Accuracy of Gerber and Overstreet Scarcity Designations 8 8

[markseifert]

 

Now do all the October copies have the NOV stamp above it as well or is this considered a November copy? Is this a third version?

 

I was wondering this as well. Not that I've looked at a bunch of them carefully, but I thought the Oct was obscured completely on most November copies.

[action1kid]

the oct copies will say oct and nothing else,,there are no black circles on oct copies...the nov copies have the oct blocked by a black circle,,on some copies you can see the oct through the black circle[only on some.like the one above were the black circle was scratched off..and you can see oct and nov,,this is actually a nov copy..

[Harvey Dude]

the oct copies will say oct and nothing else,,there are no black circles on oct copies...the nov copies have the oct blocked by a black circle,,on some copies you can see the oct through the black circle[only on some.like the one above were the black circle was scratched off..and you can see oct and nov,,this is actually a nov copy..

 

What I find interesting is that the two versions have October written in two different fonts which implies different printing schedules.

[Silver Surfer]

the oct copies will say oct and nothing else,,there are no black circles on oct copies...the nov copies have the oct blocked by a black circle,,on some copies you can see the oct through the black circle[only on some.like the one above were the black circle was scratched off..and you can see oct and nov,,this is actually a nov copy..

 

That's what I thought. I seem to recall that the OS Guide talks about the various printings a bit. I still want to own that Cage October copy one day.

[esquirecomics]

My latest Gerber "8". Published in 1945 this one shot book reprinted stories, including by Siegel and Shuster, from the 1930s. If it looks familiar that is because the cover is redrawn from Detective #9.

 

[Timely]

The Migh High copy is up for sale right now!

 

West

[esquirecomics]

I recently acquired this copy of All Top Comics #4, which is listed as a Gerber "7". However, of greater interest is that it is a Gerber no-show (i.e., no image listed, just a blank box)!

 

[Harvey Dude]

Hey Esquire,

 

Your Federal Men has pretty vibrant colors. Good pickup.

[jimjum12]

I just picked up a Gerber 7(Star-spangled Comics #74) that I had been looking for a long time in affordable(5.0) grade.I don't know if it deserves a 7 or not,but it's definitely not common.The only other Gerber 7 that I've owned was Namora #1. That one I definitely believe deserves the distinction.One of my good friends,who once owned 2 Captain America # 1's told me that in 20 years on the convention circuit he definitely thought that book was a lot more common than a 7 designation would indicate.He said there were probably 25 copies in this state alone.One scarce book I wouldn't mind finding in the VG range is Rangers Comics #14.That's ONE awesome cover! GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[adamstrange]

I just picked up a Gerber 7(Star-spangled Comics #74) that I had been looking for a long time in affordable(5.0) grade.I don't know if it deserves a 7 or not,but it's definitely not common.The only other Gerber 7 that I've owned was Namora #1. That one I definitely believe deserves the distinction.One of my good friends,who once owned 2 Captain America # 1's told me that in 20 years on the convention circuit he definitely thought that book was a lot more common than a 7 designation would indicate.He said there were probably 25 copies in this state alone.One scarce book I wouldn't mind finding in the VG range is Rangers Comics #14.That's ONE awesome cover! GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

There are currently 12 copies of Namora 1 in the CGC Census compared to 3 of issue 2 and 3 of issue 3. Based on that and prior knowledge, I don't think Namora 1 is the scarce book, much less a 7.

[Timulty]

The problem with using census to gauge scarcity is that, I don't believe the average CGC submitter to be representative of the average collector. I hope that makes sense.

[jimjum12]

I know exactly what you're talking about.When researching relative scarcity using the census,it's difficult to be objective with anything other than the early silver age marvel data(1961-1966),and then only with certain titles that are well represented.The major keys are the ones that seem to have the largest body of evidence.One thing I've noticed is that certain months SEEM to be more scarce in high grade than others.The question is WHY?A good example is September 1963.That month produced X-men # 1,Avengers # 1,ASM # 4,& F.F. #18.All of those are more scarce in high grade than surrounding issues.I do agree with adamstrange about Namora # 2 & 3.They both ought to be 8's IMHO.I guess the problem using the census to gauge scarcity on books known to be scarce is that those are exactly the type of books that collectors would tend to slab if they were only going to slab a few examples of their collection.It is feasable that a higher percentage of scarce books may already be slabbed making it difficult to compare them to others.I really do like this thread and hope to see more posts.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[esquirecomics]

The problem with using census to gauge scarcity is that, I don't believe the average CGC submitter to be representative of the average collector. I hope that makes sense.

 

It makes perfect sense, but it pertains to somewhat a different argument. The census is by no means a true indicator of the number of copies that exist wherever in the world. Your comment is completely accurate so that the census only reflects a minimum number of known copies.

 

What the census is helpful to illustrate is that the perceived relative scarcity of certain books might not be accurate. For example, More Fun #52 is listed as a Gerber "8", i.e., 11-20 copies thought to exist. Yet the census notes 22 (9 unrestored, 13 restored) copies have been certified, and I know of quite a few more that have not been certified. So, that would mean that More Fun #52 is probably more of a Gerber "7". However, one thing to keep in mind is that the census itself is not accurate, which is something I fault CGC on. For some reason they do not correct the census 100% of the time to reflect resubmissions even when they know it. The 6.5 restored copy on the census is actually the same as the unrestored 5.5. So, that makes 21 certified copies. Perhaps some of the other census figures are duplicates also.

 

And, of course, the census works the other way too. Wow #5 has only 3 copies listed. I have the highest graded copy with the 9.2. I wish that meant it was a Gerber "9" or "10", but it is just a regular Gerber "5". Obviously the market just doesn't merit slabbing that particular book, at least not yet!

[jimjum12]

One good way to put the census into proper perspective is to use a hypothetical scenario as an illustration.Let's say there are 50 copies in existence of "Blue Million Action Funnies" # 1,3-10.The # 2 has only 10 copies in existence.Ten different collectors submit their runs for certification so it appears that all ten issues are equally scarce when this is not the case at all.In fact, if one of those collectors is missing #6,it will appear that # 6 is the more scarce.It can be very misleading.The census is a good way to gauge percentages of high grade examples.What you say about updating the census is also true.I know that I break open mid-grade golden age slabs when I get them and I keep the label as an indication of what CGC once certified the book as.I'm sure I'm not the only one who does this.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Timulty]

I am a believer that using the CGC census is only effective in gauging scarcity of CGC certified copies, not as an overall indicator of existing copies. Sure it would be nice if all the GA out there were certified, as an example. But you can only compare it within its own context. An indicator of what people are submitting to CGC. A good example is Captain Marvel Adventures 150. Listed as scarce(Gerber 7) there are only 4( and at less than 7.5) copies certified. I know, that I am sitting with a low grade in my collection. Does that mean, there are only 21 to 50 out there? No. Because of paper quality and level of production we can infer that there are probably 21-50 7.5 and less grade out there. There are at least 2 different copies, I know of that are above 7.5 but have never been submitted. Gerber has its inherent failings but the census is only really applicable to the certified comics population.

[adamstrange]

My initial comment was specifically regarding Namora, a title I have tried to follow.

 

In general, I don't think the Gerber scarcity rankings are very useful as more than a general guide as there are quite a few suspect rankings. First off, Gerber was trying to do a scarcity ranking of 20,000 + books and I just think that one guy is going to have a hard time doing that. Was he looking at the whole market (all grades) and did he have electronic records of every sale, not just auction sales? The only dealer I know with that kind of database is Metropolis.

 

Second, he was basing them off his observation of the market in the 80s and there have been a number of finds since then.

 

Third, his scarcity ranking of romance comics are often the same or lower than the superhero books from the same company at the same time -- I don't think that squares with anyone's experience and is a result of superhero-centrism of the comics market.

 

Fourth, the CGC census can't prove the accuracy of Gerber rankings but it's possible that it would would disprove it. I do understand the re-sub game can make it look like more copies exist than really do, but careful attention to the marketplace is often enough to provide a reasonable correction factor.

 

For me personally, the rankings don't mean much because I collect high grade and the scarcity ranking for the higher grades is not necessarily in proportion to the overall scarcity ranking of the issue (e.g. Gaines File Copies and Harvey File copies skew results).

[esquirecomics]

My initial comment was specifically regarding Namora, a title I have tried to follow.

 

In general, I don't think the Gerber scarcity rankings are very useful as more than a general guide as there are quite a few suspect rankings. First off, Gerber was trying to do a scarcity ranking of 20,000 + books and I just think that one guy is going to have a hard time doing that. Was he looking at the whole market (all grades) and did he have electronic records of every sale, not just auction sales? The only dealer I know with that kind of database is Metropolis.

 

Second, he was basing them off his observation of the market in the 80s and there have been a number of finds since then.

 

Third, his scarcity ranking of romance comics are often the same or lower than the superhero books from the same company at the same time -- I don't think that squares with anyone's experience and is a result of superhero-centrism of the comics market.

 

Fourth, the CGC census can't prove the accuracy of Gerber rankings but it's possible that it would would disprove it. I do understand the re-sub game can make it look like more copies exist than really do, but careful attention to the marketplace is often enough to provide a reasonable correction factor.

 

For me personally, the rankings don't mean much because I collect high grade and the scarcity ranking for the higher grades is not necessarily in proportion to the overall scarcity ranking of the issue (e.g. Gaines File Copies and Harvey File copies skew results).

 

Can't say I really disagree with anything AS has stated here.

 

It would be very interesting to see an updated version of Gerber come out now given the existence of the Internet, GPAnalysis, CGC census and the like.

[tth2]

Fourth, the CGC census can't prove the accuracy of Gerber rankings but it's possible that it would would disprove it. I do understand the re-sub game can make it look like more copies exist than really do, but careful attention to the marketplace is often enough to provide a reasonable correction factor.

[Timulty]

If memory servers, Gerber used his own auction data and data from dealers from the 80's and production #'s to determine scarcity. With the advent of Ebay, books formerly closeted have come out of the woodwork. I submit that the Scarcity Index should have increases added. So, a 7 becomes a 35-64 etc.

[tth2]

I submit that the Scarcity Index should have increases added. So, a 7 becomes a 35-64 etc.

Rather than changing the definition of a category, I would just recategorize the books. So something that was a 7, but a lot of copies have now surfaced, would become a 6 or 5.