Valiant first appearances (quick version for beginners) Now with pictures! 2 2

[aardvark88]

Valiant animated origins now being uploaded on You Tube. Great marketing to the younger crowd to introduce them to Bloodshot and other heroes or anti-heroes in 2 minute clips:

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/Home/4/1/73/1019?articleID=161856

[AshKenziePaul]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

That timing coincides with the start of the new Valiant. This is going to drive submissions, no doubt about it.

 

You focus on the "tripling" but I look at raw numbers and they tell a different story. You can say the number of copies tripled if it went from 1 to 3.

 

I certainly hear you. Just like I heard the people who said the same thing in 2003, 2005, 2007, etc. We still only have 140ish 9.8s on the census for a book with a ~40K print run that has never sold for much less than $300 and as much as $2k+.

 

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

My point too. For a book that has always been popular what is the justification for waiting 25 years to finally grade it. The only ones they will still be graded are ones found in the depths of bins which mostly likely will not be 9.8's. They are a few exceptions of people the hoard raw books but the general collecting community doesn't do that. I am not a betting person but I would take a bet on Harbinger 9.8's not increasing its 9.8 threshold past 200 within 4 years especially with how tough CGC is grading right now. They are extremely tough because competition is tough on grading and that won't stop for another year or two.

 

"but the general collecting community doesn't do that".

 

I have no idea where you came up with that idea. Most of the comic collectors I know and have known only CGC books when it's time to sell. Myself and others definitely hoard raw books. That's the name of the game! Always has been. I've seen more boxes filled with one single issue than I can recall. I've heard about lots of others doing this sort of thing as well....I know a guy with a friend who has a box full of uncirculated New Mutants 98 (have no reason to believe this person is blowing smoke up my tailpipe). The smart guys know not to flood the market and just drizzle them out as needed.

 

Now in this particular situation, I do NOT see a flood of more 9.8 Harb #1s coming down the pipeline. Valiant just wasn't everyones cup o tea back then and has since been long forgotten by many. I can't tell you how many books I've pulled from fifty-cent bins in the past weeks.

 

So, no on the Valiant 9.8 numbers blowing up.....but have no doubt that lots of us out there hoard the heck of out books. There are certain books that I will always buy if the price is right.

 

 

[___]

We'll see.

 

We've had 3 new 9.8s in the last two months and 9 new 9.8s in the last six months.

 

Back when it was a $300-$325 book and In the absence of public movie hype.

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

 

Per the Valiantfans website.

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h14

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h15

 

I don't see Livewire anywhere in #14 though. Stronghold is on two panels on the last page.

 

 

Thank you, just wanted to make sure before I tried to hunt down 15 and was off because 14 was the book to get. Can anyone else concur with this?

 

I would ask Valiantman. Valiantfans is his website. He has #14 as her 1st cameo, but I didn't see her in the issue, though I may have missed it. Stronghold for sure is in two panels.

I checked out 14 & 15 last night and I don't see Livewire in 14. Also, her appearance is quite small in 15 as well. As for whether the VH1 or VEI first appearance will be the key, I imagine that you would have a lot of people that don't read the books looking for the original and readers looking for both. I think the number of characters that have been updated in the new line and the extent of the changes are going to create a spectrum of whether old or new is preferred.

 

Just buy them all.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Somewhere along the line CGC eased up on grading Harbinger #1 and 9.8's started popping up a lot more. At the same time this happened the price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically, which made slabbing all the high grade copies sitting in collections not a priority anymore.

 

This isn't true, and here's why:

 

The very reason that price of Harbinger #1 was sinking drastically was precisely because 9.8s started popping up a lot more. The exact opposite is true: people rushed to have them slabbed to beat the market to the bottom.

 

And, as I said before, "$300 for a 1992 book" (which no other regular issue book can claim, by the way...Harby #1 is, hands down, the most valuable regular book of 1992), is still plenty of incentive to slab.

 

You can say that people were trying to beat the market, but there is no way to prove that.

 

There absolutely is.

 

Do you have GPA?

 

Go to www.cgcdata.com , and enter "Harbinger #1."

 

Then, go look up the GPA data for Harbinger #1 in 9.8.

 

You can watch the market sink from late 2008 through the summer of 2009, as the number of submissions went up, up, up.

 

And it's not just educated conjecture, because I am right there in the middle of that meltdown, and that's precisely what I did, and it's precisely what others said THEY did on these boards at the time.

 

In fact, that's why I got into pressing. I had four Harby #1s signed at NYCC on Feb 9, 2009, and gave them to Matt Nelson to press...they didn't arrive to CGC until April 16, nine weeks later, and I didn't have them back in hand until June. The 6//28/09 sale of the sig series was my book (which was sold to someone on VF.com via eBay, who then sold it to someone else, who is now offering it for sale on eBay again. The circle of life.)

 

2009 was one giant race to the bottom.

 

Solar 10 in 9.8 had passed Harbinger 1 9.8 pricewise the last couple years, both were 1992 books. Actually Harbinger 1 came out winter 1991 didn't it? I know the cover date says January, but when was it released at shops? I'm sure a Valiant fan in here can answer that one.

 

 

Yes, it came out around Halloween, 1991.

[Slim Pickins]

All of your opinions have been interesting to read. However it is possible that the amount of new 9.8's added to the market will not matter at all.

 

Has anyone considered the fact that one of the largest Chinese entertainment companies bought the rights to Valiant? These characters are about to be introduced to billions of new potential fans. It's possible, that even though these books were over produced to death, it still may not be enough to sustain a whole new Chinese demand. They could easily devour every vintage valiant book left in existence, overnight.

It's also possible that it could totally flop and no one will care. That is something Valiant has done here once already. It's an exciting moment and completely unprecedented. I can't wait to see how this plays out.

[RockMyAmadeus]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

You are correct. Fortuitously, no one assumed that.

 

I have about 10 more 9.8 potentials sitting in a box not 20 feet away from me. I am just one person. My experience alone negates such an assumption.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

No argument from me.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

That is correct. "Effectively anyone" who had 9.8 potentials didn't all slab them.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Valiant animated origins now being uploaded on You Tube. Great marketing to the younger crowd to introduce them to Bloodshot and other heroes or anti-heroes in 2 minute clips:

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/Home/4/1/73/1019?articleID=161856

Thanks for the link.

Pretty cool. The possibilities for Valiant now are endless.A great comic universe that is now getting that mainstream exposure.

 

Edited April 2, 2015 by ComicConnoisseur

[RockMyAmadeus]

To assume that anyone and everyone with potential 9.8s rushed to slab them 7 years ago when the first few went to $2,500 is misguided.

 

Many many folks just weren't thinking about the pre-Unity Valiant books they had left over from the downturn. And many folks just aren't plugged into CGC.

 

There is zero evidence to back up the assertion that effectively anyone who had 9.8 potentials would have slabbed them in 2008-2009. If that were true, the number of 9.8s would not have tripled since Jan. 2010 (which it has).

 

That timing coincides with the start of the new Valiant. This is going to drive submissions, no doubt about it.

 

You focus on the "tripling" but I look at raw numbers and they tell a different story. You can say the number of copies tripled if it went from 1 to 3.

 

I certainly hear you. Just like I heard the people who said the same thing in 2003, 2005, 2007, etc. We still only have 140ish 9.8s on the census for a book with a ~40K print run that has never sold for much less than $300 and as much as $2k+.

 

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

A lot of people...and I mean, a LOT of people...would do well to find books on census analysis and read, read, read before posting.

 

It's like fish in a barrel....all these things have already happened in the coin, and then card, markets, and it's just like clockwork happening in the comics market. It is quite scientific, how these things happen.

 

A healthy couple of decades of experience would help, too, but that's not something you can buy.

 

Since 2010, there has been a single instance of an 8 copy jump between census reports (August-Sept 2013), a single instance of a 4 copy jump, and four instances of 3 copy jumps. That's it. Everything else has been ones or twos, steadily creeping up, slowly but surely, at an average of 1.4 a month for the last 63 months.

 

It is critical...VITAL...to understand that Harbinger #1 is the single most valuable book of 1992 that currently exists. That matters because it has ALWAYS been "worth it" to slab in 9.8, and there are dozens, if not hundreds, of people scouring the land on a regular basis (Rich Henn, Topnotch, Greg Reece, SOT, etc) looking for this particular book, buying 9.8 potential copies.

 

Just like there are hundreds of people scouring the land for Bone #1 1st prints in 9.8, or Batman Adventures #12 9.8s, or X-Men #266 9.8s, etc etc etc. No one is going to pass on that book as a 9.8 potential, because it's been worth at least $300. If you buy a 9.8 potential for $50, and slab it for $25, and sell it for $300...you win.

 

And what we have here is dribs and drabs. The flood is over. There will be no more "doubling of the census" in a few months, as in the past, or even in a year. Five years? Sure, of course! Onesies, twosies will continue to come in.

 

But 13 copies added in two months, taking the census from 24 to 37, from April to June of 2009? Or from 24 to 42 from April to September? Or 12 to 42 from March of 08 to Sept of 09?

 

Not going to happen, and certainly not in those same percentages.

[RockMyAmadeus]

If you really think there are going to be 250 this time next year, I do not see the evidence for it, at all.

 

To be clear, I've personally never specified a timeline, and I've used IM 55 as my baseline (i.e., 9.8s doubled in the three years since we first saw Thanos on screen).

 

However, I would wager good money that the 9.8 census doubles to 270-300 in the next 4 years (i.e., July 1, 2019) -- sooner if we actually get a cast confirmed by year's end or a teaser trailer by Dec. 2016. (And I recall the Bret Ratner movie hype, etc.)

 

If the current rate of increase of 1.4 per month remains in effect, that will add 70 copies to the census, or a little over 200.

 

The "jump" from $300 to $800 is still a fluke at this point, and isn't likely to inspire much difference from what is already happening. My 9.8 is up on eBay for $850, and I haven't gotten so much as a nibble.

 

I simply disagree with the argument that a confirmed movie announcement wouldn't result in a "flood" of new 9.8s or the implication that the vast majority of eventual CGC 9.8s have already been slabbed.

 

Despite all the evidence to the contrary.

 

No one is making the argument, by the way, that the "vast majority" of eventual 9.8s has already been slabbed. The argument is that you won't be finding 300-400 more copies of this book out there in 9.8, still sitting in collections/inventories/hoards/stockpiles. And the ones that do come in will be onesies and twosies, the same as it's been since the beginning of 2010.

 

That's ridiculous. The steady growth in 9.8s despite the book having lost 80% of its value since 2008 demonstrates this isn't a GI Joe 21 situation, let alone a Wolverine 35 one.

 

It doesn't matter that it has lost "80% of its value."

 

First, that value wasn't a real one. It wasn't accurate.

 

It's like the people who paid $1200 for an MS65 1881-S Morgan dollar, in 1989 dollars no less, and I can right now, 26 years later, pay $145 and have it in my hands in a couple of days.

 

$1200 wasn't a real price, but when the census was low, that's what people were willing to pay, until the census caught up.

 

Second...the book has, again, never sold for less than $300 in the last 13 years. It doesn't matter that it "crashed", because those people who are looking for them don't care. If Topnotch pays $50 for a copy, slabs it for $25, and sells it for $300, he wins. Who cares that it has "lost 80% of its value"? No one.

 

It's not like someone is going to come across a raw 9.8 potential, and then sneer at it and say "pffft! This lousy book was worth $2,000 in 9.8, and now it's only worth $300! It is not worthy of my attention. PASS. Hmph! (best said with a snooty French accent.)"

 

No one is going to say that.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

We'll see.

 

We've had 3 new 9.8s in the last two months and 9 new 9.8s in the last six months.

 

Back when it was a $300-$325 book and In the absence of public movie hype.

 

1.4 per month, same as it's been since the beginning of 2010.

[RockMyAmadeus]

All of your opinions have been interesting to read. However it is possible that the amount of new 9.8's added to the market will not matter at all.

 

Has anyone considered the fact that one of the largest Chinese entertainment companies bought the rights to Valiant? These characters are about to be introduced to billions of new potential fans. It's possible, that even though these books were over produced to death, it still may not be enough to sustain a whole new Chinese demand. They could easily devour every vintage valiant book left in existence, overnight.

It's also possible that it could totally flop and no one will care. That is something Valiant has done here once already. It's an exciting moment and completely unprecedented. I can't wait to see how this plays out.

 

This would be wonderful, because then I would be rich!

 

The plans and goals and dreams I had in the early 90's, long since deferred and delayed, would finally come true....and just at the point where it no longer mattered to me.

 

 

It would be quite nice if Harby #1 was the $10,000 book (raw, natch) that it could have been, had it even come close to matching the trajectory of Avengers #1.

 

[Broke as a Joke]

Like I stated earlier, Solar 10 has actually passed Harbinger 1 in terms of value in 9.8.

 

Also considering the print run and availability I would argue that the most valuable book from 1992 has turned into ASM 361. Which is clearing over $200 for 9.8 copies and probably had at least 5 times the print run.

[Bosco685]

Valiant animated origins now being uploaded on You Tube. Great marketing to the younger crowd to introduce them to Bloodshot and other heroes or anti-heroes in 2 minute clips:

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/Home/4/1/73/1019?articleID=161856

Thanks for the link.

Pretty cool. The possibilities for Valiant now are endless.A great comic universe that is now getting that mainstream exposure.

 

 

That is really cool!

 

[valiantman]

All of your opinions have been interesting to read. However it is possible that the amount of new 9.8's added to the market will not matter at all.

 

Has anyone considered the fact that one of the largest Chinese entertainment companies bought the rights to Valiant? These characters are about to be introduced to billions of new potential fans. It's possible, that even though these books were over produced to death, it still may not be enough to sustain a whole new Chinese demand. They could easily devour every vintage valiant book left in existence, overnight.

It's also possible that it could totally flop and no one will care. That is something Valiant has done here once already. It's an exciting moment and completely unprecedented. I can't wait to see how this plays out.

 

Just to clarify... the Chinese entertainment company (DMG) bought a minority stake in Valiant Entertainment for $100million+. DMG will definitely do what they can in the Asian market to make their investment profitable, which is a huge population of people who aren't already Valiant fans... but the control of Valiant Entertainment (majority control) is still in the U.S.

[valiantman]

Also considering the print run and availability I would argue that the most valuable book from 1992 has turned into ASM 361. Which is clearing over $200 for 9.8 copies and probably had at least 5 times the print run.

Sounds like you're advocating for the "total market value" model to understanding the market.

 

I approve.

[Gatsby77]

Hmm...as a Valiant fan, I agree that Solar 10's both rarer and more desirable in 9.8 than Harbinger 1, but the value's not there (yet).

 

GPA shows Solar 10 in 9.8 has sold in a relatively narrow band of $400-$467 over the last 15 months.

 

Harbinger 1 is beating it in terms of 30-day, 90-day and 12-month averages, with recorded March 2015 sales as much as 2x that of Solar 10.

 

Again, I'd personally take a 9.8 Solar 10 over a 9.8 Harbinger 1, but the latter's more valuable in today's market.

[valiantman]

Some more characters who have played a big part in the new Valiant:

 

Quantum # Woody #1: First Quantum, First Woody

Harbinger #14: FIrst Livewire

Rai & the Future Force #9: First Spylocke

 

 

I have seen more than one source say livewire appeared in 14 but I don't see it. Anyone else? I clearly see her in issue 15.

 

Per the Valiantfans website.

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h14

 

http://www.valiantfan.com/issue/show/h15

 

I don't see Livewire anywhere in #14 though. Stronghold is on two panels on the last page.

 

 

Thank you, just wanted to make sure before I tried to hunt down 15 and was off because 14 was the book to get. Can anyone else concur with this?

 

I would ask Valiantman. Valiantfans is his website. He has #14 as her 1st cameo, but I didn't see her in the issue, though I may have missed it. Stronghold for sure is in two panels.

Most of the information on ValiantFan.com about comics from the 1990s comes from the 1990s.

 

I just checked Harbinger #14 and I don't see Livewire either... so the source of info about appearances was wrong on that one.

My guess is that they assumed Livewire and Stronghold appeared together (because they tend to appear together).

Stronghold does appear on the last page of #14.

 

At any rate, Harbinger #15 is the first Livewire of the 1990s, but she is very different from the current Livewire.

 

The current Livewire is a blend of the original Livewire character with the Randy Cartier character (from X-O #12).

As far as the look and the fact that she has controlled the X-O armor goes... the current Livewire is more like Randy.

 

Honestly, if you're interested in the current Livewire, it's probably best to look at her first appearance in the current Valiant universe... Harbinger #3 (2012).

 

[Gatsby77]

I like the idea of "total market cap" as one way of evaluating books (and momentum).

 

Greg pointed out that at $845 per, Harbinger 1 9.8's theoretical market cap is $114,000.

 

At $87 per and 1,872 copies, Spawn 1's 9.8 market cap is just shy of $163,000.

 

At $208 per and 1,090, ASM 361's 9.8 cap's at over $225,000.

 

Other obvious contenders?

[valiantman]

I like the idea of "total market cap" as one way of evaluating books (and momentum).

 

Greg pointed out that at $845 per, Harbinger 1 9.8's theoretical market cap is $114,000.

 

At $87 per and 1,872 copies, Spawn 1's 9.8 market cap is just shy of $163,000.

 

At $208 per and 1,090, ASM 361's 9.8 cap's at over $225,000.

 

Other obvious contenders?

Well, we probably should include the Signature Series 9.8s with the Universal 9.8 counts.

Obviously, the signature normally adds value above the Universal, but to keep it simple, you might just use the Universal 9.8 value for both types.

 

Here are the 1992 counts for Universal 9.8 plus Signature 9.8 (or higher):

 

Spawn 1 = 2,265

Amazing Spider-Man 361 = 1,209

Superman: The Man of Steel 18 = 964

Amazing Spider-Man 362 = 911

Amazing Spider-Man 363 = 643

X-Men 4 = 481

X-O Manowar 1 = 369

Wolverine 50 = 283

Rai 0 = 282

Spider-Man 2099 1 = 266

Amazing Spider-Man 365 = 262

Punisher: War Zone 1 = 259

Spawn 2 = 247

Iron Man 282 = 243

X-Force 11 = 220

Rai 1 = 219

Harbinger 0 Pink Variant = 207

Uncanny X-Men 284 = 195

Spider-Man 26 = 193

Spawn 4 = 185

Shadowman 1 = 181

Uncanny X-Men 288 = 181

Superman 74 = 173

WildC.A.T.S. 1 = 154

Spawn 3 = 152

Rai 3 = 151

Unity 1 Gold Edition = 149

Harbinger 1 = 143

 

I kept the list going until I got to Harbinger #1 (it's 28th).