Comic Book Investing

[FormerReader]

Quick rebuttal on my paying "over guide" on the Four Color 596:

 

I haven't bought an OSPG since 2003, as it doesn't really apply to FMV for slabbed books.

 

At the time I paid $424 for my 7.0, there hadn't been a publicly-recorded sale in three years, and that last sale (three years earlier) was for $568.

 

 

I would have paid that price at the time myself.

[ComicConnoisseur]

p.s. agreed on the "common as dirt" theme, but I believe that applies to mostly 4.0-5.0 copies.

 

Uncle Scrooge # 1 is the same way -- each of these books is so common they should be treated like early 1960s Marvels in terms of availability relative to demand rather than the 1950s books they are.

 

That said, while Magnus # 1 and Turok # 1 can be bought raw all day long up to about 6.0, I've found both surprisingly difficult to find at strict 7.0 or above (raw or slabbed) without paying a premium.

 

Doctor Solar 1's a different story, with the HTF part only kicking in at about strict 8.0-8.5.

 

The good news about Magnus,Turok, and Doctor Solar is DreamWorks owns the characters now. So, I wouldn`t give up on the characters just yet. DreamWorks will eventually do something with them. Film? Animated series? Videogames?

DREAMWORKS GOLD KEY CHARACTERS

 

[Deucedriver]

Wow, I can't believe I made it all the way through 139 pages of this topic!

 

A lot of great points and aggressive debate.

 

Death and taxes, the only things that are certain. What is an investment to one person is speculation for another. I'd say it's all speculation, it's only a matter of where on the spectrum of risk it falls. The level of risk is based on past experience and data, expectation of future events and of course it doesn't include Black Swan type events.

 

I don't make my comic book speculation decisions based on total economic collapse, in that case even the highest grade copy of Action #1 will have more value as kindling than entertainment. We can only attempt to make an educated guess about what will happen in the future.

 

"Blue Chip" type keys have shown impressive returns but are they overbought? Movie and television speculation is showing a fairly consistent track record but first mover status is all important.

 

IMHO what the OP and the last few pages of discussion are talking about is speculation and I would title the thread appropriately.

 

Good luck to you all, and of course, Happy Collecting!

 

[lou_fine]

 

Something tells me you were not buying comics in 1980. Where do you get this stuff?

 

If there wasn't widespread, systemic overgrading and non-disclosure of restoration, CGC wouldn't exist. There would have been no need.

 

RMA;

 

Well, all I can say is that certainly is an "one-eye open, one-eye closed" view of the changes in the marketplace.

 

Although your take of the previous marketplace is probably valid only (i.e. not systematic) with the majority of the unscrupulous or fly-by-night dealers at the time, is the current marketplace really any better when it can often best be described as follows:

 

"......widespread, inconsistent designation of PQ, and even more significantly, further exacerbated by the encouragement for all submittors (both good and bad) to actively participate in the systematic and intentional artifical manipulation of their comic books along with the subsequent deceitful non-disclosure of this activity, with CGC in existence."

 

Based upon your conclusion of the previous marketplace, I guess you would have to conclude that the current marketplace dictates a strong need for a true and much more improved independent third party grading and restoration detection service.

[lou_fine]

Quick rebuttal on my paying "over guide" on the Four Color 596:

 

I haven't bought an OSPG since 2003, as it doesn't really apply to FMV for slabbed books.

 

At the time I paid $424 for my 7.0, there hadn't been a publicly-recorded sale in three years, and that last sale (three years earlier) was for $568.

 

Further, a 7.5 had sold just months earlier for $800.

 

Regardless of "guide," I bought the book at a GPA low that was at least 20% under market -- and was ecstatic to get it.

 

That it has continued to fall slightly and held stagnant at a current GPA value of $390-$400 for the last 4 years, despite just 35 copies slabbed in 7.0 or better surprises me.

 

And if anyone has any copies for sale, I will gladly pay an "over guide" $425 shipped for up to three copies of Four Color 596 in CGC 7.0. PM me.

 

Excellent rebuttal, especially the point you had made about paying at least 20% under market at the time. (thumbs u

 

But being the el cheapo guy that I am, I always like to go somewhere between OS and GPA. With my preference leaning much more towards the OS prices, especially when it comes to the non-HG grade books. I guess this is probably why I never end up winning very many books at all.

 

My personal opinion is that the OS guide on these types of books kind of sets the floor in the marketplace. Much more realistic and down to earth relative to what most copies of a particular issue would actually be going for across all of the various condition spectrums.

 

GPA on the other hand, often represents the extreme final top-end price that a particular copy would get after being listed on a high profile auction or dealer web-site. In other words, the last dollar has in all likelihood already been squeezed out (pun fully intended ) of the book, thereby making it very difficult for you to get any more out of it.

 

I also find that successfully buying & selling based upon GPA at these high profile auctions requires you to have a bit of luck. When it comes to buying, you have to hope that the high rollers who might be interested in your particular book has not have the book come up on their radar screen. When it comes to selling, you have to hope that the high rollers who might be interested in your particular book have already spotted it and will be available to bid on it when it comes to the auction closing time.

[HighStakesComics]

Do you think that buying in Comiclink featured auctions and selling in their quarterly represents an opportunity? I would imagine the simple fact that there are 50% fewer books in the quarterlies would be advantageous. This would also lead me to believe the focused auction would attract the bigger buyers as well.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Something tells me you were not buying comics in 1980. Where do you get this stuff?

 

If there wasn't widespread, systemic overgrading and non-disclosure of restoration, CGC wouldn't exist. There would have been no need.

 

RMA;

 

Well, all I can say is that certainly is an "one-eye open, one-eye closed" view of the changes in the marketplace.

 

Although your take of the previous marketplace is probably valid only (i.e. not systematic) with the majority of the unscrupulous or fly-by-night dealers at the time, is the current marketplace really any better when it can often best be described as follows:

 

"......widespread, inconsistent designation of PQ, and even more significantly, further exacerbated by the encouragement for all submittors (both good and bad) to actively participate in the systematic and intentional artifical manipulation of their comic books along with the subsequent deceitful non-disclosure of this activity, with CGC in existence."

 

Based upon your conclusion of the previous marketplace, I guess you would have to conclude that the current marketplace dictates a strong need for a true and much more improved independent third party grading and restoration detection service.

 

Forgive me, but I'm not quite sure what you're referring to. I wasn't commenting on the changes in the marketplace. I was only describing what happened in the past.

 

The existence of problems in the current market does not therefore invalidate or mitigate the problems of the market in the past. It is a fallacy to suggest that pointing out the problems of the past therefore means I see no problems in the present.

 

Nothing could be further from the truth, as I myself have noted many, many times.

 

As far as your contention that my analysis is only valid with "unscrupulous or fly-by-night" dealers, that's not even true TODAY. I have seen plenty of dealers who are both trusted AND well known who have issues with grading AND restoration disclosure.

 

This fact cannot be denied: if there was no need for third party grading, created by systemic overgrading and non-disclosure of restoration, CGC wouldn't exist. That CGC exists at all is more than enough evidence that there was an issue in the market that needed to be addressed.

 

As to your claims of the CURRENT issues in the marketplace, I'm not quite sure how "widespread, inconsistent designations of PQ" and pressing compare in any way with the rampant overgrading and destructive restoration non-disclosure of the past. There ARE problems with the market as it stands now, but I'm pretty sure those aren't the big ones.

 

So, unfortunately, I don't come to the same conclusion you do.

 

PS. "Systemic", not "systematic."

 

 

[lou_fine]

The existence of problems in the current market does not therefore invalidate or mitigate the problems of the market in the past. It is a fallacy to suggest that pointing out the problems of the past therefore means I see no problems in the present.

 

Nothing could be further from the truth, as I myself have noted many, many times.

 

My bad as you are absolutely correct here......it's certainly good to see that you acknowledge there are also problems in today's marketplace. (thumbs u

 

As to your claims of the CURRENT issues in the marketplace, I'm not quite sure how "widespread, inconsistent designations of PQ" and pressing compare in any way with the rampant overgrading and destructive restoration non-disclosure of the past. There ARE problems with the market as it stands now, but I'm pretty sure those aren't the big ones.

 

I don't know exactly how rampant and widespread the overgrading and restoration was back in the day, but certainly not as much as you are trying to make it out to be. For example, I had about 15 GA books slabbed around the year 2000/01, and all but 1 of one them came back with a blue label and with grades ranging from 9.2 through to 9.6. Only 1 of them came back as a PLOD 8.5 (SP) which I found rather strange as it was every bit as nice as the other books which were all graded out at 9.2 or better. Must be the restoration knock that CGC gives to all of the restored books, as if the stigmitizing PLOD was not enough of a punishment already.

 

Any bets that if I go out to purchase 15 books in today's market, that my batting average would not be as good in terms of being able to get 14 totally unmanipulated books. I would definitely agree with you that the invasiveness of the undisclosed restoration activity in the past was generally much more severe, but the total sheer volume and quantity of the undisclosed manipulation that is taking place today is absolutely overwhelming the marketplace.

 

You do remember that restoration used to be considered as a positive that added value to unrestored books, similar to how pressing is now considered to be a positive that maximizes the potential and value of a book. Makes me wonder if some of the previous non-disclosure of restoration in the past had to do with the viewpoint that it was not necessary to disclose something that was a positive, and as the books turned over to subsequent collectors, this information just got lost in the shuffle. Similar to how sellers and auction sites today do not bother to report on books that have undergone certain types of manipulation, and this information also gets lost as the books change hands.

 

I wonder how the collectors of tomorrow would view today's marketplace if improved technology allowed the the cost effective detection of artifical pressing of books and another independent 3rd party grading and restoration detection service turn the pressed books of today into the PLOD's of tomorrow.

 

PS. "Systemic", not "systematic."

 

Just testing you to see if you were awake or not!

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

You do remember that restoration used to be considered as a positive that added value to unrestored books, similar to how pressing is now considered to be a positive that maximizes the potential and value of a book. Makes me wonder if some of the previous non-disclosure of restoration in the past had to do with the viewpoint that it was not necessary to disclose something that was a positive, and as the books turned over to subsequent collectors, this information just got lost in the shuffle. Similar to how sellers and auction sites today do not bother to report on books that have undergone certain types of manipulation, and this information also gets lost as the books change hands.

 

This is a very good point, and one I'm not sure a lot of people know about. Restoration in the 70's and 80's was not looked at with the stigma that it had acquired by the 90's, mainly because the competition was substantially less, and those who wanted unfiddled with books could easily acquire them (apart from GA, and then, you pretty much had to take what you could get a lot of the time.)

 

But that changed sharply by the very late 80's and early 90's, when people were starting to pay $3,000, $4,000, $5,000, $10,000 for copies of Fantasy #15. People wanted copies that were as close to original condition as possible, and for the money they were paying, demanded it.

 

And while tape and tear seals and the like weren't too terribly frowned upon, color touch was on the lower end of "acceptable", replacing pieces and pages ALWAYS had to be disclosed, and trimming was always an absolute forbidden.

 

But to compare these types of restoration with pressing...it doesn't really wash. I can show you where a book was trimmed (mostly.) I can show you where there has been color touch (almost always.) I can show you tape, and tear seals, and the like. And that will always be true of those books that have these things done to them, even if some of it is reversible.

 

But I cannot show you pressing, most of the time, when it's done properly. There are telltale signs...but when it's done properly, it's not possible to tell, probably, let's throw a number out there, 95% of the time. And if the end result is the same, why should it matter if it was achieved by placing it under a stack of heavy books (I have done this, and it worked fine) for a couple of years, or if it was achieved in a press in a couple of minutes...or, it was simply stacked flat in a stack, as Edgar Church's were?

 

And that's coming from a professional presser who absolutely agrees that pressing is restoration, of a sort. It's just not "Purple label" restoration.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I don't know exactly how rampant and widespread the overgrading and restoration was back in the day, but certainly not as much as you are trying to make it out to be.

 

I disagree with you completely on this, as I said before. The fact that grading companies exist in the first place is evidence enough, and basic human nature tells us that what I own is in perfect condition, if I'm trying to sell it, and what you own is junk, if I'm trying to buy it.

 

Exaggerated for effect, but not overly.

 

Did everyone overgrade? No, and I've already given examples of classic UNDERgraders. Did everyone hide restoration? No. But too many did, and the result was CGC.

[comicdonna]

Did anyone ever answer my question, in 20 words or less, if comics were a good investment?

[HighStakesComics]

Did anyone ever answer my question, in 20 words or less, if comics were a good investment?

 

With a focus on higher mid-grade key issues, Id say yes, comic books could outperform inflation.

[shadroch]

If you know what you are doing,then yes.

[thunsicker]

Absolutely not.

[Petey's Wheatcake]

Buy Dr. Strange. That was better advice two years ago but there is still plenty of profit to be made in his early appearances. The Inhumans. Even if there is no movie you won't lose money on FF #45. Silver Age DC keys. Shazam #28. Plenty of great options have been mentioned in this thread.

 

The only thing that's starting to worry me about the market right now is that it's almost too easy to make money. Every book that I mentioned two months ago was an obvious choice that many others had been scooping up for awhile already, and yet, look what's happened in the last few weeks.

 

Who wanted a Shazam! #28 but waited until it was $300 to buy one? I thought it would jump up in price once an official announcement was made, but quintupling in a couple of weeks is kind of obscene.

 

Luckily, this isn't the same situation as the early 90s when you could buy a case of Valiants every month and double your money - that was never going to be sustainable. FF #45 and other key Silver Age books have many reasons to hold their value beyond movie hype, so I'm not changing my tune and suddenly predicting a crash or anything. No one is getting stuck with a stack of Strange Tales #115 that they can't unload for even pennies on the dollar. These huge price increases are too predictable to last though.

 

There has to come a time in the near future when these books steadily rise in value as the characters become more widely known and sought after, rather than quintuple in price as soon as a casting announcement pops up on the internet.

 

Until then, with a little common sense and caution, there is some easy money to be made at the moment.

[HighStakesComics]

Man, that was a helluva call, Petey. Do you have any stock picks?

[Aweandlorder]

The only thing that's starting to worry me about the market right now is that it's almost too easy to make money.

 

THIS!

[Petey's Wheatcake]

Man, that was a helluva call, Petey. Do you have any stock picks?

 

Thanks, but I know plenty of people made those exact same calls. I would definitely trust your stock picks over mine.

 

In that same post I mention something to the effect that Marvel Preview #4 and #7 should be sold before the movie because I was unsure about their long term potential. I'm all for playing it safe and getting out while the profit is good, but in the end, I'm going to be wrong about that one.

[Petey's Wheatcake]

Unless, of course, you used those profits to buy multiples of Shazam! #28. Then that was a great move.

 

I guess that's where grocery money becomes rent money.

[HighStakesComics]

I called JCP earlier on this thread and its up about 20-25%. That, however, was crushed by the 700%+ returns on Shazam #28. Rocky Maivia moves markets!!!! And, of course, so does Petey's Wheatcake!