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Brave & Bold #28: Speculation on future pricing
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2,741 posts in this topic

the only way a definitive conclusion can be drawn, is for the variables to be consistent, and there be some control, correct?

 

I've given multiple examples of where near identical books visually, with differing PQ, have sold at the same time (practically) , at the same venue, by the same vendor (me)...

 

most recently, flash 105 (both cgc 5.5)...a cr/ow for 1995 and an ow for 2095. the ow sold for more, first, the cr/ow sold for less , second, all within the "same" venue, etc, with virtually all variables consistent...

 

another example was a Strange tales 110, cgc 5.0 ...one with white pages, one with OW...both sold at same venue, the W page first and for $200 more...the ow second, for $200 less...

 

in SDCC in 2010 I believe (before the GL movie), I did this with SC 22 about 5 times the same weekend....I would put 2 copies out, at the same time, same grade, differing pq being the only real diff...and in all 5 instances, the higher pq sold first, and for more...

 

 

the GPA quoted data by Jaydog comes with unknown variables and no control, and thus, can't be truly "comparable" as evidenced by the lack of support to a consistent statement of preference by the majority of folks discussing...

 

seems reasonable to me (shrug)

 

..... many GPA examples are auction oriented. This makes it hard to determine what a winning bidder would have been willing to pay.... so this would make that type of data difficult to link to an individual's preference. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

exactly...unknown variables...

 

what data can't and doesn't tell you is what one gains from "experience"...selling books to folks in person, year after year, you tend to learn what does affect buying decisions...and PQ absolutely does (not to all, but to the majority)...

 

one doesn't have to quantify that...hearing it from folks in person, and seeing it play out time and time again, is diligence enough to draw a conclusion

 

 

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How about this:

 

photo65_zpsf7d5126f.jpg

photo61_zpsc2d99462.jpg

:cloud9:

This is why collectors have always sought out books with white pages...and have always been willing to pay more for them, CGC or no CGC. :sumo:

 

 

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If auction at the same time, which books will sell for more?

Assuming no upgrade potential

 

This:

RAD280452014627_12912.jpg

 

or that:

RAD6E03A2014616_182533.jpg

 

 

 

I'd probably prefer the first one, without the writing on the cover.

 

How about this:

 

photo65_zpsf7d5126f.jpg

photo61_zpsc2d99462.jpg

photo59_zps2b631da8.jpg

photo60_zps9e0ce452.jpg

photo64_zps43d32547.jpg

photo62_zps2f525470.jpg

 

 

Is it for sale :baiting:

 

Um where?

 

hm

 

Sorry guys...not for sell. ;)

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:shrug:

 

I just want to know where I can buy the 7.5 SC 22 with White pages.

didn't/doesn't peewee own it (shrug)

and didn't I sell it to him (shrug) (I recall him buying a 7.5 from me, but can't recall pq on it...if I had of had multiple 7.5's , I definitely would have remembered the pq lol )

 

Peewee owned the 7.5 OW/W that came from you. ;) That 7.5 went to a few hands...don't know where it is now.

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:shrug:

 

I just want to know where I can buy the 7.5 SC 22 with White pages.

didn't/doesn't peewee own it (shrug)

and didn't I sell it to him (shrug) (I recall him buying a 7.5 from me, but can't recall pq on it...if I had of had multiple 7.5's , I definitely would have remembered the pq lol )

 

Peewee owned the 7.5 OW/W that came from you. ;) That 7.5 went to a few hands...don't know where it is now.

^^
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:shrug:

 

I just want to know where I can buy the 7.5 SC 22 with White pages.

didn't/doesn't peewee own it (shrug)

and didn't I sell it to him (shrug) (I recall him buying a 7.5 from me, but can't recall pq on it...if I had of had multiple 7.5's , I definitely would have remembered the pq lol )

 

Peewee owned the 7.5 OW/W that came from you. ;) That 7.5 went to a few hands...don't know where it is now.

^^

 

Thanks sir! :acclaim:

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How about this:

 

photo65_zpsf7d5126f.jpg

photo61_zpsc2d99462.jpg

:cloud9:

This is why collectors have always sought out books with white pages...and have always been willing to pay more for them, CGC or no CGC. :sumo:

 

 

And your mighty Hulk 1 WP's. Here's the back of the SC22 WP's. <a  href=http://i588.photobucket.com/albums/ss322/richla73/CIMG3458.jpg' alt='CIMG3458.jpg'>

Edited by showcase22gr1959
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the only way a definitive conclusion can be drawn, is for the variables to be consistent, and there be some control, correct?

 

I've given multiple examples of where near identical books visually, with differing PQ, have sold at the same time (practically) , at the same venue, by the same vendor (me)...

 

most recently, flash 105 (both cgc 5.5)...a cr/ow for 1995 and an ow for 2095. the ow sold for more, first, the cr/ow sold for less , second, all within the "same" venue, etc, with virtually all variables consistent...

 

another example was a Strange tales 110, cgc 5.0 ...one with white pages, one with OW...both sold at same venue, the W page first and for $200 more...the ow second, for $200 less...

 

in SDCC in 2010 I believe (before the GL movie), I did this with SC 22 about 5 times the same weekend....I would put 2 copies out, at the same time, same grade, differing pq being the only real diff...and in all 5 instances, the higher pq sold first, and for more...

 

 

the GPA quoted data by Jaydog comes with unknown variables and no control, and thus, can't be truly "comparable" as evidenced by the lack of support to a consistent statement of preference by the majority of folks discussing...

 

seems reasonable to me (shrug)

 

..... many GPA examples are auction oriented. This makes it hard to determine what a winning bidder would have been willing to pay.... so this would make that type of data difficult to link to an individual's preference. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

exactly...unknown variables...

 

what data can't and doesn't tell you is what one gains from "experience"...selling books to folks in person, year after year, you tend to learn what does affect buying decisions...and PQ absolutely does (not to all, but to the majority)...

 

one doesn't have to quantify that...hearing it from folks in person, and seeing it play out time and time again, is diligence enough to draw a conclusion

 

 

The "unknown variables" that you speak of are the very things that prevent the so-called "PQ" on the label from being any consistent or quantifiable determining factor on price. Hence why no "premium" can be proven with any statistical data whatsoever. Word of mouth and "in the trenches" experience is great and has its place. But if it isn't supported (and is in fact utterly contradicted, as I have quite clearly demonstrated yet again) by actual real and hard data, then it is nothing more than "anecdote".

 

It is simply unreasonable for one to choose to ignore real and hard data and facts simply because it does not jibe with their own personal opinions, biases, preferences and pre-conceived notions.

 

-J.

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No longer have the 7.5. :sorry:

 

You'll be the first one if I decide....because you almost pried it off my hands years ago ;)

 

:cry:

 

Maybe...another one will show up.. :cool:

 

hm:wishluck:

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No longer have the 7.5. :sorry:

 

You'll be the first one if I decide....because you almost pried it off my hands years ago ;)

 

:cry:

 

Maybe...another one will show up.. :cool:

 

I was considering asking you to trade your SC22 8.5 for my SC4 5.5 OW, but you have a SC4 7.5 already....

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If auction at the same time, which books will sell for more?

Assuming no upgrade potential

 

This:

RAD280452014627_12912.jpg

 

or that:

RAD6E03A2014616_182533.jpg

 

 

 

I'd probably prefer the first one, without the writing on the cover.

 

How about this:

 

photo65_zpsf7d5126f.jpg

photo61_zpsc2d99462.jpg

photo59_zps2b631da8.jpg

photo60_zps9e0ce452.jpg

photo64_zps43d32547.jpg

photo62_zps2f525470.jpg

 

I'm not the guy to ask, I wouldn't buy any of them (too high grade).

 

But the point being made was there are other things that could influence what price was realized - someone doesn't like writing, someone doesn't like the corners on the new one you posted, someone just had to have that book, there were TWO people who just had to have the book so the auction went higher than expected, someone thinks the PQ rating is wildly arbitrary and puts no stock in it, etc. Yes, if two identical books except for PQ went up for sale on the same website in auctions that ended at the exact same time (since someone who lost the first might bid on the second), it seems highly likely that the better PQ book would (almost certainly) sell for more. But there never ARE two identical books, much less the other requirements.

 

So, yeah, in theory a better PQ will fetch a better price, but from what I've seen here, it doesn't seem like in practice you can really say that.

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the only way a definitive conclusion can be drawn, is for the variables to be consistent, and there be some control, correct?

 

I've given multiple examples of where near identical books visually, with differing PQ, have sold at the same time (practically) , at the same venue, by the same vendor (me)...

 

most recently, flash 105 (both cgc 5.5)...a cr/ow for 1995 and an ow for 2095. the ow sold for more, first, the cr/ow sold for less , second, all within the "same" venue, etc, with virtually all variables consistent...

 

another example was a Strange tales 110, cgc 5.0 ...one with white pages, one with OW...both sold at same venue, the W page first and for $200 more...the ow second, for $200 less...

 

in SDCC in 2010 I believe (before the GL movie), I did this with SC 22 about 5 times the same weekend....I would put 2 copies out, at the same time, same grade, differing pq being the only real diff...and in all 5 instances, the higher pq sold first, and for more...

 

 

the GPA quoted data by Jaydog comes with unknown variables and no control, and thus, can't be truly "comparable" as evidenced by the lack of support to a consistent statement of preference by the majority of folks discussing...

 

seems reasonable to me (shrug)

 

..... many GPA examples are auction oriented. This makes it hard to determine what a winning bidder would have been willing to pay.... so this would make that type of data difficult to link to an individual's preference. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

exactly...unknown variables...

 

what data can't and doesn't tell you is what one gains from "experience"...selling books to folks in person, year after year, you tend to learn what does affect buying decisions...and PQ absolutely does (not to all, but to the majority)...

 

one doesn't have to quantify that...hearing it from folks in person, and seeing it play out time and time again, is diligence enough to draw a conclusion

 

 

The "unknown variables" that you speak of are the very things that prevent the so-called "PQ" on the label from being any consistent or quantifiable determining factor on price. Hence why no "premium" can be proven with any statistical data whatsoever. Word of mouth and "in the trenches" experience is great and has its place. But if it isn't supported (and is in fact utterly contradicted, as I have quite clearly demonstrated yet again) by actual real and hard data, then it is nothing more than "anecdote".

 

It is simply unreasonable for one to choose to ignore real and hard data and facts simply because it does not jibe with their own personal opinions, biases, preferences and pre-conceived notions.

 

-J.

unfortunately J, your data is not valid or applicable because you don't have any (scientific) control... you can't say what caused the price variance for this reason...and therefor your data says nothing specific in regards to how pq may or may not affect price...

 

in my data, I have controls in place (same venue, same time frame, same sales person/tactic, same potential pool of buyers), and so I can monitor the effect one variable has on a buyers purchasing decision (PQ in my examples)...

 

so there is nothing anecdotal about my results, I have provided hard , real data....they prove my hypothesis (thumbs u

 

 

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No longer have the 7.5. :sorry:

 

You'll be the first one if I decide....because you almost pried it off my hands years ago ;)

 

:cry:

 

Maybe...another one will show up.. :cool:

 

I was considering asking you to trade your SC22 8.5 for my SC4 5.5 OW, but you have a SC4 7.5 already....

 

Thanks for thinking of me. :) There hasn't been any new SC22 in 8.5+ in the CGC census for about five years. The last 8.0 sold in Heritage in 2013...it tells me SC22 is very rare in 8.5+....anything 7.0+ plus is tough.

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the only way a definitive conclusion can be drawn, is for the variables to be consistent, and there be some control, correct?

 

I've given multiple examples of where near identical books visually, with differing PQ, have sold at the same time (practically) , at the same venue, by the same vendor (me)...

 

most recently, flash 105 (both cgc 5.5)...a cr/ow for 1995 and an ow for 2095. the ow sold for more, first, the cr/ow sold for less , second, all within the "same" venue, etc, with virtually all variables consistent...

 

another example was a Strange tales 110, cgc 5.0 ...one with white pages, one with OW...both sold at same venue, the W page first and for $200 more...the ow second, for $200 less...

 

in SDCC in 2010 I believe (before the GL movie), I did this with SC 22 about 5 times the same weekend....I would put 2 copies out, at the same time, same grade, differing pq being the only real diff...and in all 5 instances, the higher pq sold first, and for more...

 

 

the GPA quoted data by Jaydog comes with unknown variables and no control, and thus, can't be truly "comparable" as evidenced by the lack of support to a consistent statement of preference by the majority of folks discussing...

 

seems reasonable to me (shrug)

 

..... many GPA examples are auction oriented. This makes it hard to determine what a winning bidder would have been willing to pay.... so this would make that type of data difficult to link to an individual's preference. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

exactly...unknown variables...

 

what data can't and doesn't tell you is what one gains from "experience"...selling books to folks in person, year after year, you tend to learn what does affect buying decisions...and PQ absolutely does (not to all, but to the majority)...

 

one doesn't have to quantify that...hearing it from folks in person, and seeing it play out time and time again, is diligence enough to draw a conclusion

 

 

The "unknown variables" that you speak of are the very things that prevent the so-called "PQ" on the label from being any consistent or quantifiable determining factor on price. Hence why no "premium" can be proven with any statistical data whatsoever. Word of mouth and "in the trenches" experience is great and has its place. But if it isn't supported (and is in fact utterly contradicted, as I have quite clearly demonstrated yet again) by actual real and hard data, then it is nothing more than "anecdote".

 

It is simply unreasonable for one to choose to ignore real and hard data and facts simply because it does not jibe with their own personal opinions, biases, preferences and pre-conceived notions.

 

-J.

 

unfortunately J, your data is not valid or applicable because you don't have any (scientific) control... you can't say what caused the price variance for this reason...and therefor your data says nothing specific in regards to how pq may or may not affect price...

 

in my data, I have controls in place (same venue, same time frame, same sales person/tactic, same potential pool of buyers), and so I can monitor the effect one variable has on a buyers purchasing decision (PQ in my examples)...

 

so there is nothing anecdotal about my results....they prove my hypothesis (thumbs u

 

 

Clink auctions used to run auctions with books in the exact same grade, but there would be a White page example and a non-White page example in the same auction finishing at the same time.

 

More often than not the White page copy finished with a higher price.

 

The entire reason they ran them together is because they knew specific buyers would target White pagers. They did this for years. Don't know if they still do.

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