Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87 3 3

[RockMyAmadeus]

This is not kinder garten where the one who hits hardest, shouts loudest, or has most friends is right.

 

Nor who has the highest word count per post. Less is more, my friends.

 

No, clarity is more. Highest word count, lowest word count, all meaningless.

 

The only thing that matters is whether or not your argument is reasonable.

 

When you discuss things with people who (perhaps purposely) misunderstand and misinterpret what you say, you are required to cover your bases by making sure you leave very little room for misintepretation. This results in overexplaining, from multiple angles, to make sure nothing is missed (which still doesn't always work completely.)

 

This is why legal documents are so wordy: people invariably find a way to "misunderstand" them, and violate the spirit of the argument, and then retort with "well, it didn't SAY that, so I interpreted it to mean THIS." It is unfortunate, but it is necessary in a world filled with people more interested in self than in honesty and integrity.

 

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

Again with the "you are incorrect" pronouncements without actually showing how or what I am "incorrect" about.

 

No, the 8.5 isn't "increasing" in value in any significant amount. At best you have one $1050 sale sandwiched between two $850 sales (or lower). That doesn't help you.

 

No, I am not "cherry picking" the high sale of a 9.4. The sale is there and it is there when the book was obviously peaking, at least in the GPA era. I understand that this sale does not help you either when compared to the more recent sales, but the fact remains, the book is down in top grade in the GPA era.

 

Yes, a 9.0 cerebus 1, 9.0 suddenly going for $2500, after years of the book increasing in value no more than 2.5% on average over the prior 7 year period, is an obvious outlier. As such, it does not help you.

 

Yes, you have continued to ignore the substantive points of all of posts that are inconvenient to the myth that you evidently wish to promulgate that this book is somehow still relevant and on the move, and deserves to be ranked higher than one of (if not the) most significant creations and hottest books of the BA (in ALL grades, top down)--- Hulk 181.

 

-J.

 

False. I supported my statements. See above. And below for that matter.

The 8.5 sales don't hurt me as you claim either.

Yes its called a cherry pick. If you do not show the changes in value between 2004 and 2014 you are removing the data to support a drop in price. So yes its clearly a cherry pick of the data.

Now that's said, I can agree that the book is down from the top grade sale in 2004, but so what.

Stating the 9.0 doesn't help me, is another false statement. The 9.4 also went for 9K? Is that also an "outlier"?

 

Please show what you feel I have ignored most and I will gladly address.

 

Your interpretation of the data is your opinion. I do not share it. Yet the irony is that, even if I did accept your opinion (which I don't), the fact that no cerebus 1 9.2 (the grade OPG supposedly relies on) has ever sold publicly for more than even Hulk 181, 9.2's 12 month average (which is $300+ above OPG) is an inconvenient truth that remains. Which is why I repeatedly state that those sales do not help you. But like I said yesterday, like minds are free to disagree. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

I'm more than happy to agree that no yellow has ever sold higher than the Hulk 181 AVG. $2,310 vs $2,136

I'm also happy to point there are zero 9.2 blue labels 2 9.4's and 4 9.0's.

Both recent sales (9.4 and 9.2) were blue labels. So it's clearly something to consider when determining value.

 

(Edit to show prices)

 

...and I disagree that ONE outlier sale of a 9.0, and ONE other 9.4 sale that's 15% off from a peak price 10 years ago (from the same time frame the last 9.2 sold) are helpful or tell us anything relevant about what a 9.2 "might" go for now. Those two sales (one of which actually represents the book's absolute top grade, for which multiples are routinely paid for in most desirable books) are not more persuasive than the 40+ publicly available sales for hulk 181 in its respective 9.2 grade over a 20-some odd month period.

 

-J.

And an increase from the 2009 and 2010 sales

So 2 recent blue prices (in 9.0-9.4) aren't helpful to figure out the values of a very rare book where only 6 exist in blue and 11 in yellow?

 

How is one to figure things out?

 

This argument is again like trying to have your cake and eat it too. I find it somewhat disingenuous to tout the allegedly "high sales" for cerebus 1, and support its positioning on the OPG BA list as some kind of evidence that the book is racing up the sales charts, but without acknowledging the fact that the primary (if not only) reason the book sells for what it does in those top grades is its relative scarcity. And then turn around and use the book's scarcity on the census as an "out" to excuse some of its declining/flat sales figures over the last ten years.

 

If you're going to follow this line of logic, you must also apply it to the hulk 181, and tip your hat to it for STILL being able to out - sell the cerebus 1, 9.2 even with its 450+ examples on the census. For if it existed in even half its numbers, one can only assume or imagine what multiple of $2000 more it would sell for. Just as we must also assume that there would be an extreme discount on cerebus 1 from its current sparse sales figures if it existed in even half the numbers as the hulk 181.

 

But again, much like your hypothetical value of what a cerebus 1 "might" sell for in a 9.2 right now, this is all just speculation. What we DO know is that OPG has it valued at $2100 in a 9.2 (most likely correct, and reflective of its last sale) and a 181 9.2 valued at $2000 (obviously IN-correct, as indicated by its 12 month/30 day/most recent publicly recorded sales figures), which all taken together belie the notion that cerebus 1 should be higher on the OPG BA list.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

And PS ....I only post in this thread when someone mis-states, perverts my position, or deliberately cites me out of context. I present my arguments with data and context, unlike most have been posting nothing more on here than "you're wrong", or "that is incorrect", and then disappearing back into cyberspace.

 

-J.

 

 

There has been more than ample evidence posted of why you're wrong and why a statement is incorrect. Reposting that evidence over and over again serves no purpose. It's all in the thread; anyone interested can see it all laid out for themselves, right here.

 

You "mis-state" while complaining that other people misstate, by claiming that "others don't present their arguments with data and context", which has been done exhaustively by everyone disputing you.

 

I said it before, and I'll say it again: Jaydog, you are a master propagandist. The heart of propaganda is to simply lie as big as you think you can get away with, and then keep repeating it. This is what you have done, this entire thread.

 

Do you have any evidence of someone "mis-stating", "perverting your position" or "deliberately citing you out of context"...?

 

If so, lay it out, for all to see. Note: not quoting everything is not "taking something out of context."

[RockMyAmadeus]

Some of you should be grateful that this thread isn't in CG.

 

You would have been treated far, far unkindly than you have been here, where people would have actually abused you for unreasonable arguments, rather than just attempting to reason with you.

[HighStakesComics]

To a HG collector, the gap between 8.5 and 9.0 is much larger than 0.5

ESPECIALLY in a book with so few 9.0 and up copies.

Anyone trying to determine numbers from GPA, SHOULD know and understand this.

 

Also, for a book with so few 9.0 and up copies in blue label, it's appeal in that blue label increases for HG collector.

 

IT becomes the white whale. The pretty girl who is unavailable.

It's enchantment will draw a bigger game hunter.

 

Overstreet certainly understands this and it's what he is basing some of his information on.

 

Well said

[Gatsby77]

Um..._of course_ the value of the 9.2 Cerebus today is speculation, as the only concrete sales figure you will accept in that grade is from 2005.

 

So we speculate based on the 2013 9.0 sale, the 2014 9.4 sale, and the knowledge & experience of multiple comic dealers, both those who've testified in this thread & those polled, en masse, by Overstreets.

[Gatsby77]

JayDog, what's the value of a TMNT # 1 in 5.0? Is it worth more than a Hulk 181 in say, 9.0 (90 day GPA average: $2,048)?

 

GPA (last sales, all from 2013-2014) looks like this:

 

4.5: $142

5.0: $2,700

5.5: $1,080

6.0: $2,850

[Rip]

Again with the "you are incorrect" pronouncements without actually showing how or what I am "incorrect" about.

 

No, the 8.5 isn't "increasing" in value in any significant amount. At best you have one $1050 sale sandwiched between two $850 sales (or lower). That doesn't help you.

 

No, I am not "cherry picking" the high sale of a 9.4. The sale is there and it is there when the book was obviously peaking, at least in the GPA era. I understand that this sale does not help you either when compared to the more recent sales, but the fact remains, the book is down in top grade in the GPA era.

 

Yes, a 9.0 cerebus 1, 9.0 suddenly going for $2500, after years of the book increasing in value no more than 2.5% on average over the prior 7 year period, is an obvious outlier. As such, it does not help you.

 

Yes, you have continued to ignore the substantive points of all of posts that are inconvenient to the myth that you evidently wish to promulgate that this book is somehow still relevant and on the move, and deserves to be ranked higher than one of (if not the) most significant creations and hottest books of the BA (in ALL grades, top down)--- Hulk 181.

 

-J.

 

False. I supported my statements. See above. And below for that matter.

The 8.5 sales don't hurt me as you claim either.

Yes its called a cherry pick. If you do not show the changes in value between 2004 and 2014 you are removing the data to support a drop in price. So yes its clearly a cherry pick of the data.

Now that's said, I can agree that the book is down from the top grade sale in 2004, but so what.

Stating the 9.0 doesn't help me, is another false statement. The 9.4 also went for 9K? Is that also an "outlier"?

 

Please show what you feel I have ignored most and I will gladly address.

 

Your interpretation of the data is your opinion. I do not share it. Yet the irony is that, even if I did accept your opinion (which I don't), the fact that no cerebus 1 9.2 (the grade OPG supposedly relies on) has ever sold publicly for more than even Hulk 181, 9.2's 12 month average (which is $300+ above OPG) is an inconvenient truth that remains. Which is why I repeatedly state that those sales do not help you. But like I said yesterday, like minds are free to disagree. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

I'm more than happy to agree that no yellow has ever sold higher than the Hulk 181 AVG. $2,310 vs $2,136

I'm also happy to point there are zero 9.2 blue labels 2 9.4's and 4 9.0's.

Both recent sales (9.4 and 9.2) were blue labels. So it's clearly something to consider when determining value.

 

(Edit to show prices)

 

...and I disagree that ONE outlier sale of a 9.0, and ONE other 9.4 sale that's 15% off from a peak price 10 years ago (from the same time frame the last 9.2 sold) are helpful or tell us anything relevant about what a 9.2 "might" go for now. Those two sales (one of which actually represents the book's absolute top grade, for which multiples are routinely paid for in most desirable books) are not more persuasive than the 40+ publicly available sales for hulk 181 in its respective 9.2 grade over a 20-some odd month period.

 

-J.

And an increase from the 2009 and 2010 sales

So 2 recent blue prices (in 9.0-9.4) aren't helpful to figure out the values of a very rare book where only 6 exist in blue and 11 in yellow?

 

How is one to figure things out?

 

This argument is again like trying to have your cake and eat it too. I find it somewhat disingenuous to tout the allegedly "high sales" for cerebus 1, and support its positioning on the OPG BA list as some kind of evidence that the book is racing up the sales charts, but without acknowledging the fact that the primary (if not only) reason the book sells for what it does in those top grades is its relative scarcity. And then turn around and use the book's scarcity on the census as an "out" to excuse some of its declining/flat sales figures over the last ten years.

 

If you're going to follow this line of logic, you must also apply it to the hulk 181, and tip your hat to it for STILL being able to out - sell the cerebus 1, 9.2 even with its 450+ examples on the census. For if it existed in even half its numbers, one can only assume or imagine what multiple of $2000 more it would sell for. Just as we must also assume that there would be an extreme discount on cerebus 1 from its current sparse sales figures if it existed in even half the numbers as the hulk 181.

 

But again, much like your hypothetical value of what a cerebus 1 "might" sell for in a 9.2 right now, this is all just speculation. What we DO know is that OPG has it valued at $2100 in a 9.2 (most likely correct, and reflective of its last sale) and a 181 9.2 valued at $2000 (obviously IN-correct, as indicated by its 12 month/30 day/most recent publicly recorded sales figures), which all taken together belies the notion that cerebus 1 should be higher on the OPG BA list.

 

-J.

Racing up the sales charts isn't my words. I'm glad to state that scarcity matters, nothing disingenuous here. In fact its a big part of the reason the book gets the price it does.

 

Simple supply and demand. If there were fewer Hulk 181's then the Hulk 181 price would rise.

 

Certainly with so few examples sold, then a certain amount of speculation is made. But if we look at recent sales as any sort of guide, I would take a Cerebus 9.2 Blue over a Hulk 181.

[Jaydogrules]

Um..._of course_ the value of the 9.2 Cerebus today is speculation, as the only concrete sales figure you will accept in that grade is from 2005.

 

So we speculate based on the 2013 9.0 sale, the 2014 9.4 sale, and the knowledge & experience of multiple comic dealers, both those who've testified in this thread & those polled, en masse, by Overstreets.

 

Overstreet "speculated" the value at $2100 (consistent with the 2005 sale on a book that has been largely flat, or down in pretty much all grades over that period of time) so I don't see your point. What YOU and your brethren are doing is trying to "speculate" it even higher because the hulk 181 was so clearly UNDERVALUED by OPG in its guide, which queered his list.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The 9.4 sale is actually 15% below the peak price paid for the grade ten years ago, and if you look at all the sales in between, the needle hasn't moved in that grade since GPA started keeping records.

 

This is not true.

 

There has only been a single recorded sale, ever, of a 9.4 Universal Cerebus #1.

 

By definition, it has neither gone up NOR down.

 

The sale you keep citing is a SS 9.4, and the SS market is different from the Universal market. They cannot be reasonably compared.

[Jaydogrules]

JayDog, what's the value of a TMNT # 1 in 5.0? Is it worth more than a Hulk 181 in say, 9.0 (90 day GPA average: $2,048)?

 

GPA (last sales, all from 2013-2014) looks like this:

 

4.5: $142

5.0: $2,700

5.5: $1,080

6.0: $2,850

 

I don't know about that. TMNT has been very hit and miss this year. That 5.0 is an extreme all time high so I wouldn't base a buying decision on that one sale. Realistically I probably wouldn't personally pay more than $1800 for a 5.0 TMNT 1. Since I would feel more comfortable paying $2k for a hulk 181 based on its oeuvre of sales in 9.0 grade, I would have to say the 181 has a higher "real" FMV.

 

-J.

[porcupine48]

Wow.still.going.Amazing.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I feel this has been the problem more or less with a lot of the responses in this thread... seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points of a post..

 

On the one hand, you are the only one "posting your arguments with data and context", and on the other hand, when other people post their arguments with data and context, they are "seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points."

 

It is genuinely (no sarcasm) breathtaking watching you post, Jaydog. You are a master of propaganda. I have no doubt, if you were of a mind, you could be an extremely successful politician.

[Jaydogrules]

The 9.4 sale is actually 15% below the peak price paid for the grade ten years ago, and if you look at all the sales in between, the needle hasn't moved in that grade since GPA started keeping records.

 

This is not true.

 

There has only been a single recorded sale, ever, of a 9.4 Universal Cerebus #1.

 

By definition, it has neither gone up NOR down.

 

The sale you keep citing is a SS 9.4, and the SS market is different from the Universal market. They cannot be reasonably compared.

 

RIP and I have been inter changing blue/yellow sales due simply to the lack of significant sales data for the cerebus 1

But like I said before, if you want to compare like to like, the hulk 181 SS that sold for $3700 utterly destroys anything a 9.2 cerebus 1 SS has ever sold for. Though I am sure that won't stop you from fantasizing what one "might" sell for. I would wager around $2500-$2800 on a good day. Feel free to disagree if you want. Doesn't make me wrong or you right.

 

-J.

 

[Jaydogrules]

I feel this has been the problem more or less with a lot of the responses in this thread... seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points of a post..

 

On the one hand, you are the only one "posting your arguments with data and context", and on the other hand, when other people post their arguments with data and context, they are "seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points."

 

It is genuinely (no sarcasm) breathtaking watching you post, Jaydog. You are a master of propaganda. I have no doubt, if you were of a mind, you could be an extremely successful politician.

 

.....or salesman.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

like minds are free to disagree. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

You have repeated this...it doesn't mean what you think it means. If you disagree, by definition, you are NOT "like minded."

[RockMyAmadeus]

I feel this has been the problem more or less with a lot of the responses in this thread... seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points of a post..

 

On the one hand, you are the only one "posting your arguments with data and context", and on the other hand, when other people post their arguments with data and context, they are "seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points."

 

It is genuinely (no sarcasm) breathtaking watching you post, Jaydog. You are a master of propaganda. I have no doubt, if you were of a mind, you could be an extremely successful politician.

 

.....or salesman.

 

-J.

 

No, that's not true. Salesmen cannot deliberately lie and expect to be successful in the long term. Politicians can. In fact, they must.

[Jaydogrules]

like minds are free to disagree. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

You have repeated this...it doesn't mean what you think it means. If you disagree, by definition, you are NOT "like minded."

 

What *I* mean by it is two intelligent, and intelligently debating comic book enthusiasts.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

...and I disagree that ONE outlier sale of a 9.0, and ONE other 9.4 sale that's 15% off from a peak price 10 years ago

 

This is incorrect. There has only been one sale of a 9.4 Universal Cerebus #1 ever, so it cannot, by definition, be "off" from anything.

 

You are attempting to compare SS copies with Universal copies. They are different markets, and behave by different rules.

[Jaydogrules]

I feel this has been the problem more or less with a lot of the responses in this thread... seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points of a post..

 

On the one hand, you are the only one "posting your arguments with data and context", and on the other hand, when other people post their arguments with data and context, they are "seizing upon the minutiae of a post and glossing over the main points."

 

It is genuinely (no sarcasm) breathtaking watching you post, Jaydog. You are a master of propaganda. I have no doubt, if you were of a mind, you could be an extremely successful politician.

 

.....or salesman.

 

-J.

 

No, that's not true. Salesmen cannot deliberately lie and expect to be successful in the long term. Politicians can. In fact, they must.

 

Except I haven't "lied" about anything. If anything, that kind of inflammatory mis-characterization is better suited in politics.

 

-J.