Amazing Fantasy 15 - Numbers of Copies in Existence v. Original Print Run? 0

[cloudofwit]

I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

I suspect that there could be quite a few more high grade copies out there somewhere than most members on this board suspect. Quite simply I don't believe that the members of this board as a group are a statistically representative sample of the universe of comic collectors. Those collectors least inclined to consider slabbing their collections are also much less likely to be interested in joining this forum where so much of the discussions concerns various facets of slabbing and the comics that have been slabbed. Therefore being more heavily exposed to the subset of collectors more inclined to slab their comics would tend to cause the members of this board to think that a greater proportion of the universe of existing comics has been slabbed. After all, it's a common trait for people to generalize from their own personal experience.

 

 

Didn't Rick/GAtor post someplace that he has a friend with some insane amount (was it 50 or so) of raw high grade copies that he accumulated over the years and was now starting to trickle out? I would not be surprised if there are more people out there with smaller high grade stashes as well.

 

Your memory is on the path. It was in the AF #15 Club thread about a year ago. This anonymous Boardie is mainly a Golden Age collector (collecting for 4 decades), but has hoarded all the Silver Age keys--including some keys where he has dozens of copies. His short box of AF #15s numbers 65 copies, ranging from FR to NM (likely most are in mid-grade range--though one has been slabbed and scored above a 9.0). The mind boggles.

 

Although I've summed up most of it, the page #s in the AF #15 Club thread to check out G.A.tor's exact words are: 654; 657-658; and 660. Sorry, no links.

 

As for the AF #15 population, G.A.tor thinks that 10,000 is a conservative estimate. He's going by the 250K print run he's heard of and thinks 5-10% remaining would be reasonable (so, 12K to 25K total). For those not in the know, G.A.tor has the street cred, I hear.

Edited November 14, 2013 by cloudofwit

[kimik]

I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

I suspect that there could be quite a few more high grade copies out there somewhere than most members on this board suspect. Quite simply I don't believe that the members of this board as a group are a statistically representative sample of the universe of comic collectors. Those collectors least inclined to consider slabbing their collections are also much less likely to be interested in joining this forum where so much of the discussions concerns various facets of slabbing and the comics that have been slabbed. Therefore being more heavily exposed to the subset of collectors more inclined to slab their comics would tend to cause the members of this board to think that a greater proportion of the universe of existing comics has been slabbed. After all, it's a common trait for people to generalize from their own personal experience.

 

 

Didn't Rick/GAtor post someplace that he has a friend with some insane amount (was it 50 or so) of raw high grade copies that he accumulated over the years and was now starting to trickle out? I would not be surprised if there are more people out there with smaller high grade stashes as well.

 

Your memory is on the path. It was in the AF #15 Club thread about a year ago. This anonymous Boardie is mainly a Golden Age collector (collecting for 4 decades), but has hoarded all the Silver Age keys--including some keys where he has dozens of copies. His short box of AF #15s numbers 65 copies, ranging from FR to NM (likely most are in mid-grade range--though one has been slabbed and scored above a 9.0). The mind boggles.

 

Although I've summed up most of it, the page #s in the AF #15 Club thread to check out G.A.tor's exact words are: 654; 657-658; and 660. Sorry, no links.

 

As for the AF #15 population, G.A.tor thinks that 10,000 is a conservative estimate. He's going by the 250K print run he's heard of and thinks 5-10% remaining would be reasonable (so, 12K to 25K total). For those not in the know, G.A.tor has the street cred, I hear.

 

The 10,000 estimate is probably just the number of copies he has had go through his hands over the years of wheeling and dealing. (thumbs u

[cloudofwit]

I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

I suspect that there could be quite a few more high grade copies out there somewhere than most members on this board suspect. Quite simply I don't believe that the members of this board as a group are a statistically representative sample of the universe of comic collectors. Those collectors least inclined to consider slabbing their collections are also much less likely to be interested in joining this forum where so much of the discussions concerns various facets of slabbing and the comics that have been slabbed. Therefore being more heavily exposed to the subset of collectors more inclined to slab their comics would tend to cause the members of this board to think that a greater proportion of the universe of existing comics has been slabbed. After all, it's a common trait for people to generalize from their own personal experience.

 

 

Didn't Rick/GAtor post someplace that he has a friend with some insane amount (was it 50 or so) of raw high grade copies that he accumulated over the years and was now starting to trickle out? I would not be surprised if there are more people out there with smaller high grade stashes as well.

 

Your memory is on the path. It was in the AF #15 Club thread about a year ago. This anonymous Boardie is mainly a Golden Age collector (collecting for 4 decades), but has hoarded all the Silver Age keys--including some keys where he has dozens of copies. His short box of AF #15s numbers 65 copies, ranging from FR to NM (likely most are in mid-grade range--though one has been slabbed and scored above a 9.0). The mind boggles.

 

Although I've summed up most of it, the page #s in the AF #15 Club thread to check out G.A.tor's exact words are: 654; 657-658; and 660. Sorry, no links.

 

As for the AF #15 population, G.A.tor thinks that 10,000 is a conservative estimate. He's going by the 250K print run he's heard of and thinks 5-10% remaining would be reasonable (so, 12K to 25K total). For those not in the know, G.A.tor has the street cred, I hear.

 

The 10,000 estimate is probably just the number of copies he has had go through his hands over the years of wheeling and dealing. (thumbs u

 

::

[hoknes]

Being the most valuable and collected comic of the silver age knowing the exact data to me is fascinating. I do think 10,000 is still likely on the low side but of course no way to know.

 

I did hear of a guy in the 1980's who claimed to have a long box full of either AF 15 or ASM #1 so perhaps 300 copies of the same comic

 

Back when they were fairly affordable its possible to believe a feat could be done over the years. Especially if you started in the 1970's.

 

Even know you get how many chances a week to buy a copy of those 2 key spider-man books.

 

I always wonder if this book is truly more common than most OR is it just that more copies have surfaced on the market simply because the money attracts more sellers

[G.A.tor]

We know there are over 19000 cities in the US. And 10s of thousands more worldwide. Do half the cities in the US have at least one collector? More than one?

 

We will never know how many af15s still exist but educated "guesses" can be made based on a myriad of factors and information at our disposal

 

I personally would start at approx 10k out there. What is important here is that demand still outpaces supply of this issue so copies are constantly surfacing and subsequently being collected

 

 

 

[Hepcat]

I always wonder if this book is truly more common than most OR is it just that more copies have surfaced on the market simply because the money attracts more sellers

 

Well high prices do indeed bring out the supply. That phenomenon is very obvious to anyone trying to amass runs of low dollar comics.

 

 

 

[Marvel Zombie]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

Edited November 16, 2013 by Marvel Zombie

[Hepcat]

It would certainly be interesting to compare the availability of Amazing Fantasy 15 to that of any of the other comics published that same month:

 

Mike's Amazing World of Comics August 1962 Newstand

 

The only other comic that might even be in the same ballpark when it comes to availability would be the Journey into Mystery 83.

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Hepcat

[hoknes]

Hepcat - thats a great point - and that is something i actually do to a point is compare cgc census and price guide data to "compare" books

 

but the reality is that the higher the price tag in the guide the more "common" books appear to be in the cgc as money drives copies out on the market

 

there are lots of books from that same month that only guide for $50.00 while af 15 guides for $175,000.00

[Crimebuster]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

[sundrycollect]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

I know a guy in SoCal who has ten copies each of the first ten issues of Daredevil along with a bunch of other Marvel SIlver Age. I have seen some of the copies...they are minimum 9.0 and up. It's not quite the same...but these types of folks are out there. Old school...don't care about grading, but don't want to get rid of their books.

Edited November 18, 2013 by sundrycollect

[kimik]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

+1

 

What we have to remember is that there are people that have been collecting avidly since the 60s and 70s that had the chance to accumulate nice collections over time at low prices.

Edited November 18, 2013 by kimik

[Artboy99]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

+1

 

What we have to remember is that there are people that have been collecting avidly since the 60s and 70s that had the chance to accumulate nice collections over time at low prices.

 

+1

 

 

[G.A.tor]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

+1

 

What we have to remember is that there are people that have been collecting avidly since the 60s and 70s that had the chance to accumulate nice collections over time at low prices.

 

I met this individual because he used to buy case after case of action figures from me in the 90s-2000s. He knew I was also a seller of vintage comics and in early 2000s first invited me to his house. Amazed is an understatement. My now friend started collecting comics in the early 60s when he was a wee lad. He has always collected and accumulated. Many of his comics were buys in the 1970s and 80s. And it is not limited to just af15. He has 10-dozens of copies of all early silver age books (marvel and d c). I've managed over he years to pry a few from him here and there...

[Marvel Zombie]

Yeah, and may a rumour surface one day about that mythic truckload of longboxes stuffed with crisp NM Actions 1's ...

well it will likely turn out that it was sailed in from Asia (freshly minted ).

 

Lots of this hearsay (on insane hoarding with the effect of a great number # of copies amassed) might likely turn out to be BS if attempted verified

 

A full short box exclusively stuffed with raw AF15 surely seems insane (or somehow a little abnormal a little like these arab Sheiks who has 60-80 kids each

 

 

It might be insane, but G.A.tor said he saw it with his own eyeballs:

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2486186&fpart=654

 

 

 

Which is proof enough for me.

 

 

well, an average joe six pack like me can hardly compete with the sheer amount of street cred gator has got goin for himself here on the boards. So I obvioulsy bow to his testimony on this case of insane hoarding ...

 

still sounds kind a sick to me with a full short box of af15. For christ sake leave a copy or two for us latecommers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rjpb]

I'm not at all surprised that there would be at least a few collectors with dozens of copies of AF 15 and other Marvel keys. For a long time they were quite affordable to an adult collector with a modest amount of investment capital, and reasonably available even pre-internet if one made the effort to contact dealers, go to cons and mail order through the CBG. Even just picking up 1 copy a year from the late sixties through the early nineties would result in a couple dozen. Now how many are even at the lower end of high grade ( 8.0) is another question, but I'm sure these hoards contain a few.

 

Given the historic price performance of the book, it would have seemed a fairly solid investment at the time, and has proven to be more than just that.

 

Wasn't there an ebay seller a decade or so ago who was slowly selling scores of high grade IH 181's that they had hoarded in the late 70s?

 

 

[The-Collector]

Didn't Gerber once assign AF #15 a Gerber 5? Maybe I'm mistaken, but that's 200-1000 copies in existence. Which, of course, we all know is total BS.

 

Does that mean that the Gerber ratings in general are BS?

 

 

I thought gerber ratings were a decent indication of relative scarcity, so if if something is a 7 you have a decent idea that it is rarer than a 6 but the number of existing copies assigned to each scarcity rating is horribly incorrect.

[ThoseBackPages]

i still look at AF15 in a similar light as a '52 Mantle

 

Not rare, just costly.

[otherworldsj33]

That seems like a logical way to look at it. But cities defined as what, 50,000 or more people? When the population is divided in sub groups such as kids, college students, poor people, etc, it may be that not every city has a copy. Especially if a city is defined at less then 50K people.

[G.A.tor]

That seems like a logical way to look at it. But cities defined as what, 50,000 or more people? When the population is divided in sub groups such as kids, college students, poor people, etc, it may be that not every city has a copy. Especially if a city is defined at less then 50K people.

I was just giving some perspective...we know there are likely "thousands" of collectors in NYcity alone...so, that can offset all the little towns that have no collectors