Mass Delusion and Comic Collecting?

[mysterio]

Listening to a snippet of this last night I thought, 'Holy , he could be talking about today's comic collecting'.

Begins at minute-mark 12:50 and ends at 32:00 minutes.

 

It's an author discussing a new book The Great Beanie Baby Bubble: Mass Delusion and the Dark Side of Cute. The stories are insane and a lot of the elements that make up a 'speculative craze' are undeniably present with today's comic books.

Well worth the time to take a listen, a quick 'school of hard knocks' in depth eye-opener. Really good stuff.

 

I heard this guy (Beanie Babies) in a radio interview and it's really interesting stuff. I ALMOST bought the book

 

In seriousness, the Beanie Baby craze and crash was due to - in part - misinformation, scarcity, and then manufactured scarcity. As others have said, the Internet is a game changer (I had that phrase) when it comes to collectibles.

 

I did go out and buy the book. Looking forward to starting it in a bit.

[lizards2]

 

The Lizard people are still around and they they still come.

 

[jcjames]

Pockets of the comic market definitely seem like this. Hopefully any eventual crash doesn't destroy the wider more mature market for established keys.

The elements of a "speculative craze" that jumped out at me were:

 

*Media hype (comic book movies on fire, he-got-rich articles, new tv shows, etc.)

*Manipulated Scarcity (dozens of variant covers, commons rare if "in grade" applied, etc.)

*A focus on future-wealth by acquiring newly produced items (latest hot item breakouts and chase, etc.)

 

To point out a few. And I don't think I'm imagining those things. They're going on, full throttle.

No, it's different this time.

 

 

What I think might be different now is what the internet has evolved into.

Beanie Babies were a huge nationwide phenomenon involving McDonalds, Ebay, retail stores, and so on. Today the internet's small niches and factions can group-delude and group-support, keeping things in play for a longer haul.

I don't know if I'm saying that right, but I know what I mean. Tribes vs Societies, different dynamics to maintain a craze?

 

From the interview:

"...everyone thought they would be going up in value which guaranteed they wouldn't because too many were preserved in mint condition"

The bubble doesn't have to be a nationwide bubble to fall victim to that same principle.

 

However, having said that - EVERYTHING can fall victim to the "speculation bubble" phenomenon because NOTHING has intrinsic value. Coins, real estate, oil, sports cars, art, comics, stocks, even gold... nothing has any value OTHER than what the "masses" decide is valuable.

 

 

 

[nixnix]

Listening to a snippet of this last night I thought, 'Holy , he could be talking about today's comic collecting'.

Begins at minute-mark 12:50 and ends at 32:00 minutes.

 

It's an author discussing a new book The Great Beanie Baby Bubble: Mass Delusion and the Dark Side of Cute. The stories are insane and a lot of the elements that make up a 'speculative craze' are undeniably present with today's comic books.

Well worth the time to take a listen, a quick 'school of hard knocks' in depth eye-opener. Really good stuff.

 

I heard this guy (Beanie Babies) in a radio interview and it's really interesting stuff. I ALMOST bought the book

 

In seriousness, the Beanie Baby craze and crash was due to - in part - misinformation, scarcity, and then manufactured scarcity. As others have said, the Internet is a game changer (I had that phrase) when it comes to collectibles.

 

 

Part of the decline was the decision to "retire" the whole line of Beanies at that time.

I believe it was in Dec. sometime around 1999. He told everyone that was the end of the line. Everyone thought he would come out with a new line beanies within a month or two (speculation), and all the retired ones would go up in value (again speculation). Then he had a 50 cents per vote to see if the Beanies should be brought back, the money was donated to a pediatric foundation.

 

The months go buy and no new Beanies, then 6 months later he announces a new line of Beanies coming. Well, he screwed up by waiting so long, people came to their senses and noticed they had more money in their pockets and basically lost interest.

 

If he would of introduced a new line with in a month or two it would have kept the craze going for a little while longer. Good friend of mine had a gift store in the Mall and he sold Beanies.

 

I used to go hang out on Saturdays and help him out. You would see and hear all the buzz about the Beanies first hand. People were so obsessed they would go as far as fighting and screaming over the new Beanies that came in.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I just ordered the book from Amazon because of this thread.

I love reading about bubbles, especially about hobby bubbles that popped.

Hopefully what I read from the book will be used to compare to the comics bubble we`re in currently with certain comics.

 

[Davenport]

I did go out and buy the book. Looking forward to starting it in a bit.

I just ordered the book from Amazon because of this thread.

I love reading about bubbles, especially about hobby bubbles that popped.

Hopefully what I read from the book will be used to compare to the comics bubble we`re in currently with certain comics.

Man, I hope you guys weigh back in after reading it, and how it relates.

 

During the C2C interview he was asked about his next project and had no idea. The host pointed out it would have to top the high bar he set with the Beanie Baby book. I was screaming in my mind, "COMICS! Do COMICS, man!!"

 

Seriously, someone should point Zac Bissonnette at Comic Collecting. The auction houses, encapsulation, variants, all of it. The timing is perfect with all the Hollywood focus. And reading that Forbes article gives a sense that Halperin is probably just as interesting a character as Ty Warner was, if someone would drill down into that story. Hell, he'd find more interesting characters than he would know what to do with.

 

Just typing that got me hyped again. COMICS!, yes COMICS should be his next project. The perfect follow up project for the guy. Someone please TELL HIM!

 

[Tiger Topher]

I, too, ordered the book because of this thread. Amazon and the author should send Davenport a cut of their profits.

[RockMyAmadeus]

If the Beanie Babies book interests anyone, I highly recommend this as well:

 

 

It relates heavily to the bubble of the 1990's.

[thehumantorch]

If the Beanie Babies book interests anyone, I highly recommend this as well:

 

 

It relates heavily to the bubble of the 1990's.

 

Easily my favorite comic related book.

[Davenport]

I, too, ordered the book because of this thread. Amazon and the author should send Davenport a cut of their profits.

Shoot, someone getting large spreads in the Wall Street Journal and other major outlets doesn't need a chatboard thread.

 

I was shocked at how young the guy looks to already have multiple financial bestsellers under his belt. Or maybe I'm just an ageist and shouldn't be shocked at all.

 

[VintageComics]

Pockets of the comic market definitely seem like this. Hopefully any eventual crash doesn't destroy the wider more mature market for established keys.

 

While I do agree that the "fad" aspect of the Beanie Babies boom/bust resembles the rapid, explosive price increases happening around movie news/announcements and anticipation of character appearances, it does not speak to the health of the rest of the market. The Beanie Babies are often brought into discussions in a market experiencing a hype cycle (this applies also to the ridiculous money being thrown around on new books being slabbed seconds after they're signed or pulled off the rack), and it's really a better suited example with what happened in the sports cards and comic markets in the 90's with the hologram/holo-foil manufactured variant lunacy.

 

There is nothing nostalgic about the Beanie Babies, and the only people buying/selling them were dealers/speculators looking to get rich quick. No one bought them because they reminded them of their childhood, or because they got hooked after reading a story, playing a video game or watching a movie. Anyone that has collected anything old, whether it be coins, cards, comics or toys knows how to spot "fads" in collecting, and it's a bit intellectually and contextually lazy to bring up Beanie Babies in a discussion about the health of the current or back-issue comic hobby.

 

I agree with CW. (thumbs u

[Davenport]

Pockets of the comic market definitely seem like this. Hopefully any eventual crash doesn't destroy the wider more mature market for established keys.

 

While I do agree that the "fad" aspect of the Beanie Babies boom/bust resembles the rapid, explosive price increases happening around movie news/announcements and anticipation of character appearances, it does not speak to the health of the rest of the market. The Beanie Babies are often brought into discussions in a market experiencing a hype cycle (this applies also to the ridiculous money being thrown around on new books being slabbed seconds after they're signed or pulled off the rack), and it's really a better suited example with what happened in the sports cards and comic markets in the 90's with the hologram/holo-foil manufactured variant lunacy.

 

There is nothing nostalgic about the Beanie Babies, and the only people buying/selling them were dealers/speculators looking to get rich quick. No one bought them because they reminded them of their childhood, or because they got hooked after reading a story, playing a video game or watching a movie. Anyone that has collected anything old, whether it be coins, cards, comics or toys knows how to spot "fads" in collecting, and it's a bit intellectually and contextually lazy to bring up Beanie Babies in a discussion about the health of the current or back-issue comic hobby.

 

I agree with CW. (thumbs u

I believe he's incorrect about "the only people buying/selling them were dealers/speculators looking to get rich quick" and so on. I think Beanies tapped right into the Mother-Daughter market before there was one, or right about the time it was solidifying into a mall-worthy niche for authors, films, Potter, Twilight and other phenomenon.

 

Part of the Beanie craze was the "shared" hunt. Even at the end of C2C show, the "call-in" part, there were comments about "how much fun" was had by women and their daughters building memories together, no matter how it fell apart in the end. So, you know, if people "had fun" and didn't lose their heads and drain their resources, it wasn't all bad. Like "vacation money", spent on purpose, had fun, memories linger.

[Darkowl]

I did go out and buy the book. Looking forward to starting it in a bit.

I just ordered the book from Amazon because of this thread.

I love reading about bubbles, especially about hobby bubbles that popped.

Hopefully what I read from the book will be used to compare to the comics bubble we`re in currently with certain comics.

Man, I hope you guys weigh back in after reading it, and how it relates.

 

During the C2C interview he was asked about his next project and had no idea. The host pointed out it would have to top the high bar he set with the Beanie Baby book. I was screaming in my mind, "COMICS! Do COMICS, man!!"

 

Seriously, someone should point Zac Bissonnette at Comic Collecting. The auction houses, encapsulation, variants, all of it. The timing is perfect with all the Hollywood focus. And reading that Forbes article gives a sense that Halperin is probably just as interesting a character as Ty Warner was, if someone would drill down into that story. Hell, he'd find more interesting characters than he would know what to do with.

 

Just typing that got me hyped again. COMICS!, yes COMICS should be his next project. The perfect follow up project for the guy. Someone please TELL HIM!

 

Thanks for sharing that link Davenport. I think it gave some really good insight into the short lived Beanie Baby industry, and the fall thereof.

 

If this guys next project was based on comic books, do you think It might give people who aren't familiar with them the false impression that comic books are a bad idea (as far as "investing" goes) in their entirety?

[Hamlet]

This would be supported by the fact that there is a brisk trade in Beanie Babies on E-bay to this day. Lots of people are still buying and selling these things. The price point is much more reasonable though.

 

I believe he's incorrect about "the only people buying/selling them were dealers/speculators looking to get rich quick" and so on. I think Beanies tapped right into the Mother-Daughter market before there was one, or right about the time it was solidifying into a mall-worthy niche for authors, films, Potter, Twilight and other phenomenon.

 

Part of the Beanie craze was the "shared" hunt. Even at the end of C2C show, the "call-in" part, there were comments about "how much fun" was had by women and their daughters building memories together, no matter how it fell apart in the end. So, you know, if people "had fun" and didn't lose their heads and drain their resources, it wasn't all bad. Like "vacation money", spent on purpose, had fun, memories linger.

[wombat]

Looks like you can get some for about 50 cents a pop. May have to get a few for the kids.

[Guardian Comics]

One thing that I find interesting is that there still appears to be tons of E-bay sales of beanie babies, albeit at very low prices.

 

Lots of people are still buying and selling these things. A few of them even appear to still actually have some significant ($100+) value.

 

I just did a quick search of sold beanies just to see where the market is currently at (I remember the market well before the crash) and I was shocked to see how well the the first three generations of tags heave held their value if not increased from the pre crash days. Many sales over $500-$1,000 for individual beanies still. Just goes to show that the genuinely scarce/rare will always have some sort of value to somebody. It was the 4th generation and on that the craze started and the speculating began.

 

Good to know if I ever see anybody selling Magenta or Royal for a $1.00 thinking they are worthless, cuz they aren't.

 

Jim

[Davenport]

Thanks for sharing that link Davenport. I think it gave some really good insight into the short lived Beanie Baby industry, and the fall thereof.

 

If this guys next project was based on comic books, do you think It might give people who aren't familiar with them the false impression that comic books are a bad idea (as far as "investing" goes) in their entirety?

No, not in their entirety. But I think the recent evolutions of the last decade+ would be infinitely interesting reading.

 

Chapter one would be the coin grading scandals of 1989/90, the money involved, the players, the fines and all that. Right up to the coin-model being ported over to comic books.

 

Then it would just get crazy. The massive amounts of money thrown at encapsulated comics when they first appeared, who the players were, their fall, the snail-paced roll out and reveals, the uproars and great debates, crazy disbarred lawyers, crazy x-acto knife wielders, gigantic windfalls, widespread acceptance, variants, movies, tv, conventions, and the new professions to come out of it.

 

It would be an EPIC read. If the right author sunk his teeth into it and led the reader down the rabbit hole step by step. Laid it all out in investigative detail. Epic read, for sure.

 

 

[Darkowl]

(thumbs u

[Davenport]

(thumbs u

Yup, there'd be enough bizarre characters, shifty scoundrels and financial roller-coasters there to make that dark-side of Beanies seem like the sunny side of Delusions Street.

 

[Sqeggs]

As long as platinum savings accounts are yielding .02%, people will continue to buy comics, stocks, records, concert posters, coins, pretty much anything that doesn't require 360,000 years to double your money. Will it end well? Who knows, but do you have any better ideas on where to park part of your money? I look at Nasdaq 5000 and remember what happened the last time we got there and 10 year bonds at 1.9% are about as exciting as rubbing one off to a Readers Digest. International stocks look enticing but Europe keeps chasing good money after bad in Greece and oh so many foreign countries are dependent on higher oil prices.

 

Compared to some of this stuff blue-chip Golden Age Timely's look cheap.

 

 

My traditional investments have been doing pretty well for the last four years

 

Makes two of us but I prefer to look through the windshield and not the rear view mirror. If our economy is growing 1-1-5% and our markets are yielding 15%, something has to give. I don't think that something is GSX #1.

 

Actually more like 2%-2.5%. But over the long run the return on equities is always higher than the growth rate of the economy. The ins and outs of r > g have been hashed out at great length in the discussion of Piketty's book.

 

That said, the stock market looks pretty toppy to me as well.

 

With respect to beanies, I picked up the book a couple of days ago and it's a fascinating read. The early Internet played a particularly interesting role in fueling the mania. The ty.com web site was set up for the company by a college student working part time for the company -- a sociology major, no less. Apparently a pretty substantial part of eBay's listings in those days was beanie babies. If accurate, the book seems to show that Ty Warner sleepwalked his way to becoming a billionaire.

 

 

Rumor at the time was that he was shill bidding the auctions. He promoted them surreptitiously on AOL. I do remember that...people would sign on and talk about the different tags and generations and how rare they were...then the plastic tag protectors were made a big deal. The whole tag generation tag thing and the protectors appeared to be company driven.

 

He didn't sleepwalk, he took advantage of a new medium. He was brilliant.

 

My daughter would ask me to please cut the tags off when she got one;)

 

According to the book, you're wrong about this part. He didn't want to start a Web site and he gave it to the part-time college student to run. Most of the stuff on there was generated by the student and her brother with little or no input from Warner. He apparently didn't have anything to do with eBay or have much interest in it; that was driven by early collector/speculators. According to the book, he was actually hostile to the speculation because he thought it would damage the long-run popularity of beanies. So, no he wasn't brilliantly taking advantage of a new medium, he just was fortunate that the new medium gave a turbocharge to the speculation.

 

He didn't even initially think of retiring pieces as a way to spur collectibility. At first beanies weren't selling very well and he stopped making old ones and started making new ones in the hopes of hitting on ones that might be more popular. It was the early collectors trying to accumulate complete sets that started the price escalation for retired beanies.