2013 May 16 - 17 Vintage Comics & Comic Art Signature Auction

[Kevin76]

Currently the high bidder on the ASM 324

 

How high are you willing to go? No, I'm not bidding on it

[suspense39]

I hate that system...no matter how much you over estimate its never as much as it will actually be.......i like comiccconnect it is super straight forward No added fees and shipping is very reasonable, comiclink is a close second in terms of my preference.

 

[delekkerste]

When there are multiple pieces I am very interested in, I sometimes bid aggressively on a piece I suspect may be out of my range. If I am outbid in the internet bidding, I know that I am not a serious contender. In this way, I am not mentally committing $xxxx to an item that I may get blown out of the water on anyway.

 

If I am interested in only one or two items, I don't get serious until the final session.

 

I do the same thing. It has been extremely helpful in this auction; out of maybe half a dozen pieces I was interested in, I've managed to steer prices up to and past my max price on all but two lots already (plus a few lower end items). So, I know I can just concentrate on the remaining two pieces in the next few days and eliminate the rest from my radar. Early bidding leading to price discovery = crazy? Crazy like a fox maybe. My philosophy is that prices are going to end about the same regardless of when bids are placed - I'd rather have useful price information feedback that I can use in my bidding strategy earlier rather than later.

[Bronty]

I know you wont agree with this Gene but I think there are times that costs you money. After all everyone gets that same info early as well. Consider this situation:

 

You like a piece a lot and your estate of fmv is 7500. You are willing to bid 10k.

 

Your sole competitor likes it too (and likes to bid early as well). However, he judges the fmv a little differently and estimates it at 5000. He's willing to go to 7000.

 

You both bid early and it gets bid up to 7000. Your competitor sees the bid and wants to forget about the piece but he cant. After a few days to ruminate the piece grows and grows on him. He wonders if he didnt misjudge fmv. He revises his estimated fmv to 7500 and decides he is willing to bid 9500.

 

Bidding late, he would have folded at 7k. With extra time, he has bid you up to your max.

 

I dont think this is a far fetched scenario!

[Bronty]

Maybe youre willing to pay for that price discovery info as it wont always cost you but i would say its also not always free..

[dem1138]

I think it makes a lot of strategic sense to be wary that by knocking out the other bidders today that one of them might come back stronger at the end. Whereas at the last minute they may not have enough time to emotionally come to terms with the need to come back stronger. In the end it could wind up costing you more but at the same rate, if you're bidding on 20 items, Gene's strategy does make a lot of sense in helping you separate what you realistically have a shot on from what you don't - and that has value as well.

[malvin]

bids early in the auction definitely influence the final price. I always change my snipe depending on the price of the item as it progresses towards the end.

 

Malvin

[lb jefferies]

I think it makes a lot of strategic sense to be wary that by knocking out the other bidders today that one of them might come back stronger at the end. Whereas at the last minute they may not have enough time to emotionally come to terms with the need to come back stronger. In the end it could wind up costing you more but at the same rate, if you're bidding on 20 items, Gene's strategy does make a lot of sense in helping you separate what you realistically have a shot on from what you don't - and that has value as well.

 

So by this rationale do you agree that bidding early is counter-productive if there is one and only one piece that you want to win?

[suspense39]

I think it makes a lot of strategic sense to be wary that by knocking out the other bidders today that one of them might come back stronger at the end. Whereas at the last minute they may not have enough time to emotionally come to terms with the need to come back stronger. In the end it could wind up costing you more but at the same rate, if you're bidding on 20 items, Gene's strategy does make a lot of sense in helping you separate what you realistically have a shot on from what you don't - and that has value as well.

 

So by this rationale do you agree that bidding early is counter-productive if there is one and only one piece that you want to win?

 

im only looking at two pieces, so thats how i'm playing it....last minute

[Tokay]

Yep, if I'm looking at one or two items, I wait until the last minute. As stated earlier, it gives potential competitors less time to get comfortable if the price goes above their initial max. Unfortunately, I don't have much focus in my collecting, so there are always 5-8 items that interest me greatly, and early price discovery benefits me usually.

[Bronty]

Good discussion. I think his all makes sense. The more items you are looking at the more. Idding early makes some sense and vice versa if only interested in a couple.

[alxjhnsn]

Bidding late, [your competitor] would have folded at 7k. With extra time, he has bid you up to your max. I dont think this is a far fetched scenario!

I strongly agree. I bid as late as I can because I don't like people bidding me up above their "max."

 

I also bid my max and win or lose, I'm happy.

[dem1138]

 

I also bid my max and win or lose, I'm happy.

 

This is the most rational strategy but it takes a lot of discipline. This is my strategy to prepare beforehand when I'm in a reasonable state of mind. Sometimes it can be hard to keep to your max but I've found that I'm rarely regretful afterwards if I do or don't win.

[SuperBird]

My tastes are pretty limited, so it's easier for me as I only want 1-2 things in each auction. I just wait til the last hour, bid my max, then forget about it.

[delekkerste]

I dont think this is a far fetched scenario!

 

I can't point to any data (because there isn't any that's publicly available) to support my case, but my gut tells me that it happens a lot less than people think. Plus, bidding things up early in the Internet session also has another potential benefit that I didn't mention - it can potentially kill any momentum in the live session if you start off at a high enough price that a frenzy doesn't really develop.

 

I think the only real danger of bidding early and often is on a piece where it is genuinely difficult to ascertain its value and/or if you are planning to bid much higher than the consensus believes something is worth. In those cases, I can totally see why you would want to limit price discovery. But, in most cases, I think prices are usually going to settle at the same point regardless of when the bids are placed, so you might as well take advantage of the information embedded in prices.

[dem1138]

It would be interesting to pour through the data of what the bid was at the end of internet bidding and at the end of the auction. You could then determine what items, if any, caused the most disparity (if there were any).

[jjonahjameson1]

My bidding strategy is based on my tolerance for Kraft Dinner. The higher I bid, the longer I have to eat Mac & Cheese

[Bronty]

I dont think this is a far fetched scenario!

 

Plus, bidding things up early in the Internet session also has another potential benefit that I didn't mention - it can potentially kill any momentum in the live session if you start off at a high enough price that a frenzy doesn't really develop.

 

 

Very true, that's another benefit. That can go the other way too though... high bidding early can make people think... huh, everybody else wants it, it must be better than I thought... the psychology of collecting... they want it, so I want it.

 

Or......... it can give people time to find extra money they didn't think they needed... sell something else... etc etc.

 

There's all kinds of potential situations where it could cost or benefit you, but that's my point. I don't think bidding early is always the best answer, although you're right to point out that it can be.

 

Speaking personally, I don't bid on heritage that much, but when I do bid early on something its not even out of strategy, but rather because, well... I don't have all day to wait for the lot to come up, or it would take too many "marital points" to neglect the family for the day while I muck around on the computer, or what have you.

 

I.e. life gets in the way so sometimes.

[SuperBird]

My bidding strategy is based on my tolerance for Kraft Dinner. The higher I bid, the longer I have to eat Mac & Cheese

 

[Pete Marino]

My bidding strategy is based on my tolerance for Kraft Dinner. The higher I bid, the longer I have to eat Mac & Cheese

 

 

You are livin' large. I go by if Ramen Noodles start to look appetizing... Best $0.20 meal you can find around! Just add Water