THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[blazingbob]

4 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

You mean the one where he says that a correction is "likely"?  

Yeah, I read it.  First, the plural of anecdote is not evidence, and no one said there are no interested younger collectors.  Second, he says 25-50 year olds are buying up 4 and 5 figure books.  Most 25 year olds don't have a pot to pizz in, so that probably means more 35-50 year olds.  Seriously, people, wake up and do the math.  Demographically, the numbers do not, cannot, will not ever balance once you go out far enough and the Gen Xers no longer dominate the hobby.  Every single book out there owned by a Gen Xer is very likely to change hands at least once (and probably more) in the next 30 years.  Most Gen Xers couldn't even afford to buy back their own collections at current market prices, and you're telling me that the younger generations (with less exposure to comics and less financial resources and job prospects) are going to be able to absorb all this turnover at ever-escalating market values?  It doesn't even begin to be plausible.

Best case scenario I see is that we get a big cyclical correction at some point in the next 2-3 years, and then things stay relatively elevated for the remaining years of Gen X dominance (say, another 10-15 years), before we see a secular downturn in this hobby.  That said, I wouldn't necessarily bank on the best case scenario. 

 

This is you right?

Former HF portfolio manager turned independent trader/private investor. Longtime Arsenal FC supporter and comics/pop culture fan. Tweets = opinions, not advice.

[delekkerste]

Just now, Sweet Lou 14 said:

A lot of crapping all over baseball in this comic book thread.

Baseball has been declared dead many, many times and it keeps chugging along.  It competes with a million other ways for people to get their entertainment, to be sure.  And like all sports it's so easy and convenient to watch at home that ballpark attendance will naturally suffer -- that alone is not the true indicator of the sport's popularity.  Unlike the NFL, it doesn't have a massive concussion / injury problem that has moms refusing to allow their kids to play the sport.  Unlike the NBA, it doesn't have a massive competitive balance problem where players collude to form unbeatable super-teams, leaving most teams and fans with no chance of winning.

Let's stop beating up on baseball and stick to comics.

The numbers are the numbers.  I was shocked to read earlier this year that 60% of the MLB viewing audience on TV is over the age of 55. 

Every sport has its own issues; it's totally disingenuous to point out the NFL's and NBA's flaws and not point out the problems with baseball (games getting longer and attention spans getting shorter, for one...pitch clock next season sounds like a good idea to me).  

 

[peewee22]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

You mean the one where he says that a correction is "likely"?  

Yeah, I read it.  First, the plural of anecdote is not evidence, and no one said there are no interested younger collectors.  Second, he says 25-50 year olds are buying up 4 and 5 figure books.  Most 25 year olds don't have a pot to pizz in, so that probably means more 35-50 year olds.  Seriously, people, wake up and do the math.  Demographically, the numbers do not, cannot, will not ever balance once you go out far enough and the Gen Xers no longer dominate the hobby.  Every single book out there owned by a Gen Xer is very likely to change hands at least once (and probably more) in the next 30 years.  Most Gen Xers couldn't even afford to buy back their own collections at current market prices, and you're telling me that the younger generations (with less exposure to comics and less financial resources and job prospects) are going to be able to absorb all this turnover at ever-escalating market values?  It doesn't even begin to be plausible.

Best case scenario I see is that we get a big cyclical correction at some point in the next 2-3 years, and then things stay relatively elevated for the remaining years of Gen X dominance (say, another 10-15 years), before we see a secular downturn in this hobby.  That said, I wouldn't necessarily bank on the best case scenario. 

 

A cyclical correction? Maybe

Big? I doubt it.

Looks like you have other posts to tend to. Stay tuned.  

[Glassman10]

It also helps to have qualified customers. I don't necessarily see that coming down the road from gen-X  anytime soon. Just look at the unemployment level and debt load of college grads.  AF15 owners can certainly spend their time selling to each other but when I talked to my son, he could have the book or the downpayment. He took the downpayment and that helps him establishing credit which you need in life and will have a harder time explaining at the bank when you get to assets. Comics are a luxury unless as been pointed out, you bought at the right time and could afford to lose everything you put on the table.  I may like VISA/MC but I have bonds too. 

But when I kick off, he wants all the Thors...

Edited October 24, 2017 by Glassman10
clarity..

[Sweet Lou 14]

3 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

The numbers are the numbers.  I was shocked to read earlier this year that 60% of the MLB viewing audience on TV is over the age of 55. 

Every sport has its own issues; it's totally disingenuous to point out the NFL's and NBA's flaws and not point out the problems with baseball (games getting longer and attention spans getting shorter, for one...pitch clock next season sounds like a good idea to me).  

 

You and others were singling out baseball -- I used examples from other sports to indicate that anyone can find reasons to predict doom for a particular product or market, if they choose to ignore the possibility that the product or market will continue to reinvent itself.  Each of the major sports continually does that.  As do the movies ... television ... theater ... you name it.

[blazingbob]

In case anybody missed Gene's "opinion" - http://scoop.previewsworld.com/Home/4/1/73/1017?articleID=52605

Edited October 24, 2017 by blazingbob

[Glassman10]

7 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

The numbers are the numbers.  I was shocked to read earlier this year that 60% of the MLB viewing audience on TV is over the age of 55. 

Every sport has its own issues; it's totally disingenuous to point out the NFL's and NBA's flaws and not point out the problems with baseball (games getting longer and attention spans getting shorter, for one...pitch clock next season sounds like a good idea to me).  

 

Indeed. I love basball but I fall asleep now at 8:00 PM and fast forward the games I want to see in the early morning. I do enjoy going to red sox games with my son. He actually wants me to explain something. A novelty. 

[Glassman10]

9 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

In case anybody missed Gene's advice - http://scoop.previewsworld.com/Home/4/1/73/1017?articleID=52605

"GP: I think that most people who collect what they like and stick to a budget usually end up pretty happy with their collections in the end. I don't think that those who collect for the purpose of speculation or to impress others usually fare as well"

*******

Indeed.

[delekkerste]

2 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

This is you right?

Former HF portfolio manager turned independent trader/private investor. Longtime Arsenal FC supporter and comics/pop culture fan. Tweets = opinions, not advice.

First, yes, that's my barely used Twitter account.   

Second, even though there's nothing there, trying to play the "gotcha" game (as someone warned me would inevitably happen)...c'mon, the comic market's doing just fine despite whatever I have to say.  Let's not make this personal.  Digging up old Scoop! articles?  WTF?  

[delekkerste]

23 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

In case anybody missed Gene's "opinion" - http://scoop.previewsworld.com/Home/4/1/73/1017?articleID=52605

Hey, you missed another irrelevant article from the past:

Purchasing the Cover to New Mutants #1

Scoop: The original comic art market has been seeing strong sales for a number of years. Where do you see the comic art market heading currently? What areas in this market are undervalued in your opinion? Are there any areas that you think are overvalued?
 

GP: Good question! You’re right – the market took a sharp turn higher in 2012-13. And, after consolidating a bit last year, it seems to be taking another leg up this year. It seems that we are enjoying a “Golden Age” of comic art collecting, with people who grew up with comics in the ’60s through the ’90s participating actively in the hobby, bolstered by renewed interest stemming from the explosion of comic book properties in films and other media and by robust conditions for art and collectibles markets since the end of the Great Recession.

Prices ration demand, and demand for the better material has been outstripping supply for some time, so price levels have risen. That said, there’s no cure for high prices like high prices, and we have definitely seen more and better material hitting the market of late given both high valuations and the older generation of collectors starting to get more comfortable with letting go of their treasures. For now, though, the market is absorbing this supply with considerable aplomb. How long it will last, though, I have no idea – could be a year, could be five years, could be fifteen. I do have longer-term concerns that the Millennials as a cohort will not have either the collective interest or the financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at ever-rising prices when the Gen Xers call it a day. But, that’s a concern for tomorrow, not today, as Gen Xers remain the driving force behind the hobby for now.

As for what is under and overvalued now, it’s hard to say. I mean, is the New Mutants#1 cover a good investment? On the one hand, if interest in comic art continues to increase as a whole, I suppose it could be. But, on the other hand, will any Millennial love the New Mutants as much as I did as a kid and be willing to pay big bucks for it at some point in the far-flung future? To be honest, that’s a lot tougher for me to visualize – which is why I prefer to just collect for enjoyment and not worry too much about how the numbers will shake out. I may play an investment professional in real-life, but, when it comes to comic art, I’m really just a big fan at heart.

[delekkerste]

When attacking the message fails, attack the messenger - straight out of the John "Take the low road" Seeberger's playbook!

[Sweet Lou 14]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

Hey, you missed another irrelevant article from the past:

Purchasing the Cover to New Mutants #1

Scoop: The original comic art market has been seeing strong sales for a number of years. Where do you see the comic art market heading currently? What areas in this market are undervalued in your opinion? Are there any areas that you think are overvalued?
 

GP: Good question! You’re right – the market took a sharp turn higher in 2012-13. And, after consolidating a bit last year, it seems to be taking another leg up this year. It seems that we are enjoying a “Golden Age” of comic art collecting, with people who grew up with comics in the ’60s through the ’90s participating actively in the hobby, bolstered by renewed interest stemming from the explosion of comic book properties in films and other media and by robust conditions for art and collectibles markets since the end of the Great Recession.

Prices ration demand, and demand for the better material has been outstripping supply for some time, so price levels have risen. That said, there’s no cure for high prices like high prices, and we have definitely seen more and better material hitting the market of late given both high valuations and the older generation of collectors starting to get more comfortable with letting go of their treasures. For now, though, the market is absorbing this supply with considerable aplomb. How long it will last, though, I have no idea – could be a year, could be five years, could be fifteen. I do have longer-term concerns that the Millennials as a cohort will not have either the collective interest or the financial resources in the aggregate to clear the market at ever-rising prices when the Gen Xers call it a day. But, that’s a concern for tomorrow, not today, as Gen Xers remain the driving force behind the hobby for now.

As for what is under and overvalued now, it’s hard to say. I mean, is the New Mutants#1 cover a good investment? On the one hand, if interest in comic art continues to increase as a whole, I suppose it could be. But, on the other hand, will any Millennial love the New Mutants as much as I did as a kid and be willing to pay big bucks for it at some point in the far-flung future? To be honest, that’s a lot tougher for me to visualize – which is why I prefer to just collect for enjoyment and not worry too much about how the numbers will shake out. I may play an investment professional in real-life, but, when it comes to comic art, I’m really just a big fan at heart.

This is a much more nuanced statement than your last dozen or so posts.  If you were posting something more along the lines of the bolded above, perhaps this conversation wouldn't be getting more and more polarized with every post. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

Duplicate post created by a server glitch.

Edited October 24, 2017 by Sweet Lou 14

[blazingbob]

Came out today?  As with your current posts it is not like you haven't posted the same thing from years past.  

 

[delekkerste]

Just now, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This is a much more nuanced statement than your last dozen or so posts.  If you were posting something more along the lines of the bolded above, perhaps this conversation wouldn't be getting more and more polarized with every post. 

Maybe, but I doubt it. 

[blazingbob]

2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

When attacking the message fails, attack the messenger - straight out of the John "Take the low road" Seeberger's playbook!

Attack the messenger?  More like state that you have said this for years.  This isn't a new stance you've taken.  We have gone to task on this before.   

[delekkerste]

10 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Attack the messenger?  More like state that you have said this for years.  This isn't a new stance you've taken.  We have gone to task on this before.   

The comic market will do what it will do regardless of what I say, Bob.  It's clear from this thread that there are more than enough True Believers to keep filling your coffers for years to come.  Nothing to worry about.  If I thought for a moment that I was actually taking food out of your family's mouths, I'd just be yukking it up on Facebook with Seeberger instead of posting here.  Because I'm nice like that to people I like. 

Edited October 24, 2017 by delekkerste

[blazingbob]

You have been yukking it up on facebook with Seeberger.  And I'm sure when you are filling up the ferrari John will tell you how overpriced gas is in California.

[SECollector]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

They grow up and get rich and...so what?  They decide they need an AF #15?    

Seriously, what planet are you guys living on...Planet Comics (not to be confused with the Golden Age title of the same name), apparently.  In the real world, the people who get rich and buy comics are the ones who were comic book readers/fans before they got rich.  Not movie fans.  Not videogame players.  Not guys who just wore Spider-Man t-shirts.

How many people with no interest in comic collecting saw the X-Men cartoon and became comic collectors and eventually decided they needed to buy an X-Men #1 and then AF #15?  Empirically, comics are the gateway to buying more expensive comics.  Not movies, TV, videogames or merchandising.  They may have an influence, but, unless you're already into comics themselves, you don't get rich and then decide you need to go back and buy an AF #15.  You don't need to be Professor X to realize that; you just need a bit of common sense.  

With all respect to your reasoning, I think you are a tad dogmatic in expressing it. And I am kind of the proof: I grew up in the 80s and 90s with no access to US comics. So yes, my only access to Spider-man was some cartoons, video games and t-shirts. I did read comics, but only Disney ducks. Thats what was available on the small Mediterranean island where I was born and lived during my first 18 years. Fast forward, years later I became an adult who appreciates and gets fascinated by among else popular culture history and collectibles that represent it. And even if I didn't read US comics as a kid, the nostalgia factor is there - from the TV, t-shirts and school notebooks. I may not be rich, but I have the luxury to have some disposable income to buy things I appreciate (I am not really into other expensive items - I don't like watches, I don't get fascinated by cars, but for some weird reason I love collecting paper things). And I even love discovering, even in this age, the art and stories of classic comic books from the 60s. And collect some of them. So maybe, just maybe, there are more like me out there and maybe there will be some more in the future. Who knows.

[delekkerste]

Just now, SECollector said:

With all respect to your reasoning, I think you are a tad dogmatic in expressing it. And I am kind of the proof: I grew up in the 80s and 90s with no access to US comics. So yes, my only access to Spider-man was some cartoons, video games and t-shirts. I did read comics, but only Disney ducks. Thats what was available on the small Mediterranean island where I was born and lived during my first 18 years. Fast forward, years later I became an adult who appreciates and gets fascinated by among else popular culture history and collectibles that represent it. And even if I didn't read US comics as a kid, the nostalgia factor is there - from the TV, t-shirts and school notebooks. I may not be rich, but I have the luxury to have some disposable income to buy things I appreciate (I am not really into other expensive items - I don't like watches, I don't get fascinated by cars, but for some weird reason I love collecting paper things). And I even love discovering, even in this age, the art and stories of classic comic books from the 60s. And collect some of them. So maybe, just maybe, there are more like me out there and maybe there will be some more in the future. Who knows.

Again...you did have exposure to comics.  Maybe not the ones you would eventually come to collect, but, again, show me where these collectors are who skip comics entirely and then go whole hog into it.  Those few that exist are the exceptions that prove the rule.  

And, sure, there may be people in a similar boat to you.  But, how many people with your kind of background are there, vs. how many people there are who read comics as a youth and went on to become significant collectors?  And where are these hidden legions who are going to grow up and buy all these comics from their current owners at ever-compounding prices higher in 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 years when these people cash out.  Is there the interest?  Are there the numbers?  Is there the will?  Is there the financial firepower?  

If people looked at this dispassionately, they'd see that the numbers simply do not add up the farther out you go.  You can bet the ranch that I won't be wrong about the long-term outlook for the hobby (say, 15-30 years).  As for the short-term, sure, maybe the bubble goes on longer than I think it will.  I'm not so dogmatic as to dispel that possibility.  But the long-term demographic argument is settled science as far as I'm concerned.  

OK, that's it for now...don't want to give Bob cause to start looking through my old high school yearbooks next.