Valiant first appearances (quick version for beginners) Now with pictures! 2 2

[___]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

[FormerReader]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

 

Per the Valiantfans website.

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h14

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h15

 

I don't see Livewire anywhere in #14 though. Stronghold is on two panels on the last page.

Edited April 2, 2015 by FormerReader

[RockMyAmadeus]

Somewhere along the line CGC eased up on grading Harbinger #1 and 9.8's started popping up a lot more. At the same time this happened the price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically, which made slabbing all the high grade copies sitting in collections not a priority anymore.

 

This isn't true, and here's why:

 

The very reason that price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically was precisely because 9.8s started popping up a lot more. The exact opposite is true: people rushed to have them slabbed to beat the market to the bottom.

 

And, as I said before, "$300 for a 1992 book" (which no other regular issue book can claim, by the way...Harby #1 is, hands down, the most valuable regular book of 1992), is still plenty of incentive to slab.

 

It's not like this book was thrown away back in 1992. This was a huge book within the first year it came out. The copies are out there regardless of the print run.

 

What copies? 9.8s?

 

I feel there will be an influx of high grade copies available of all the early Valiant keys shortly, especially once they give us details on just what exact properties will be coming to the big screen.

 

There already has been an influx of high grade copies of all the early Valiant keys...it happened in 2008/2009.

 

We will creep along in dribs and drabs at this point...there will be no more "doubling the census in a couple of months" for books like Harby #1, Solar #10, etc.

 

By the way...I sold a Harby #1 for $720 cash tonight. First 9.8 Harby #1 I have sold in two years. Around 2012, I had a couple of offers of $450, $475 for a copy, and I held out. My price was $500. I turned down multiple offers, and those people eventually ended up buying their copies for less than they offered me. I considered that I might have made a mistake turning down that money, but I was ok with it, because I literally have the cost of slabbing and about $10 each into these books. If I never got the price I wanted, I was ok with keeping them forever and never selling, even if they (especially if they) ended up at $50 in 9.8.

 

It took several years, but I finally got what I wanted, and then some.

 

I'm happy, buyer's happy, win. I'm glad I didn't settle.

[Broke as a Joke]

Somewhere along the line CGC eased up on grading Harbinger #1 and 9.8's started popping up a lot more. At the same time this happened the price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically, which made slabbing all the high grade copies sitting in collections not a priority anymore.

 

This isn't true, and here's why:

 

The very reason that price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically was precisely because 9.8s started popping up a lot more. The exact opposite is true: people rushed to have them slabbed to beat the market to the bottom.

 

And, as I said before, "$300 for a 1992 book" (which no other regular issue book can claim, by the way...Harby #1 is, hands down, the most valuable regular book of 1992), is still plenty of incentive to slab.

 

You can say that people were trying to beat the market, but there is no way to prove that. Solar 10 in 9.8 had passed Harbinger 1 9.8 pricewise the last couple years, both were 1992 books. Actually Harbinger 1 came out winter 1991 didn't it? I know the cover date says January, but when was it released at shops? I'm sure a Valiant fan in here can answer that one.

 

 

[Gatsby77]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

[Bosco685]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

My first Harbinger 1 CGC 9.8 came from a grouping of books I bought from one of those card dealers that heavily speculated on comic books in the 90's. So he had his Valiants in storage for years because he couldn't sell them. I purchased the books in 2012, submitted to CGC the same year, and landed a 9.8 grade. My second 9.8 came from a dealer here that had bought a collection in 2013 and submitted the books to CGC that same year.

 

There are more high-grade examples out there with speculators and collectors that probably don't even realize what CGC even is, let alone a 9.8 versus a 9.0 grade.

[___]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

 

Per the Valiantfans website.

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h14

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h15

 

I don't see Livewire anywhere in #14 though. Stronghold is on two panels on the last page.

 

 

Thank you, just wanted to make sure before I tried to hunt down 15 and was off because 14 was the book to get. Can anyone else concur with this?

[___]

Somewhere along the line CGC eased up on grading Harbinger #1 and 9.8's started popping up a lot more. At the same time this happened the price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically, which made slabbing all the high grade copies sitting in collections not a priority anymore.

 

This isn't true, and here's why:

 

The very reason that price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically was precisely because 9.8s started popping up a lot more. The exact opposite is true: people rushed to have them slabbed to beat the market to the bottom.

 

And, as I said before, "$300 for a 1992 book" (which no other regular issue book can claim, by the way...Harby #1 is, hands down, the most valuable regular book of 1992), is still plenty of incentive to slab.

 

It's not like this book was thrown away back in 1992. This was a huge book within the first year it came out. The copies are out there regardless of the print run.

 

What copies? 9.8s?

 

I feel there will be an influx of high grade copies available of all the early Valiant keys shortly, especially once they give us details on just what exact properties will be coming to the big screen.

 

There already has been an influx of high grade copies of all the early Valiant keys...it happened in 2008/2009.

 

We will creep along in dribs and drabs at this point...there will be no more "doubling the census in a couple of months" for books like Harby #1, Solar #10, etc.

 

By the way...I sold a Harby #1 for $720 cash tonight. First 9.8 Harby #1 I have sold in two years. Around 2012, I had a couple of offers of $450, $475 for a copy, and I held out. My price was $500. I turned down multiple offers, and those people eventually ended up buying their copies for less than they offered me. I considered that I might have made a mistake turning down that money, but I was ok with it, because I literally have the cost of slabbing and about $10 each into these books. If I never got the price I wanted, I was ok with keeping them forever and never selling, even if they (especially if they) ended up at $50 in 9.8.

 

It took several years, but I finally got what I wanted, and then some.

 

I'm happy, buyer's happy, win. I'm glad I didn't settle.

 

 

Agreed again, these other folks are just trying to buy on the low and talk the market down, not gonna happen

[___]

We're only just now getting to the point, nearly 30 years on, when good, reliable statistical data can be mined from coin slabbing. With only the one company, and only 15 years on, the picture is still much too fuzzy to draw any really meaningful conclusions.

 

In this case, I trust in Valiantman's expert analytical skills and his application of descriptive statistics to make an assumption about CGC results over time. That doesn't require decades of data when it comes to such sampling. But it does require defining the population (graded books), sampling frame (9.8's of all graded books), an appropriate sample size that can accurately represent the characteristics of the overall population, and validation there is no bias or error in the data pulled.

 

If Valiantman's hypothesis in this case is CGC changed its standards over time, and through the sampling of all 9.8's delivered can validate there was a shift in results, then the assumption is there may have been a shift due to the increase in 9.8 counts compared to all other grades.

 

But I think an interesting chart to validate the hypothesis further is a comparison of all grades to see if they also experienced any shift in results.

 

AMEN again!

[Couchy81]

Isn't the new Livewire different from the 90's Livewire in a significant way? Thought I read that somewhere in this thread.

[Gatsby77]

I'm digging this Solar # 3 homage:

 

[CKB]

I'm digging this Solar # 3 homage:

 

 

Bob did a great job on that! I was sure it was BWS until I saw the signature!

 

I wish the inside was as good!

 

[CKB]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

That timing coincides with the start of the new Valiant. This is going to drive submissions, no doubt about it.

 

You focus on the "tripling" but I look at raw numbers and they tell a different story. You can say the number of copies tripled if it went from 1 to 3.

 

I certainly hear you. Just like I heard the people who said the same thing in 2003, 2005, 2007, etc. We still only have 140ish 9.8s on the census for a book with a ~40K print run that has never sold for much less than $300 and as much as $2k+.

 

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

[FormerReader]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

 

Per the Valiantfans website.

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h14

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h15

 

I don't see Livewire anywhere in #14 though. Stronghold is on two panels on the last page.

 

 

Thank you, just wanted to make sure before I tried to hunt down 15 and was off because 14 was the book to get. Can anyone else concur with this?

 

I would ask Valiantman. Valiantfans is his website. He has #14 as her 1st cameo, but I didn't see her in the issue, though I may have missed it. Stronghold for sure is in two panels.

[FormerReader]

Isn't the new Livewire different from the 90's Livewire in a significant way? Thought I read that somewhere in this thread.

 

Yes the Livewire from the 90's and the Livewire of today are drastically different. It brings up an interesting point, which 1st appearance is more important the 90's one or the current one?

[Gatsby77]

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

To be clear, I've personally never specified a timeline, and I've used IM 55 as my baseline (i.e., 9.8s doubled in the three years since we first saw Thanos on screen).

 

However, I would wager good money that the 9.8 census doubles to 270-300 in the next 4 years (i.e., July 1, 2019) -- sooner if we actually get a cast confirmed by year's end or a teaser trailer by Dec. 2016. (And I recall the Bret Ratner movie hype, etc.)

 

I simply disagree with the argument that a confirmed movie announcement wouldn't result in a "flood" of new 9.8s or the implication that the vast majority of eventual CGC 9.8s have already been slabbed.

 

That's ridiculous. The steady growth in 9.8s despite the book having lost 80% of its value since 2008 demonstrates this isn't a GI Joe 21 situation, let alone a Wolverine 35 one.

[___]

I'm digging this Solar # 3 homage:

 

 

Bob did a great job on that! I was sure it was BWS until I saw the signature!

 

I wish the inside was as good!

 

Nice cover! Need an SS copy of that one

[___]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

That timing coincides with the start of the new Valiant. This is going to drive submissions, no doubt about it.

 

You focus on the "tripling" but I look at raw numbers and they tell a different story. You can say the number of copies tripled if it went from 1 to 3.

 

I certainly hear you. Just like I heard the people who said the same thing in 2003, 2005, 2007, etc. We still only have 140ish 9.8s on the census for a book with a ~40K print run that has never sold for much less than $300 and as much as $2k+.

 

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

My point too. For a book that has always been popular what is the justification for waiting 25 years to finally grade it. The only ones they will still be graded are ones found in the depths of bins which mostly likely will not be 9.8's. They are a few exceptions of people the hoard raw books but the general collecting community doesn't do that. I am not a betting person but I would take a bet on Harbinger 9.8's not increasing its 9.8 threshold past 200 within 4 years especially with how tough CGC is grading right now. They are extremely tough because competition is tough on grading and that won't stop for another year or two.

[CKB]

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

To be clear, I've personally never specified a timeline, and I've used IM 55 as my baseline (i.e., 9.8s doubled in the three years since we first saw Thanos on screen).

 

However, I would wager good money that the 9.8 census doubles to 270-300 in the next 4 years (i.e., July 1, 2019) -- sooner if we actually get a cast confirmed by year's end or a teaser trailer by Dec. 2016. (And I recall the Bret Ratner movie hype, etc.)

 

I simply disagree with the argument that a confirmed movie announcement wouldn't result in a "flood" of new 9.8s or the implication that the vast majority of eventual CGC 9.8s have already been slabbed.

 

That's ridiculous. The steady growth in 9.8s despite the book having lost 80% of its value since 2008 demonstrates this isn't a GI Joe 21 situation, let alone a Wolverine 35 one.

 

I see a doubling within 4 years as supporting my argument! That is not a flood, it's a trickle amidst all the news and speculation. I'm not taking the bet but I don't think we get there.

 

 

[Gatsby77]

We'll see.

 

We've had 3 new 9.8s in the last two months and 9 new 9.8s in the last six months.

 

Back when it was a $300-$325 book and In the absence of public movie hype.