. (thumbs u

 

You're trying to talk about completely different comics and/or by completely different publishers, and you're saying that I'm "moving goal posts"?

 

Come on Doc Banner.

 

-J.

[accessndx]

Gator: Have you never seen a circumstance where a "lesser" PQ sells for an equivalent amt? Just curious.

 

I've said that I've been partner to two scenarios where I in fact contributed to such a circumstance. You can say that "it doesn't typically happen" or "that's not generally expected", but certainly it's happened.

 

Logically it makes sense that folks want the BEST possible thing for the LEAST amount of money. That doesn't always happen and compromises occur.

 

Seems like folks want to stick to their guns about their POV, but I do see that both sides of the coin have merit and there are absolutely no absolutes.

[drbanner]

Somebody get Stephen Fishler on the phone! Not even the Pedigree status could save this poor CR/OW specimen from Stephen's pricing anomalies.

 

[accessndx]

Somebody get Stephen Fishler on the phone! Not even the Pedigree status could save this poor CR/OW specimen from Stephen's pricing anomalies.

 

 

Are these completed sales? Or are they asking prices?

[G.A.tor]

I've seen some cogent data presented that demonstrate the validity of both claims.

 

Clearly there's no scenario that dictates "there's always a premium paid" for PQ, since J has shown examples of it numerous times.

 

There's also ample evidence to suggest that "some folks pay a premium" for PQ, since it's also evident on the GPA and has been anecdotally reported by dealers here......AND if you peruse the sales forum you'll see examples as well.

 

Nobody can be entirely correct because the statistics indicate both trends occur. The real question involves WHY? and WHO? and WHERE?

 

Who sold what where and why did it demand such and such a price. This is where the multitude of different factors create the inherent unpredictability.

 

The examples where PQ did demonstrate a premium price was paid, the difference IMHO was negligible, but I'm sure enough digging will expose outliers that deviate markedly.

 

I've said before that PQ doesn't really influence my decision entirely. But I don't ignore it either. Given two RELATIVELY identical comics in grade and presentation that differ only in PQ, I'd have to opt for the "higher" one. If the PQ is extraordinarily diverse.....like WHITE vs TAN...that's a difference...

But if it comes down to CR/OW or OW/W I don't really put much stock in differentiating.

 

 

actually, not a single data point J has listed demonstrates or supports that PQ is indifferent in the realized price when comparing like copies... I looked at the data and in not one instance was there available/sold a comparably graded copy that sold in same venue or even at same time, with differing pq , where an analysis could be drawn...in other words, there was no alternate copy that could have been purchased, so that gpa data is just a single data point independent of every other data point...

 

for example, if a cr/ow copy of a 4.0 sold on 4/12 at $2500, and an ow/w copy of a 4.0 sold at $2400 on 4/12 in the same venue, THEN a statement could be made that PQ likely played no bearing on the price...

 

however, as mentioned, there is not a SINGLE example J provided that demonstrates this...not one...he has listed random data points that represent single sales independent of any other comparable copy being available at a diff price with a diff pq, that a conclusion could be drawn...therefore, he has not supported his position at all, imo ...

 

 

Gator, I vociferously (though respectfully) disagree with your application of sales comps. Be the conversation about comics, houses, works of art, antiques, etc, your statements go against all well-settled use of such, while simultaneously debunking your own bases for stating that there "is" a "premium".

 

Again, just because the publicly available sales data doesn't support your own personal experiences or opinions does not make it "not credible".

 

-J.

random sales points don't support anyone's opinion...

 

only sales done in a controlled environment can be used to make a comparison statement.....and that's what we are attempting to do right....when one "compares" like copies with diff pq's..

 

also keep in mind, I am generally speaking about pq on all comics, not just BB...I haven't seen any examples were like copies of BB 28 have sold with diff pq, so there is no data to support this particular book, but plenty of data to support the statement in general

 

comps are a great place to start, and sometimes they are valid...just not in this instance...

 

a copy selling in Feb with pq=x cannot be said to have any bearing on what a copy in march with pq=x selling for...nothing...

 

and I'm not using any of this data to support my position because I know the data is not valid for anyone's position...only data I am using is real world examples where I have had comparable copies and the high pq has sold first and at a higher price....

[chrisco37]

Somebody get Stephen Fishler on the phone! Not even the Pedigree status could save this poor CR/OW specimen from Stephen's pricing anomalies.

 

 

Are these completed sales? Or are they asking prices?

 

Asking prices, which are basically as good as completed sales. Have you ever tried to get a discount from Metro?

[namisgr]

The effect of page quality on completed sales was illustrated already from the datamining study of GPA-recorded sales of Hulk 181.

 

The point has made by several thread participants that for low grade comics, variables that affect eye appeal and upgrade potential will have marked effects on sale prices, thereby precluding the validity of any datamining from a small sample size. As this point applies to BB28, there are by far too few GPA-recorded sales over a comparable time frame and at a comparable grade to draw any conclusions about the influence of page quality on sale prices. That's why Hulk 181 was chosen as exemplary, since it's one of the very small handful of comics for which there are sufficient numbers of sales over a short time frame (50 sales in a 1.5 year time frame concentrated in two grades in the aforementioned datamining) to draw statistically valid comparisons on the influence of page quality.