Amazing Fantasy 15 - Numbers of Copies in Existence v. Original Print Run? 0

[RockMapleCasbah]

Hey Guys,

 

I was looking at the CGC census the other day for AMF 15 and there are apparently 2,000 + copies that have been graded. I'm sort of surprised the number is so high. I mean, to think that that many copies of a book survived the years...

 

As a matter of curiosity:

 

Does anyone have an estimate of the number of ungraded copies out there? Is there a rule of thumb on valuable books?

 

Anyone happen to know the original print run?

 

[ThoseBackPages]

only 2K? i thought the number would be higher

Edited November 8, 2013 by ThoseBackPages

[kimik]

http://cgcforum.gpanalysis.com/cgcforum_thread.asp?pagenumber=392&ThreadID=2486186&forumID=16&threadName=Amazing+Fantasy+%2315+Club

[Bronty]

Nice link.

[RockMapleCasbah]

Thosebackpages: Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Thanks for the link kimik!

 

 

[VintageComics]

Thosebackpages: Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Thanks for the link kimik!

 

 

There were probably several 100,000 copies printed. Like if I had to guess, I'd say 300,000 or more.

 

2000 graded copies does not sound like a lot considering most people who collect comics would probably like a copy.

 

That's just my

[MR SigS]

only 2K? i thought the number would be higher

 

Thosebackpages: Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Thanks for the link kimik!

 

 

There were probably several 100,000 copies printed. Like if I had to guess, I'd say 300,000 or more.

 

2000 graded copies does not sound like a lot considering most people who collect comics would probably like a copy.

 

That's just my

 

 

+1

 

[Bronty]

Thosebackpages: Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Thanks for the link kimik!

 

 

There were probably several 100,000 copies printed. Like if I had to guess, I'd say 300,000 or more.

 

2000 graded copies does not sound like a lot considering most people who collect comics would probably like a copy.

 

That's just my

 

check kimik's link... pretty convincing case for paid circulation of about 125k... so print run maybe 250k, but presumably many copies destroyed/ remaindered.

 

I agree re the 2000 copies, I'd be curious as to what you and others think the total copies extant might be?

 

I'd guess 4-5k... and a bit more common than a tmnt 1 sounds right to me as does 50% of the copies extant being graded by now.

[rjpb]

Thosebackpages: Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Thanks for the link kimik!

 

 

There were probably several 100,000 copies printed. Like if I had to guess, I'd say 300,000 or more.

 

2000 graded copies does not sound like a lot considering most people who collect comics would probably like a copy.

 

That's just my

 

check kimik's link... pretty convincing case for paid circulation of about 125k... so print run maybe 250k, but presumably many copies destroyed/ remaindered.

 

I agree re the 2000 copies, I'd be curious as to what you and others think the total copies extant might be?

 

I'd guess 4-5k... and a bit more common than a tmnt 1 sounds right to me as does 50% of the copies extant being graded by now.

 

Even if the 2000 figure is a bit inflated due to resubs where the original slab wasn't removed from the census, I'm guessing it's still well under half the copies extant, especially in VG or less ( which is probably the vast majority extant) It's only been pretty recently that there has been much of a dollar advantage to slabbing low grade copies for resale, and plenty reside in collections that were acquired prior to CGC and the owner has no reason to slab. I would be surprised if the total is any less than 5000

[Cosmic Boy]

Didn't Gerber once assign AF #15 a Gerber 5? Maybe I'm mistaken, but that's 200-1000 copies in existence. Which, of course, we all know is total BS.

 

Does that mean that the Gerber ratings in general are BS?

 

 

[sundrycollect]

Didn't Gerber once assign AF #15 a Gerber 5? Maybe I'm mistaken, but that's 200-1000 copies in existence. Which, of course, we all know is total BS.

 

Does that mean that the Gerber ratings in general are BS?

 

 

Gerber gave a rating of 4 to AF15 (1000-2000 books). This is one data point...for one book. It would be difficult to make a call on his work based on that.

 

In general, as you would expect, any Silver Age book is going to be WAY more common than most books printed before 1954. Silver Age books were only subject to casual neglect, parents tossing them out, and kids losing interest...not the long arm of the law coming down and saying they were evil. So, yes, probably well over a 100K published and the 2000 slabbed number is no surprise. I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

And that is my two ¢!

[rjpb]

Didn't Gerber once assign AF #15 a Gerber 5? Maybe I'm mistaken, but that's 200-1000 copies in existence. Which, of course, we all know is total BS.

 

Does that mean that the Gerber ratings in general are BS?

 

Gerber's numbers were general assumptions at the time, based more on gut feel than actual data, and in some cases reflected perceived scarcity for part of a run ( i.e issues 41-50 of a given title ) rather than individual issues.

 

They are further clouded in the case of some issues, where the demand may have been notably higher than available copies, not due to actual rarity, but a reluctance to sell at what was believed to be fair market value. Captain America #74 is an example of this, a book that was rarely seen until it became clear that collectors were willing to pay $800 and up for even a low grade copy in the early to mid-nineties.

 

Conversely, other books have turned out to be even scarcer than Gerber assumed, but didn't have the interest to indicate just how scarce when the guides were published.

 

[Hepcat]

Does that mean that the Gerber ratings in general are BS?

 

I'd call them honest but not necessarily accurate guesstimates on Gerber's part. I mean what else can anybody do but guesstimate?

 

[Hepcat]

I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

I suspect that there could be quite a few more high grade copies out there somewhere than most members on this board suspect. Quite simply I don't believe that the members of this board as a group are a statistically representative sample of the universe of comic collectors. Those collectors least inclined to consider slabbing their collections are also much less likely to be interested in joining this forum where so much of the discussions concerns various facets of slabbing and the comics that have been slabbed. Therefore being more heavily exposed to the subset of collectors more inclined to slab their comics would tend to cause the members of this board to think that a greater proportion of the universe of existing comics has been slabbed. After all, it's a common trait for people to generalize from their own personal experience.

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Hepcat

[jimjum12]

A publisher's Statement of Ownership (I think it was called....) was included once a year or so in most publications. Almost all of the early SA Marvels that include this have print runs listed that vary between 135,000 and 170,000 ...... and this would hold true for AF 15...... the only difference with AF 15 was that it had a higher than expected sell through as opposed to previous issues. I seem to recall that TTA 31 has one of these Postal Statements, as does TOS 52. Antone with raw copies of either might be kind enough to post a pic of what one looks like. I believe most of them before 1960 or so did NOT include specific print runs. Marvel didn't really start publishing 200-300,000 print runs until '64 or so...... although print runs and ownership statements for ASM and FF were conspicuouslt missing from those titles for the first few years.... maybe they were trying to avoid tipping off the competition to how well they were doing. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Jimmy Linguini]

Why are there not that many copies graded?

 

There was probably around 200,000 printed, mainly because its a number I just made up.

 

Why do you think they never showed Osama Bin Ladens body?

 

Because he actually went back in time and destroyed 180 thousand copies from the original print run of Amazing Fantasy 15 just so people would continue talking about it on the internet for years to come, duh!

[kimik]

I suspect there are a lot of raw ones out there, but mostly low grade.

 

I suspect that there could be quite a few more high grade copies out there somewhere than most members on this board suspect. Quite simply I don't believe that the members of this board as a group are a statistically representative sample of the universe of comic collectors. Those collectors least inclined to consider slabbing their collections are also much less likely to be interested in joining this forum where so much of the discussions concerns various facets of slabbing and the comics that have been slabbed. Therefore being more heavily exposed to the subset of collectors more inclined to slab their comics would tend to cause the members of this board to think that a greater proportion of the universe of existing comics has been slabbed. After all, it's a common trait for people to generalize from their own personal experience.

 

 

Didn't Rick/GAtor post someplace that he has a friend with some insane amount (was it 50 or so) of raw high grade copies that he accumulated over the years and was now starting to trickle out? I would not be surprised if there are more people out there with smaller high grade stashes as well.

[hoknes]

It is believed the print run might have been about 125,000 copies in 1962

 

Over 2,000 copies graded by CGC which is more than any other comic pre-1965 showing that many copies were saved and hoarded over the years

 

It therefore might be the most common of all Marvel silver age early key books

 

How many really exist in the world? I think the number is likely at least 10,000 copies left. That is really a guess. But assuming that 1/5 copies have been graded I think is possible. There is no reason to assume that the majority of all known copies have been graded. At the low end I would say I cant see there possibly being less than 5,000 total copies and really would not be surprised if there were up to 30,000 copies out there as there are a ton of low grade copies that have survived.

 

Love discussing this stuff!!

 

http://cgcforum.gpanalysis.com/cgcforum_thread.asp?pagenumber=392&ThreadID=2486186&forumID=16&threadName=Amazing+Fantasy+%2315+Club

Edited November 18, 2013 by cgcmod12

[ivrimark]

What portion of the general public has so much as the slightest clue as to the significance of Amazing Fantasy 15? How many tens of millions of Americans would see it as just another "funny-book"?

 

Now, imagine that there are realistically ten or twenty or thirty THOUSAND copies out there in these people's flea markets and attics and estate sales.

 

Happy hunting!

[Hepcat]

Didn't Rick/GAtor post someplace that he has a friend with some insane amount (was it 50 or so) of raw high grade copies that he accumulated over the years and was now starting to trickle out? I would not be surprised if there are more people out there with smaller high grade stashes as well.

 

The Marvel Universe that Stan Lee was creating was already so popular in the marketplace by 1965 that far more copies of Marvel comics were being put away carefully by collector enthusiasts than were comics published by Marvel's competitors. Just how many Marvel keys are really out there is the $64,000 question.