What happened to More Fun #73?

[The-Collector]

It went from being an undervalued book to an overvalued one. I don't care how much additional interest there currently is in either Aquaman or Green Arrow, values higher than that of MF #52 are not sustainable, especially with no cover appearance. It ran up too fast for a GA book that already had some key value. This isn't a TTA #13 situation where a random book increases 20 fold in value because of newly acquired key status. You will probably never be able to pick up a VG copy for 4 grand again, but I wouldn't count on being able to sell one for 40K much longer either.

 

Playing devil's advocate --

 

Do we live in a world where first Aquaman + first Green Arrow < 10% of first Superman grade-for-grade, even without a character-representative cover? We used to, but it's very plausible we don't anymore.

 

Actually, I think ten percent more than works as a gut-check number in a vacuum (as in... "Is Aquaman + Green Arrow worth ten percent of Superman? Uh... yes? I think?" That's actually a pretty good man-on-the-street question ) five percent seems too low, twenty percent is probably too high. I'm completely making this stuff up, but of course, that's what we do. We have these complex theoretical interdependencies of importance, which are all purely imaginary, but that we completely buy into anyway to make the prices sort-of make sense.

 

****

 

 

Census numbers (I'm going to hand-wave around the fact that we know this isn't all that accurate) for Bat 1 are nearly 6x numbers of MF 73. We know there's going to be SOME increase in subs this year, but... how much is a big question. I don't think you can point to too many examples of GA books getting big census bumps, with the exception of perhaps some known warehouse finds. Certainly, many top-end key book prices have gone through the roof since 2010 and that has not brought out an "unusual" number of additional copies of those books.

 

You can also look at MF 52, perceived as an important key for much longer, yet has nearly identical total census numbers to MF 73. I think that's pretty telling. I think all the data tells us that MF 73 won't be closing the gap census-wise with some of the other key books anytime soon. Even All-Star 8 has over 3x that number. So... if we presume that what 15 years of slabbing data has told us so far about Golden Age will continue to hold true (admittedly, maybe not a good assumption quite yet, but we'll see!) that in itself has some pretty interesting implications.

 

 

****

 

There's also this... kind of slippery idea... that conventional wisdom on these things is very often going to be wrong. It's useful to think of 2010 as a turning point in the market, we entered the million dollar era. If you go back and look at these sorts of threads since then, you will find that "we", collectively, don't reach a very useful or accurate consensus on these topics all that often. There's some pretty good reasons for that, but I think the most important one is that true experts who are experienced and frequent market participants have very compelling reasons for not giving away their edge. Obvious I guess, but you can make some fun inferences if you keep that in mind during discussions like this.

 

All of which means... not that much. Probably.

 

 

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

[jjeanius]

The tough part for me is evaluating books (such as this one) that are now being judged based on a whole new set of criteria. Historically, books have been evaluated solely based on their significance/importance WITHIN THE HOBBY. In recent years, this is now also largely being determined by appearances in movies, TV, etc. So...in many ways, these new criteria are counter-intuitive to everything I learned as a collector over the last 30 years. For that reason, it's very difficult to accept market changes based on these criteria, where minor keys can suddenly become much more desirable simply because a movie has been announced, etc.

 

I guess my main question is this: Who is buying these books now at the inflated prices...? Is there a new generation of comic collectors that place such an emphasis on movies / TV / etc, or is this simply speculation from long-time collectors that are now playing the game based on short-term hype, etc...?

 

If there are new collectors entering the hobby that are much more accepting of the new criteria for "key" status, then the price corrections may become more permanent. On the other hand, if it's primarily the result of speculation, then it feels a lot more like a game of musical chairs, and I would expect the bottom to fall out once the characters are no longer "in favor" because of upcoming movies, etc.

 

I suspect the answer lies somewhere in the middle...and I am trying not to let my own long-held personal biases to drive the ship. That being said, increased interest in Wonder Woman (and female characters in general) makes a lot more sense to me than increased interest in Aquaman / Green Arrow. Aquaman and Green Arrow have just been third-tier characters for too long for me to care too much about them personally. Meanwhile, WW (and to a lesser extent, Zatanna / Huntress / Power Girl / Black Canary / etc) have all been top tier characters that simply weren't getting as much respect as they have deserved.

[jimbo_707]

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

True. Even key comic books have no value whatsoever to 99% of the population.

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

[Jaydogrules]

It went from being an undervalued book to an overvalued one. I don't care how much additional interest there currently is in either Aquaman or Green Arrow, values higher than that of MF #52 are not sustainable, especially with no cover appearance. It ran up too fast for a GA book that already had some key value. This isn't a TTA #13 situation where a random book increases 20 fold in value because of newly acquired key status. You will probably never be able to pick up a VG copy for 4 grand again, but I wouldn't count on being able to sell one for 40K much longer either.

 

Playing devil's advocate --

 

Do we live in a world where first Aquaman + first Green Arrow < 10% of first Superman grade-for-grade, even without a character-representative cover? We used to, but it's very plausible we don't anymore.

 

Actually, I think ten percent more than works as a gut-check number in a vacuum (as in... "Is Aquaman + Green Arrow worth ten percent of Superman? Uh... yes? I think?" That's actually a pretty good man-on-the-street question ) five percent seems too low, twenty percent is probably too high. I'm completely making this stuff up, but of course, that's what we do. We have these complex theoretical interdependencies of importance, which are all purely imaginary, but that we completely buy into anyway to make the prices sort-of make sense.

 

****

 

 

Census numbers (I'm going to hand-wave around the fact that we know this isn't all that accurate) for Bat 1 are nearly 6x numbers of MF 73. We know there's going to be SOME increase in subs this year, but... how much is a big question. I don't think you can point to too many examples of GA books getting big census bumps, with the exception of perhaps some known warehouse finds. Certainly, many top-end key book prices have gone through the roof since 2010 and that has not brought out an "unusual" number of additional copies of those books.

 

You can also look at MF 52, perceived as an important key for much longer, yet has nearly identical total census numbers to MF 73. I think that's pretty telling. I think all the data tells us that MF 73 won't be closing the gap census-wise with some of the other key books anytime soon. Even All-Star 8 has over 3x that number. So... if we presume that what 15 years of slabbing data has told us so far about Golden Age will continue to hold true (admittedly, maybe not a good assumption quite yet, but we'll see!) that in itself has some pretty interesting implications.

 

 

****

 

There's also this... kind of slippery idea... that conventional wisdom on these things is very often going to be wrong. It's useful to think of 2010 as a turning point in the market, we entered the million dollar era. If you go back and look at these sorts of threads since then, you will find that "we", collectively, don't reach a very useful or accurate consensus on these topics all that often. There's some pretty good reasons for that, but I think the most important one is that true experts who are experienced and frequent market participants have very compelling reasons for not giving away their edge. Obvious I guess, but you can make some fun inferences if you keep that in mind during discussions like this.

 

All of which means... not that much. Probably.

 

 

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

 

Is "Arrow" even really all that popular though ? It has never been a ratings juggernaut and airs on a third rate network. Its ratings aren't even as good as "Flash", which is in its freshman season.

 

And I don't know who Jason Momoa is supposed to be portraying in the movies, but it sure isn't "Aquaman".

 

If this is the reasoning behind this book's out - sized rise in value, then it is on thin ice indeed.

 

Relative to far more important characters with long standing cultural impact, not to mention just plain better stories over the decades, "cool factor", etc, this book does seem outrageously over valued now. Green Arrow has always been a third tier character and Aquaman, somewhat of a laughingstock (though I did used to like him as a kid).

 

-J.

 

 

[jjeanius]

What is the first appearance of the "Wonder Twins" in comics...? I feel like I need to start loading up for the inevitable explosion.

[The-Collector]

It went from being an undervalued book to an overvalued one. I don't care how much additional interest there currently is in either Aquaman or Green Arrow, values higher than that of MF #52 are not sustainable, especially with no cover appearance. It ran up too fast for a GA book that already had some key value. This isn't a TTA #13 situation where a random book increases 20 fold in value because of newly acquired key status. You will probably never be able to pick up a VG copy for 4 grand again, but I wouldn't count on being able to sell one for 40K much longer either.

 

Playing devil's advocate --

 

Do we live in a world where first Aquaman + first Green Arrow < 10% of first Superman grade-for-grade, even without a character-representative cover? We used to, but it's very plausible we don't anymore.

 

Actually, I think ten percent more than works as a gut-check number in a vacuum (as in... "Is Aquaman + Green Arrow worth ten percent of Superman? Uh... yes? I think?" That's actually a pretty good man-on-the-street question ) five percent seems too low, twenty percent is probably too high. I'm completely making this stuff up, but of course, that's what we do. We have these complex theoretical interdependencies of importance, which are all purely imaginary, but that we completely buy into anyway to make the prices sort-of make sense.

 

****

 

 

Census numbers (I'm going to hand-wave around the fact that we know this isn't all that accurate) for Bat 1 are nearly 6x numbers of MF 73. We know there's going to be SOME increase in subs this year, but... how much is a big question. I don't think you can point to too many examples of GA books getting big census bumps, with the exception of perhaps some known warehouse finds. Certainly, many top-end key book prices have gone through the roof since 2010 and that has not brought out an "unusual" number of additional copies of those books.

 

You can also look at MF 52, perceived as an important key for much longer, yet has nearly identical total census numbers to MF 73. I think that's pretty telling. I think all the data tells us that MF 73 won't be closing the gap census-wise with some of the other key books anytime soon. Even All-Star 8 has over 3x that number. So... if we presume that what 15 years of slabbing data has told us so far about Golden Age will continue to hold true (admittedly, maybe not a good assumption quite yet, but we'll see!) that in itself has some pretty interesting implications.

 

 

****

 

There's also this... kind of slippery idea... that conventional wisdom on these things is very often going to be wrong. It's useful to think of 2010 as a turning point in the market, we entered the million dollar era. If you go back and look at these sorts of threads since then, you will find that "we", collectively, don't reach a very useful or accurate consensus on these topics all that often. There's some pretty good reasons for that, but I think the most important one is that true experts who are experienced and frequent market participants have very compelling reasons for not giving away their edge. Obvious I guess, but you can make some fun inferences if you keep that in mind during discussions like this.

 

All of which means... not that much. Probably.

 

 

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

 

Is "Arrow" even really all that popular though ? It has never been a ratings juggernaut and airs on a third rate network. Its ratings aren't even as good as "Flash", which is in its freshman season.

 

And I don't know who Jason Momoa is supposed to be portraying in the movies, but it sure isn't "Aquaman".

 

If this is the reasoning behind this book's out - sized rise in value, then it is on thin ice indeed.

 

Relative to far more important and characters with long standing cultural impact, not to mention just plain better stories over the decades, "cool factor", etc, this book does seem outrageously over valued now. Green Arrow has always been a third tier character and Aquaman, somewhat of a laughingstock (though I did used to like him as a kid).

 

-J.

 

 

Not sure how popular it actually is, it certainly isn't unpopular. And is getting a fair amount of press coverage. Aquaman comic sales have been strong. So maybe it is a confluence of events in an already bullish atmosphere.

[Sqeggs]

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

True. Even key comic books have no value whatsoever to 99% of the population.

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

 

May be a bit of stretch to call that one a major motion picture. I have zero recollection of it and had to look on imdb to be sure you weren't confusing it with the 1950's film starring Robert Wagner.

 

It is a good point, though, that the long-run effect of movies/television shows on comic prices is uncertain. In the case of this particular book, I would be astounded if people are able to sell for anything close to recent prices in, say, five years. But I've certainly been wrong before!

[rjpb]

Exacerbated by TV/Movie hype we are also in an era of "what have we been overlooking and is undervalued" speculation. The GA is a little less susceptible to this, but I sometimes reel at the number of Silver through Modern books that have gone from ignored back stock to hot commodities worth 20 times or more what they had been just a few months earlier. Sure, there are some legitimate overnight sensations, but much of this stuff seems like a bubble, buying with the expectation that demand will remain high for literally dozens of characters who have historically had trouble maintaining sustained interest within the collecting community, let alone outside it.

 

And while TV shows, video games and movies may bring a larger audience to some of these characters, it's not clear that many of them resonate. Find someone who wasn't already a comic geek, but who has seen all or most of the X-Men films and then ask them to name the characters. My guess is they wouldn't even get half way through the list.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Forgive me if this has been discussed at length before, but what the happened to More Fun #73?

 

Is this really a 10K+ per point book now?

 

I mean, I understand that there has been renewed interest in Green Arrow due to the popularity of Arrow, and that Aquaman is hot for similar reasons, but 10k+ per point?

 

That's bat guano nuts.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hollywood is what happened.

Also try to find one.

I was trying to find one before the hype.

Impossible now without paying an arm or leg.

 

There are a few other golden age books with More Fun #73 potential.

Get them now before hype begins.

[The-Collector]

Forgive me if this has been discussed at length before, but what the happened to More Fun #73?

 

Is this really a 10K+ per point book now?

 

I mean, I understand that there has been renewed interest in Green Arrow due to the popularity of Arrow, and that Aquaman is hot for similar reasons, but 10k+ per point?

 

That's bat guano nuts.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hollywood is what happened.

Also try to find one.

I was trying to find one before the hype.

Impossible now without paying an arm or leg.

 

There are a few other golden age books with More Fun #73 potential.

Get them now before hype begins.

 

Statements like these indicate to me that the hype has already begun.

[ComicConnoisseur]

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

True. Even key comic books have no value whatsoever to 99% of the population.

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

I think because Prince Valiant`s first appearance was in the comic strip before the comic book.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

Forgive me if this has been discussed at length before, but what the happened to More Fun #73?

 

Is this really a 10K+ per point book now?

 

I mean, I understand that there has been renewed interest in Green Arrow due to the popularity of Arrow, and that Aquaman is hot for similar reasons, but 10k+ per point?

 

That's bat guano nuts.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hollywood is what happened.

Also try to find one.

I was trying to find one before the hype.

Impossible now without paying an arm or leg.

 

There are a few other golden age books with More Fun #73 potential.

Get them now before hype begins.

 

Statements like these indicate to me that the hype has already begun.

Well before the hype goes on steroids.

[Sqeggs]

Forgive me if this has been discussed at length before, but what the happened to More Fun #73?

 

Is this really a 10K+ per point book now?

 

I mean, I understand that there has been renewed interest in Green Arrow due to the popularity of Arrow, and that Aquaman is hot for similar reasons, but 10k+ per point?

 

That's bat guano nuts.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hollywood is what happened.

Also try to find one.

I was trying to find one before the hype.

Impossible now without paying an arm or leg.

 

There are a few other golden age books with More Fun #73 potential.

Get them now before hype begins.

 

Statements like these indicate to me that the hype has already begun.

Well before the hype goes on steroids.

 

PM me the list.

[markseifert]

If we're talking long-term projection, even taking scarcity into account, I do not see the 1st appearances of Aquaman and Green Arrow being anywhere near as desirable as the 1st appearances of the Joker (Batman #1),

 

Yes, buuuuuuut.....

 

[and again, playing devils advocate, this is just a silly fun conversation that doesn't mean anything ]

 

....it doesn't have to be anywhere near as desirable as the first appearance of Joker (and catwoman!) to attain the same price. (which it has not done yet, btw.)

 

If every person who was in the market for a Batman 1 over the next couple years is also in the market for a MF 73 over the next couple years... well... what would happen? What would happen if "just" half the people who are in the market for Bat 1 also want a MF 73?

 

 

****

 

Let's also take a look at the notion of bubbles in the context of GA books taking big jumps. Whiz #1 for example, currently being highly buzzed about (and rightly so!) in another thread.

 

Between, say... 1990 and 2010... a big book with the biggest reputation in the world of being a slow seller that was on the way down. Then, in 2011, a 7.0 sold for 9x what it had 6 years prior, and then a 9.0 sold for $280k.

 

And then we all collectively jumped on the census, and went

 

And then we all collectively jumped on GPA, looked at the nearly non-existent mid/high grade sales history, and went

 

And if you could go back in time to 2009 and tell the board that in the near future, there'd be a thread buzzing about the upcoming sale of a 3.0 (a 3 point 0!!) Whiz 1, you'd have been branded a lunatic (even aside from the time travel part).

 

All for... not that much reason at all. We all just changed our minds about the book. That's it.

 

Were we right about the relative importance of the book for the previous two decades, or are we right now? (trick question)

 

 

 

[jimbo_707]

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

True. Even key comic books have no value whatsoever to 99% of the population.

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

 

May be a bit of stretch to call that one a major motion picture. I have zero recollection of it and had to look on imdb to be sure you weren't confusing it with the 1950's film starring Robert Wagner.

 

It is a good point, though, that the long-run effect of movies/television shows on comic prices is uncertain. In the case of this particular book, I would be astounded if people are able to sell for anything close to recent prices in, say, five years. But I've certainly been wrong before!

You remembered the 1954 Robert Wagner movie but not the 1997 movie? Just how old are you, Sqeggs?

[Sqeggs]

 

I am not sure you can tell much, if anything, from one person's intuition. 10% seems high to me.

 

I think the reason group consensus is not very helpful in predicting long term trends is that comic books have no intrinsic value. The price of a comic is not dependent upon fundamentals but on random events like a popular Arrow TV show or more generally the blockbuster movies released in the last seven years.

True. Even key comic books have no value whatsoever to 99% of the population.

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

 

May be a bit of stretch to call that one a major motion picture. I have zero recollection of it and had to look on imdb to be sure you weren't confusing it with the 1950's film starring Robert Wagner.

 

It is a good point, though, that the long-run effect of movies/television shows on comic prices is uncertain. In the case of this particular book, I would be astounded if people are able to sell for anything close to recent prices in, say, five years. But I've certainly been wrong before!

You remembered the 1954 Robert Wagner movie but not the 1997 movie? Just how old are you, Sqeggs?

 

 

But I've only seen the 1954 movie on TV.

[jimbo_707]

 

People tend to forget movies, too. Prince Valiant was a major motion picture back in 1997, but you don't see people lining up to buy copies of the Prince Valiant Feature Book.

 

May be a bit of stretch to call that one a major motion picture. I have zero recollection of it and had to look on imdb to be sure you weren't confusing it with the 1950's film starring Robert Wagner.

 

It is a good point, though, that the long-run effect of movies/television shows on comic prices is uncertain. In the case of this particular book, I would be astounded if people are able to sell for anything close to recent prices in, say, five years. But I've certainly been wrong before!

You remembered the 1954 Robert Wagner movie but not the 1997 movie? Just how old are you, Sqeggs?

 

 

But I've only seen the 1954 movie on TV.

(thumbs u

[Wayne-Tec]

If MF #73 doesn't have to be anywhere near as desirable as Batman #1 to equal it in value -- would scarcity then be the lone factor driving it's value to equal footing?

 

I hear you loud and clear on the Whiz #2 (#1) analogy.

 

But with Whiz #1, I think it's important that Captain Marvel was once the best selling character in comics, that he was featured prominently on the front cover and that the book hit newsstands in December of 1939. Could the search for an undervalued book have at play? Absolutely, I just feel that that book in particular had a number of factors that contributed to it's "resurgence."

[Brandon Shepherd]

Exacerbated by TV/Movie hype we are also in an era of "what have we been overlooking and is undervalued" speculation. The GA is a little less susceptible to this, but I sometimes reel at the number of Silver through Modern books that have gone from ignored back stock to hot commodities worth 20 times or more what they had been just a few months earlier. Sure, there are some legitimate overnight sensations, but much of this stuff seems like a bubble, buying with the expectation that demand will remain high for literally dozens of characters who have historically had trouble maintaining sustained interest within the collecting community, let alone outside it.

 

And while TV shows, video games and movies may bring a larger audience to some of these characters, it's not clear that many of them resonate. Find someone who wasn't already a comic geek, but who has seen all or most of the X-Men films and then ask them to name the characters. My guess is they wouldn't even get half way through the list.

 

This resonates with me. I don't have any Golden Age books, just the Gerber Journals. Maybe someday I find a few. What this resonates with me is that most superhero fans I know in person, i.e. coworkers, are more fans of the movies and video games. This makes me wonder if the next big comic book crash is forthcoming and what will happen to the Golden Age market.

[markseifert]

But with Whiz #1, I think it's important that Captain Marvel was once the best selling character in comics, that he was featured prominently on the front cover and that the book hit newsstands in December of 1939.

 

Ok, ... let me think about that.

 

Is there a book that is character-cover-challenged like MF 73 is, and came out in 1941 like MF 73 did, and that -- also due to rarity -- has experienced an even greater recent market run-up than MF 73 has so far?

 

 

 

 

Ok, haha... fun and games aside, of course there is such a book. I am too lazy to dig out my old overstreets to accurately assess this book's historical place in the scheme of things, but in 2010, the big O had it at 1/5 the value of Bat 1, for whatever that may be worth.

 

Currently, the market says this book is in the same general price class as Bat 1 and Cap 1.

 

Of course I'm talking about Pep 22.

 

Is Archie as important as Joker + Catwoman?

Is Archie as important as Green Arrow + Aquaman?

Are there as many serious Archie collectors as there are Batman or Cap collectors?

Project forward 5 years. 10 years. What then?

 

Are current Pep 22 values more sustainable than current MF 73 values? Why or why not?