Comic Book Investing

[rjrjr]

I would like to see a renewed interest in Gold Key painted covers in the next 20 years. Gold Key put out many titles from the 60s through the early 80s and many of the painted covers are incredible. Titles like Dagar The Invincible, Tragg and the Sky Gods, Occult Files of Doctor Spektor, Twilight Zone, Boris Karloff Tales of Mystery, Brothers of the Spear, Jungle Twins, Space Family Robinson, The Mighty Samson, Total War, etc.

 

This is probably why I don't make good comic investment decisions. I'd rather pick up a high grade copy of one of these titles over one of the more common superhero books that gets infinitely more attention. There is close to zero chance any of these titles will be turned into a movie. Yet I continue to sink my money into these books.

 

Does anyone envision after the current movie trend is over, collectors will cycle back around to some cool older books that didn't have a large following, but have really cool covers from defunct comic companies? Or do you think when the movie trend ends, so will comic collecting as we know it?

[RockMyAmadeus]

I list my picks in the first post of the thread. It's been a giant urinating match ever since. For the record, my top picks are All Star Comics #3 and Forever People #1, both DC's. GSX #1 and Fantastic Four #48 my top two Marvels.

 

Forever People 1 makes sense because of the movie tie-in. Unfortunately, I'm not very familiar with the GA and SA prices, so I don't know if All Star Comics 3 and Fantastic Four 48 are good bets or not. GSX 1 is about $4000 now in CGC 9.6, correct? It has the first appearance of Storm, Colossus, and Nightcrawler.

 

For my money, DC Comics Presents 26 is a comparable book to GSX 1 and not as lofty in price. It came out 5 short years after GSX 1 and I believe current prices are $200 for a CGC 9.6. The book has the first appearance of Raven, Cyborg, and Starfire. Rumor has Cyborg appearing in the upcoming Superman/Batman movie. If a Teen Titans movie is ever released, DC would be silly to go with any line-up that doesn't include the class New Teen Titans line-up.

 

You're speculating, not investing.

 

Anyone who bought DC Comics Presents #26 in 1982 will have seen no ROI for the next nearly 30 years...provided they didn't die, or otherwise have to divest themselves of their copies in the meantime.

 

It was a $15 book when Incredible Hulk #181 was a $16 book. Yes, you read that correctly. It was as valuable as Hulk #181, and 6-7 times more valuable than Spidey #129.

 

It was the hottest book on the market. Everyone wanted it.

 

Anyone who had the misfortune of buying it from 1981 to about roughly 1986 would have lost money on it, unless they had the knowledge and foresight to buy nearly perfect copies (not a "thing" in the 80's), and then wait for the advent of CGC (which no one could have foreseen in 1982, and, indeed, no one did), and then wait another 10+ years for the book to finally see some sort of movement.

 

This scenario is repeated over...and over...and over...and over.

[HighStakesComics]

Omega Men #3 might be a good one. DC Presents 26 is undervalued and I actually was looking at a 9.6 on the comiclink auction tonight. I got sidetracked listing books on ebay and missed out on it. The Marvels might be near a bubble, but man oh man people have been saying that for years. Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. Many of the guys in our generation grew up on the XMen. Two of the first books I ever read were XMen 132 & 133, right in the heart of Byrnes run and the start of the Dark Phoenix Saga. That book (GSX 1) is about as liquid as anything you will find on ebay. Nostalgia indeed. Out of all the books though the FP#1 is my top pick. Darkseid has some upside. DC needs a more cosmic villian to compete with some of Marvels. That fact that his first appearance (JO 134-135 being cameos) was pencilled by Jack Kirby can't hurt either. DC also rejuvenated the Forever People in a new title. I'm not sure what will come of it, but the book is their 1st app as well. If you can find a decent copy between $50-$75, I certainly don't think it will drop in value.

[bronze_rules]

 

 

I know, I know.

 

 

I think it is evident that the waving guy means that I am someone who has.

 

-J.

I'll try it again....

 

AND....?

 

You said:

 

Either way, there have been plenty of posters that have come on here with real life experience that have directly refuted your claims

 

BESIDES you and DEALERS, who....?

 

Several earlier posters on this thread.

 

And those posters ARE....?

 

It's a simple question, Jaydog, why are you making me work to get the answer...?

 

:shrug:

 

But I do think it's a bit disingenuous to say "dealers don't count", when I can assure you that most dealers will tell you that the inventory of comics they have on hand at any given time is certainly money invested on their part. They sometimes will hold a book for a year or years before they sell for a profit. Further, by your definition a "dealer" would be anyone who ever sells any of their comics at a profit. Makes no sense to me.

 

Once again, here is the definition of a DEALER: anyone who makes ALL or MOST of their income from buying and selling comics books.

 

So, no, the definition of dealer does NOT include anyone who ever sells any of their comics at a profit. How you arrived at that conclusion, I don't know.

 

Dealers, whether they look at their inventories as investments or not, are NOT investors. Neither is a stock broker, nor a contractor, nor a baker. They are in the business to SELL a good or a service, on a daily basis. Their business is to know the market they are in. A stock broker may make investments he or she thinks is wise, but they are not investors, because they are actively selling their products TO investors.

 

You really want the test of who is a dealer, and who is an investor? Offer an investor the current market rate for their investments. They'll tell you no, because they don't believe their investment has matured, and think there is future growth. Offer a dealer the current market rate for their inventory, and you know what? They'll sell it, because that's what they are in business to do.

 

I'm sure someone else can explain it better than I can; I'm a bit at a loss for words to know even why this needs to be explained.

 

 

I think what RMA is trying to say is that a dealer is one who is engaged in very short term profits as a business objective; making profits based upon buying at a low enough (discounted) value below the 'true' market value from a seller, and selling at the value that another is willing to pay (closer to the true market value), in order to make a short term profit-- over and over (technical term is arbitrage). Similar to the way a real estate agent is not really interested in property assets as long term investments, but flipping for short term profits (not exactly the same, as real estate agents do not normally put up any risk money, but make commissions on the sale).

 

Most 'investors' generally buy closer to fair market prices and hope they will rise in the medium to long run. They are also often at a disadvantage to a dealer, in terms of being able to buy products/assets at a significant discount to the market fair value. Not all black and white here though. A dealer could certainly invest in certain comics as long term investments, and simultaneously make a living flipping or arbitraging away short term discrepancies in prices between buyers and sellers.

 

Having been involved in the investing and prognosticating world for years; my personal take is no one really knows 20 years out, let alone 1 year out what will happen in any kind of investment. Otherwise, markets would be inefficient. It's easy to say you could have bought AF 15 N years ago, and made X% in hindsight.

The error in human judgement is to extrapolate these things out into the future.

 

Secondly, IMO, the acceleration and proliferation of pressing, restoration, slabbing and other short term profit oriented methods, IMO have cannibalized a once pure hobby into a charade with a lot of seedy and dark alleyways -- I'm happy to have been a participant in the hobby long before all of those events became mainstream (here come the tomatoes).

[HighStakesComics]

 

 

Does anyone envision after the current movie trend is over, collectors will cycle back around to some cool older books that didn't have a large following, but have really cool covers from defunct comic companies? Or do you think when the movie trend ends, so will comic collecting as we know it?

 

If HBO can follow up the first season of True Detective with something as equally compelling you might see a pop in golden age crime/suspense books as a broader audience becomes aware of the genre. The writer series compares his work to a televised version of older pulp/comic crime stories. Certainly not a slam dunk, but one possible scenario IMHO.

[rjrjr]

Omega Men #3 might be a good one. DC Presents 26 is undervalued and I actually was looking at a 9.6 on the comiclink auction tonight. I got sidetracked listing books on ebay and missed out on it. The Marvels might be near a bubble, but man oh man people have been saying that for years. Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. Many of the guys in our generation grew up on the XMen. Two of the first books I ever read were XMen 132 & 133, right in the heart of Byrnes run and the start of the Dark Phoenix Saga. That book (GSX 1) is about as liquid as anything you will find on ebay. Nostalgia indeed. Out of all the books though the FP#1 is my top pick. Darkseid has some upside. DC needs a more cosmic villian to compete with some of Marvels. That fact that his first appearance (JO 134-135 being cameos) was pencilled by Jack Kirby can't hurt either. DC also rejuvenated the Forever People in a new title. I'm not sure what will come of it, but the book is their 1st app as well. If you can find a decent copy between $50-$75, I certainly don't think it will drop in value.

 

I feel Mogul has an opportunity be be big like Darkseid if used correctly. First appearance is DC Comics Presents 27 and usually sells for $20 NM. His appearance on the Justice League cartoon a few years back was well handled and showed the potential this character has. I think he would make a good movie adversary for the JL.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. .

 

Can you please tell me how long I should wait for the downward trend to halt before purchasing? And what grade should I be buying the book in? 9.8s are out; since hitting a high of $12,500 in 2008, they've lost two thirds of their value, and now hover around $4700.

 

9.6s are also out, having lost over half their value since hitting a high of $4500 in 2007. Same with 9.4s, which haven't seen a new high since 2002.

 

I would just like to know when the downward trend has reached the bottom, so I know when to buy.

 

I'll hang up and take my answer on the air.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Omega Men #3 might be a good one. DC Presents 26 is undervalued and I actually was looking at a 9.6 on the comiclink auction tonight. I got sidetracked listing books on ebay and missed out on it. The Marvels might be near a bubble, but man oh man people have been saying that for years. Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. Many of the guys in our generation grew up on the XMen. Two of the first books I ever read were XMen 132 & 133, right in the heart of Byrnes run and the start of the Dark Phoenix Saga. That book (GSX 1) is about as liquid as anything you will find on ebay. Nostalgia indeed. Out of all the books though the FP#1 is my top pick. Darkseid has some upside. DC needs a more cosmic villian to compete with some of Marvels. That fact that his first appearance (JO 134-135 being cameos) was pencilled by Jack Kirby can't hurt either. DC also rejuvenated the Forever People in a new title. I'm not sure what will come of it, but the book is their 1st app as well. If you can find a decent copy between $50-$75, I certainly don't think it will drop in value.

 

I feel Mogul has an opportunity be be big like Darkseid if used correctly. First appearance is DC Comics Presents 27 and usually sells for $20 NM. His appearance on the Justice League cartoon a few years back was well handled and showed the potential this character has. I think he would make a good movie adversary for the JL.

 

How many copies of DC Comics Presents #27 can I buy at that price, to make it a worthwhile investment?

[rjrjr]

Omega Men #3 might be a good one. DC Presents 26 is undervalued and I actually was looking at a 9.6 on the comiclink auction tonight. I got sidetracked listing books on ebay and missed out on it. The Marvels might be near a bubble, but man oh man people have been saying that for years. Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. Many of the guys in our generation grew up on the XMen. Two of the first books I ever read were XMen 132 & 133, right in the heart of Byrnes run and the start of the Dark Phoenix Saga. That book (GSX 1) is about as liquid as anything you will find on ebay. Nostalgia indeed. Out of all the books though the FP#1 is my top pick. Darkseid has some upside. DC needs a more cosmic villian to compete with some of Marvels. That fact that his first appearance (JO 134-135 being cameos) was pencilled by Jack Kirby can't hurt either. DC also rejuvenated the Forever People in a new title. I'm not sure what will come of it, but the book is their 1st app as well. If you can find a decent copy between $50-$75, I certainly don't think it will drop in value.

 

I feel Mogul has an opportunity be be big like Darkseid if used correctly. First appearance is DC Comics Presents 27 and usually sells for $20 NM. His appearance on the Justice League cartoon a few years back was well handled and showed the potential this character has. I think he would make a good movie adversary for the JL.

 

How many copies of DC Comics Presents #27 can I buy at that price, to make it a worthwhile investment?

 

RMA, I felt I helped derail the thread, so I'm just helping put the train back on the tracks. (thumbs u

 

Like many comics, I doubt you could find enough high grade comics to make it worthwhile as a huge investment. This is one book I look on eBay for constantly and high grade (NM) copies don't show up often. I'm just speculating on it's potential since it has the first appearance of what could (should) be a big villain in the DC Universe. Superman doesn't have many cool villains, this is one of the few.

 

Did I mention that it took me over a year of constantly looking to finally find a NM copy of Weird War Tales 93. Now if I can just track down a raw House of Mystery 290 in NM condition. A lot of these non-superhero books are hard to find in grade.

[HighStakesComics]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

[rjrjr]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

You know, I just realized that I feel sorry for comic dealers after reading this. When I buy stocks, my money is working for me. It's a very passive way of investing. When I buy comics, it seems the real work is just beginning. Luckily most dealers love comics, so they can enjoy what they are doing.

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Not many books offer as many first appearances as GSX 1. It's also the 2nd full Wolverine. .

 

Can you please tell me how long I should wait for the downward trend to halt before purchasing? And what grade should I be buying the book in? 9.8s are out; since hitting a high of $12,500 in 2008, they've lost two thirds of their value, and now hover around $4700.

 

9.6s are also out, having lost over half their value since hitting a high of $4500 in 2007. Same with 9.4s, which haven't seen a new high since 2002.

 

I would just like to know when the downward trend has reached the bottom, so I know when to buy.

 

I'll hang up and take my answer on the air.

 

Hey blazin...when you get a chance, could you please respond to this post?

 

[HighStakesComics]

On the GSX 1 Amadeus I'd recommend an affordable copy or two. There's something to be said for a solid mid grade in the 6-7 range. Not too delicate but not a rag either. This is the sweet spot for most books because of the affordability. A dad can take his 10 yo to the theatre the see DOFP and pick up a copy for $600 later that afternoon. Maybe in a few years a new movie will come out and the same book would sell for $750. An earlier poster made a great point. I believe it was "never chase the highest graded because the census will always catch up to you". Great advice. The two books I own which are highest graded, Green Lantern 85 and Doctor Strange 172, will probably result in small losses or minimal gains for me. Even dealers can be on the losing end sometimes.

[bb8]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

 

This is an odd analogy. A dealer is, by definition, a flipper. He buys, perhaps in bulk, perhaps in other shrewd ways, below market value and then flips for the profit. Doesn't matter if he deals in GA, SA, CA, MA, or brand new books. By widget for x amount, sell for 2x (or something like that). Wal-Mart does the same thing. To equate this to an annuity is ridiculous. It is a job, not an investment strategy.

[Jaydogrules]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

 

This is an odd analogy. A dealer is, by definition, a flipper. He buys, perhaps in bulk, perhaps in other shrewd ways, below market value and then flips for the profit. Doesn't matter if he deals in GA, SA, CA, MA, or brand new books. By widget for x amount, sell for 2x (or something like that). Wal-Mart does the same thing. To equate this to an annuity is ridiculous. It is a job, not an investment strategy.

 

Regardless of whether or not a dealer buys a single book or ten thousand in a collection, or holds them for an hour or ten years, either way they are still INVESTING money in inventory. I mean come on already guys.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

On the GSX 1 Amadeus I'd recommend an affordable copy or two.

 

What is "an affordable copy"?

 

There's something to be said for a solid mid grade in the 6-7 range. Not too delicate but not a rag either. This is the sweet spot for most books because of the affordability.

 

 

Well, the book in those grades *has* been trending slightly up in the last couple of years, but only about 40-50% over the last 10. I guess 4-5%/year isn't *too* bad, but how do you know if this isn't a high in the market, considering the book was completely flat from 2002-2010?

 

A dad can take his 10 yo to the theatre the see DOFP and pick up a copy for $600 later that afternoon.

True, but I don't know if $600 is a good buy-in price. $600 is higher than a 6.0 OR 6.5 has EVER sold for, and just about at the top of the curve for a 7.0

 

Maybe in a few years a new movie will come out and the same book would sell for $750.

 

A 25% return over 3 years...? And that's not counting fees, making it closer to a 15% return over 3 years....? Doesn't sound like a good return.

 

And can you guarantee that I'll be able to sell it for $750?

 

And if I sell it, and it costs me 13% or so (the eBay model) to sell it, assuming I can get $750 for it, the fees are almost $100.

 

How is $52 or so over three years supposed to let me retire...? Unless I can repeat that 10,000 times...?

 

:shrug:

 

An earlier poster made a great point. I believe it was "never chase the highest graded because the census will always catch up to you". Great advice. The two books I own which are highest graded, Green Lantern 85 and Doctor Strange 172, will probably result in small losses or minimal gains for me. Even dealers can be on the losing end sometimes.

 

But....why would I want to lose money? Isn't the point of investing to MAKE money?

 

:shrug:

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

 

This is an odd analogy. A dealer is, by definition, a flipper. He buys, perhaps in bulk, perhaps in other shrewd ways, below market value and then flips for the profit. Doesn't matter if he deals in GA, SA, CA, MA, or brand new books. By widget for x amount, sell for 2x (or something like that). Wal-Mart does the same thing. To equate this to an annuity is ridiculous. It is a job, not an investment strategy.

 

That may have been the words I couldn't find earlier.

 

[bb8]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

 

This is an odd analogy. A dealer is, by definition, a flipper. He buys, perhaps in bulk, perhaps in other shrewd ways, below market value and then flips for the profit. Doesn't matter if he deals in GA, SA, CA, MA, or brand new books. By widget for x amount, sell for 2x (or something like that). Wal-Mart does the same thing. To equate this to an annuity is ridiculous. It is a job, not an investment strategy.

 

Regardless of whether or not a dealer buys a single book or ten thousand in a collection, or holds them for an hour or ten years, either way they are still INVESTING money in inventory. I mean come on already guys.

 

-J.

 

So, when Wal Green buys 50 toilet brushes, that is an investment? Because they all aren't going to sell right away. Could take months.

 

IMO, if a dealer sees his inventory as long-term investments, he's doing it wrong.