Mass Delusion and Comic Collecting?

[kav]

Puny interest rates!!

[The-Collector]

When something is made to be collectible it always crashes. GA and SA comics are a different story.

 

I agree entirely. I just hope that the areas that are over hyped do not destroy these legitimate markets if they crash and burn.

[The-Collector]

As long as platinum savings accounts are yielding .02%, people will continue to buy comics, stocks, records, concert posters, coins, pretty much anything that doesn't require 360,000 years to double your money. Will it end well? Who knows, but do you have any better ideas on where to park part of your money? I look at Nasdaq 5000 and remember what happened the last time we got there and 10 year bonds at 1.9% are about as exciting as rubbing one off to a Readers Digest. International stocks look enticing but Europe keeps chasing good money after bad in Greece and oh so many foreign countries are dependent on higher oil prices.

 

Compared to some of this stuff blue-chip Golden Age Timely's look cheap.

 

 

My traditional investments have been doing pretty well for the last four years

 

10 year bonds are only 1.9%? What a rip off. I'm getting about that as a yearly dividend from my S&P index (and it's up on the year as well). And if Nasdaq at 5000 worries you (with a P/E ratio of about 22) how must comics at all time highs worry you (with a P/E ratio of ∞?).

 

This Time It's Different™

 

Comics aren't comparable to equities. One is basically an entitlement to future cash flows and the other is based only on demand for these items.The value of a collectable is whatever price someone is willing to pay for it and may be subject to trends, fashions. Since a security represents a claim over the assets of a firm, its value is therefore linked to the value of the assets and the profitability of the firm. PE ratios have no meaning in the collectible world.

[shadroch]

When stocks were at 13,000 ,they were at their all-time high and not a good investment

Then they went to 14,000 and weren't a good investment.

Soon they were at 17,000 but everyone knows you don't buy at the all-time high.

Now they are at 18,000 and it's still not time to get in the game.

That about the gist of it?

 

By the way, I recall a discussion in one of my classes in High School, circa 1974 or so about if the Dow would ever break 1000. Conventional wisdom was no.

[thehumantorch]

When stocks were at 13,000 ,they were at their all-time high and not a good investment

Then they went to 14,000 and weren't a good investment.

Soon they were at 17,000 but everyone knows you don't buy at the all-time high.

Now they are at 18,000 and it's still not time to get in the game.

That about the gist of it?

 

By the way, I recall a discussion in one of my classes in High School, circa 1974 or so about if the Dow would ever break 1000. Conventional wisdom was no.

 

I love my comics but as an investment I consider a portfolio of well picked stocks to be a far safer and profitable investment. But to each their own, choose wisely my friends.

[kav]

When cab drivers are talking about stocks-time to sell.

[HighStakesComics]

When stocks were at 13,000 ,they were at their all-time high and not a good investment

Then they went to 14,000 and weren't a good investment.

Soon they were at 17,000 but everyone knows you don't buy at the all-time high.

Now they are at 18,000 and it's still not time to get in the game.

That about the gist of it?

 

By the way, I recall a discussion in one of my classes in High School, circa 1974 or so about if the Dow would ever break 1000. Conventional wisdom was no.

 

But the last time the Nasdaq hit 5000.......

 

Look, I own stocks and I own comics. I'm not looking to move money out of one and into another. All I'm saying is a lot of stuff looks expensive. It's probably expensive because saving your money in a bank is the equivalent of stashing it in a mattress, FDIC insurance aside. Im talking new money, say anywhere from $10k-$1,000,000. Would you feel confident putting it all in the market or bonds right now? I mentioned before international stocks look at bit cheaper and the dividends are .75% or so higher. Ultimately, I believe it's a stock and a comic pickers market. The easy money has been made in both. I don't think you can blindly fire in on SA keys or index funds and expect 15%+ anymore. Some tactical, well timed purchases in either market might still do better than that, however.

[namisgr]

With a long-term horizon and dollar-cost averaging (investing a fixed amount of money on a regular basis over time), investing in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds has performed exceedingly well over the past 80 years.

 

Comics, on the other hand, are a fun hobby.

 

As for the notion mentioned earlier that the bank account will go away as an investment vehicle, such a notion fails to take into consideration that no-risk instant-liquidity government-insured cash has a place in everyone's portfolio.

[Jeffro.]

I thought comic collecting,and delusional go hand in hand.

 

No, that's message board posting

[Jeffro.]

Please I beg of everyone,,, do not commit financial suicide by slabbing moderns

 

While I agree it is a crazy, speculator heavy modern comic market... I completely disagree with this sort of thinking.

 

Slab what you want - I have many slabbed moderns. Not because I think they're worth something, but because I love them.

 

The argument could even be made for slabbing moderns for financial purposes... some people make a great deal of money doing so.

 

Can't you love them in their raw state?

[Jeffro.]

[quote=

 

Is this that show that has people on who are convinced Lizard People are secretly ruling the world?

 

Yup thats the show. Used to be hosted by Art Bell who was always afraid that the government was after him and the UFO's were watching him. He used to broadcast from an unknown location in the desert. Very cool show to listen to , More serious show since Bell left and Noory took over. been a listener for 20+ years. . One night its about US -Soviet relations and another its about alien abductions then the next night its about crop circles and time travel.

 

I'll take care of the lizard men. Hold on, let me get my dice and my PH

 

 

[Vikingreed]

10% of all Ebay sales during this time were Beanie Baby related!

That is crazy...

[comicwiz]

Pockets of the comic market definitely seem like this. Hopefully any eventual crash doesn't destroy the wider more mature market for established keys.

 

While I do agree that the "fad" aspect of the Beanie Babies boom/bust resembles the rapid, explosive price increases happening around movie news/announcements and anticipation of character appearances, it does not speak to the health of the rest of the market. The Beanie Babies are often brought into discussions in a market experiencing a hype cycle (this applies also to the ridiculous money being thrown around on new books being slabbed seconds after they're signed or pulled off the rack), and it's really a better suited example with what happened in the sports cards and comic markets in the 90's with the hologram/holo-foil manufactured variant lunacy.

 

There is nothing nostalgic about the Beanie Babies, and the only people buying/selling them were dealers/speculators looking to get rich quick. No one bought them because they reminded them of their childhood, or because they got hooked after reading a story, playing a video game or watching a movie. Anyone that has collected anything old, whether it be coins, cards, comics or toys knows how to spot "fads" in collecting, and it's a bit intellectually and contextually lazy to bring up Beanie Babies in a discussion about the health of the current or back-issue comic hobby.

[Quicksilver Signs]

When something is made to be collectible it always crashes. GA and SA comics are a different story.

I don't think GA and SA are completely immune.

That "in grade" element is the zero-double-zero of the roulette wheel. Know what I mean?

 

A book is as common as table salt below _fill in blank_, but OMG just try and find one at _fill in blank_ or above! You just can't!! (well, you probably can actually, with lots and lots of moola to light your way)

 

Hello SW 1, Nova 1 Ms Marvel 1, She-Hulk .......

[Firespitter]

But you have to agree that a large part of the comic book bubble is speculators and hipster "I'm cool cause I got the first appearance on my wall" wannabe nerds that have hyper-inflated the market. When the coolness factor wears off and ironic T-shirt investments take-off again, it could cause a collapse, but wishfully I believe it will just be a slow deflation.

 

Many of the so called "collectors" aren't old enough to have read a 1950's/60

s comic book to feel nostalgic about it. And many are trying to do the speculative investment/flip.

 

Some keys will maintain their value and continue to increase. First appearances of Quilt man, will hopefully fade.

 

-Terry

 

[Sqeggs]

As long as platinum savings accounts are yielding .02%, people will continue to buy comics, stocks, records, concert posters, coins, pretty much anything that doesn't require 360,000 years to double your money. Will it end well? Who knows, but do you have any better ideas on where to park part of your money? I look at Nasdaq 5000 and remember what happened the last time we got there and 10 year bonds at 1.9% are about as exciting as rubbing one off to a Readers Digest. International stocks look enticing but Europe keeps chasing good money after bad in Greece and oh so many foreign countries are dependent on higher oil prices.

 

Compared to some of this stuff blue-chip Golden Age Timely's look cheap.

 

 

My traditional investments have been doing pretty well for the last four years

 

Makes two of us but I prefer to look through the windshield and not the rear view mirror. If our economy is growing 1-1-5% and our markets are yielding 15%, something has to give. I don't think that something is GSX #1.

 

Actually more like 2%-2.5%. But over the long run the return on equities is always higher than the growth rate of the economy. The ins and outs of r > g have been hashed out at great length in the discussion of Piketty's book.

 

That said, the stock market looks pretty toppy to me as well.

 

With respect to beanies, I picked up the book a couple of days ago and it's a fascinating read. The early Internet played a particularly interesting role in fueling the mania. The ty.com web site was set up for the company by a college student working part time for the company -- a sociology major, no less. Apparently a pretty substantial part of eBay's listings in those days was beanie babies. If accurate, the book seems to show that Ty Warner sleepwalked his way to becoming a billionaire.

 

[jaeldubyoo]

Variants

[skypinkblu]

As long as platinum savings accounts are yielding .02%, people will continue to buy comics, stocks, records, concert posters, coins, pretty much anything that doesn't require 360,000 years to double your money. Will it end well? Who knows, but do you have any better ideas on where to park part of your money? I look at Nasdaq 5000 and remember what happened the last time we got there and 10 year bonds at 1.9% are about as exciting as rubbing one off to a Readers Digest. International stocks look enticing but Europe keeps chasing good money after bad in Greece and oh so many foreign countries are dependent on higher oil prices.

 

Compared to some of this stuff blue-chip Golden Age Timely's look cheap.

 

 

My traditional investments have been doing pretty well for the last four years

 

Makes two of us but I prefer to look through the windshield and not the rear view mirror. If our economy is growing 1-1-5% and our markets are yielding 15%, something has to give. I don't think that something is GSX #1.

 

Actually more like 2%-2.5%. But over the long run the return on equities is always higher than the growth rate of the economy. The ins and outs of r > g have been hashed out at great length in the discussion of Piketty's book.

 

That said, the stock market looks pretty toppy to me as well.

 

With respect to beanies, I picked up the book a couple of days ago and it's a fascinating read. The early Internet played a particularly interesting role in fueling the mania. The ty.com web site was set up for the company by a college student working part time for the company -- a sociology major, no less. Apparently a pretty substantial part of eBay's listings in those days was beanie babies. If accurate, the book seems to show that Ty Warner sleepwalked his way to becoming a billionaire.

 

 

Rumor at the time was that he was shill bidding the auctions. He promoted them surreptitiously on AOL. I do remember that...people would sign on and talk about the different tags and generations and how rare they were...then the plastic tag protectors were made a big deal. The whole tag generation tag thing and the protectors appeared to be company driven.

 

He didn't sleepwalk, he took advantage of a new medium. He was brilliant.

 

My daughter would ask me to please cut the tags off when she got one;)

[Hamlet]

You can get 0.9% online at American Express. Give how low inflation is, the real rate you are getting with that isn't dramatically different from the past. The real rate has always been pretty close to zero after inflation (maybe 0-1% real is normal). Now it is slightly negative instead of slightly positive.

 

No one has ever done well investing in savings accounts. It just looked better to them when they were getting 5% interest while inflation was 5%. They were still losing purchasing power after taxes, they just didn't understand that.

 

Rule of 72 my man. Divide your rate of return into 72 and that's how long your money will take to double roughly. 6% interest takes about 12 years to double; 72/6=12. 72/.002%=360,000. It's a bit of an exaggeration but not by much. The old, trusty savings account is not long for this Earth.

[Davenport]

10% of all Ebay sales during this time were Beanie Baby related!

That is crazy...

Wow, someone actually listened to the link.

 

What about him going to prison to interview a guy who murdered someone over beanie babies? I thought that was crazy. The killer had no idea if they were still hot or not.