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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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Started by HarveySwick,

14,484 posts in this topic

Gotham Kid

Gotham Kid

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 6/4/2021 at 6:45 AM, peewee22 said:
On 6/4/2021 at 4:49 AM, NoMan said:

Perhaps. There’s just so many. 

Not really. 8.0 and above are in much shorter supply than the lower grades. Haven't seen the census on the number of graded copies in awhile so I can't quote the populations.

Capture.thumb.PNG.4db11dfe0b90abda3586d397eb4d4621.PNG

Who actually knows the number of high grade copies sitting in collections and yet to be slabbed? No one, but I think it is safe to say based on previous discussions quite many.

Edited by Gotham Kid
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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

Capture.thumb.PNG.4db11dfe0b90abda3586d397eb4d4621.PNG

Who actually knows the number of high grade copies sitting in collections and yet to be slabbed? No one, but I think it is safe to say based on previous discussions quite many.

Howdy.  Forgive me if I am mischaracterizing your post, but the chart above supports, not rebuts, the view that AF15s are ridiculously uncommon in higher grades to meet supply.  104 total in 7.5 and above (!) is NOTHING for this fan base, or even just the investor base. 

Regarding your expectation of "quite many" high-grade raws out there "based on previous discussions," whose discussions?  Of course there are raws out there.  But enough to affect the valuation suggested by AF15 census data in any grade?  Highly unlikely.   And we know slabs get cracked open for various reasons.  To the extent the census includes slabs no longer in existence, addings raws out there could be a wash.  After all these years, the census data should be realiable enough for valuation purposes.   Time is the best teacher.  

The absolute census pops for SA keys have barely increased the last couple of years.  And this is despite both (1) the undeniably better prospects of slabs vs raws when selling higher-graded books and (2) the strong seller's market of the past few years, especially the last two.  With some exceptions that are too few to affect the FMV of an AF15 (yes, I'm referring to those boardies with killer raws), slab-worthy books have already been slabbed by owners for posterity or insurance purposes, by flippers to flip, by collectors to optimize return on sale for a new purchase or upgrade or just to display, etc. 

Anyway, for many years, the prevailing view has been that the total number of AF15s is NOTHING compared to the demand, but there were always a few naysayers pointing to census data compared to GA books.  Today, that view is even more true with the new wave of collectors focusing on first appearances.  My goodness, there are ONLY 2,195 universal AF15s in ALL grades combined.  To put this in perspective, there are more Ultimate Fallout 4s in blue 9.8 (2,606) than ALL of the blue AF15s combined (2,195), including the rags, and yet UF4 is expensive in all grades, not just 9.8.  And AF15's popularity is on a whole other level compared to UF4.  

But there is also relative scarcity grade-wise, which is particularly important for the valuation of older keys, including SA keys like AF15 in grade 8.0.   Mid to higher grade SA keys have been representing an increasingly smaller portion of the census pops for a given issue as time goes by.  This trend is consistent with the best raws having been slabbed at a higher clip in prior years than lower grade raws, because it made more cents (!) to do so (as discussed in 2nd paragraph above).  In other words, the lower grades make up more of the total slab submissions nowadays than in the past.  I actually tracked this relative scarcity for many books (at least 150 books), both Marvel and DC, Silver Age and Bronze Age keys, and the trend is clear, with no exceptions.  Make no mistake about it...the  trend has been relentless, discernable every couple of months, in many cases from month to month, if you care to look at it.

For example, at the end of 2019:

•    AF15 in blue 6.0 was top 13.4%.  Today...top 13.2%.
•    ASM14 in blue 8.5 was top 11.2%.  Today...top 9.5%
•    Avengers 1 in blue 7.0 was top 11.7%.  Today...top 10.4%.
•    Fantastic Four 1 in blue 4.5 was top 31.4%.  Today...top 29.6%.
•    Flash 123 in blue 7.0 was top 19.5%.  Today...top 17.9%. 
•    Forever People in blue 9.6 was top 11.0%.  Today..top 9.4%.
•    Incredible Hulk 1 in blue 5.5 was top 23.6%.  Today...top 22.0%.
•    Marvel Spotlight 5 in blue 9.4 was top 3.9%.  Today...top 3.6%. 
•    Silver Surfer 4 in blue 9.6 was top 3.6%.  Today...top 3.0%.  
•    The Spectre 1 in blue 9.4 was top 6.7%.  Today...top 5.6%.
•    Sub-Mariner 1 in 9.8 was top 2.1%.  Today...top 1.9%. 
•    Last but not least, X-Men 12 in blue 8.5 was top 17.0%.  Today...only top 12.6%!   

So AF15 in 8.0 could justifiably, realistically (however you want to characterize it) fetch a ton of dough, including GoCollect's estimate of $280K or more.  It should not be surprising in the least.    2c

Edited by Pantodude
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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

Capture.thumb.PNG.4db11dfe0b90abda3586d397eb4d4621.PNG

Who actually knows the number of high grade copies sitting in collections and yet to be slabbed? No one, but I think it is safe to say based on previous discussions quite many.

Depends on what someone means by "quite many". I don't consider that quite many. If 100s were in the total lines, then maybe I'd agree. Despite the number of high grade copies, prices still leave this thread in shock. I can see the "shock" in your face. :grin:

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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)

Meant to include an ASM1 in the data above, for which a 5.5 was top 24.5% in late 2019, compared to top 23.6% today...so relatively scarcer now, too.   And I didn't look into it late 2019, but AF15 in blue 8.0 today is top 2.7%, in case any one is wondering.  

Edited by Pantodude
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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

Meant to include an ASM1 in the data above, for which a 5.5 was top 24.5% in late 2019, compared to top 23.6% today...so relatively scarcer now, too.   And I didn't look into it late 2019, but AF15 in blue 8.0 today is top 2.7%, in case any one is wondering.  

Don't mind GK (Gotham Kid), he is still a non believer. :grin:

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october

october

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, peewee22 said:

Depends on what someone means by "quite many". I don't consider that quite many. If 100s were in the total lines, then maybe I'd agree. Despite the number of high grade copies, prices still leave this thread in shock. I can see the "shock" in your face. :grin:

Those AF 15 census numbers are miniscule for a key that huge. An equivalent sportscard with that importance and pop would cost multiples of what AF 15 brings. 52 Mantle is a rough equivalent and the top 50 copies (PSA 8 to 10) are all worth a million or more each.

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Cushing Fan

Cushing Fan

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, drmanhattanite said:

WHAT A BEAST SALE! Beautiful 0.5, but still..

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-incomplete-marvel-1962-cgc-pr-05-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122123-11034.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

1556245883_ScreenShot2021-06-06at6_22_17PM.thumb.png.7aa3947a45bdc6068cc712c2faadaa1e.png

Hot Damn! Making me love my CGC complete .5 AF15 even more!

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Terry JSA

Terry JSA

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, drmanhattanite said:

WHAT A BEAST SALE! Beautiful 0.5, but still..

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-incomplete-marvel-1962-cgc-pr-05-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122123-11034.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

1556245883_ScreenShot2021-06-06at6_22_17PM.thumb.png.7aa3947a45bdc6068cc712c2faadaa1e.png

There goes my chances of owning one anytime soon. 

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OuterboroGuy

OuterboroGuy

Posted
Posted

That's crazy.  I bought a 2.5 for $11,000 all-in (commission and taxes) less than 18 months ago -- but it has chipping and a scuffed cover.  They have another .5 listed for next Sunday's auction with a pretty cover as well.  I can understand people willing to pay more for an incomplete book with a nice cover, but this seems to push the boundaries of that.

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innocuous

innocuous

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, drmanhattanite said:

WHAT A BEAST SALE! Beautiful 0.5, but still..

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-incomplete-marvel-1962-cgc-pr-05-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122123-11034.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

1556245883_ScreenShot2021-06-06at6_22_17PM.thumb.png.7aa3947a45bdc6068cc712c2faadaa1e.png

Wow! Even if there is a correction, a new baseline is set. For those who own a copy, congrats.

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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, drmanhattanite said:

WHAT A BEAST SALE! Beautiful 0.5, but still..

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-incomplete-marvel-1962-cgc-pr-05-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122123-11034.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

1556245883_ScreenShot2021-06-06at6_22_17PM.thumb.png.7aa3947a45bdc6068cc712c2faadaa1e.png

Geez, I hope alot of the older Boardies see this. Just incredible. 

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Heronext

Heronext

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, drmanhattanite said:

WHAT A BEAST SALE! Beautiful 0.5, but still..

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-incomplete-marvel-1962-cgc-pr-05-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122123-11034.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

1556245883_ScreenShot2021-06-06at6_22_17PM.thumb.png.7aa3947a45bdc6068cc712c2faadaa1e.png

This isn't a typical 0.5 & if you look at GPA anything with such a notation gets a separate entry.

My thoughts were, two or more people have the centerfold, or see the value in potentially marrying this to one.  Anyone care to value a 6.0-6.5 with a married centerfold?

Edited by Heronext
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