Any books red hot 5-10 years ago that have now fallen?

[Sqeggs]

Westerns were dead when I was a kid in the 80s.

 

But after at least a 50 year run.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

Best post in thread.

I am out of this thread,as I want the thread to go back on-topic.

See you guys in comic book movie sub-forum.

 

[mysterio]

B

Why shouldn't we use 9.8 as a barometer for Bronze?

 

Because the lack of information about the true availability of 9.8 Bronze books artificially overvalued them in the 5-10 year period that the OP references.

 

But why wouldn't that be true for 9.4 as well? Just because they haven't fallen (yet) due to increased pressing and slabbing doesn't mean they won't follow suit as supply inevitably increases.

 

In most cases today's prices are more a reflection of "not yet valuable enough to slab the 9.4s" rather than a true reflection of value.

 

Those who think the 9.2 - 9.4 prices are more stable than the 9.8 prices may be in for a rude awakening five years from now, esp. once the Disney Marvel movie hype has diminished.

I don`t see them diminishing.

Why would they?

Iron Man came out in 2008. Here we are in 2015 and the Marvel movies are bigger then ever!

Think of the Super Bowl. The interest in that never diminishes.

 

The Marvel movies are like events now.

There are three must see movies for me in 2015.

They are all Disney movies.

Avengers, Ant-Man and Star Wars.

I don`t see people getting tired of them, especially when they only make 2 or 3 of them a year.

 

 

I'm not sure the Super Bowl analogy really works here, at least not the way you think it does. The interest in this year's Super Bowl never diminishes, until it is over. How many folks care about last year's Super Bowl, or its merchandise? The event is all about hype, and for many it isn't even about the game itself. How many folks who couldn't care less about football tune in or go to parties? Is that what you'd like for comic films?

 

Bringing up the 2008 Iron Man is also interesting. I doubt very many folks would get that excited about that film anymore. How many TOS #39 sales do you reckon are being driven in 2015 off of that 2008 film? I'd wager that none are. If people are buying books it's because of the next film, not the past one. All of the interest in the comics is being driven by the hype of upcoming films, not the film itself (many of which aren't even due for what, five years in some cases). I love comics, and I'm tiring of the hype. I haven't even gotten around to seeing Winter Soldier yet; not because I don't want to see it, I do, but these films are becoming so ubiquitous lately that, for me at least, they aren't really that special any more. Iron Man and Spider-man were big deal, must see in the theater movies, but that effect is wearing off. Maybe because I'm in my 40s and getting crotchety, but I'm a comic fan who is pretty much over the hype. You don't think that'll happen to others?

 

This may be the first time in history something stays hot forever, but that's pretty unlikely.

I get the feeling that some old time comic book fans want these superhero movies to fail for some strange reason?

That`s my observation.

 

 

Oh goodie, the "disagreement with my incredibly optimistic view means they're a hater" stance.

 

A lot of old time comic fans want these movies to fail.

Why?

Could be many reasons.

Anybody want to fill in the blank for the many reasons?

 

 

 

 

How is anything I said above "wanting them to fail"? How about you address that first?

It wasn`t aimed at you.

It just seems a lot of old timers don`t like the new rock star popularity their comic book heroes have now.

You don`t see and sense this?

It`s like they don`t want mainstream joining their private club.

Constantly if people keep knocking these movies and saying they suck and are stupid, then eventually they will be abandoned by mainstream because mainstream is going to believe them. Once something gets put out there negative it snowballs.

I don`t want that to happen.

GOTG and Captain America: The Winter Soldier were two of the most entertaining movies I saw in 2014.

I want to continue to see great movies like that.

I am kind of sick of people saying those kind of movies are a fad.

It`s getting old.

 

 

 

Now this post moves the conversation forward. Let me elaborate my position.

 

As a fan, it is nice to see good comic book movies that are well written, produced with high quality, and make money. We are definitely in a golden age of comic films.

 

As a comic fan, I'm dismayed to see the inflated prices on movie hyped books. These prices, in my opinion, are completely unsustainable and unwarranted except in the face of spiraling hype and eventually will deflate. I think that this is bad for the hobby long term. This does not color my opinions on the cyclical nature of films, but is informed by my opinion of their cyclical nature (i.e. history tells us that things that are popular can't stay popular forever, and as people and their money cycle out of comic movies the hype propping the books up also leaves).

 

This has nothing to do with a "comics are for the nerds and not the mainstream" sort of mentality. I like that my mother in law knows who Thor is, and the material warrants that level of mainstream recognition. But the fact of the matter is that the mainstream tastes will switch, no matter what anyone posts on any message board. It is just the way of things.

 

So neither I nor anyone else is hating on these films when we say that eventually the mainstream will move on to something else. It is simply a historically demonstrated certainty that this will happen.

[oakman29]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

Best post in thread.

I am out of this thead,as I want the thread to go back on-topic.

See you guys in comic book movie sub-forum.

Why thank you.

 

Seriously,what will kill our hobby is what almost everyone(including me) did in the 90's

Variant this and variant that,speculators(death of Superman anyone).Just have fun with it and leave the investment portfolio to stocks and bonds.

[Jaydogrules]

Superhero films represent a distinct genre, and film historians have documented the way in which film genres progress. That progression is fairly predictable. From http://www.cod.edu/people/faculty/pruter/film/filmtopics.htm:

 

"1.Primitive--During this stage the conventions of the genre are just developing, and the audience has yet to develop set expectations for the genre.

2.Classical--During this stage, the genre is at its peak of popularity, the conventions of the genre receive their fullest expression, and the audience knows what to expect.

3.Parodic--By this stage, the conventions of the genre have become so stale and well-known, that they are laughable and ripe for parody.

4.Revisionist--During this stage, genre films consciously question and/or reverse the established conventions of the classical stage of the genre."

 

I haven't seen Guardians of the Galaxy, but judging from the trailers, which I have seen, I'd say it may qualify as a parody of the genre (just like the comic was in all likelihood intended as a parody of super-hero comics). Kick- probably qualifies, too. As more parodies come along, superhero movies will lose their some of their coolness with the general public.The revisionist phase may keep the genre going strong for a while, but like other film genres such as gangster films and westerns, superhero movies will almost certainly fade at some point.

It wasn`t a parody, but probably the beginning of a new Star Wars type franchise.

It will probably last much longer then the original old school iconic characters because it seems new and fresh.

I don`t think the comic movies will fade.

The Avengers Age of Ultron will break all box office records in May.

Superman vs. Batman will then do another billion the year after.

Think about this.

Tim Burton`s Batman came out in 1989.

Well, here we are 25 plus years later, and superhero movies are stronger then ever.

 

 

 

And Batman and Robin came out in 1997 and killed the momentum of comic films for years. Which of these upcoming films might be this generation's Batman and Robin?

 

Suicide Squad

 

-J.

[Gatsby77]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

 

"Buy what you like" doesn't apply when you're talking about spending $1,000+ on a slabbed Conan # 1, or Star Wars # 1, or "shudder" Nova # 1 or New Mutants 98.

 

Or $30,000+ on a Green Lantern # 76. In 9.6.

 

There are real-world economic consequences for people paying real-world money for books like these right now (or, in the case of GL 76, did)..

 

Particularly when fans can buy almost all of these stories in trade paperback reprints from Amazon for pennies.

[tabcom]

[jimbo_707]

Superhero films represent a distinct genre, and film historians have documented the way in which film genres progress. That progression is fairly predictable. From http://www.cod.edu/people/faculty/pruter/film/filmtopics.htm:

 

"1.Primitive--During this stage the conventions of the genre are just developing, and the audience has yet to develop set expectations for the genre.

2.Classical--During this stage, the genre is at its peak of popularity, the conventions of the genre receive their fullest expression, and the audience knows what to expect.

3.Parodic--By this stage, the conventions of the genre have become so stale and well-known, that they are laughable and ripe for parody.

4.Revisionist--During this stage, genre films consciously question and/or reverse the established conventions of the classical stage of the genre."

 

I haven't seen Guardians of the Galaxy, but judging from the trailers, which I have seen, I'd say it may qualify as a parody of the genre (just like the comic was in all likelihood intended as a parody of super-hero comics). Kick- probably qualifies, too. As more parodies come along, superhero movies will lose their some of their coolness with the general public.The revisionist phase may keep the genre going strong for a while, but like other film genres such as gangster films and westerns, superhero movies will almost certainly fade at some point.

It wasn`t a parody, but probably the beginning of a new Star Wars type franchise.

It will probably last much longer then the original old school iconic characters because it seems new and fresh.

I don`t think the comic movies will fade.

The Avengers Age of Ultron will break all box office records in May.

Superman vs. Batman will then do another billion the year after.

Think about this.

Tim Burton`s Batman came out in 1989.

Well, here we are 25 plus years later, and superhero movies are stronger then ever.

 

 

 

The Tim Burton Batman movies were the very beginning of the modern superhero genre, though. Other than those films, how many superhero movies can you remember from the 90s? They were certainly in the "primitive" phase and didn't really kick-start the classical phase of the genre, which, I would argue, did not begin until the X-Men franchise took off in the early 2000's, which means we're about 15 years in. The classic phase of westerns lasted at least that long, from the early 40s to the mid 50s. Western films (mostly revisionist) have continued to be made, and some of them, like The Outlaw Josey Wales and Dances with Wolves, have been incredibly successful, but the heyday of the western has passed. So it's not that superhero films will fade altogether, it's that they won't get the attention they do now because they'll become a little passé.

 

[Sqeggs]

The classic phase of westerns lasted at least that long, from the early 40s to the mid 50s. Western films (mostly revisionist) have continued to be made, and some of them, like The Outlaw Josey Wales and Dances with Wolves, have been incredibly successful, but the heyday of the western has passed. So it's not that superhero films will fade altogether, it's that they won't get the attention they do now because they'll become a little passé.

 

I would push the classic phase of westerns back further -- into the 1930s. More importantly, though, it's easy to forget just how extraordinarily popular the western genre was through the 1950s and into the 1960s. The best indication would be the large number of TV westerns including several -- Gunsmoke and Bonanza come to mind -- that were at the top of the ratings.

 

To say that the heyday of the western has passed, greatly understates what has happened. Sure there is an occasional western film released -- although the two you mention were released in 1976 and 1990 -- but effectively the genre is now a part of the cultural past. No one would have predicted in 1960 how completely popular culture would turn away from westerns despite their decades of immense popularity. At one time, westerns were woven into popular culture to an extent that is greater than super heroes are today. But it all ended, practically in the blink of an eye.

 

Westerns did have a very long run. Super hero movies will eventually fall by the wayside as well, but who knows when it will be?

[HighStakesComics]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

Best post in thread.

I am out of this thead,as I want the thread to go back on-topic.

See you guys in comic book movie sub-forum.

Why thank you.

 

Seriously,what will kill our hobby is what almost everyone(including me) did in the 90's

Variant this and variant that,speculators(death of Superman anyone).Just have fun with it and leave the investment portfolio to stocks and bonds.

 

Long term this is undoubtably the correct approach to collecting. Just to think that some of these books were $.10 & $.12 off the shelves and then to look at what they fetch right now. It's mind blowing to say the least.

 

But while we are on the subject of comparing the current market, fueled by movie speculation, to the market of the 90's we cannot underestimate that history tends to repeat itself. If that turns out to be the case, there is one conclusion we can logically reach. The same storyline that signaled the apex of the 90's market may very well do the same with the current run of movies. I'm referring to the Infinity Gauntlet, arguably the most memorable storyline of the early 90's and the current focal point of the Marvel movie arc.

 

With 3 infinity gems down and 3 to go, I believe the cinematic conclusion to this storyline may signal the end of the current round of hype and speculation, just as it did a little over 20 years ago.

 

Having said that, Disney is a great company and they could always pull a rabbit out of their hat. DC also has some great heroes and baddies if they can manage to use them properly. I'd love to see some back and forth with a side of oneupsmanship from the competing studios.

 

By using the Infinity Gauntlet barometer and the 90's market as a comparable scenario, we would be somewhere in the bottom of the 4th/top of the 5th inning in terms of speculation. I think there is still plenty of room to run, but the prices on books that have risen substantially, like Hulk 1 and AF 15, may not always continue to do so. The biggest moves might come from some of the laggards, as originally implied by the OP.

 

 

[Heronext]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

[HighStakesComics]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of a steadily appreciating hobby fixed by Overstreet is unnatural; now we have a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term on the boards. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

I agree mostly. All very good points.

[apollobuzz]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

Never thought of it that way before. So if dealers and Overstreet are the axis powers, that would make CGC and GPA the allied powers.

[mysterio]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

Except this is pretty much what happened in the 90s. While most of that speculation was on new product, as you point out, once that bubble burst and the values evaporated plenty of people left the hobby en masse. Otherwise why would the majority of comic shops have gone out of business after the bust. While one can argue that many of those shops opened on the front end of the bubble and were kept open by the speculation, I don't see how one can deny what a cataclysm the bursting of the 90s speculation bubble was.

 

The main difference today is that fewer people are speculating with greater sums of money on Silver and Bronze books that contain first appearances of characters either in the movies or hoped to one day maybe appear in one. After those movies come out, what holds those prices up?

 

Oh, and people have known for a long time that Overstreet prices are fanciful. Not sure what bearing that has on the current speculative bubble, as those prices have nothing to do with what people are spending. At best they are reactive, and poorly so.

[Vikingreed]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

 

Holy moly!

Sound advice!

 

This hobby should only bring one happiness. I do exactly what oakman states above. Buy what I like.

I could care less about random Bronze Age 1st appearances of characters I've never liked/collected.

Just because they get their own movie doesn't change that fact. They are still "that character I never cared about".

 

Just give me my Bronze Age Spidey, Bats, and X-Men, and I will remain happy.

[Vikingreed]

I will add that comics are purely a hobby for me.

 

I do not make my living, or provide for my family, through comics,

 

I can understand that if one did, they could have completely different views on this subject.

[Prince Namor]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

+1

 

Big difference for sure. We probably have the rise of CGC to thank for it.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today?

 

Not a thing... it's the name of the game... but...

 

The people who do it aren't getting any younger, and even they must be thinking long term....

 

They have to question...Is that tomorrow as in Friday and today as in Saturday or tomorrow as in January and today as in February - or tomorrow as in 2014 and today as in 2015 - or tomorrow as in now and today as in 20 years from now? Is it all the same?

 

It seems the people in line to eventually replace the old guard of dealers is a lot of people speculating in the Copper Age.... scary.... is there enough there to support a market when the older one slows down or becomes unaffordable to the majority?

 

The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

There's an awful lot of 55-60 year old collectors... will they be kicking' it hard here in 20 years? There's an awful lot of auctions going on....

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

I agree to a degree, but...

 

The auction houses are manipulated (but I'm glad to have them - love you guys), GPA is incomplete (but I love having it, better than not!), eBay is manipulated (hope you burn in hell), plenty of advanced deconstruction and reconstruction games played on books (play the obstacles folks).... hmmm...

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

More like a fear of almost throwing the industry off the side of a cliff less than 20 years ago.

[fastballspecial]

I think the last 10 years have shown us truly how many high grade copies exist of some of these books. Which is why of course the prices have fallen so dramatically.

 

[mintcollector]

Here's a thought,why don't you guys buy what you like.If it gains value all the better,if it doesn't at least you have something you like?

Why make comics so difficult? It really would take all the fun out of the hobby(for me),to worry about all the the movie hype,investment crazed nonsense.

 

"Buy what you like" doesn't apply when you're talking about spending $1,000+ on a slabbed Conan # 1, or Star Wars # 1, or "shudder" Nova # 1 or New Mutants 98.

 

Or $30,000+ on a Green Lantern # 76. In 9.6.

 

There are real-world economic consequences for people paying real-world money for books like these right now (or, in the case of GL 76, did)..

 

Particularly when fans can buy almost all of these stories in trade paperback reprints from Amazon for pennies.

 

Thank you Gatsby. For once we are in perfect agreement.

[mintcollector]

People keep confusing 90s speculation in new-to-shelf comics the collapse of which harmed comic shops, and speculation in vintage comics as an investment strategy.

 

Regarding the second, those who do it well will make money, those who do it poorly will not. What is wrong with figuring out what will be popular tomorrow so you can buy it cheaper today? The idea that hordes of collectors holding tons of vintage paper they overpaid for will leave the hobby and depress prices is hooey.

 

If anything the illusion of steadily appreciating values fixed by the dealer-Overstreet axis is unnatural; now we have something closer to a true free market.

 

"Speculation" is the most overused term in the hobby. Usually it's a throwaway curse to mask fear of change.

 

Incorrect. Look at how many people already left the hobby and these forums just because they couldn't win at the 'crack, press and resubmit' game. Speculation isn't of itself necessarily bad. Speculators are. Anyone with an advanced degree in business or finance would not be speculating in common mass produced items; myself included, at least not for profit. For love of some of the said items; yes.

 

The problem occurs when these individuals forgo other stable investments in order to do this. I am sorry but right now that Nintendo Amiibo you bought may seem to be 'rare', but in reality close to six million have been sold. These will be worth very little in the future much like most modern day comic books. Since the Walking Dead premiered how many other valuable modern age books have slipped through the grasp of the comic market? Is it really worth spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars attempting to find the next great hit? To me that is work, but then again I have a degree in business and can easily make money in any financial climate. Sometimes I have to wonder how the mind of the speculator thinks. Do these people really think that twenty to thirty years from now they will have the same priorities and interests and just happen to remember where that box of toys they bought was in hopes those items went up in value? That is really quite funny. Even at the age of 38 I can tell you your interests are bound to change and as you get older time seems to move faster and faster. I don't have too many thirty year spans left, do you?