Valiant first appearances (quick version for beginners) Now with pictures! 2 2

[Illustrious]

I just looked up recent sales of Harbinger #1 in 9.8, I was actually shocked at the upswing:

 

[Bosco685]

X-O 4 is quietly becoming one of the top 5 valiant keys to get right now. Anyone want to do a top 10 ranking of valiant keys to have in cgc 9.8?

 

I wont' dare start as I am sure someone would throw out my EW5 from the list

 

Just go buy all three so you collect them as a combined 1st appearance set. I did + one.

 

 

CGC even kept them consistent.

 

 

This is something we can all agree on.

 

[AshKenziePaul]

I just looked up recent sales of Harbinger #1 in 9.8, I was actually shocked at the upswing:

 

 

WHHOOOOAAA!!! So the guy who nabbed all the 9.8s @ $350 ended up being a genius..... Son of a Bia......

If you'd have told me two months ago that all this would happen, I'd have asked for a rip off of what you were smoking.

I really hope this isn't all just hype that dies out, because I'd LOVE to see Valiant finally reclaim all of the respect and admiration that it lost.

 

So at this point.....the question is, what's the next book to go ape shart like this one??

[Bosco685]

So at this point.....the question is, what's the next book to go ape shart like this one??

 

I believe Solar 10 first printing in 9.8 is tougher than most any of the Valiant books. That black cover can easily scratch, and there were corner imperfections right from the release of the book that showed up white due to paper breaks.

 

 

[AshKenziePaul]

So at this point.....the question is, what's the next book to go ape shart like this one??

 

I believe Solar 10 first printing in 9.8 is tougher than most any of the Valiant books. That black cover can easily scratch, and there were corner imperfections right from the release of the book that showed up white due to paper breaks.

 

 

 

I hadn't compared grading on these two.... good call!

First EW definitely should count for a lot if you ask me anyhow.

 

Alright, high grade Solar 10 is the hunt now then.

[Bosco685]

Alright, high grade Solar 10 is the hunt now then.

 

Good luck with the hunt. It took me years to track down a sharp 9.8, though over the past few years I found a few raws that are just as nice.

 

But also so many scratched or dented copies too.

 

[AshKenziePaul]

Alright, high grade Solar 10 is the hunt now then.

 

Good luck with the hunt. It took me years to track down a sharp 9.8, though over the past few years I found a few raws that are just as nice.

 

But also so many scratched or dented copies too.

 

 

The scratches are what I've always found. I'm pretty sure I've never held a 9.8 in my hands.

[___]

X-O 4 is quietly becoming one of the top 5 valiant keys to get right now. Anyone want to do a top 10 ranking of valiant keys to have in cgc 9.8?

 

I wont' dare start as I am sure someone would throw out my EW5 from the list

 

Just go buy all three so you collect them as a combined 1st appearance set. I did + one.

 

 

CGC even kept them consistent.

 

 

EW 5 calls signature's or sketches all over it in the gun blast area. Would love to see an SS copy.

Edited March 31, 2015 by 1p36DSA

[___]

Solar 10 is a great book, but outside of hard to find in high grade, I look at importance of the book and nothing is more important to valiant universe than Rai #0. After that A&A and X-O 1 for me. Just to find in high grade there are some low census numbers on other Valiant books. I looked up some of the keys and some only have 50 or so in 9.8. The longer the books sit in long boxes or dollar bins, the less likely they are to get high grade just because of handling, so hopefully we all depleted the high grade books out there over the past 25 years.

[AshKenziePaul]

Solar 10 is a great book, but outside of hard to find in high grade, I look at importance of the book and nothing is more important to valiant universe than Rai #0. After that A&A and X-O 1 for me. Just to find in high grade there are some low census numbers on other Valiant books. I looked up some of the keys and some only have 50 or so in 9.8. The longer the books sit in long boxes or dollar bins, the less likely they are to get high grade just because of handling, so hopefully we all depleted the high grade books out there over the past 25 years.

 

Absolutely!

The quarter/fifty-cent/dollar bins have been very unkind to Valiant over the years and this may come back around to help out those who already own high grade material.

 

[manetteska]

I just looked up recent sales of Harbinger #1 in 9.8, I was actually shocked at the upswing:

 

 

Check out those 2008 prices.

 

And in my very limited in-the-weeds experience, Solar 10 is more difficult to find in the wild in 9.8 condition. Black covers and a cover stock that shows any imperfection; also not easy to press things out.

[valiantman]

I just looked up recent sales of Harbinger #1 in 9.8, I was actually shocked at the upswing:

 

 

Check out those 2008 prices.

 

And in my very limited in-the-weeds experience, Solar 10 is more difficult to find in the wild in 9.8 condition. Black covers and a cover stock that shows any imperfection; also not easy to press things out.

 

At the time of the 2008 prices, there were 12 copies of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 on the census.

 

Combine that with the announcement that the 2007 Harbinger hardcover was the first book produced by the new Valiant Entertainment company, and you had a book that sold for $2,500 (at least twice in 2008).

 

The "invisible hand of the market" definitely compares the price per item to the supply of that item.

Multiplying the number in existence by the cost for a single is a good way to understand the "total market value" of the whole. (Basically, it's market capitalization.)

 

The total market value of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 when the price was $2,500 and there were 12 of them on the census was $30,000 in 2008.

 

Earlier this month, there were 133 copies of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 averaging around $325 per sale.

That's a total market value of about $43,000 for CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 in early 2015.

 

So... the price fell from $2,500 to $325, which looks like it plummeted...

but the "total market value of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1" rose from $30,000 to $43,000 from 2008 to 2015.

 

The announcement that Valiant Entertainment got an investment of $100million+ this month pushed the prices of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 from around $325 to $845 (most recently).

 

The total market value of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 is around $114,000 right now (135 copies times $845), when it was about $43,000 before the announcement.

 

If $114,000 is too high, then the average price for a copy of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 will fall.

If there are a lot more graded in the next few months but the $114,000 stays the same, the average price will fall.

 

If $114,000 is too low for every existing copy of the highest grade of Harbinger #1 from 1992 for the company that just got a $100million+ investment, then there's a good chance the average price could rise above $845.

 

The invisible hand of the market will decide.

 

For comparison, the total market value of every existing copy of CGC 9.8 Amazing Spider-man #300 is about $575,000, not counting another $50,000+ in the value of the CGC 9.9s.

[manetteska]

Nice summary.

[Gatsby77]

Or...the number of 9.8s on the census will double, through a combination of new submissions and pressing, now that the book is worth nearly 3x what it was 3 weeks ago and a whole new generation of collectors who haven't even thought about Valiant in 20 years now decide to submit the books they haven't looked at since 1995.

 

Causing prices (and potentially, your "market cap") to fall after they've been absorbed into the market and people have moved on to the newer TV/movie rumor flavors of the month (believe today's was Hawkgirl).

[FormerReader]

Or...the number of 9.8s on the census will double, through a combination of new submissions and pressing, now that the book is worth nearly 3x what it was 3 weeks ago and a whole new generation of collectors who haven't even thought about Valiant in 20 years now decide to submit the books they haven't looked at since 1995.

 

 

I think that was possibility #1 Valiantman posted. It could very well happen. Or it could go up if demand outpaces supply. Either way it's fun to watch.

 

I wonder what some of the guys who know the issues with paper quality of this book think about pressing opportunities. I thought pressing would increase the likelihood of spine splits?

[Gatsby77]

True.

 

But if you were around and actively chasing Valiants back in 2003-2008, you knew how near-impossible the book was to find in true 9.8. Collectors took notice of the nosebleed prices & now we have 10x+ more on the census, hence the value dropping by nearly 90% in the interim.

 

Now 9.8s are going for 25% of their peak even with 10x copies, with room to grow.

[valiantman]

True --- we could definitely get a lot of new submissions, just like we did after 2008 when the book sold for $2,500.

 

Even with the number of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 going from 12 to 135, and the price falling from $2,500 to $325 each... the total market value still increased.

 

Even if $845 seems like a very inflated price, and the 135 census copies making the total market value $114,000 seems too high, there's always a chance that $845 could still be sustained.

 

CGC 9.8 Preacher #1 averages $650... and there are 288 of them... making the total market value $187,000.

 

Preacher #1 and Harbinger #1 are comparable collectibles, similar ages, both have TV/movie connections, and both have been wildly popular to their SPECIFIC fans for 20+ years.

 

If the total market value of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 was $187,000... like Preacher #1... then each copy of CGC 9.8 Harbinger #1 would be $1,300+.

[Gatsby77]

Interesting, Greg. I haven't thought of specific CGC books in terms of market cap in those terms.

 

That said, I've long thought that in order to truly manipulate the market for a comic book, you only needed 0.1% of its print run. (i.e., for TMNT # 1, only 3 copies; for Spidey 1 Platinum, 10 copies, etc.)

 

For CGC books, it's a bigger percentage but probably smaller number -- (i.e., for Punisher Ltd. # 1 9.8, you'd probably need 1% or 8 copies of the 806 total)

 

Why? Because only a small % of extant copies will be available for sale at any given time.

 

So if only 5% of the copies of Punisher Ltd. # 1 9.8 (i.e., 41 copies) are for sale in a given month and you own 1% of the total run (8 copies) you could drive the price down by flooding the market.

 

Or drive the price up by withholding because your copies are definitionally off the market.

 

You've got asymmetric information because you know you own them & they're not on the market. Other players might pass on the 41 copies for sale in January figuring they'd get another shot in February, since there's a total population of 806. But you know there's really only 798 possible, as you hold the other 8.

 

All of this is to say...how many copies of Unity 0 Red do you own? And how many Magnus 5s?

[CKB]

I find it impossible to believe that the often forecasted and never-occurring H1 census explosion is finally here.

 

I think you will find me predicting ~10 years ago on the Valiant boards that it would take years and years to see 9.8 census numbers on the order of 100. This was based on having hundreds of copies pass though my hands since 1992 and my early experiences with CGC grading.

 

I predict a steady growth of census numbers despite the price increase. It will take years to get to 200. I also believe a not insignificant factor in the growth we have already seen is evolving/devolving standards at CGC. They have gone through lenient periods.

 

Once thing that may drive a bit more 9.8 growth is the increased slabbing of sub 9.8 copies. This has been a easy way for those playing the CPR game to manufacture 9.8s. Many common defects with H1 are not press-able, but on the other hand these common defects don't usually make it to 9.6 either.

 

 

[manetteska]

What are some of these common defects on H 1 to look out for -- apart from the usual things to look for on any book to sub?

Edited March 31, 2015 by manetteska