Any books red hot 5-10 years ago that have now fallen?

[jcjames]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

Incorrect. Look at how many people already left the hobby and these forums just because they couldn't win at the 'crack, press and resubmit' game. Speculation isn't of itself necessarily bad. Speculators are. Anyone with an advanced degree in business or finance would not be speculating in common mass produced items; myself included, at least not for profit. For love of some of the said items; yes.

 

The problem occurs when these individuals forgo other stable investments in order to do this. I am sorry but right now that Nintendo Amiibo you bought may seem to be 'rare', but in reality close to six million have been sold. These will be worth very little in the future much like most modern day comic books. Since the Walking Dead premiered how many other valuable modern age books have slipped through the grasp of the comic market? Is it really worth spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars attempting to find the next great hit? To me that is work, but then again I have a degree in business and can easily make money in any financial climate. Sometimes I have to wonder how the mind of the speculator thinks. Do these people really think that twenty to thirty years from now they will have the same priorities and interests and just happen to remember where that box of toys they bought was in hopes those items went up in value? That is really quite funny. Even at the age of 38 I can tell you your interests are bound to change and as you get older time seems to move faster and faster. I don't have too many thirty year spans left, do you?

Think [gambler + day-trader + lottery-player]. Make a lot of money real fast flipping books.

 

Or maybe some 20-somethings might think that current 1st-appearance moderns might return 100,000+% on their investment in 50 years (like SA 10-center keys have)

 

 

I like what oakman said at the top.

 

 

 

 

[oakman29]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

Incorrect. Look at how many people already left the hobby and these forums just because they couldn't win at the 'crack, press and resubmit' game. Speculation isn't of itself necessarily bad. Speculators are. Anyone with an advanced degree in business or finance would not be speculating in common mass produced items; myself included, at least not for profit. For love of some of the said items; yes.

 

The problem occurs when these individuals forgo other stable investments in order to do this. I am sorry but right now that Nintendo Amiibo you bought may seem to be 'rare', but in reality close to six million have been sold. These will be worth very little in the future much like most modern day comic books. Since the Walking Dead premiered how many other valuable modern age books have slipped through the grasp of the comic market? Is it really worth spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars attempting to find the next great hit? To me that is work, but then again I have a degree in business and can easily make money in any financial climate. Sometimes I have to wonder how the mind of the speculator thinks. Do these people really think that twenty to thirty years from now they will have the same priorities and interests and just happen to remember where that box of toys they bought was in hopes those items went up in value? That is really quite funny. Even at the age of 38 I can tell you your interests are bound to change and as you get older time seems to move faster and faster. I don't have too many thirty year spans left, do you?

Think [gambler + day-trader + lottery-player]. Make a lot of money real fast flipping books.

 

Or maybe some 20-somethings might think that current 1st-appearance moderns might return 100,000+% on their investment in 50 years (like SA 10-center keys have)

 

 

I like what oakman said at the top.

 

 

 

 

mint sunshine isn't the only one with a business degree.I just don't shove it down everyone's throat.

[HighStakesComics]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

Incorrect. Look at how many people already left the hobby and these forums just because they couldn't win at the 'crack, press and resubmit' game. Speculation isn't of itself necessarily bad. Speculators are. Anyone with an advanced degree in business or finance would not be speculating in common mass produced items; myself included, at least not for profit. For love of some of the said items; yes.

 

The problem occurs when these individuals forgo other stable investments in order to do this. I am sorry but right now that Nintendo Amiibo you bought may seem to be 'rare', but in reality close to six million have been sold. These will be worth very little in the future much like most modern day comic books. Since the Walking Dead premiered how many other valuable modern age books have slipped through the grasp of the comic market? Is it really worth spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars attempting to find the next great hit? To me that is work, but then again I have a degree in business and can easily make money in any financial climate. Sometimes I have to wonder how the mind of the speculator thinks. Do these people really think that twenty to thirty years from now they will have the same priorities and interests and just happen to remember where that box of toys they bought was in hopes those items went up in value? That is really quite funny. Even at the age of 38 I can tell you your interests are bound to change and as you get older time seems to move faster and faster. I don't have too many thirty year spans left, do you?

Think [gambler + day-trader + lottery-player]. Make a lot of money real fast flipping books.

 

Or maybe some 20-somethings might think that current 1st-appearance moderns might return 100,000+% on their investment in 50 years (like SA 10-center keys have)

 

 

I like what oakman said at the top.

 

 

 

 

mint sunshine isn't the only one with a business degree.I just don't shove it down everyone's throat.

 

Stud

 

English Lit here with minors in bongtokes and video games

[fastballspecial]

there are people on here with MBAs. Business degree doesn't mean a whole lot anymore. Shoving it down our throats makes it even worth less.

 

[miraclemet]

On a side yet related note, the mixing of the two genres in cinema has resulted in both positive (Firefly) and mixed (Cowboys & Aliens) critical and box office results.

 

I'd say when someone gets the balance right (Cameron, Nolan or whoever)... then box office gold awaits

 

xxx ooo

 

Rupp

 

 

 

maybe this series will heat up?

[01TheDude]

On a side yet related note, the mixing of the two genres in cinema has resulted in both positive (Firefly) and mixed (Cowboys & Aliens) critical and box office results.

 

I'd say when someone gets the balance right (Cameron, Nolan or whoever)... then box office gold awaits

 

xxx ooo

 

Rupp

 

 

 

maybe this series will heat up?

 

is that where they got the idea to fake the moon landing ?

look like they are in Arizona

[jimjum12]

Cowboys and Aliens .....GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Davenport]

Tough to imagine Spurs Jackson sashaying into Tombstone in them red Daisy Dukes.

[The-Collector]

On a side yet related note, the mixing of the two genres in cinema has resulted in both positive (Firefly) and mixed (Cowboys & Aliens) critical and box office results.

 

I'd say when someone gets the balance right (Cameron, Nolan or whoever)... then box office gold awaits

 

xxx ooo

 

Rupp

 

 

 

maybe this series will heat up?

 

is that where they got the idea to fake the moon landing ?

look like they are in Arizona

 

Good pick. No 44 is a favorite. A mash up of war, cowboys and space might work even better:

 

[thecollector881]

On a side yet related note, the mixing of the two genres in cinema has resulted in both positive (Firefly) and mixed (Cowboys & Aliens) critical and box office results.

 

I'd say when someone gets the balance right (Cameron, Nolan or whoever)... then box office gold awaits

 

xxx ooo

 

Rupp

 

 

 

maybe this series will heat up?

 

is that where they got the idea to fake the moon landing ?

look like they are in Arizona

 

Good pick. No 44 is a favorite. A mash up of war, cowboys and space might work even better:

 

Would cowboys vs aliens count ? sorry didn't see that had already been mentioned

[dupont2005]

Just because the books you buy are old does not mean they will never depreciate or that you can't make a bad buy.

 

Also, when you throw in graded books and paying super premiums for microscopic differences that not even experts can always agree on, it gets even worse. Allowing things like movie announcements and number of copies in grade to influence price is more likely to lead to disaster than not.

 

Action 1 was always a smart buy. For the past fifty years at least. Now, Action #1 in single highest graded with new movie hype, it could take years, DECADES, for something like that to recover after two overenthusiastic bidders bring it to an unrealistic level. It never took a movie to make the thing valuable before, and in fact, since the black and white TV show right on up to the trilogy, nothing outside of comics really influenced the price of it. Now all the sudden every movie announcement is an automatic payday for anyone with a copy of any comic relating to the movie in any way.

 

Yeah, I can see a lot of potential for Silver and Bronze regrets. I can even see potential for a day when somewhere on the internet there's a thread about "I can't believe we used to consider that a key just because of that movie!"

[delekkerste]

I am just curious - why would the non-collector popular society tire of them? IOW, what makes you so sure?

 

Zombie movies have been around since the 60's, and so has James Bond movies. Star Wars, since the mid-1970's. No tiring of any of those yet. Batman from 1989 was sort of the grand-daddy that started it all, although there are arguments to be made about the Christopher Reeves Superman movies being that grand-daddy. If so, then Tim Burton's Batman was the daddy.

 

None of those franchises that you mentioned have consistently maintained peak popularity throughout their existence - their appeal has waxed and waned with the collective social mood of audiences. The James Bond franchise crested in popularity with Goldfinger and Thunderball (right around when the Swinging Sixties peaked and the inflation-adjusted stock market hit a multi-year high that was not surpassed until the 1990s). By the early 1980s, both it and its then-star, Roger Moore, were considered past their prime, and the series didn't really catch fire again until the bull market of the mid-'90s (even taking a 6-year absence between Licence to Kill and Goldeneye).

 

Zombies haven't been consistently popular by any stretch of the imagination - I'm sure you can point to several multi-year periods where there was no major hit in that genre since it first blew up in the late 1960s. Remember when vampires were all the rage and Hollywood couldn't get enough of them? And, of course, Batman & Robin helped kill off the capes & tights superhero genre for several years in the late '90s.

 

Even Disney's principal characters (Mickey Mouse, etc.) have not remained as consistently popular as you might think. The Socionomics Institute has done separate studies on how each of the above franchises/genres (and others) have waxed and waned in popularity according to the collective social mood. Most of the full versions I believe are only available by subscription only, but here are some links to partial reports and snippets I found online:

 

Negative Mood-Themed Films

 

Of Mice and Mood: Animation's History Through a Socionomic Lens

 

A Socionomic Take on James Bond

 

Pioneering Studies in Socionomics - Popular Culture

 

So, no, comic book films won't remain this popular forever. Not that they will disappear completely, but, their number and popularity will go in cycles. Just like everything else.

[delekkerste]

Plus, Disney is in the business of monetizing their characters for perpetuity. They will do where re they can to keep Marvel characters front and center in popular culture.

 

It won't matter that kids aren't introduced to them from reading pamphlets as most of us were. How that relates to any of the collecting comic books is the question. I believe that enough will seek out the keys, not runs, to maintain values. But nothing is guaranteed. Lots of credible arguments point to history repeating itself, and that comic books are a paper collectible in an future that appears to not value them as much we did.

 

Part of monetizing characters into perpetuity is recognizing when the public has tired of them and putting them on a shelf for a while. I don't know what is going on nowadays, but I remember when Disney would put some of its classic animation movies/characters on ice for years and bring them back periodically. And, while this was before the Disney takeover, remember when the original Star Wars trilogy was not always in print on VHS or DVD? I have no doubt that the same will happen to superhero franchises, and the genre as a whole as well. I mean, it's kind of absurd that they've already rebooted both Spider-Man and Fantastic Four in such a short period of time (and reaction to the new Spidey franchise was decidedly mixed at best). Yes, GOTG proved to be a surprise hit, but will other third and fourth-tier characters enjoy similar success as people inevitably tire of yet another Iron Man movie?

 

Anyway, my belief is that all the Hollywood films have done is energize the existing fan/collector/speculator base as well as brought a number of lapsed fans/collectors/speculators back into the fold. I don't see a lot of people throwing down real money for comic books that weren't already involved in the hobby at some point before the movies really took off. So, I think it's a huge deal that people aren't getting introduced to the characters and the stories through pamphlets as opposed to other media, even digital comics. It used to be a direct step from buying pamphlets to collecting back issues. Now there is a much larger step or even two or three steps to go from the movies to either digital or paper to back issues (and even farther to become obsessed about condition, slabs, 9.6s vs. 9.8s, etc.)

 

Say what you will about MintCollector, but he's not wrong about the Millennials - this generation is growing up with digital, disposable, shareable, often free content and is simply not as interested as preceding generations were in accumulating stuff, especially not expensive stuff that their parents and grandparents collected. Not to mention, they have, as a group, relatively poor career/financial prospects while much of what they might need/want to buy, from houses on the coasts to AF #15s, is at or near historic highs. No wonder this generation (and likely the one after it) is/will be so into renting, sharing and consuming/experiencing vs. accumulating stuff that they have no room or budget for.

 

Remember, this is the first generation to eschew traditional fast food joints, sugary carbonated beverages (aside from heavily caffeinated energy drinks), traditional mass-produced beers, etc. as well. The generational shift in the past has been evolutionary; the generational shifts we are seeing now are all sped up in the digital era and are revolutionary - you are seeing trends that were in place for DECADES and assumed to be permanent now reversing abruptly. Extrapolate the past trajectory of the popularity of everything from McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Barbie, comic book collecting, taxicab service, etc. indefinitely into the future at your own peril. Not that things are going to change overnight, but I think those who are planning to cash out of their collections 20-30 years from now are going to be hugely disappointed. There is no way that the Millennials, in the aggregate, will have the interest and purchasing power to clear the market at levels where current collectors/investors/speculators think their books will be worth - ZERO chance. As one commentator said on CNBC this morning, the Millennials are the only generation that matters anymore - because that's where all the growth (or contraction) is coming at the margin.

 

If you look out over a long enough timeframe, demography is destiny.

[The-Collector]

Plus, Disney is in the business of monetizing their characters for perpetuity. They will do where re they can to keep Marvel characters front and center in popular culture.

 

It won't matter that kids aren't introduced to them from reading pamphlets as most of us were. How that relates to any of the collecting comic books is the question. I believe that enough will seek out the keys, not runs, to maintain values. But nothing is guaranteed. Lots of credible arguments point to history repeating itself, and that comic books are a paper collectible in an future that appears to not value them as much we did.

 

Part of monetizing characters into perpetuity is recognizing when the public has tired of them and putting them on a shelf for a while. I don't know what is going on nowadays, but I remember when Disney would put some of its classic animation movies/characters on ice for years and bring them back periodically. And, while this was before the Disney takeover, remember when the original Star Wars trilogy was not always in print on VHS or DVD? I have no doubt that the same will happen to superhero franchises as well, and the genre as a whole as well. I mean, it's kind of absurd that they've already rebooted both Spider-Man and Fantastic Four in such a short period of time (and reaction to the new Spidey franchise was decidedly mixed at best). Yes, GOTG proved to be a surprise hit, but will other third and fourth-tier characters enjoy similar success as people inevitably tire of yet another Iron Man movie?

 

Anyway, my belief is that all the Hollywood films have done is energize the existing fan/collector/speculator base as well as brought a number of lapsed fans/collectors/speculators back into the fold. I don't see a lot of people throwing down real money for comic books that weren't already involved in the hobby at some point before the movies really took off. So, I think it's a huge deal that people aren't getting introduced to the characters and the stories through pamphlets as opposed to other media, even digital comics. It used to be a direct step from buying pamphlets to collecting back issues. Now there is a much larger step or even two or three steps to go from the movies to either digital or paper to back issues (and even farther to become obsessed about condition, slabs, 9.6s vs. 9.8s, etc.)

 

Say what you will about MintCollector, but he's not wrong about the Millennials - this generation is growing up with digital, disposable, shareable, often free content and is simply not as interested as preceding generations were in accumulating stuff, especially not expensive stuff that their parents and grandparents collected. Not to mention, they have, as a group, relatively poor career/financial prospects while much of what they might need/want to buy, from houses on the coasts to AF #15s, is at or near historic highs. No wonder this generation (and likely the one after it) is so into renting, sharing and consuming/experiencing vs. accumulating stuff that they have no room for.

 

Remember, this is the first generation to eschew traditional fast food joints, sugary carbonated beverages, traditional mass-produced beers, etc. as well. The generational shift in the past has been evolutionary; the generational shifts we are seeing now are all sped up in the digital era and are revolutionary - you are seeing trends that were in places for DECADES and assumed to be permanent now reversing. Extrapolate the past trajectory of the popularity of McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Barbie, comic book collecting, etc. indefinitely into the future at your own peril. Not that things are going to change overnight, but I think those who are planning to cash out of their collections 20-30 years from now are going to be hugely disappointed. There is no way that the Millennials, in the aggregate, will have the interest and purchasing power to clear the market at levels where people think their books will be worth - ZERO chance.

 

If you look out over a long enough timeframe, demography is destiny.

 

 

A great post. I always enjoy your considered and knowledgeable responses.

 

I had raised the Batman and Robbin issue earlier and my post seems to have been overlooked. We haven't had the smooth and inexorable march forwards in the comic world that some seem to be suggesting.

[zosocane]

There is no way that the Millennials, in the aggregate, will have the interest and purchasing power to clear the market at levels where people think their books will be worth - ZERO chance.

 

I would not underestimate the future purchasing power of millenials; generally speaking, millennials will wield increased purchasing power as we go into the next decade, particularly as the United States economy continues its evolution as a tech-oriented service economy. I agree, however, that Millennials will generally not have the same level of interest in writing big checks for books. There needs to be opportunity and disposition from new buyers for a market to grow.

[Gatsby77]

One edit to the above -- the reason the original Star Wars trilogy wasn't always in print on VHS/DVD had nothing to do with its popularity; rather, Lucas himself had heavily invested in Laser Disc as a format and for that reason initially refused to release the films on DVD.

[mysterio]

I can even see potential for a day when somewhere on the internet there's a thread about "I can't believe we used to consider that a key just because of that movie!"

 

This. A thousand times, this.