When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[Jeffro.]

Where are all the true believers:

 

NM 98 9.8 Board Sale

 

$750...

 

It's well known that books often sell for more off the boards than on the boards.

 

I can't count how many times it's happened, but enough times to know that it's true. Unless you need statistics. Then I can't help you.

 

You forgot to mention PQ.

 

Just sold my X-men #109 CGC 9.8 for over $300 more at auction than my asking price on the CGC boards.

 

I enjoy listing my new CGC books here first to get some quick sales, but whatever doesn't sell here there is always other venues to sell ones books at a quick turnaround pace.

 

I rarely offer books for sale here anymore. When I do, I never bother to bump the thread or discount because they almost always sell for more somewhere else. (even with fees)

 

Sadly true.

[VintageComics]

 

A shame. I always looked forward to your threads, Mike.

 

Me, too. And just a good person to do business with.

 

And cute too (in my best Super Grover voice).

[VintageComics]

 

A shame. I always looked forward to your threads, Mike.

 

Me, too. And just a good person to do business with.

 

A lot of good sellers on these boards got tired of the drama here and the low ball offers.

 

I still believe this place is a great place to sell to some really good people/boardies, but for many long-time boardies such as myself I have gradually seen the decline in serious clienteles here on the boards.

 

It's the fear mongering. This place is such a concentration of online buyers and many buyers here are so GPA obsessed that they won't pay GPA for a book.

 

So you throw the book out in the wild and it sells for real numbers.

 

What people who don't want to pay for GPA forget is that they want their books to be worth more in the future but that only happens if they choose to pay a little more now.

 

Storms nailed it with a term but I can't remember what he said.

[valiantman]

Posting on page 98 of this topic.

 

Because winning.

only page 20, got a long way to go

Don't use Canadian board settings.

[Wally's Comics]

 

A shame. I always looked forward to your threads, Mike.

 

Me, too. And just a good person to do business with.

 

A lot of good sellers on these boards got tired of the drama here and the low ball offers.

 

I still believe this place is a great place to sell to some really good people/boardies, but for many long-time boardies such as myself I have gradually seen the decline in serious clienteles here on the boards.

 

I've sold a lot here and bought a lot here...

 

The best thing about the boards is that it helps with quick cash and no fees!

 

Yeah I know you leave some money on the table here, but that's the price of business for the quick and dirty with no fees and no juice!

 

 

 

[MetalPSI]

Posting on page 98 of this topic.

 

Because winning.

only page 20, got a long way to go

Don't use Canadian board settings.

 

We like to scroll

[the blob]

Selling here is a good way to make money quickly rather than waiting for an auction to end or a buyer to find your fixed price item. Yes, you may leave money on the table (even factoring in no fees), but you are perhaps more likely to have one person buying 6 items which is nice in terms of time spent packing. I'd gladly give up even more money to avoid 6 different packages. Plus, there is probably more benefit of the doubt here in terms of grades if you have been here a while. Not necessarily for 9.6 - 9.8 books, but your 8.5 - 9.2 book if you have scans, etc. On ebay you are more likely to assume they are really Fines.

 

Of course, here you get sucked into wheeling and dealing and bulk deals, like the time I sold someone 5 or 6 X-Factor 6ses. I should have kept a few more of them.

[Vger7]

I can't argue with that!

[ComicConnoisseur]

So far since this thread about New Mutants 98 was created a few years ago we will find New Mutants #98 and Deadpool have gotten hotter!

 

[BarryAllen]

So far since this thread about New Mutants 98 was created a few years ago we will find New Mutants #98 and Deadpool have gotten hotter!

 

 

[Junkdrawer]

Here is a factiod. The last 5 CGC 9.8s sold on ebay all went for over $800 convincingly. The movie is in the past, but the book is still undeniably strong in the market place. Most movie hyped books tend to drop like rocks after the movie. No doubt about the demand, its there.

[BarryAllen]

Here is a factiod. The last 5 CGC 9.8s sold on ebay all went for over $800 convincingly. The movie is in the past, but the book is still undeniably strong in the market place. Most movie hyped books tend to drop like rocks after the movie. No doubt about the demand, its there.

 

If you are going to quote facts, please don't post unsubstantiated POV (movie books drop like rocks after the movie) at the end.

 

Here is some data unfiltered:

 

NM 98 CGC 9.8 GPA Data

High Low Avg

2016 $988 $678 $830

2015 $1,299 $662 $801

2014 $1,000 $300 $548

 

So first of all, book is still way down from two year highs. Second, prices on this book are all over the map because people bought in all over the place and are still dumping the massive quantities in high grade in the market. Third, there aren't really any other books to compare it to given its abundance of high grade copies in market....so I will use IH181 as the only other proxy I can think of (feel free to provide another that fits the mold).

 

IH 181 CGC 9.8 GPA Data

High Low Avg

2016 $13,145 $11,702 $12,424

2015 $13,000 $11,000 $12,226

2014 $16,250 $9,261 $10,989

2013 $12,500 $7,601

2012 $12,750 $9,000

2011 $13,500

2010 $21,000 $11,950

2009 $26,501 $15,000

2008 $25,000 $15,000

 

Movies in 2009 (Origins), 2011 (First Class), 2013 (Wolverine) and 2014 (DOFP)

 

Seems like prices hold for about a year post movie (give or take a few months) and then drop. Additionally this book (like NM 98) is regularly a top submitted book and the census continues to drive supply fairly regularly which helps drive the price down.

 

Based on this I would conclude that you probably have ~6 months of price flatness on NM 98 before decline until the next small bump. Then another period of a small increase (for the sequel) before flatness and further decline.

 

Definitely no behavior showing that 60 days post movie (i.e. after the movie) that prices are "dropping like a rock..." If anything the comparison shows that NM 98 is performing similarity to a comparable book with major movie hype and based on the growing CGC/slabbed supply, has significant downside.

 

:shrug:

Edited March 28, 2016 by rfoiii

[StuporMan]

OP, see thread on NM 98 being the next Hulk 181...

[Junkdrawer]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

[Junkdrawer]

Also need to factor that news stand copies of NM98 sell higher than the direct and GPA fails to differentiate the two and further screwing up your numbers

[BarryAllen]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

[Junkdrawer]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point. Edited March 28, 2016 by Junkdrawer

[BarryAllen]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

[Junkdrawer]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

Housing is more a necessity as we need a roof over our head. We never need comic books. The last dip in the housing market was circumstances cast from an economic collapse or recession due to job losses to mortgages going unpaid which lead to bank bail outs. Mind you comics did very well in those same time frames amazingly.One thing for certain is that they arent making any more land and unless there is counterfeiting, they wont be making anymore NM98s. Why does NM98 have to fail in your book? Is it that what goes up must come down scientific mentality? We have reached an amazing place in this hobby we have never had in back in the day. These Marvel and DC movies and TV shows, yes Walking Dead's domination of Sunday nights are the new drivers of the market, its creating new fans and taking the hobby to new directions. Its had to compare our hobby now to any time in the past. Its almost impossible. Comic book auctions are every week on Heritage and monthly on clink, MCS and CC. I wish I had ebay in the 90's. The original question should have been when will the comic book market bubble collapse? And not for nothing, all I posted was an ebay market report of the last 5 sales of 9.8s all being ended at over $800. Pretty factual info. Look at your averages that you posted over the past years, not the highs and lows. Trending north sir.

[BarryAllen]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

Housing is more a necessity as we need a roof over our head. We never need comic books. The last dip in the housing market was circumstances cast from an economic collapse or recession due to job losses to mortgages going unpaid which lead to bank bail outs. Mind you comics did very well in those same time frames amazingly.One thing for certain is that they arent making any more land and unless there is counterfeiting, they wont be making anymore NM98s. Why does NM98 have to fail in your book? Is it that what goes up must come down scientific mentality? We have reached an amazing place in this hobby we have never had in back in the day. These Marvel and DC movies and TV shows, yes Walking Dead's domination of Sunday nights are the new drivers of the market, its creating new fans and taking the hobby to new directions. Its had to compare our hobby now to any time in the past. Its almost impossible. Comic book auctions are every week on Heritage and monthly on clink, MCS and CC. I wish I had ebay in the 90's. The original question should have been when will the comic book market bubble collapse? And not for nothing, all I posted was an ebay market report of the last 5 sales of 9.8s all being ended at over $800. Pretty factual info. Look at your averages that you posted over the past years, not the highs and lows. Trending north sir.

 

You are right, the housing example was a loose one.

 

My point exactly was that it was trending north, but using the IH 181 example I was arguing that it is due for a correction as well. Over-saturation + poorly written one-dimensional character + abundant supply = long-term failure.

 

I don't subscribe to the total "what goes up must come down," I am just in the "Deadpool is a poorly written character" group. I think speculation behind characters like him are bad for the hobby as they are less sustainable than many other characters. Speculation boom books like NM 98 that also have a huge abundancy of supply in market (which is usually misrepresented) are homing beacons for the flippers and profiteers that are bad for the hobby (all hobbies for that matter).

 

I agree that the comparison is not perfect and history does not predict the future, but I also believe in applying logical available information to guide decision making. That doesn't mean I am right, but it gives me a higher liklihood of being so over time.

 

My last point is that not all attention on the hobby is good attention. If a bunch of people buy this book expecting it to be a good investment get burned - they are more likely to stop collecting valuable books altogether. People having a sour experience is bad for the hobby.