THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Sqeggs]

58 minutes ago, SC22 said:

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

It was more or less a sensibly priced hobby in that regard (in regards to pricing differences) until recently.

The current volatility is unprecedented. That in my opinion is because logic is not involved in the decision making process any longer.

Maybe just maybe people love Spidey and don't mind paying the price to own a copy of AF15.....emotions and love for a superhero are also a good thing for a hobby not just the money.....both sometimes go hand in hand and that is why some books are Iconic. When you love something you generally don't mind paying the price as long as you have the funds of course.

I honestly don't think it's that because love of the character would only result in this type of price run up if new fans had suddenly flooded into the market.  So far as I can tell, that's not the case.  People who have been in the hobby for more than a few years have had ample opportunity to buy an AF 15 at much lower prices.

To me, these recent price increases seem like a classic indication of ... wait for it ... wait for it ... a bubble. 

I think people have convinced themselves that if they buy an AF 15 now, then down the road they can sell it at a substantial profit to fund their kids' college tuition, buy a new house, or whatever.  I don't think it's emotion or love of the character we're seeing; I think we're seeing a lot of people who are certain that AF 15s are gold plated investments.

[SC22]

13 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I honestly don't think it's that because love of the character would only result in this type of price run up if new fans had suddenly flooded into the market.  So far as I can tell, that's not the case.  People who have been in the hobby for more than a few years have had ample opportunity to buy an AF 15 at much lower prices.

To me, these recent price increases seem like a classic indication of ... wait for it ... wait for it ... a bubble. 

I think people have convinced themselves that if they buy an AF 15 now, then down the road they can sell it at a substantial profit to fund their kids' college tuition, buy a new house, or whatever.  I don't think it's emotion or love of the character we're seeing; I think we're seeing a lot of people who are certain that AF 15s are gold plated investments.

I guess we will have to wait and see. Time will tell. The only thing I have seen that is comparable is the increase in value of the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle over the last 2-3 years (went up 200% to 300% in every grade) and the prices have staid the same over that period of time and are still in very high demand in every single grade....they are not rare either but its iconic like AF15. Some collectors said it was a bubble some said it was a normal increase in value for such a important card in the end it was not a bubble it's the new standard. Wish I had kept mine I had purchased it about a year before all the madness started then sold it about 8 months later....I could have lived with a 300% increase lollll not to shabby!!

Edited May 19, 2017 by SC22

[Jaydogrules]

2 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I honestly don't think it's that because love of the character would only result in this type of price run up if new fans had suddenly flooded into the market.  So far as I can tell, that's not the case.  People who have been in the hobby for more than a few years have had ample opportunity to buy an AF 15 at much lower prices.

To me, these recent price increases seem like a classic indication of ... wait for it ... wait for it ... a bubble. 

I think people have convinced themselves that if they buy an AF 15 now, then down the road they can sell it at a substantial profit to fund their kids' college tuition, buy a new house, or whatever.  I don't think it's emotion or love of the character we're seeing; I think we're seeing a lot of people who are certain that AF 15s are gold plated investments.

My take is more in line with Gator's- panic buying by those looking to get in to a nice looking mid-grade copy before prices escalate any higher.  

We've seen similar with GA books like pre-Robin Tecs (something loufine has pointed out on a few occasions).

-J.

[Sqeggs]

17 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

My take is more in line with Gator's- panic buying by those looking to get in to a nice looking mid-grade copy before prices escalate any higher.  

We've seen similar with GA books like pre-Robin Tecs (something loufine has pointed out on a few occasions).

-J.

I guess the question is whether the panic buying is from collectors thinking, "I need a copy for my collection, so I'd better buy now before prices go any higher"? Or is it from people thinking, "I've got to hop on to the AF 15 gravy train, because their prices always go up"?

I don't see this price run up as sustainable because there are a lot collectors out there with otherwise fairly modest collections who own mid-grade AF 15s that have now apparently become >$30K books.  Is their love for their collections great enough and are their financial circumstances such that they will be willing to hold on to their copies at these prices?

As SC 22 put it:  We'll see!

Edited May 19, 2017 by Sqeggs
Typo

[SC22]

9 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I guess the question is whether the panic buying is from collectors thinking, "I need a copy for my collection, so I'd better buy now before prices go any higher"? Or is it from people thinking, "I've got to hop on to the AF 15 gravy train, because their prices always go up"?

I don't see this price run up as sustainable because there are a lot collectors out there with otherwise fairly modest collections who own mid-grade AF 15s that have now apparently become >$30K books.  Is there love for their collections great enough and are their financial circumstances such that they will be willing to hold on to their copies at these prices?

As SC 22 put it:  We'll see!

No price run up is sustainable forever but there are run ups then stabilization periods and in some cases a lowering of the value but from what I have seen since I have been a collector ( since 1989) is that iconic collectibles usually keep going up in value over time then stop then continue again (some times it takes years before it continues like say the T206 Honus Wagner it hit a wall but now there are some new buyers and the price is going up again....it took maybe 5 years for this to happen.....but it is happening). At one point 400 000$ for a PSA 1 was the max now it's 550 000$ for the same grade (and that is the lowest numerical grade you can get in the card world). I also believed that 400 000$ would not be topped but the market is proving me wrong.

Edited May 19, 2017 by SC22

[VintageComics]

22 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

I think people have convinced themselves that if they buy an AF 15 now, then down the road they can sell it at a substantial profit to fund their kids' college tuition, buy a new house, or whatever.  I don't think it's emotion or love of the character we're seeing; I think we're seeing a lot of people who are certain that AF 15s are gold plated investments.

IMO it's a combination of low interest rates over nearly a decade, the fact that the general public now see AF #15 as a 'great investment' and 'right place, right time' as CC auctions broke out prices into the stratosphere.

What people don't factor in (and again, this is just my opinion) is that people wouldn't be buying multiple copies and storing them if it was simply for love of the character.

They also still wouldn't be doing it if interest rates were at 10%. I think maybe some people 'love' the character more now that an other times. 

 

[VintageComics]

3 minutes ago, SC22 said:

No price run up is sustainable forever

I'm just pointing out that this is the exact opposite of what you have been saying.

[SC22]

12 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I'm just pointing out that this is the exact opposite of what you have been saying.

You never asked me to define what I was saying so here goes. What I said is a continual increase with no slow down periods is not possible in anything collectible. But what I do believe is the long term continued growth pattern (increase, slow down, maybe a dip then a increase larger than the dip if a dip does occur....then repeat and repeat) of price increase on certain collectibles. Big difference.

As a Canadian buyer I can turn a profit if I buy when the American dollar is low then sell when it is high like now at 36%. Most of my books I paid about 10% to 15% on the dollar so right there I could turn a profit. There are different ways to make money if that is what your goal is.

Edited May 19, 2017 by SC22

[Sqeggs]

3 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

IMO it's a combination of low interest rates over nearly a decade, the fact that the general public now see AF #15 as a 'great investment' and 'right place, right time' as CC auctions broke out prices into the stratosphere.

What people don't factor in (and again, this is just my opinion) is that people wouldn't be buying multiple copies and storing them if it was simply for love of the character.

They also still wouldn't be doing it if interest rates were at 10%. I think maybe some people 'love' the character more now that an other times. 

 

But interest rates have been low for nearly 10 years now.  The AF 15 explosion has really happened in just the past couple of years (not that prices weren't already high at that point!).  A 4.0 going for $35.8K just screams bubble to me.  I think there are a fair number of collectors out there for whom that represents a sizable chunk of their annual income.  Will they sit on their copies figuring prices will keep going up or will their thoughts turn to what they can do with that kind of dough -- fix up the house, get a new car, better fund their retirement accounts, and so on?

[VintageComics]

Just now, Sqeggs said:

But interest rates have been low for nearly 10 years now.  The AF 15 explosion has really happened in just the past couple of years (not that prices weren't already high at that point!).  A 4.0 going for $35.8K just screams bubble to me.  I think there are a fair number of collectors out there for whom that represents a sizable chunk of their annual income.  Will they sit on their copies figuring prices will keep going up or will their thoughts turn to what they can do with that kind of dough -- fix up the house, get a new car, better fund their retirement accounts, and so on?

I think the last 10 years have made investors look for a place to park their money, so that has created price increases in many areas but the recent trends of AF #15 pulling ahead of all other issues along with a few recent 'record' prices are the perfect storm.

You have similar patterns in the sports card world. Prices are on fire in that hobby too.

But ultimately, it's like the stock market. There is lots of volatility and price surging with no real fundamentals under the stocks.

[SC22]

15 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I think the last 10 years have made investors look for a place to park their money, so that has created price increases in many areas but the recent trends of AF #15 pulling ahead of all other issues along with a few recent 'record' prices are the perfect storm.

You have similar patterns in the sports card world. Prices are on fire in that hobby too.

But ultimately, it's like the stock market. There is lots of volatility and price surging with no real fundamentals under the stocks.

By the way I am not in this only for the money I love my books I (me and my brother but it would be tiresome to write this all the time) paid a lot of money for my X-Men #1 with white pages (and I knew it would be a slow grower when I purchased it maybe one day that will change but I am not counting on it and if it happens so be it)  I could have sold it to buy another high grade AF15 a year ago I had a gut felling about AF15 then but I simply love owning my X-Men #1 and have zero regrets....I made my choice and that is it. I don't want to own 2 or more copies of AF15 I don't get happiness in that type of collecting never have and never will but for those that do that's cool with me. I told my brother right off the bat since he cares more about the money than the books  (he still loves superheros but not like me) we should only buy AF'15's and Hulk 1's but then he said well that's boring so we went with a path that suits us both.....variety!! I told him we will not turn the same kind of profit but he said let's do it this way anyway it's more fun for both of us and not just for him.

Edited May 19, 2017 by SC22

[Jordysnordy]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

I guess we will have to wait and see. Time will tell. The only thing I have seen that is comparable is the increase in value of the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle over the last 2-3 years (went up 200% to 300% in every grade) and the prices have staid the same over that period of time and are still in very high demand in every single grade....they are not rare either but its iconic like AF15. Some collectors said it was a bubble some said it was a normal increase in value for such a important card in the end it was not a bubble it's the new standard. Wish I had kept mine I had purchased it about a year before all the madness started then sold it about 8 months later....I could have lived with a 300% increase lollll not to shabby!!

Here we go again 

[Jordysnordy]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

By the way I am not in this only for the money I love my books I (me and my brother but it would be tiresome to write this all the time) paid a lot of money for my X-Men #1 with white pages (and I knew it would be a slow grower when I purchased it maybe one day that will change but I am not counting on it and if it happens so be it)  I could have sold it to buy another high grade AF15 a year ago I had a gut felling about AF15 then but I simply love owning my X-Men #1 and have zero regrets....I made my choice and that is it. I don't want to own 2 or more copies of AF15 I don't get happiness in that type of collecting never have and never will but for those that do that's cool with me. I told my brother right off the bat since he cares more about the money than the books  (he still loves superheros but not like me) we should only buy AF'15's and Hulk 1's but then he said well that's boring so we went with a path that suits us both.....variety!! I told him we will not turn the same kind of profit but he said let's do it this way anyway it's more fun for both of us and not just for him.

Yet you do - over and over again

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

IMO it's a combination of low interest rates over nearly a decade, the fact that the general public now see AF #15 as a 'great investment' and 'right place, right time' as CC auctions broke out prices into the stratosphere.

What people don't factor in (and again, this is just my opinion) is that people wouldn't be buying multiple copies and storing them if it was simply for love of the character.

They also still wouldn't be doing it if interest rates were at 10%. I think maybe some people 'love' the character more now that an other times. 

 

You're the only one who thinks this.  

-J.

[SC22]

18 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

Yet you do - over and over again

Here on this forum yes 95% of the time but that is the main fun I get from this forum discussing current sales. But outside of this forum no....never only with my brother that's it.....the rest of the people who I know don't even know we own the books we own I just talk about the heroes with them and the movies. I don't get much pleasure talking about those 2 things online I rather talk about them face to face in person with a fellow superhero junky....it's just more fun I find.

Edited May 19, 2017 by SC22

[namisgr]

3 hours ago, SC22 said:

Spidey is taking leaps and bonds..

 Leaps and bonds.  You're finally and unknowingly talking about types of investments that have built wealth for hundreds of thousands of investors.

Edited May 19, 2017 by namisgr

[drbanner]

24 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

 

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

IMO it's a combination of low interest rates over nearly a decade, the fact that the general public now see AF #15 as a 'great investment' and 'right place, right time' as CC auctions broke out prices into the stratosphere.

What people don't factor in (and again, this is just my opinion) is that people wouldn't be buying multiple copies and storing them if it was simply for love of the character.

They also still wouldn't be doing it if interest rates were at 10%. I think maybe some people 'love' the character more now that an other times. 

 

You're the only one who thinks this.  

-J.

 

Actually, Roy is correct. AF 15 prices were sort of steadily increasing until those crazy CC auctions (you know, the ones Josh hasn't reported yet) where the books sold for like 50% over current FMV. This prompted Gator to withdraw his hoard from the marketplace as no one knows/knew what the "new" FMV of the book is as he has explained. If the new FMV of AF 15 in mid-low grades is $8-10K a point, then indeed those couple of CC auctions "broke out prices into the stratosphere".  

Does anyone other than JayDog disagree that those CC auctions precipitated this new market where AF 15 sells for $8-10K a point in grades under 6.0?

Edited May 19, 2017 by drbanner

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, drbanner said:

Actually, Roy is correct. AF 15 prices were sort of steadily increasing until those crazy CC auctions (you know, the ones Josh hasn't reported yet) where the books sold for like 50% over current FMV. This prompted Gator to withdraw his hoard from the marketplace as no one knows/knew what the "new" FMV of the book is. If the new FMV of AF 15 in mid-low grades is $8-10K a point, then indeed those couple of CC auctions "broke out prices into the stratosphere".  

Does anyone other than JayDog disagree that those CC auctions precipitated this new market where AF 15 sells for $8-10K a point in grades under 6.0?

Way to move the goal posts.   

That's not what Vintagecomics has said.  

And no, that's not what happened. The price surge IN ALL GRADES began more than a year ago with the $450k+ sale more than a year ago. 

This isn't a popularity contest either. Try doing some research and bringing some facts. 

-J.

[VintageComics]

1 minute ago, drbanner said:

25 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

 

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

IMO it's a combination of low interest rates over nearly a decade, the fact that the general public now see AF #15 as a 'great investment' and 'right place, right time' as CC auctions broke out prices into the stratosphere.

What people don't factor in (and again, this is just my opinion) is that people wouldn't be buying multiple copies and storing them if it was simply for love of the character.

They also still wouldn't be doing it if interest rates were at 10%. I think maybe some people 'love' the character more now that an other times. 

 

You're the only one who thinks this.  

-J.

 

Read more  

Actually, Roy is correct. AF 15 prices were sort of steadily increasing until those crazy CC auctions (you know, the ones Josh hasn't reported yet) where the books sold for like 50% over current FMV. This prompted Gator to withdraw his hoard from the marketplace as no one knows/knew what the "new" FMV of the book is. If the new FMV of AF 15 in mid-low grades is $8-10K a point, then indeed those couple of CC auctions "broke out prices into the stratosphere".  

Does anyone other than JayDog disagree that those CC auctions precipitated this new market where AF 15 sells for $8-10K a point in grades under 6.0?

Thank you. 

[drbanner]

Just now, VintageComics said:

Thank you. 

I don't always agree with you Roy, but you're spot on here.