THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[KCOComics]

On 12/20/2022 at 10:17 PM, Krismusic said:

I hope others like flippers sell as I’m trying to catch some great deals.. might try to buy a upgrade copy but been trying for a hulk 181 since the prices have come down quite a bit.

I agree. Seems like a good one time to pick up several of those formerly hot titles. X1, Hulk 181, GSX1, X4. (Allot of Xs in those titles).  

 

[Chicago Boy]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:57 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Any guesses what this one ends at?

no idea but that is one gorgeous copy

 

[DT0428]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:12 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Well pulled mine (CGC 6.5) off from CL will be a member for a few more years till things pick up again. Not selling it at these prices simply not worth it. I rather hold on. One thing I have learned over the decades another high will come.

Now if more people thought like you, we wouldn't have these drastic price decreases for AF15

[DC#]

Just a matter of hours after bidding opened to hit 100k......

 

[DC#]

On 12/22/2022 at 7:23 AM, DT0428 said:

Now if more people thought like you, we wouldn't have these drastic price decreases for AF15

This is just the other side of the hill we just climbed.    Some would say (I am saying it) that irrational market forces drove the COST of many books beyond their sustainable valuation.    All the things that have been discussed on the boards before - excess liquidity, gamblers mentality, FOMO, etc - lead to irrational exuberance and frothy markets.   It is a common cycle in all markets and in all of those cases - the market forces always ultimately pull valuations back down to trendlines.

Below is a look at an 11 year period of AF #15 in 4.0 - average across all sales in that year.     The book was enjoying a more than respectable 17% CAGR between 2012 and 2016 and then hit an exceptionally nice growth period in 2017 and 2018.    The 2012-2018 CAGR was 22.5% which a truly great performance.    There was a slight two year downturn before the sonic boom of 2021 where the average hit an astonishing $51.7k.    The trough in 2020 was a May sale of $19K and the 2021 peak was $75k in Oct - that is a 294% increase in just 17 months.    You will just never be able to convince me that there was enough of a permanent change in the make-up or volume of the market participants that would support this at a sustained level.  

The last sale of a 4.0 was in November at $31.2k which would still give a 2012-2022 CAGR of a very healthy 13%.   I am not predicting anything and markets can always over-correct - but a $31k value on that book starts to make a bit more sense based on the past decade.   

And there are as many different reasons to sell as there are owners - they all have agency and are acting in their own best interest given their particular circumstances (life-change, need for capital, disaster recovery, medical, long-term care, starting a business, etc, etc) 

 

[alexgross.com]

off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by alexgross.com

[Math Teacher]

On 12/23/2022 at 8:54 AM, alexgross.com said:

off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

I guess my question would be this: which is more desirable, a CGC 4.0 with white pages and Marvel chipping, or a CGC 4.0 with off-white pages with no Marvel chipping?

Since I would never see the interior pages, I would choose the latter. But that's just me.

[DC#]

On 12/23/2022 at 6:54 AM, alexgross.com said:

off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

 

I would be shocked if that actually sold for $78k.    It says sale pending but that does not mean that the seller didn’t accept an offer for a different amount.     That would be a new record for a 4.0 and double the sale price over the last 5 months.    If someone is willing to pay that much of a premium for white pages I need to list my FF#1 and Hulk #1 today.   
 

Edited December 23, 2022 by DC#

[Pantodude]

A very healthy sale in the current market.  When a WP goes for more, the PQ is often the prime suspect and rightly so.  This book looks nice, too, with not much marvel chipping. Congrats to the buyer!

The last 5 GPA sales of AF15 in 4.0 (including this book on Sept 21) is interesting.  I added PQ info in brackets:

Nov-27    $31200    2707490001    [off white]
Oct-30    $36000    4076204002     [off/white to white]
Sep-21    $41400    0184053001    [this book, white]  7.8% > 9/10 sale; 6.2% > 8/29 sale. 
Sep-10    $38400    2707490001    [off/white]  
Aug-29    $39000    4048269001    [off white]   

So second time's the charm for this book!  Part of it could be that premium-fetching books sometimes need to have the right buyers participating in the sale (like sig series books, whose aficionados also tend to pay up when present at auctions).  This time the right buyers participated?  And a buyer (thinking long-term and/or a WP aficionado) might be happy to nab this specimen as it remained within the recent historical price range for a 4.0 (the high was $75K in Oct2021).  Without that history, it would be more suprising.    

Edited December 23, 2022 by Pantodude

[alexgross.com]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:05 AM, DC# said:

I would be shocked if that actually sold for $78k.    It says sale pending but that does not mean that the seller didn’t accept an offer for a different amount.     That would be a new record for a 4.0 and double the sale price over the last 5 months.    If someone is willing to pay that much of a premium for white pages I need to list my FF#1 and Hulk #1 today.   
 

the sale price shown on CL is the accepted offer price, not a list price. but there have been a large number of big $ sales on the exchange the last 2 days, some for fishy prices, which does indeed make me question the legitimacy of all these 'sales results.' 

the scarcity of af15 with white pages compared to ff1 or hulk1 is a different world. very tough to find, unlike those other two. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by alexgross.com

[DC#]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:39 AM, Pantodude said:

A very healthy sale in the current market.  When a WP goes for more, the PQ is often the prime suspect and rightly so.  This book looks nice, too, with not much marvel chipping. Congrats to the buyer!

The last 5 GPA sales of AF15 in 4.0 (including this book on Sept 21) is interesting.  I added PQ info in brackets:

Nov-27    $31200    2707490001    [off white]
Oct-30    $36000    4076204002     [off/white to white]
Sep-21    $41400    0184053001    [this book, white]  7.8% > 9/10 sale; 6.2% > 8/29 sale. 
Sep-10    $38400    2707490001    [off/white]  
Aug-29    $39000    4048269001    [off white]   

So second time's the charm for this book!  Part of it could be that premium-fetching books sometimes benefit by having the right buyers participating in the sale (like sig series books, whose aficionados also tend to pay up when present at auctions)  This time the right buyers participated?  And the buyer (thinking long-term and/or a WP aficionado) could be happy to nab this specimen as it remained within the recent historical price range for a 4.0 (the high was $75K in Oct2021).  Without that history, I would be a bit incredulous, too.    

Something fishy here.   Same book goes for nearly 2x just three months later against all market trends during that same period.     I am not buying it…..no one is paying a $30-$40k premium for that book.   It even has chipping.    No way.   

[fishbone]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:05 PM, DC# said:

I would be shocked if that actually sold for $78k.    It says sale pending but that does not mean that the seller didn’t accept an offer for a different amount.     That would be a new record for a 4.0 and double the sale price over the last 5 months.    If someone is willing to pay that much of a premium for white pages I need to list my FF#1 and Hulk #1 today.   
 

I'm with you - that doesn't look right, especially with the MC

Don't get me wrong, I wish it to be true so my 5.0 O/W no MC book gets back to 100K +, but I really doubt it 

[Pantodude]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:46 PM, DC# said:

Something fishy here.   Same book goes for nearly 2x just three months later against all market trends during that same period.     I am not buying it…..no one is paying a $30-$40k premium for that book.   It even has chipping.    No way.   

I meant to say "a bit more incredulous," as I see your point.  But I like to see the glass half full for as long as possible. 

[Drummy]

I think that 4.0 wp copy sold for $78k about a year and a half ago, if I remember correctly. 

Maybe it's 'sale pending' due to time payments or something, but that's definitely an older sale.  (I remember being interested since I also own a 4.0 wp copy).

Dan

[Pantodude]

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

On 12/23/2022 at 1:00 PM, Drummy said:

I think that 4.0 wp copy sold for $78k about a year and a half ago, if I remember correctly. 

Maybe it's 'sale pending' due to time payments or something, but that's definitely an older sale.  (I remember being interested since I also own a 4.0 wp copy).

Dan

If you are right, then this is the second time in as many months that [CORRECTED: an auction house] has reported an older sale of a big key to GPA once time-payments were completed (w/o disclosing that the sale was actually months before), confusing the heck out of folks. In that case (I forget the book now), after a youtuber brought the weirdness to light, GPA moved the sale back to the actual sale date (like April) as opposed to the full-payment date (like October).  Anyone feel like making another YT video?  But maybe this time w/o slandering [the auction house]?

Edited December 23, 2022 by Pantodude

[DC#]

On 12/23/2022 at 10:13 AM, Pantodude said:

If you are right, then this is the second time in as many months that ComicLink has reported an older sale of a big key to GPA once time-payments were completed (w/o disclosing that the sale was actually months before), confusing the heck out of folks. In that case (I forget the book now), after a youtuber brought the weirdness to light, GPA moved the sale back to the actual sale date (like April) as opposed to the full-payment date (like October).  Anyone feel like making another YT video?  But maybe this time w/o slandering ComicLink?

That incident was My Comic Shop who does report results to GPA and there is a whole thread on the incident and subsequent work by MCS and GPA to address time payments going forward.   ComicLink does not report to GPA.   

[namisgr]

On 12/23/2022 at 10:21 AM, Math Teacher said:

I guess my question would be this: which is more desirable, a CGC 4.0 with white pages and Marvel chipping, or a CGC 4.0 with off-white pages with no Marvel chipping?

Since I would never see the interior pages, I would choose the latter. But that's just me.

The chipping is taken into account in the final numerical grade.  That means a 4.0 with chipping is, excepting the right edge, a less worn comic than an unchipped 4.0 copy.  Add to that the white interior pages and beautifully preserved cover paper, and you've got an AF15 that I'd much rather have than a comparably graded off-white paged copy.

[Pantodude]

On 12/23/2022 at 1:35 PM, DC# said:

That incident was My Comic Shop who does report results to GPA

Right, I remember now.  GPA fixed it that time.  Does anyone know whether that was a one-off fix or whether MCS's reporting policy has changed (to report sales when made, as opposed to completely paid for)?  Or is someone going to have to keep a vigilant eye again?  

[Math Teacher]

On 12/23/2022 at 12:38 PM, namisgr said:

The chipping is taken into account in the final numerical grade.  That means a 4.0 with chipping is, excepting the right edge, a less worn comic than an unchipped 4.0 copy.  Add to that the white interior pages and beautifully preserved cover paper, and you've got an AF15 that I'd much rather have than a comparably graded off-white paged copy.

As I understand it, CGC does not factor Marvel chipping into the grade. I am more than willing to be corrected.