What would it REALLY take for the Comic OA market to 'Correct?'

[suspense39]

My son is a HUGE Marvel fan and he is building nostalgia in buckets through movies, video games, cartoons, etc. and I am sure he will love the characters in the future as much as I do now. From nostalgia of the characters … not necessarily from the reading of a comic. Nostalgia will always exist for the blue chip characters. What nostalgia drives you to is another factor. If you have it and like to collect I think you may end up in the same place as those reading the comics. I loved baseball growing up and found myself chasing player cards of guys that had retired before my time. I have Mickey Mantle cards and I have zero nostalgia for him – never saw him play.

 

Well, this is just like my Krazy Kat example. I collect Krazy Kat, which is obviously before my time, but only because I read/collected comics and nostalgia brought me back to collecting back issues and then original art as a young professional (and my interests branched out over time). Likewise, you found yourself chasing Mickey Mantle cards - but only because you got into cards in the first place. If you were a teenager today, you're probably not collecting cards - you're more likely to be playing Fantasy Baseball, watching classic baseball games on one of the thousand cable channels out there, looking up stats and video clips online, etc. If you're even watching baseball at all - 60% of the baseball TV viewing audience is over the age of 55 I recently read!! :whatthe:

 

Similarly, it's clear that the youth generation is getting their comics/hero fix mostly through film, TV, videogames, merchandising, cosplay, social media and other non-comics media these days. It's simply not the same. When you read the source material (the comics), you get every nuance of the stories, you admire the different artistic styles, you see how everything is interconnected. And, even so, the conversion rate of comics collector to OA collector is pretty low. It's only logical that the conversion rate of superhero movie viewer to OA collector is going to be absolutely minuscule. In fact, it's more likely that you'll have to convert people first to the source material and then to OA (as has been the traditional path).

 

I just don't see a natural progression from movie fan to OA collector - how would you even know who the artists are, what the key issues and storylines are, how to even begin looking for the stuff, etc.? It won't make sense unless you become indoctrinated into the comics first. And, so, if movies/TV/other media are the new gateway, then there has to be a conversion to the source material and then another one to OA - the extra step is going to mean a lot of potential collectors never making it to that point. Certainly not enough to make up for the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers, who largely DID grow up with comics, with a good number of us making the conversion to OA collecting.

 

I know a few people who are into Krazy Kat and not really into comics. The Sundays can be pure genius! they can be read from all different directions, up down sideways etc. (Chris Ware has borrowed this) They read as both comics and something akin to a Bosch painting (i'm thinking of garden of Earthly Delights); They really open up to new meanings, thoughts and narratives the more you look at them....they keep giving you more.

I just finished reading A Herriman book which contained a fair amount of strip examples, I always thought of the dailies as kind of straight narrative, boy was i wrong, Herriman plays with many of the same ideas as Brecht, Duchamp, Fontana and Magritte. In the context of this thread, I think Krazy Kat is still undervalued......shoot if anyone wants to trade theirs for some hero art hit me up!

[SquareChaos]

I'm just starting to dip my toe into this hobby and I have to say that the cost of entry is shocking if, as people often state, we seek to purchase nostalgia. I've always known comic art was expensive - you can't be a comic book collector and reader for as long as I have been without encountering a good deal of OA - but to actually start digging in and getting direct exposure... it really is shocking, there is no other way to describe it. If you're just starting out, unless you're very young and only interested in quite recent works, this is a rich person's hobby. I'm sure this is not exactly shocking news to anyone here

 

I am not a 20 something, I am closing in on 40 (this still surprises me), and I am a professional with no debt, a very stable career, and a decent amount of expendable income. The divide I experience is not in all cases one of means, but is instead typically one of rationalization. There are cognitive barriers in price that I am not willing to cross for a page of comic book art that, frankly, has little to no worldly value outside of the way it makes me feel. I don't mean this in a derogatory way, I love the medium, I am moved by holding a page of art in hand, and I know that feeling is the "inherent" value of art. I do believe I will continue to find ways to make that feeling possible, however, I do still feel as if I've arrived too late to the game. I know this must also be no shocking revelation as I know many feel the same about comic book collecting, but the point remains... by most measures I'm in the upper bound of US income earners, and I feel this hobby to be out of reach financially. More to the point, I feel it to be out of reach while still managing to feel responsible about my spending.

 

Where does this leave me? This leaves me purchasing modern original art (yes, including Manhattan Projects!) and obtaining commissions. I'm learning to keep my eye out, I'm learning to bide my time and have patience, but at the same time my own exploration of this corner of comic collecting doesn't make me feel like it's a robust, self sustaining marketplace.

 

My newbie layman's opinion on the future of OA collecting aside, I've enjoyed reading this thread (and generally lurking in this forum) since I generally can't consider my collecting habits without wondering about the economics of it.

 

Your situation/feelings mirror mine almost exactly. (Although I don't own any Manhattan Projects art. Sorry Felix.) My wife and I may not be 1%ers, but we're a heck of a lot closer than most people in the US, and yet I find the price of most of the art I'm interested in to be a complete non-starter. That isn't sour grapes, it's just the reality I live in. So when Gene asks who's going to be buying up all of the great Silver and Bronze Age art when the older collectors start selling in the next 10-20 years, I can proclaim with much authority that it won't be me. And that's coming from someone with both the interest and some semblance of means.

 

 

Yes, that's a good way to flatly say how I feel too - I love the medium and the art and the pursuit, everything about it, but I won't be purchasing those items either due to the incredible cost. I have no idea who will either.

[delekkerste]

I think people can appreciate comic books and comic OA even if exposure to actual comic books is initially limited.

 

I know a few people who are into Krazy Kat and not really into comics. The Sundays can be pure genius! they can be read from all different directions, up down sideways etc. (Chris Ware has borrowed this) They read as both comics and something akin to a Bosch painting (i'm thinking of garden of Earthly Delights); They really open up to new meanings, thoughts and narratives the more you look at them....they keep giving you more.

 

Gents, of course people can be fascinated by and appreciate comic art, even if they have limited exposure to the actual comic books. Non-comics people come over to my house and see Alex Schomburg, George Herriman, James Jean, etc. art on my walls and it's not difficult to appreciate it. That said, my point is that, unless they are indoctrinated into the comic BOOK reading and collecting culture, chances are they will never get enough exposure to all the source material to ever develop a serious interest in collecting the art, or to develop the social and commercial contacts & networks that facilitate a self-reinforcing virtuous circle of collecting behavior.

[IngelsFan]

Since we are already seeing original comic art being exhibited in museums, I would think that a natural progression/by product of ever increasing high prices will be the eventuality that pieces either get donated for a tax write off or museums start competing for the higher quality/historic pieces at auction.

Thoughts?

[delekkerste]

Since we are already seeing original comic art being exhibited in museums, I would think that a natural progression/by product of ever increasing high prices will be the eventuality that pieces either get donated for a tax write off or museums start competing for the higher quality/historic pieces at auction.

Thoughts?

 

Who among us is going to donate art for a tax write-off??? There would have to be a profound change in the collecting culture for that to happen - not many people in the hobby would be willing to leave money on the table. Not to mention, who wants to donate art to a museum that will most likely not ever show it, or, in the best case scenario, a small portion of the donation might be exhibited once every decade or so. People talk about "museum-quality" art, but the fact remains that there aren't permanent exhibitions in any of the major art museums. While some of them might be willing to take your donated/bequeathed art, most will undoubtedly not even want it. It's not like there's going to be an EC art wing in at the Met anytime soon.

 

And, as for the smaller specialty museums that do exhibit comic art frequently, would people really trust that their art wouldn't just get deaccessioned at some point? That their finances are solid enough to make it in the long run (remember Kevin Eastman's museum that folded?) Maybe the Lucas Museum might have some decent prospects, but, even then, let's face it - it's not like they're going to want 99.999% of the art out there (and, who knows if the museum will even be successful anyway). And no way are the major art museums going to be competing for this material at Heritage. Remember, most of the comic art that has made it to museum exhibitions has been single-creator, edgy stuff. Collaborative, in-continuity mainstream artwork has largely not been welcomed - sorry, no major art museum is ever going to care about the first appearance of Deadpool or the Death of Superman. That's just not their bag.

[suspense39]

I think people can appreciate comic books and comic OA even if exposure to actual comic books is initially limited.

 

I know a few people who are into Krazy Kat and not really into comics. The Sundays can be pure genius! they can be read from all different directions, up down sideways etc. (Chris Ware has borrowed this) They read as both comics and something akin to a Bosch painting (i'm thinking of garden of Earthly Delights); They really open up to new meanings, thoughts and narratives the more you look at them....they keep giving you more.

 

Gents, of course people can be fascinated by and appreciate comic art, even if they have limited exposure to the actual comic books. Non-comics people come over to my house and see Alex Schomburg, George Herriman, James Jean, etc. art on my walls and it's not difficult to appreciate it. That said, my point is that, unless they are indoctrinated into the comic BOOK reading and collecting culture, chances are they will never get enough exposure to all the source material to ever develop a serious interest in collecting the art, or to develop the social and commercial contacts & networks that facilitate a self-reinforcing virtuous circle of collecting behavior.

 

I think you're mostly right, but if someone came over and saw the art on the walls and wanted to acquire some for themselves I'm sure you would give them advice, point them in the right direction and introduce them to some contacts, I know I have. "Collectors" those with the collecting gene, would be more inclined to purchase OA ( even if their focus were other things, like art, pop culture artifacts etc.) much more than non collector types. non collector types, in my experience, have a VERY hard time understanding why anyone would spend so much money on such things, even if it's something they appreciate.

[glendgold]

[

 

Who among us is going to donate art for a tax write-off??? There would have to be a profound change in the collecting culture for that to happen - not many people in the hobby would be willing to leave money on the table.

 

Actually I worked a bit with a big-time dealer who has a magnificent collection about donating some of it to a Major Museum. He was fine with leaving money on the table, but as you pointed out in the rest of your post, he was less cool with it being in a basement and eventually deaccessioned.

[Twanj]

This is a fascinating topic, and moreover is very relevant, considering the amount of money some of us have invested (either in cash or because of the appreciation) in these pages

 

I am afraid I side with Gene on the demographics being just too strong a factor in the long term.

 

agreed, with you, Gene, SquareChaos, & rocket1312.

 

the stuff mentioned in the last Felix podcast should be a good wakeup call.

 

I've only been watching this hobby a few short years but if you don't see the bubble coming, well, you've been warned

 

I've got the cash to waste but the way prices have inflated make me want to waste my $ elsewhere on more fun experiences. I buy what I love so if it is worthless one day, no matter. but by the time I wrap my head around a certain piece being 10k it's already 15 or 20k.

 

just like there's a rule of 20-25 for prices appreciating as fans have more disposable income, there's gonna be a rule of 40-45 (?) where things decrease as fans retire or die off.

[DeadpoolJr.]

[

 

Who among us is going to donate art for a tax write-off??? There would have to be a profound change in the collecting culture for that to happen - not many people in the hobby would be willing to leave money on the table.

 

Actually I worked a bit with a big-time dealer who has a magnificent collection about donating some of it to a Major Museum. He was fine with leaving money on the table, but as you pointed out in the rest of your post, he was less cool with it being in a basement and eventually deaccessioned.

I know about one large comic art collection that was donated to the college I attend where they attempted to sell some items, but where stopped after a few had sold, and some going to the library of Congress. Someone reminded them of the agreement that those pieces were only given on the condition that they could not be sold later on. Since then no pieces have come out. I'm thinking of seeing who I have to talk to over there to actually look at some of those items. From what I understand it's all Golden Age stuff, with a large amount being comic strip art like "Little Nemo".

[John E.]

I'm persuaded by the "interest rate" argument. When interest rates are low, investors will park their money in assets. If interest on borrowing shot up, I can see collectors sell off their collection to pay down their debt, simultaneously flooding the market and cutting spending on OA altogether.

 

I also like Gene's astute observation of the demise of comic retailers in the mid-nineties. Before I left for college in 1996, the only two comic shops where I grew up shut down operation. During my college years from 1996-2000, I stopped reading comics and it seems like I didn't miss much. I picked up reading comics again in 2001, just before 9/11 when I heard about ALIAS and the Marvel Max titles. Here's the thing, with the exception of the film BLADE in 1998/99, all comic book movies were stinkers in the 90s. And then along came a spider in 2002. Raimi's SPIDER-MAN proved that comic book movies can be done right and done well. My point is that I could see a 6-year period where those kids who came of age between 1995-2001 without comics in their lives grow up to NOT become OA buyers, thus OA prices begin to contract. However, I then see those kids who came of age during 9/11 and Raimi's SPIDER-MAN and all the Marvel films that came after begin to gobble up OA at low prices, gradually raising demand and prices once again.

 

Many have made the argument for and against the Marvel and DC films as bridges to OA for today's youth. I tend to believe this. Or rather, I tend to believe that it doesn't take a physical comic to get today's kids to become tomorrow's OA buyers. I go to a lot of comic cons here in the Bay Area, as well as "toy shows." These events are chock full of families--I see a lot of Dads bringing their wives, sons and daughters. Dad has a bag full of comic-related toys or plain ol' comics. The kids all have Spider-Man (or whoever) t-shirts. Mom as a Batman hair accessory. These kids incidentally are exposed to comic art. Perhaps they've gotten a free doodle from an artist. Whether they know it or not, these kids have already become OA collectors. And whether they've read Spider-Man or not, in physical form or not, they may grow up to become OA collectors driven not by the nostalgia for the stories (they didn't read), but nostalgia for the family, for the way things used to be.

 

 

[BCarter27]

Didn't we all just see a correction in the PIH auction?

 

Was that correction obfuscated by the strong Heritage auction that followed?

 

Or was that simply a case study in auction psychology (high vs low start bids)?

 

Maybe the Gold and Silver superhero art will maintain pricing simply due to the low supply. But I often wonder who is going to absorb all of the middle-tier Bronze art in about 15 years. And I think that's how long it will take Bronze age collectors to start selling off en masse. So this doomsday scenario may take a long while to play out.

 

There are definitely artists who I've put on my "out of reach" list, but who might come back down later. But it's really hard to see that day in light of today's prices. Maybe I will live long enough to afford a Wrightson Frankenstein plate after all?

[staffman]

Didn't we all just see a correction in the PIH auction?

 

Was that correction obfuscated by the strong Heritage auction that followed?

 

Or was that simply a case study in auction psychology (high vs low start bids)?

 

Maybe the Gold and Silver superhero art will maintain pricing simply due to the low supply. But I often wonder who is going to absorb all of the middle-tier Bronze art in about 15 years. And I think that's how long it will take Bronze age collectors to start selling off en masse. So this doomsday scenario may take a long while to play out.

 

There are definitely artists who I've put on my "out of reach" list, but who might come back down later. But it's really hard to see that day in light of today's prices. Maybe I will live long enough to afford a Wrightson Frankenstein plate after all?

 

I don't know if we saw a price correction in the PIH auction. That was pretty much a "here's the price" if you want it kind of auction more than a true auction with pieces that were listed at or over what the true FMV was for them in my opinion. With the prices already being pretty high and you add on all of the fees and taxes on top of the listed prices, you have a pretty lackluster sale that is going to happen. Not much action on the floor also contributes to no one getting into a heated battle over a piece.

 

I don't think we are seeing anything go down for a while yet, when you look at inventory that sits and just climbs in price every year. I think some of the prices are due to people not budging on what they want back from the piece. How many times do you see something in auction with a reserve set on it or when you try to make a deal with a fellow collector and the price they want is nothing they will move on. To me that leads back to the perceived value to the owner is always going to be higher in price than to the one seeking the piece out.

 

Plus we have to consider the one thing that makes this different than most of the other hobbies. There is only one of this item. Period. With that in mind you have to ask yourself if you really want it and can you justify laying down that money then you will have the only item of that ever. That may keep prices high for a while on coveted pieces. Possibly longer than we will be here to sustain the market for it due to its relevance to history/desirability/etc.

[Pete Marino]

I don't think as much of a correction is coming as much as a shift in what's considered "grail" level.

 

A new generation of collectors is coming in that values things much differently than the old guard.

 

when we start seeing early Deadpool pages (by Liefeld) thrashing Kirby FF pages on a regular basis we'll know it's shifted fully.

 

I also think the stuff that's going to sustain is the story / non superhero focused titles. Sandman is the gold standard there IMO. But things like Walking Dead, Y:The Last Man, Preacher, and because i'm a fan of it i'll add in Mind MGMT.

[comix4fun]

Where does this leave me? This leaves me purchasing modern original art (yes, including Manhattan Projects!) and obtaining commissions.

 

It also leaves you in some fairly exclusive company!

 

 

 

 

What's that thing Albert's doing with his face? I don't know if I've see that before.

[Doc Joe]

1. Deadpool rocks

2. Kirby is overrated except for my cover which rocks

3. When I did a display of art at the local con..the kids and younger grown ups glossed over the astoundingly wonderful pieces that are worth gazillions in my own mind..and flocked to Deadpool, Gambit and some other stuff (cant remember) that was more 'modern'.

 

Many looked completely bewildered at what they were looking at, I had comics on the table in front of the display and that attracted the attention more than on the walls.

 

Different strokes for different folks.

 

If you are doing a hobby as an investment is it really a hobby? Maybe I should be worried about losing money but if I buy something for 25K and sell it down the road for 20K this makes no material difference in my life (lucky me!). I am hoping it all levels out...have had comics I paid 10K for now worth 5K, comics I paid 1K for now worth 300$, comics I paid 17K for now worth 80-90K. etc the few big wins I am hoping somewhat cancel out the loses...I'm too scared to actually tally everything up. (not art I know but I have not really sold art; with some pieces a friend told me, I don't know what you paid, I said it begins with a 1, he said it now begins with a 2, so I know some things have gone up)

 

If you think the market for OA is small....check out the market for 2000AD OA! There are literally like 4 of us paying silly money for seriously cool but mainly nostalgic pieces. Well maybe 3 of us. I know I will not make money on those pieces but there are going no where; burn them on my viking burial boat; hey are going no where, they are for me and they mean much more than any money.

 

Its going to take a lot for me to sell. I have sold I think 3 pieces of art and I did not really like any of them. (They were part of a package sort of deal).

 

Anyway; as I am fond of saying , auction prices are like a San Francisco Bath House; it just takes two guys with a bit of passion and magic can happen. To keep the prices up you need 3 people. Its not that many to keep prices up, especially if the owner of the piece may be in the bidding too

[Peter G]

OA that was $150 in the 1980s became "ridiculously" expensive at $4,500 in 1999 but today the same art is easily selling for $45,000. I don't see this trend stopping if for no other reason that the numbers on the price-tag have become meaningless. People are speculating and it has nothing to do with underlying incomes to support the purchases. Throw in Fed money printing and low interest rates and the sky is the limit !

 

------

 

Gekko: It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a Zero Sum game - somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply, transferred - from one perception to another. Like magic. This painting here? I bought it ten years ago for sixty thousand dollars, I could sell it today for six hundred. The illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at it's finest.

 

Bud: How much is enough, Gordon?

 

Gekko: The richest one percent of this country owns half our country's wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and insufficiently_thoughtful_person sons; And what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It's wildly_fanciful_statement. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing. I own.

[Bronty]

San Francisco bath house

[Twanj]

Anyway; as I am fond of saying , auction prices are like a San Francisco Bath House; it just takes two guys with a bit of passion and magic can happen. To keep the prices up you need 3 people. Its not that many to keep prices up, especially if the owner of the piece may be in the bidding too

 

so you're saying it takes not just one but two guys for you to keep it up?

[JadeGiant]

I find all of this type of discussion really fascinating but I really struggle to understand why. I don’t really care all that much what happens in the art market or the future value of my art because I work really hard to make sure I keep this a hobby and not view it as investment (went down that road with comics and cards in the early 90’s and we know how that went). I am a 100% buyer and I pace myself according to what I can afford. I really enjoy the hobby, even with all the pitfalls and shenanigans. I don’t see a bubble bursting or the market crashing but, if I am being honest, from a narrow perspective I think I would actually like to see it happen as I could buy more art at lowered prices. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants. I suppose that I would just like to have my cake and eat it too … let the market come back down to earth a bit and settle in/plateau for a while (and all Hulk art become really cheap). Is that too much to ask?

[Peter G]

. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants.

 

+1

 

The rate of credit expansion by the Central banks is likely the most important factor in shaping the OA narrative going forward