Comic Book Investing

[HighStakesComics]

The data that so many on here, like yourself, are saying that comics are going to perform poorly. If everyone was bullish on books, that would be scary. These books we are discussing are rare and scarce, or at the very least not real easy to obtain (aside from Kamandi #1). In order for them to go up, using the 17th century Dutch Tulip Bubble as an example, they dont need to be practical. They simply need to be coveted. I'm not saying they will spike 2000% in a month like the tulips did. But there's probably some room left to run. I don't know. Maybe banks, feeling other markets are over regulated, will begin pursuing more high end collectibles. Graded books essentially trade like a commodity as is. I know it may sound odd. This is just one scenario, albeit a longshot. I've heard rumors of a hedge fund or two buying high end comics. These are just rumors and should have no validity. There are more than a few scenarios where our recent good fortune could continue. I could be wrong but it makes for interesting chat room fodder. Please don't take me too seriously, especially on the Kamandis.

[HighStakesComics]

On a side note if someone could explain to me what the heck happened with Hawkman #4, it would be appreciated. The 9.2 went from $800 to $3200 in the bat of an eye. $7000 for a 9.6? Some of the price action on individual books is fascinating.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Either way, there have been plenty of posters that have come on here with real life experience that have directly refuted your claims...

 

I guess "past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results" does not mean anything to you? Of course some people have done very well in the past, and especially in the past 10-15 years as it's been the best of all possible worlds (with the rise of online distribution, third party grading, cheap money, asset bubbles, blockbuster Hollywood films, nostalgia demographics hitting their sweetest spot, etc.) I don't know about you, but I don't do my investing looking in the rear-view mirror - I look at what's coming ahead. You have to look at your starting point to get a handle on potential future returns - extrapolating past performance indefinitely into the future is for fools and charlatans.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

On a side note if someone could explain to me what the heck happened with Hawkman #4, it would be appreciated. The 9.2 went from $800 to $3200 in the bat of an eye. $7000 for a 9.6? Some of the price action on individual books is fascinating.

A classic example of flippers selling to flippers.

Does anybody really think mainstream has a clue about this comic book?

[ComicConnoisseur]

I would like to see a renewed interest in Gold Key painted covers in the next 20 years. Gold Key put out many titles from the 60s through the early 80s and many of the painted covers are incredible. Titles like Dagar The Invincible, Tragg and the Sky Gods, Occult Files of Doctor Spektor, Twilight Zone, Boris Karloff Tales of Mystery, Brothers of the Spear, Jungle Twins, Space Family Robinson, The Mighty Samson, Total War, etc.

 

This is probably why I don't make good comic investment decisions. I'd rather pick up a high grade copy of one of these titles over one of the more common superhero books that gets infinitely more attention. There is close to zero chance any of these titles will be turned into a movie. Yet I continue to sink my money into these books.

 

Does anyone envision after the current movie trend is over, collectors will cycle back around to some cool older books that didn't have a large following, but have really cool covers from defunct comic companies? Or do you think when the movie trend ends, so will comic collecting as we know it?

Nope.

Just buy what you enjoy.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I list my picks in the first post of the thread. It's been a giant urinating match ever since. For the record, my top picks are All Star Comics #3 and Forever People #1, both DC's. GSX #1 and Fantastic Four #48 my top two Marvels.

 

Forever People 1 makes sense because of the movie tie-in. Unfortunately, I'm not very familiar with the GA and SA prices, so I don't know if All Star Comics 3 and Fantastic Four 48 are good bets or not. GSX 1 is about $4000 now in CGC 9.6, correct? It has the first appearance of Storm, Colossus, and Nightcrawler.

 

For my money, DC Comics Presents 26 is a comparable book to GSX 1 and not as lofty in price. It came out 5 short years after GSX 1 and I believe current prices are $200 for a CGC 9.6. The book has the first appearance of Raven, Cyborg, and Starfire. Rumor has Cyborg appearing in the upcoming Superman/Batman movie. If a Teen Titans movie is ever released, DC would be silly to go with any line-up that doesn't include the class New Teen Titans line-up.

 

 

What about a book like Weird War Tales 93 (1st Creature Commandos)? I picked up a NM copy on eBay last month for $15 after looking for a nice copy for over a year on eBay. The funny thing is, no high grade copies showed up seemingly forever and then two copies popped up in the same week from 2 different sellers. I took the cheaper copy because from the scans, they looked to be the same grade. I think the other copy sold for $20.

 

There are probably lots of smaller 1st appearances that go for very little. I also bought a Brave and Bold 200 (1st Outsiders - Geoforce, Halo, Katana) for $10 in NM. You also have books like:

 

Flash 92 - 1st Impulse - $10 - 15 NM

Defenders 94 - 1st Gargoyle - $10 NM

Green Lantern 141 - 1st Omega Men - $20 NM

Green Lantern 201 - 1st Kilowag - $10 - 15 NM

DC Comics Presents 27 - 1st Mongul - $20 NM

It seems like most Marvel character first appearances are already fairly priced, but there are many DC characters that seem to get no love. Maybe the next 20 years will see a shift to these overlooked characters?

Short term yes

Long term no

I caution against non-Batman/Superman DC characters for long term compared to Marvel.

 

[delekkerste]

I've heard rumors of a hedge fund or two buying high end comics. These are just rumors and should have no validity.

 

No hedge fund is buying comics for its own account. Hedge fund managers, maybe, but not hedge funds themselves. And why would banks buy comic books? What capital tier does that fall in? It's beyond absurd.

 

And, don't kid yourself. Nearly everyone in the hobby is bullish on prices. The only ones who aren't tend to post in threads like this. It's self-selection bias.

[ComicConnoisseur]

There are no guarantees with ANY investment. You play the odds.

 

You may get lucky now and then, and you may get unlucky now and then. But overall. It is about knowing what the heck you are doing.

 

I'll tell you this. Over my life, I have noticed some people seeking out certain books when they were not on anyone's radar. Then a few years down the road, out of nowhere, those books hit the sky in value.

 

I noticed this, and I still could not figure out how those "investors" knew what was worth hoarding. How did they know which way the collecting winds were going to blow, before I did? Since I live and breath reading everything I can about this hobby.

 

Some people know what they are doing, and most don't. Most just take a shot, and hit now and then.

 

But some....well, they just see something most of us don't. And they ain't hoarding everything. Just select books or characters. Or stocks. Or precious metals, or whatever.

 

Bottom line is, some know what they are doing, and are making a killing. Most (like me) are flailing, with a hit now and then. But mostly misses.

 

No matter what field of money making one might be into. There are those that are good at it, and then there are the rest of us.

 

Short of hitting the lottery. No one gets rich by working hard every day. And non one gets rich by putting 10% of their earnings into the stock market. They will be "alright" and kind of happy after many years, for sure. But not rich-rich.

You have to be lucky, or extremely insightful. Or just plain "good".

+1

What you stated is the dangling carrot put in front of many hard working Americans, unfortunately not many realize this until it`s too late or some never realize this and keep chasing the dream.

 

I've invested 10% of my income into the stock market since I started working at the age of 22. I'm closing in on $1 million this year in my 401Ks and I'm only 45. With just a 6% return, I should have between $3 and $4 million to retire on at the age of 65 if I stop contributing to my 401Ks at the age of 55. (My plans are to stop contributing around the age of 55 so I can help my two kids out with college.) Considering my upbringing and my modest middle class job, I consider that rich. I didn't invest in anything special or do anything abnormal. Just followed the advice I've been hearing all my life about paying myself first before taking care of expenses.

 

How many people are going to have $3 - $4 million dollars from their comic investments when they retire?

 

Not many, Are you doing this on your own or do you have a financial adviser? Very nice work

 

No financial adviser. For about a year when we were younger, we had a financial advisor from Charles Schwab who came to the house and set us up with Roth IRAs. Once I figured out how much they were taking of our money, I stopped that and have been doing my own investing. (That money was used to start an online account with Ameritrade.) When I was younger, I loved reading about investing and much of the advice I read stuck. It is probably cliché, but the book, Rich Man, Poor Man, shaped much of my thinking about finances and paying myself first. I also like talking investing, etc. with anyone who is interested.

 

First of all, I was mistaken about exactly what percentage I put away. The percentage has varies greatly over the years. I've maxed out my 401K(s) since I was 22. Currently, that means I'm putting away over 17% of my earnings. I earned more 10-15 years ago than I do today and I believe the percentage was closer to 10% (401K contribution limits were lower and my earnings were higher.) I also need to mention my wife also contributes to a 401K, although she is not maxing her 401K contribution and she earns about half what I earn. Admittedly, the higher percentage and her contributions are a big part of the equation.

 

I've been tracking the 401Ks values since I have been 34 and here is what I have:

 

 

Age Year % Change Average % Change

35 2004 34.54 34.54

36 2005 19.34 26.94

37 2006 31.90 28.60

38 2007 9.79 23.89

39 2008 -29.25 13.26

40 2009 55.41 20.29

41 2010 31.73 21.92

42 2011 5.26 19.84

43 2012 25.75 20.50

44 2013 43.80 22.83

 

So, every December 31st, I calculate the total for all the 401Ks that my wife and I own. The total value will include contributions (personal and company match) and gains for the entire year. I then calculate the change in value from the prior year. The average over the past 10 years has been 22.83%. Understand, early on, our contributions made up a large portion of this percentage, but as time has gone on (and the power of compound interest), our contributions make up less and less of the percentage.

 

And in the interest of full disclosure, I'm an IT person. My best paying job was when I was a Unix Sys. Admin. for Sun Microsystems and today I'm a developer for eBay. I've worked at 2 organization that went bankrupt, Sun Microsystems and DevelopOnline, but luckily, I never was unemployed for more than days. For a while, I worked in the airline industry, which paid very poorly, so I augmented my income by teaching Java and Linux at the nearby community college. I've never worked at a job longer than 5 years. So, yes, I feel very much like I am middle class.

 

I think that rjrjr is just one of those people who believes that a $150k+ income household is "middle class". God bless him .

 

-J.

In Southern California it is.Why is it I make around 80K net,and my wife makes about the same as a Para-Legal for her Moms law firm.Yet it still seems we live paycheck to paycheck?

 

160K is NOT middle income. And if you are living paycheck to paycheck, you are doing something wrong. You are in the top 5% of all wage earners in this country.

 

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/taxes/top-1-percent-earn.aspx

 

Maybe buying too many comic books?

Yeah paying for daughters apartment,food...yadayada.Foster parenting her two boys,house payment,bills,my classic car,gas(big one)wife goes through 800 a month in gas,then comics! whew,I got a tad dizzy for a moment.

Another example of cost of living increase.

Who knows what gas will be 15 years from now?

I bet in the year 2000 nobody thought they would be paying 800 a month for gas.

[paperheart]

500 Kamandi#1's in 9.8 is up to you. .

 

Where do I go to buy 500 Kamandi #1s in 9.8?

 

Is there like a store or something, or just a website?

 

i called Morgan Stanley, they've got none.

[ComicConnoisseur]

How many of the nearly 10 million millionaires in the U.S. made their fortunes through comics (or any other collectible or other non-interest bearing asset), as opposed to stocks, real estate and owning businesses? A minuscule proportion.

 

 

 

You tell 'em Gator. These pikers don't have a clue about what they are talking about. Truly clueless I tell you.

 

I've made lots of money on comics over 4 decades. I think that qualifies as a "long term" investment. I'm pleased as punch with the ROI I've gotten from collecting, investing and enjoying comics. Not all ROI is monetary, but the monetary return has been exceptional. I believe this will continue for years to come.

I think you and a few of the other gentleman just happened to be at a good time in the hobby. Just like some retailers who made millions off of Magic the Gathering.I doubt that people who start comic shops or become Magic the Gathering dealers today will have the success you and a few others had. I am not saying you or the other gents don`t know your stuff because you do your successful. I see Lady Luck though had some play in timing in why a few LCS owners are millionaires. I know one LCS dealer who made a few million between 1985 to 1994, and he still lives off that today.

I think it be very hard to make few million starting out now as a LCS owner.

The game, the interest and different factors have changed.

This timing goes for coins, baseball cards and stamps as well. Hobbies that would be very difficult to make millions in starting today.

The Lego dealer is someone nowadays who could be making the millions like the lcs of the early 90s. Also the Nike dealer.

[delekkerste]

I think you and a few of the other gentleman just happened to be at a good time in the hobby. Just like some retailers who made millions off of Magic the Gathering.I doubt that people who start comic shops or become Magic the Gathering dealers today will have the success you and a few other had. I am not saying you or the other gents don`t know your stuff because you do your successful. I see Lady Luck thought had some play in timing in why a few LCS owners are millionaires. I know one LCS dealer who made a few million between 1985 to 1994, and he still lives off that today.

I think it be very hard to make few million starting out now as a LCS owner.

The game, the interest and different factors have changed.

This timing goes for coins, baseball cards and stamps as well. Hobbies that would be very difficult to make millions in starting today.

 

Exactly. (thumbs u

[HighStakesComics]

Legos and Nikes? I was thinking more along the lines of Tupperware and boner pills.

[thunsicker]

@blazincomics. I've read this thread with some amusement. Strong opinions on both sides. But I just want to make sure I understand your position. You seem to be saying that comics are in a bubble phase right now, but still in an inflating phase therefore a good investment. Is that really what you are saying?

[ComicConnoisseur]

Legos and Nikes? I was thinking more along the lines of Tupperware and boner pills.

There has been big money in Legos and Nikes these last few years.

Money like comic books and baseball cards of the early 1990s.

The Lego community is pretty advanced now.

 

Brickpicker

http://thebrickblogger.com/

 

 

Air Jordan collecting seems to be hot as well.

 

 

Of course these hobbies won`t be this hot forever.

 

[HighStakesComics]

@blazincomics. I've read this thread with some amusement. Strong opinions on both sides. But I just want to make sure I understand your position. You seem to be saying that comics are in a bubble phase right now, but still in an inflating phase therefore a good investment. Is that really what you are saying?

 

In terms of comparing comics today to the stock market I would say we are similar to where the Nasdaq was in 1997. Expensive and possible danger on the horizon, but I feel we still have room to run with a strong possibility that there are a few very good years ahead. When money is this cheap (rates close to 0%) people will buy just about anything. I would agree with previous posters that have said if rates start to creep up, most asset classes will decline, just as they have rose in tandem. However, if interest rates do creep up, guess who is the biggest loser? It's the US of A, baby! We can't afford the interest on our $17,000,000,000,000 debt as is. I can only imagine the dire outcome if the interest on our debt were to double, which would only be a measley 5.25% on our 10 years. That leads me to believe our fed is bluffing. They have to in an attempt to keep asset prices at non-inflationary levels. The truth is, interest rates could remain very low for quite some time. People are gobbling up 3 year treasuries at under 1%. That right there tells you all you need to know. Even the 30 year is below 3.5%. Cheap money is here to stay, at least for several more years, and as long as that's the case, some, not all comics will probably do fairly well.

[Jaydogrules]

There are holes in both arguments. A stock broker does not own a basket of stocks, they strictly earn commissions based on transactional volume. A baker or contractor provides the public with a service or a product they make themselves. A comic book dealer will invest his capital in inventory hoping that market conditions justify selling at a higher price. Regardless of whether the items they purchase were mispriced by the seller, the dealer is banking on moving inventory they have poured money into. This by definition, is investing. Dealers also often buy out entire collections in hopes of annuitizing the income. If I can invest $10,000 in books, and sell off $400 worth of books from the collection each month for the next 5 years, I have provided myself with the equivalent of a 5 year annuity at what should amount to a much higher rate of return than my investment guy could offer me. Whether or not you think comics are a good investment is irrelevant. The facts are clear. A comic dealer and a comic investor are one and the same. The dealer simply does more volume. Investments can be both long and short term in nature.

 

Oh boy.

 

Seriously.

 

This is an odd analogy. A dealer is, by definition, a flipper. He buys, perhaps in bulk, perhaps in other shrewd ways, below market value and then flips for the profit. Doesn't matter if he deals in GA, SA, CA, MA, or brand new books. By widget for x amount, sell for 2x (or something like that). Wal-Mart does the same thing. To equate this to an annuity is ridiculous. It is a job, not an investment strategy.

 

Regardless of whether or not a dealer buys a single book or ten thousand in a collection, or holds them for an hour or ten years, either way they are still INVESTING money in inventory. I mean come on already guys.

 

-J.

 

I'm still waiting for the names of the posters you claimed had "real life experience that have directly refuted (my) claims."

 

Unless, upon further investigation, you've discovered you'd rather retract that statement.

 

 

And as for the above, you seem to have confused the concept of INVESTING in a BUSINESS venture, with INVESTING in COMMODITIES themselves.

 

Gotcha. So I suppose when someone buys a house to flip they are not investing any money then either. Because those people and comic book dealers are just like walmart. Makes sense.

 

-J.

[Jaydogrules]

Either way, there have been plenty of posters that have come on here with real life experience that have directly refuted your claims...

 

I guess "past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results" does not mean anything to you? Of course some people have done very well in the past, and especially in the past 10-15 years as it's been the best of all possible worlds (with the rise of online distribution, third party grading, cheap money, asset bubbles, blockbuster Hollywood films, nostalgia demographics hitting their sweetest spot, etc.) I don't know about you, but I don't do my investing looking in the rear-view mirror - I look at what's coming ahead. You have to look at your starting point to get a handle on potential future returns - extrapolating past performance indefinitely into the future is for fools and charlatans.

 

In that case you should probably get out of the stock market altogether since it is widely believed the market is over heated and prime for a correction once the FED finally stops propping it up with its inflationary easy money policies.

 

-J.

[ciorac]

I've made lots of money on comics over 4 decades. I think that qualifies as a "long term" investment. I'm pleased as punch with the ROI I've gotten from collecting, investing and enjoying comics. Not all ROI is monetary, but the monetary return has been exceptional. I believe this will continue for years to come.

 

Not surprising that you feel this way - the comic market has been good to you, so naturally you feel that it can and will be good to others for years to come. But, let's face it - the comic market went from nowhere to having 7-figure sales, online distribution, worldwide shipping, third party grading and a huge tailwind from demographics and Hollywood blockbuster films over the past 4 decades. It was basically the equivalent of buying desert real estate at $100 an acre which turned into Beverly HIlls real estate rentable at $575/sq. foot per year on Rodeo Drive. All that time was really just half a cycle in the grand scheme of things.

 

How much of that is repeatable, though? And how have buy and holders fared in more recent years? I mean, sure, there has been good money made by people who hustle to discover new collections and those playing the CPR game. But have people really done well just buying graded books in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and holding them 'til now (i.e., playing the market as opposed to playing the game)? I mean, overall, not just selectively choosing the early SA Marvel keys? From what I can tell, it's definitely been a mixed bag, and much of the market remains on the wrong side of peak pricing (everyone I've talked to said that Schmell could have timed his exit better had he sold much of his collection a year or two earlier, for example). It really isn't what you buy, it's when you buy it (and when you sell it) that counts.

 

Buying certain comics in 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 might have been a great bargain (certainly not for all comics, though). Not so sure if that's still true for the most part in 2014. It's a mature market now, and many of the factors which led the revaluation of the past 10-15 years are now fully embedded in prices. Not sure what edge someone buying today has over all the other people who are convinced that prices can only go up, up and away.

 

 

You tell 'em Gator. These pikers don't have a clue about what they are talking about. Truly clueless I tell you.

 

This is so cute that I had to copy it and save it for posterity.

 

Glad you enjoyed it, and took it tongue in cheek as it was intended.

 

Gator has made a fortune in comics over the past decade.

 

I "dabble" let's call it. I have traditional investments that comprise my long term strategy for retirement, and comics only make up a small portion of that.

 

But, they are much more fun than 401ks, stocks, and equity plans.

 

I don't spend the time, or money, on comics to have the fabulous results Gator has enjoyed, but I am very comfortable with the returns I continue to get on comics.

 

And as I said, it is something I truly enjoy and the sales help me buy ones that I want to keep, that might normally not be considered the best investments but give me the non monetary ROI that keeps me sane.

[HighStakesComics]

+1

[conditionfreak]

What did Warren Buffet say:

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-quotes-2012-8?op=1

 

"Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don't forget rule No. 1"

 

 

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

 

 

"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks (or COMIC BOOKS), I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."

 

I think the one above is the key. I added into the quote, the "or COMIC BOOKS".