High grade non-keys losing value?

[rjpb]

The exact same (unique) book popping up in a high profile auction has always been a recipe for disaster, though.

 

 

People see it, get the impression that something wrong with it and then avoid it.

 

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

 

Collectors often want something that someone else wants. If the collector becomes aware that nobody wants it, then they don't want it either.

 

We're wired that way.

 

Look at the OA world. They're masters at picking into that psychology and profiting from it.

 

 

 

This is true in all walks of life. Even in a tight real estate market, a house tends to sell cheaper if it falls out of escrow and comes back on the market than it originally would have.

[adamstrange]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

 

I had to look him up and then check the Heritage archives which were helpful in listing in his name in the descriptions when he sold a lot of stuff in 2009/2010. Apparently a TX real estate millionaire who overpaid earlier in the decade and might have been hurt further by the sheer glut of high grade pedigree books he dumped at one time.

 

Still the first book that pops up in the Heritage archives illustrates the point. An Adventure 100 in 9.4 purchased in 2004 for $4715, and sold as a Keller book in 2010 for $1912, and then subsequently sold twice in 2011, the first time for $1553 and then six months late for $1314 ( below current OSPG 9.0 value). Keller ( assuming he was the 2004 buyer) definitely overpaid, as the other 9.4 in the archives sold for $2300 in 2003 and then again in 2006 for $3883. The 2006 resale price may have been influenced by Keller's purchase in 2004, but the book appears to be slowly declining in value well below to what the other 9.4 sold for 10 years ago.

 

Granted, it's just one book, and Adventures without S&K stories have generally been fairly low interest books. I randomly clicked on other Keller books, looking for ones with sale histories other than just his purchase and sale, and came up with a Marvel Mystery 75 in 9.4, which sold for $2760 in 2002, and then likely bought by Keller in 2004 for $3350, and sold as a Keller book in 2009 for $2091, a notable decline from it's 2002 price.

 

I'm not a doomsayer, believing that the GA market is about to crash. There seem to be enough younger collectors coming on board to replace the geezers as they sell off, at least in the short run, and low-mid grade non-key superhero books from the 40s seem to sell for as much as they ever have by and large, and "hot" books still break new records. I was just observing that on average high grade non-key books may have been one of the weaker investments one could have made 2002-2008, and the market may not yet be done declining.

 

Keller's books generally sold for 1/3 to 1/2 of what he originally paid as he was involved in auction "death matches" with others who were after books that were mostly fresh to the market.

 

In general, collectors don't like to see a book come on the market multiple times in a short space of time and collectors who bid in Round 1 won't necessarily participate in Round 2. I know this was the case with at least a few bidders who were underbidders to Keller who then subsequently didn't bid in Round 2 or who's enthusiasm waned and who weren't as aggressive when Keller exited the hobby.

 

I think the Adv 100 that sold twice in 2011 after being sold in 2010 is an excellent example of what can happen when a book gets over-exposed.

[adamstrange]

I have noticed this trend for sure. I have been collecting HG for years, but I am more uncomfortable paying what I used to pay due to a number of factors.

 

I agree with aman... In the CGC early days, a top census 9.4 seemed unbeatable. But due to the expansion of the census, I have lost money buying the "single highest graded 9.4" when a 9.6 pops up..

 

And with the prevalence of pressing, HG collectors are getting very discerning. The supply and demand ratio is skewed these days, and I get uneasy buying top census when there are 3 second place books a notch behind.

My very first posts on this forum in 2005 were related to the scarcity of high grade copies. The contention of many boardies was that the many books didn't exist above a certain grade.

 

Having collected for many years prior to the advent of CGC I had knowledge of many copies of books that were not slabbed (and not likely to be slabbed in the near future). Even today, 13 years after the advent of CGC, there still remain large numbers of high grade comics that some uncooperative old-fashioned collectors refuse to slab.

[VintageComics]

I tend to agree with tth2 - a 5 year rule (minimum) for a higher profile book returning to market seems to be the rule of thumb.

[markseifert]

In general, collectors don't like to see a book come on the market multiple times in a short space of time and collectors who bid in Round 1 won't necessarily participate in Round 2. I know this was the case with at least a few bidders who were underbidders to Keller who then subsequently didn't bid in Round 2 or who's enthusiasm waned and who weren't as aggressive when Keller exited the hobby.

 

I think the Adv 100 that sold twice in 2011 after being sold in 2010 is an excellent example of what can happen when a book gets over-exposed.

 

I think this is the most important part of the conversation, and I think "aren't as aggressive" is the key part of that.

 

In the 90s (and before), if you saw a really nice example of a book you wanted, you thought to yourself "SPOON! If I don't jump on this now I'll never see one that nice again!"

 

When is the last time any of us here thought that about any book we've seen for sale in the past few years? That very book is not unlikely to show up on the market again before too long. And in the meantime, there's plenty else you can spend your money on in absolutely loaded-with-great-stuff auctions, every single month.

[Sqeggs]

The exact same (unique) book popping up in a high profile auction has always been a recipe for disaster, though.

 

 

People see it, get the impression that something wrong with it and then avoid it.

 

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

 

Collectors often want something that someone else wants. If the collector becomes aware that nobody wants it, then they don't want it either.

 

We're wired that way.

 

Look at the OA world. They're masters at picking into that psychology and profiting from it.

 

 

 

I think another factor is that these days people collecting long runs, particularly of books like Adventure are pretty scarce -- they may not even exist. if people are just looking for a representative book here or there, maybe a pedigree, maybe a classic cover-- or at least an interesting cover --it may not take much for them to pass on a particular book. Buying a book like Adventure 100 as an investment isn't likely to end well.

[VintageComics]

The exact same (unique) book popping up in a high profile auction has always been a recipe for disaster, though.

 

 

People see it, get the impression that something wrong with it and then avoid it.

 

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

 

Collectors often want something that someone else wants. If the collector becomes aware that nobody wants it, then they don't want it either.

 

We're wired that way.

 

Look at the OA world. They're masters at picking into that psychology and profiting from it.

 

 

 

I think another factor is that these days people collecting long runs, particularly of books like Adventure are pretty scarce -- they may not even exist. if people are just looking for a representative book here or there, maybe a pedigree, maybe a classic cover-- or at least an interesting cover --it may not take much for them to pass on a particular book. Buying a book like Adventure 100 as an investment isn't likely to end well.

 

The flip side of the coin is that there are plenty of people that would LOVE to collect a run of Adventure but because it's so expensive (relatively speaking), it's prohibitive.

 

That's one of the reasons I said it's cyclical. As new paradigms arrive, the rest of the field (or matrix) adjusts.

 

Because CGC had such an impact on consumer confidence and help spur the increase in prices in the early 2000's, many runs quickly became out of reach for the average person. If those runs drop in price, they become more attractive (especially if surrounding titles stabilize as well) causing a resurgence.

 

Pre Code Horror, Nedors, Fawcetts are all good examples of these theories. Many of these books sat dormant for years while other titles increased in prices...now they look relatively cheap and are picking up steam again.

 

 

 

 

[MrBedrock]

Whenever I hear about paradigms shifting and matrix fields adjusting I zone out.

So, in an attempt to help get Roy's very valid point across let me dummy (my field of expertise) it down a bit...

 

Some days it's chicken salad, some days it's chicken sh....

Every dog has it's day....

Some books are hot, some are cold. Later it's usually the other way around (thumbs u

[jimjum12]

Whenever I hear about paradigms shifting and matrix fields adjusting I zone out.

So, in an attempt to help get Roy's very valid point across let me dummy (my field of expertise) it down a bit...

 

Some days it's chicken salad, some days it's chicken sh....

Every dog has it's day....

Some books are hot, some are cold. Later it's usually the other way around (thumbs u

 

....... chicken one day, feathers the next............. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[originalisbest]

Whenever I hear about paradigms shifting and matrix fields adjusting I zone out.

So, in an attempt to help get Roy's very valid point across let me dummy (my field of expertise) it down a bit...

 

Some days it's chicken salad, some days it's chicken sh....

Every dog has it's day....

Some books are hot, some are cold. Later it's usually the other way around (thumbs u

 

I like this! Except Dan is always insistent that Fawcetts are dead, dead, dead, and that's the end!

[rjpb]

Whenever I hear about paradigms shifting and matrix fields adjusting I zone out.

So, in an attempt to help get Roy's very valid point across let me dummy (my field of expertise) it down a bit...

 

Some days it's chicken salad, some days it's chicken sh....

Every dog has it's day....

Some books are hot, some are cold. Later it's usually the other way around (thumbs u

 

So should I start hoarding copies of True Comics for their eventual day in the sun?

[VintageComics]

Roy's very valid point

 

That might be the nicest thing you've ever said to me.

[tb]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

[jimbo_707]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

How old were you when you started collecting? I haven't known many collectors who started as adults; most people I know who collect were already somewhat interested in comic books in their teens or earlier.

[Mmehdy]

 

As I have been talking about over in general, the rash of new undetectable resto has pushed the your old highest graded 9.4 to 3 plus and a new 9.6.

 

Only the cream top books are safe and sane now.

 

Folks you just cannot afford to spend 20K on the supposed highest graded copies of a non cream book. You are gonna take a hit...big time

 

Because of a number of different factors, I am no longer in support of the blue, green and purple system. It encourages greedy money hungry non-comic book collectors to come up with a way to " beat the system by a couple of grades".

The system has to change in order to create price stability and the sanity of our comic book world. The following changes should occur over the next couple of years.

 

1- one color universal holder which authenticates the comic book as original

 

2- a 10 point grading system which subtracts for tape, repair,pressing, face jobbing,and staple replacement. and any other alteration done to the book.

 

3-a comic book repair alert system which informs all members of undetectable restoration which has been discovered or suspected. Direct email, etc

 

4- the restoration of sanity both in terms of a reduction of greed as collectors, and a solid base of constant returns so that your kids are not left holding 50% of what you paid minus the 10% to 20% auction fees....leaving about 1/3 or what you invested or bought it for.

[originalisbest]

As I have been talking about over in general, the rash of new undetectable resto has pushed the your old highest graded 9.4 to 3 plus and a new 9.6.

 

Only the cream top books are safe and sane now.

 

Folks you just cannot afford to spend 20K on the supposed highest graded copies of a non cream book. You are gonna take a hit...big time

 

Because of a number of different factors, I am no longer in support of the blue, green and purple system. It encourages greedy money hungry non-comic book collectors to come up with a way to " beat the system by a couple of grades".

The system has to change in order to create price stability and the sanity of our comic book world. The following changes should occur over the next couple of years.

 

1- one color universal holder which authenticates the comic book as original

 

2- a 10 point grading system which subtracts for tape, repair,pressing, face jobbing,and staple replacement. and any other alteration done to the book.

 

3-a comic book repair alert system which informs all members of undetectable restoration which has been discovered or suspected. Direct email, etc

 

4- the restoration of sanity both in terms of a reduction of greed as collectors, and a solid base of constant returns so that your kids are not left holding 50% of what you paid minus the 10% to 20% auction fees....leaving about 1/3 or what you invested or bought it for.

 

 

reduce the greed of collectors (while ensuring constant returns, that should work)

 

"fink" on books with "suspected" repairs (even if they can't be detected) (that wouldn't be used to "talk down" others' books, nope, not at all)

 

"non cream book" - I love it

[Aman619]

Whenever I hear about paradigms shifting and matrix fields adjusting I zone out.

So, in an attempt to help get Roy's very valid point across let me dummy (my field of expertise) it down a bit...

 

Some days it's chicken salad, some days it's chicken sh....

Every dog has it's day....

Some books are hot, some are cold. Later it's usually the other way around (thumbs u

 

thats always been a part of the equation, I agree. But more so back in the normal pre-CGC days, when all books were cheap, and steadily increasing in value. But today, after the CGC infusion of crystal meth on the market (not their fault, we collectors all jumped in and got excited and paid ever increasing prices for HG copies -- remember the expression "the madness starts at 9.6?? thats back when a good old 9.4 was considered HG enough!)

 

.. now after the binge buying of the last decade, yes, the cycle of hot books cold book still exists, but prices overall have softened from their highs.

 

if you ask me, the future still looks bright for comics, but the further you go out, the list of sure fire comics gets pretty small. Big time first appearances of the most visible characters --- (so long the the number of copies still exceeds the buyer pool! (not a guarantee for many SA and BA books going forward...))

 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

I expect to see everything spiral to zero in the next 50 years: I just don't think people in the 2nd half of the 21st century will be particularly interested in 20th-century pop-culture ephemera. I expect prices on mega-keys to remain stable over the next decade, though, because conspicuous consumption will keep prices elevated on those books.

 

Incidentally, when I was younger, almost everyone I knew collected something--comic books, coins, stamps, baseball cards, bottle caps, whatever. I now work as a teacher, and I don't see any of my students collecting anything. It's as if the ritual of collecting just didn't get passed along to generation Y2K, probably because most of them are living virtual lives online.

 

That's an interesting observation. Another trend, though, is that today's geeks, which I assume are one of the most likely demographics to become future collectors, will grow up to higher incomes than for any generation before them. I am living proof of that happening already.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]

There are many factors that either directly or indirectly impact market stability. Some are obvious; others, more elusive. I doubt that anyone can predict with certainty where things are headed, but these indicators seem relevant (opinions welcomed):

 

1. Artificially inflated auction prices skew market values. Surcharges (buyer premiums) and dueling bidders inflate the value of collectibles to unrealistic proportions which may not be reflected in subsequent auction/private sales of similar books & grades over a short period of time. This may contribute to a false perception of downward trending.

 

2. OS Price Guide, CGC census and GPA. These are all useful tools, but none provide uniformly accurate information except in the abstract. OS tends to be conservative (slow to change) and fails to take into account the value of rarer books which don't occur in higher grades (also, no guidance is provided above 9.2), the CGC census has only marginal accuracy as raw resubs w/o labels can be counted two or more times leaving misleading duplications in the census, and GPA misses many private sales & C-Link auction results limiting it's usefulness for tracking trends and negotiating fair prices.

 

3. Crack & press resubmission. This complicates evaluating HG book values with any consistency as speculators roll the dice repeatedly seeking an elusive grade bump. It also has the potential for destabilizing top end market values, not to mention placing fragile books at risk. Note: I'm not opposed to pressing for legitimate grade reevaluation, but this should be used sparingly on a case by case basis. Some books should never be pressed, much less repressed, and I'm sure we can all point to examples of books that have suffered irreparable damage from the process.

 

4. Reliable restoration detection and eventual acceptance. In one sense I agree with Mitch that undetected restoration can have a devastating impact on comic values and trust, but I have a different view on how to address this issue. I see comics from the perspective of the more sophisticated antiquities trade (maps, old manuscripts, rare books, historical documents and miscellaneous aging paper ephemera), with the value of professionally restored books being a greater percentage of unrestored values than accepted today. IOW, in addition to reliable detection the collecting community needs to be better educated that professionally restored books are more than just recyclable boat anchors.

 

5. Other variables that continue to influence comic markets:

 

>>>>> A. Movies - Popular superhero flicks provide momentum and fuel speculation. This is especially true of successful franchises, but across the board the collector market is buoyed by the general Public's continued fascination with superheroes.

 

>>>>> B. New collectors entering the market and GA relevance - This is an unpredictable factor, but given the nature of the hobby and tendency among many SA-Modern collectors to move beyond their comfort zones into rarer GA collectibles there seems little to worry about in the near term.

 

>>>>> C. Reboots and changing trends (digital vs paper, etc.) - Another unpredictable factor, but not one that would necessarily impact the desirability of owning older, rarer, uniquely fragile paper collectibles.

 

>>>>> D. Economic factors - Overall, the recession had negligible impact on GA book values as at least one HG pedigree collection and several smaller collections reached the market under tough economic conditions and were easily absorbed.

 

>>>>> E. Reprints - HC and soft-cover archival editions keep the GA & SA alive fueling fan interest in the more desirable originals.

 

From my POV collectors should take the long view perspective rather than stressing over short term gains or loses. Some trends are obvious, others defy prediction and are impacted by as few as two or three deep pocket investors entering the market with an agenda (such as competition over the acquisition of specific books, pedigrees or highest graded copies).

 

Given the fact that we're just entering a period of economic recovery, it's too soon to predict any trends in respect to high, middle or low grade books based upon prices realized ten years ago when CGC was still gaining momentum and acceptance, let alone at the height of the recession when things should've been much shakier market-wise. My (and a bit more). [/font]

[tth2]

Just based on researching random comics in the Heritage archives that I'm interested in, it seems that many high grade books have sold in the last couple for far less than they did 5-10 years ago, even while low to mid grade copies have risen in value.

I think if you throw out the Gary Keller books, then the decline of high grade is not as dramatic as it may otherwise seem.

Those and duck books.

I thought duck books peaked at just the right time!

[tth2]

Psychology plays a large part in collecting. How many times have you ever heard someone say "Oh, I would soooo have bought that at that price" and then offered them the same book. They're no longer interested.

That's not collector psychology, that's just the reality that the vast majority of people are full of BS and will back down when they're asked to put their money where their mouth is.