When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[mattn792]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

Depends, were you planning to eventually sell and cash in on the hype?

[jaybuck43]

At the time (2013) no. But, watching the market explode on Deadpool, I probably would have been tempted to let it go if I could make a substantial (read $5,000+) profit.

[punksdropdirtysrh]

Who knows what the book will be worth in 10+ years. But recently it seems to me that its losing its steam. I see a lot of copies not selling with asking prices that would have easily sold six months ago. And it seems the 9.8 value has dropped 100-200 bucks.

 

Big fan of Deadpool...never been a fan of the hype of this book. But I'm also not hoarding multiples.

[the blob]

I would venture to say that the CGC census back in 2008 for IH181 was rather thin and sales of 9.8s were above and beyond reality based on census numbers. Now that the census has been growing and there are more easily obtainable 9.8s it weighs in far more than any movie. Take the TMNT1 in 9.8 back in the infancy of the census, I believe one most notable sale was 25k, but only last year you had several chances to obtain a 9.8 for under 16k and that was after the first movie. They are back up to 20k on the horizon of a second movie so we'll see what happens. The CGC census is something you fail to factor in. It's an important factor to ignore especially on a IH 181 in the years you posted.

 

I didn't factor it in because NM98 has seen a similar pattern on census growth and outside of that it really cannot be "factored-in" because there isn't a way to measure people's understanding or misgivings about "rarity" relative to a specific time period.

 

As far as the "direct vs newsstands" - while I don't have data to refute your point, do you have data to support it? Without the differentiation in GPA can you produce anything to show the material differences in price and the relative time frames to show there is an impact?

I personally have bought and sold new stand and direct. I've seen the difference. I have just recently sold on eBay a pair of 8.5s same ending time both with same page quality and the newsie went $25 more. The both presented alike. I just think that some of those highs on GPA are likely news stand copies and above the norm. Similar to the way GPA does not differentiate between the WD1 black and white mature warning labels. We've all seen that the black sell for more but I'm sure you want that report on your desk in the morning as well. I don't have one. I can say that my finger is on the pulse of this hobby every day and I try to take in as much news, sales results and I pay even closer attention to books that concern me personally. I've got nothing to prove stat wise, just got it in my head. Sure I scramble to research before pulling the trigger on any given day, nobody is all knowing. I've got eyes, can read, and can even see writing on the wall in terms of trend and hype. Fact is since you first asked WHEN will the NM98 bubble burst, til this day it hasn't IMO, I don't see that it ever will. One trick pony or not. He's gotten well past the bubble point.

 

To be clear I am not questioning or invalidating your experience. I know newsstands and direct editions can sell for different prices (just like WD 1 white versus black); however, that is the extent to which I can validate the assumption. When it comes to actual physical market sales and timing over the course of years - without data to substantiate timing of the sales relative to edition and the movies I cannot substantiate your claim. Based on that your argument is circumstantial at best and doesn't disprove what I put forth.

 

Side note - there never really is past a "bubble point." If anything the housing market taught us it can take decades for a problem to mature and for the market to adjust. In this case I don't think it will take decades, but he is certainly not "out of the woods."

Housing is more a necessity as we need a roof over our head. We never need comic books. The last dip in the housing market was circumstances cast from an economic collapse or recession due to job losses to mortgages going unpaid which lead to bank bail outs. Mind you comics did very well in those same time frames amazingly.One thing for certain is that they arent making any more land and unless there is counterfeiting, they wont be making anymore NM98s. Why does NM98 have to fail in your book? Is it that what goes up must come down scientific mentality? We have reached an amazing place in this hobby we have never had in back in the day. These Marvel and DC movies and TV shows, yes Walking Dead's domination of Sunday nights are the new drivers of the market, its creating new fans and taking the hobby to new directions. Its had to compare our hobby now to any time in the past. Its almost impossible. Comic book auctions are every week on Heritage and monthly on clink, MCS and CC. I wish I had ebay in the 90's. The original question should have been when will the comic book market bubble collapse? And not for nothing, all I posted was an ebay market report of the last 5 sales of 9.8s all being ended at over $800. Pretty factual info. Look at your averages that you posted over the past years, not the highs and lows. Trending north sir.

 

You are right, the housing example was a loose one.

 

My point exactly was that it was trending north, but using the IH 181 example I was arguing that it is due for a correction as well. Over-saturation + poorly written one-dimensional character + abundant supply = long-term failure.

 

I don't subscribe to the total "what goes up must come down," I am just in the "Deadpool is a poorly written character" group. I think speculation behind characters like him are bad for the hobby as they are less sustainable than many other characters. Speculation boom books like NM 98 that also have a huge abundancy of supply in market (which is usually misrepresented) are homing beacons for the flippers and profiteers that are bad for the hobby (all hobbies for that matter).

 

I agree that the comparison is not perfect and history does not predict the future, but I also believe in applying logical available information to guide decision making. That doesn't mean I am right, but it gives me a higher liklihood of being so over time.

 

My last point is that not all attention on the hobby is good attention. If a bunch of people buy this book expecting it to be a good investment get burned - they are more likely to stop collecting valuable books altogether. People having a sour experience is bad for the hobby.

 

Deadpool seems just as popular among my son's pre-teen cohort as Spiderman or Wolverine, and that was before the movie, which I find pretty amazing because Deadpool has made very limited appearances in cartoons and what not. I bought my son a stack of Deadpool TPBs (from Milehigh of all places...don't judge me, the codeword made the prices make sense...) and he read the bejezuz out of them and sat around his room with his friends reading them cracking up and babbling about them.

 

He is also into Gwenpool. Before I got him a Gwenpool comic. How, I have no idea. I guess there is a ton of stuff on the internet they can look at.

[*Bronze age fan*]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

[*Bronze age fan*]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

[JollyComics]

Remembered we thought Walking Dead #1 would be a bubble burst few years ago? It's still hot ever since. It is only 13 years ago since it was on the shelf. I sold few CGC 9.8 copies for about $1200-$1600 but it goes over $1900.

 

NM #98 is now 25 years old.

 

ASM #129 is now 42 year old.

 

I remembered Avengers #1 copies were in Fair and Poor condition that were sold in the range of only $50 to $90 in 2002. Now they are selling in the range of $395 to $585.

 

Never know when the price will be skyrocketed.

[jaybuck43]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

 

Hey Frankie. Hope things are going well out west, and suburb living is treating you and the Mrs.

[1950's war comics]

Kind of ironic that it was the horrible cover and interior art on comics like NM98 helped drive a generation away from collecting comics back then, most have never come back.

[valiantman]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

[*Bronze age fan*]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

 

Hey Frankie. Hope things are going well out west, and suburb living is treating you and the Mrs.

 

 

 

Loving it bro. Hoboken stunk compared to where I live now. Because I live in the forest.....the leaves falling are defeating my soul trying to keep up with it.....but it beats the guys digging thur my garbage and the drunks yelling for no apparent reason at 3AM in front of my house. I might hear a fox cry at night here. Much nicer. . You have a car? Come up one day....will have my wife BBQ before it gets to cold.

[*Bronze age fan*]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

 

Love the stats but I still don't get it bro. Let's just look at the two characters. Should be Deadpool winning all day. I do not have a NYX 3. Would like to get one. The price is silly I think.

[Aweandlorder]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

Exactly. This also answers those who compare NM98 to WD.

It doesnt add up because of the supply.

In other words, it would be easier to compare the supply of back then an ASM129 to a NM98, whereas a book like WD and to an extent NYX3 have smaller numbers.

But realistically, if you had a time machine and were to go to 1986 or any year prior and scoop up every copy of ASM129 under $5, you'd have totaled more in value today than if you were to look for WD #1 at any time

[the blob]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

 

I am a lawyer. I live in the $1 and $2 boxes. (Like Oscar the Grouch)

 

 

[paperheart]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

ding, ding. reads like someone took Economics 101 rather than Econ 101

[jaybuck43]

In 1986 ASM #129 was a $2.00 book.. The Punisher Mini Series took off and gave the decade plus old character a boost which by 1987 started to show promise.. By 1988 ASM 129 was a $40+ book..

The mentality in those years (1987-1990s) with common speculators was to invest in new books, but if you were wise, you wouldve bought an ASM 129 for the same price you could buy a hot B&W indie title in 1987, or a Valiant hot book in early 90s...

Same can be said about NM98.

I believe that NM98 has entered the pantheon of mega keys and will grow to be the grail that ASM 129 is today in 10-20 years time. Maybe sooner

 

 

And thats my of the day

 

Back in August of 2013 I was the underbidder on the NM 98 10.0. Both publicly and privately people told me not to be too upset, that copies would be coming out of the woodwork and that I should be glad I missed it, because there would most definitely be more 10.0s. Now, 3 years later there is still only one lone 10.0 in the census and the book has exploded because of the movie (and upcoming sequel). So, how mad should I be today that I missed this 3 years ago?

 

 

Didn't know you rolled like that. Nice to be a lawyer.

 

I am a lawyer. I live in the $1 and $2 boxes. (Like Oscar the Grouch)

 

 

Sold my soul to the god of IP... At least he didn't ask for something stupid like my marriage.

[drotto]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

Exactly. This also answers those who compare NM98 to WD.

It doesnt add up because of the supply.

In other words, it would be easier to compare the supply of back then an ASM129 to a NM98, whereas a book like WD and to an extent NYX3 have smaller numbers.

But realistically, if you had a time machine and were to go to 1986 or any year prior and scoop up every copy of ASM129 under $5, you'd have totaled more in value today than if you were to look for WD #1 at any time

 

The old saying that hindsight is 20/20 will always apply to comics. I wish I had an Overstreet from 20 years in the future. So get me my Delorian.

 

As for NYX 3 vs NM 98 vs WD 1. Its all supply and demand. NM 98 had a massive print run around 300,000, NYX 3 (if I remember right) was around 40,000, the original WD was somewhere around 7500. That pretty much gives you all you need to know.

Edited October 19, 2016 by drotto

[*Bronze age fan*]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

ding, ding. reads like someone took Economics 101 rather than Econ 101

 

 

 

I get supply and demand. And still don't get it. Deadpool should smoke NYX 3 cause not a lot of collectors know who that is or want it. Not even sure why that blew up. Full disclosure. I had NYX 1-3. Bought new off the stands. Sold them for 50 bucks I think on ebay years ago, when I was getting rid of some new stuff. Now I see the #3 is hot. Had a mint unread copy too.

[drotto]

I don't understand how NM #98 copes are worth less the NYX #3 in the same grade. Deadpool has turned very mainstream to know (Non comic fan) who that charater is......NYX #3.......Not so much.

 

The "total market size" is a better way to compare two books (in my opinion).

NM 98 has 2,156 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $700. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $1.5Million.

NYX 3 has 1,016 copies in CGC 9.8 with a 90-day average of $780. That's a "total market size" (in 9.8) of $800,000.

 

New Mutants 98 is definitely the bigger market, with enough copies to satisfy the demand at $700 each.

NYX 3 is a smaller market, but the number of copies being lower requires the price of $780 each to satisfy demand.

 

The price alone doesn't really tell the story for any comic... combine price and supply to get further in the comparison.

 

ding, ding. reads like someone took Economics 101 rather than Econ 101

 

 

 

I get supply and demand. And still don't get it. Deadpool should smoke NYX 3 cause not a lot of collectors know who that is or want it. Not even sure why that blew up. Full disclosure. I had NYX 1-3. Bought new off the stands. Sold them for 50 bucks I think on ebay years ago, when I was getting rid of some new stuff. Now I see the #3 is hot. Had a mint unread copy too.

 

The only thing I can say is that X-23 has been slowly growing in popularity and exposure in the comics for the last 20 years. For all practical purposed she is Wolverine now, and her popularity continues to grow. Other than Deadpool, she is the most popular new character that Marvel has come up with in a long time. NYX 3 in 9.8 was about $400 at the beginning of the year. The news started to trickle out that she was going to be in the next Wolverine film (now confirmed), and the prices basically doubled within two weeks.

Edited October 19, 2016 by drotto

[Ryan.]

The only thing I can say is that X-23 has been slowly growing in popularity and exposure in the comics for the last 20 years.