When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[Junkdrawer]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

Housing is more a necessity as we need a roof over our head. We never need comic books. The last dip in the housing market was circumstances cast from an economic collapse or recession due to job losses to mortgages going unpaid which lead to bank bail outs. Mind you comics did very well in those same time frames amazingly.One thing for certain is that they arent making any more land and unless there is counterfeiting, they wont be making anymore NM98s. Why does NM98 have to fail in your book? Is it that what goes up must come down scientific mentality? We have reached an amazing place in this hobby we have never had in back in the day. These Marvel and DC movies and TV shows, yes Walking Dead's domination of Sunday nights are the new drivers of the market, its creating new fans and taking the hobby to new directions. Its had to compare our hobby now to any time in the past. Its almost impossible. Comic book auctions are every week on Heritage and monthly on clink, MCS and CC. I wish I had ebay in the 90's. The original question should have been when will the comic book market bubble collapse? And not for nothing, all I posted was an ebay market report of the last 5 sales of 9.8s all being ended at over $800. Pretty factual info. Look at your averages that you posted over the past years, not the highs and lows. Trending north sir.

 

You are right, the housing example was a loose one.

 

My point exactly was that it was trending north, but using the IH 181 example I was arguing that it is due for a correction as well. Over-saturation + poorly written one-dimensional character + abundant supply = long-term failure.

 

I don't subscribe to the total "what goes up must come down," I am just in the "Deadpool is a poorly written character" group. I think speculation behind characters like him are bad for the hobby as they are less sustainable than many other characters. Speculation boom books like NM 98 that also have a huge abundancy of supply in market (which is usually misrepresented) are homing beacons for the flippers and profiteers that are bad for the hobby (all hobbies for that matter).

 

I agree that the comparison is not perfect and history does not predict the future, but I also believe in applying logical available information to guide decision making. That doesn't mean I am right, but it gives me a higher liklihood of being so over time.

 

My last point is that not all attention on the hobby is good attention. If a bunch of people buy this book expecting it to be a good investment get burned - they are more likely to stop collecting valuable books altogether. People having a sour experience is bad for the hobby.

One question Ive been forgetting to ask you. You use the term "One trick pony" One Dimensional" when you refer to the hobbies hottest characters such as Deadpool, Ive seen you have the same feelings for Harley, and looks like you just threw Wolverine into the mix. So who is the character your on board with? I see in your sig line The Flash. Other than run really fast (almost as fast as Superman) what else does he do? His one trick isnt even that good. But I'm guessing you know some others.

[BarryAllen]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

Housing is more a necessity as we need a roof over our head. We never need comic books. The last dip in the housing market was circumstances cast from an economic collapse or recession due to job losses to mortgages going unpaid which lead to bank bail outs. Mind you comics did very well in those same time frames amazingly.One thing for certain is that they arent making any more land and unless there is counterfeiting, they wont be making anymore NM98s. Why does NM98 have to fail in your book? Is it that what goes up must come down scientific mentality? We have reached an amazing place in this hobby we have never had in back in the day. These Marvel and DC movies and TV shows, yes Walking Dead's domination of Sunday nights are the new drivers of the market, its creating new fans and taking the hobby to new directions. Its had to compare our hobby now to any time in the past. Its almost impossible. Comic book auctions are every week on Heritage and monthly on clink, MCS and CC. I wish I had ebay in the 90's. The original question should have been when will the comic book market bubble collapse? And not for nothing, all I posted was an ebay market report of the last 5 sales of 9.8s all being ended at over $800. Pretty factual info. Look at your averages that you posted over the past years, not the highs and lows. Trending north sir.

 

You are right, the housing example was a loose one.

 

My point exactly was that it was trending north, but using the IH 181 example I was arguing that it is due for a correction as well. Over-saturation + poorly written one-dimensional character + abundant supply = long-term failure.

 

I don't subscribe to the total "what goes up must come down," I am just in the "Deadpool is a poorly written character" group. I think speculation behind characters like him are bad for the hobby as they are less sustainable than many other characters. Speculation boom books like NM 98 that also have a huge abundancy of supply in market (which is usually misrepresented) are homing beacons for the flippers and profiteers that are bad for the hobby (all hobbies for that matter).

 

I agree that the comparison is not perfect and history does not predict the future, but I also believe in applying logical available information to guide decision making. That doesn't mean I am right, but it gives me a higher liklihood of being so over time.

 

My last point is that not all attention on the hobby is good attention. If a bunch of people buy this book expecting it to be a good investment get burned - they are more likely to stop collecting valuable books altogether. People having a sour experience is bad for the hobby.

One question Ive been forgetting to ask you. You use the term "One trick pony" One Dimensional" when you refer to the hobbies hottest characters such as Deadpool, Ive seen you have the same feelings for Harley, and looks like you just threw Wolverine into the mix. So who is the character your on board with? I see in your sig line The Flash. Other than run really fast (almost as fast as Superman) what else does he do? His one trick isnt even that good. But I'm guessing you know some others.

 

I didn't mean to include Wolverine in the group if I did. Deadpool for sure and Harley was until very recently with her own title.

 

By one dimensional I mean it has nothing to do with the power set or abilities, but rather the core of the character. Flash (whom is in my signature line) is a hero, father, son, soul who has experienced and caused great loss. Over time he has overcome human problems as well as superhuman ones. He is more than just his speed, he is the hope of a city and brings pride to his work whether a forensic expert, detective or other incarnation.

 

Deadpool is about extreme violence mixed with hyper-sexualizing situations. His jokes are the same with a revolving set of others for him to "joke on." They gave him more humanity in the movie than I have ever seen and then they still mostly devolved into jokes like: masterbating with his own baby hand...

 

There is a difference there and it will be the difference whether or not they around are in another 20 years. Deadpool's brand of non-PC inappropriate behavior is in style right now. It won't be forever. However, children will always need heroes to learn from and adults will always need them to remember and inspire them.

 

FYI - I did like the Deapool movie, it was entertaining. He just doesn't stand up is all.

[Noodlez]

Can't we just compare sales within the last few months or so ?

 

 

Between 181, NM 98, etc...

[StuporMan]

The Flash is more than one-dimensional:

 

[BarryAllen]

Can't we just compare sales within the last few months or so ?

 

 

Between 181, NM 98, etc...

 

Mostly because it has been done to death...

 

Here are GPA 9.8 trend lines:

 

NM 98 - slightly up versus 24 months, flat for the last 12

 

IH 181 - solid growth over 24 months, 12 months have most flat until very recently

 

:shrug:

[PBK78]

Was deadpool always goofy and breaking the 4th wall? No right? Wasn't he part of the weapon x program? Sorry just trying to recall original mythology.

[Noodlez]

... 181 looks like my relationship status.

 

Up and down with very little mediocrity.

[VintageComics]

Can't we just compare sales within the last few months or so ?

 

 

Between 181, NM 98, etc...

 

Mostly because it has been done to death...

 

Here are GPA 9.8 trend lines:

 

NM 98 - slightly up versus 24 months, flat for the last 12

 

IH 181 - solid growth over 24 months, 12 months have most flat until very recently

 

:shrug:

 

You're being very selective with your information.

 

The Deadpool movie was announced 19 months ago so of course it's going to go up relatively sharply.

 

The real point here is that the book's average has steadily increased since after the movie pop.

 

Why you're comparing it to Hulk #181 I have no idea. It's like comparing Chuck Norris to Monicca Bellucci.

[Junkdrawer]

Sounds like an echo in here

[BarryAllen]

Can't we just compare sales within the last few months or so ?

 

 

Between 181, NM 98, etc...

 

Mostly because it has been done to death...

 

Here are GPA 9.8 trend lines:

 

NM 98 - slightly up versus 24 months, flat for the last 12

 

IH 181 - solid growth over 24 months, 12 months have most flat until very recently

 

:shrug:

 

You're being very selective with your information.

 

The Deadpool movie was announced 19 months ago so of course it's going to go up relatively sharply.

 

The real point here is that the book's average has steadily increased since after the movie pop.

 

Why you're comparing it to Hulk #181 I have no idea. It's like comparing Chuck Norris to Monicca Bellucci.

 

Voodoo asked for IH 181 data. :shrug:

 

As far as "selective data" I just posted the sales control chart for sales over the last 12 and 24 months. Not sure why that isn't a good view of the data?

 

Lastly, your "real point" isn't substantial. Last 4 sales in GPA were all under $800 (actually $755 or less). High of 2016 is $988 and low is $678, which includes only 90 days and about 45 days post movie release. There isn't some huge success story here or really a story at all.

 

The 12 month average is $817 and 90 day average is $828, which is a whopping $11 (+1.3%). Even look back at the 2015 average and the 90 day average is only up $27 (+3.3%)... For the way all the cheerleaders talk around here I would have expected bigger results in the data.

 

:shrug:

[MetalPSI]

[BarryAllen]

[MetalPSI]

[StuporMan]

[90sChild]

So can we start applying this deadpool bubble to all deadpool-related characters now?

 

Avengers #196 1st Taskmaster has gone from a $40 book to a $150 book in less than 6 months.

CGC 9.4 copies are selling for over $200.

 

New Mutants #87 1st Cable doubled in price after the movie mentioned he would be in the deadpool movie #2 after the credits. CGC 9.4 ranges from $175-225.

 

how many other characters will people engage with this massive speculation on?

We should start calling it the deadpool effect.

[MetalPSI]

Well if Noone buys them at the inflated price, they will come down faster than slower. I can personally wait years before picking up a NM 87. Not like there aren't copies to be had

[Paddy_McShillihan]

Maybe after Deadpool 3 ? 4 ?

[Brian48]

So can we start applying this deadpool bubble to all deadpool-related characters now?

 

Avengers #196 1st Taskmaster has gone from a $40 book to a $150 book in less than 6 months.

CGC 9.4 copies are selling for over $200.

 

New Mutants #87 1st Cable doubled in price after the movie mentioned he would be in the deadpool movie #2 after the credits. CGC 9.4 ranges from $175-225.

 

how many other characters will people engage with this massive speculation on?

We should start calling it the deadpool effect.

 

New Gods #7. It's Steppenwolf for God's sake. I think this book is going to crash HARD one day.

 

Although I do have to admit, it's probably the best single issue and story of the Kirby run.

[Aweandlorder]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

[jaybuck43]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?