What would it REALLY take for the Comic OA market to 'Correct?'

[Hekla]

... I work really hard to make sure I keep this a hobby and not view it as investment ...

 

I agree in theory but it's very hard to NOT view as an investment when some pieces are a real percentage of income, even if it's discretionary spending. That being said, I believe that many collectors (not just OA) rationalize purchases as an investment although they may never intend to sell.

[JadeGiant]

... I work really hard to make sure I keep this a hobby and not view it as investment ...

 

I agree in theory but it's very hard to NOT view as an investment when some pieces are a real percentage of income, even if it's discretionary spending. That being said, I believe that many collectors (not just OA) rationalize purchases as an investment although they may never intend to sell.

 

I agree with this 100%. My buying has increased in the last year plus to levels that I HAVE to think about it but I look at it like this: If I buy something over a certain dollar amount, how much will I really enjoy the piece and how will I feel if I don’t buy it. I usually give at least a 24 hour period and then make a decision. I have to like a piece enough to be OK with it in my portfolio or on my wall so much so that it dropping in half doesn’t have any impact on my appreciation of the piece (I have heard this or something along these lines on Felix’s podcast and it rings true with me). If I start to find myself creeping into a higher percentage of my income than I am comfortable, I do not buy the art as that is no longer a hobby (at least for me). I am also selling off other collectible items to offset cost so I suppose I am not really 100% buyer (in art yes, but overall no). I don’t think it is even a question that some people rationalize larger purchases with the investment logic. I think we all fall into this type of thinking, the question is do you act upon it.

[SquareChaos]

. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants.

 

+1

 

The rate of credit expansion by the Central banks is likely the most important factor in shaping the OA narrative going forward

 

What number of collectors would be considered credit / savings based collectors? I never buy something I can't pay cash for (I'm a small fry), that's one of my main rationalizations, and I've always assumed others just like me, purchasing $500 - $2000 pieces, are far more the norm than someone ponying up thousands more for a coveted item. Just like it is in slabs, or raw book collecting, or... well, anything else. Isn't that the case with OA as well? Or are you saying that, how goes the large key pieces of art, so will go the rest of the hobby?

[Peter G]

. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants.

 

+1

 

The rate of credit expansion by the Central banks is likely the most important factor in shaping the OA narrative going forward

 

What number of collectors would be considered credit / savings based collectors? I never buy something I can't pay cash for (I'm a small fry), that's one of my main rationalizations, and I've always assumed others just like me, purchasing $500 - $2000 pieces, are far more the norm than someone ponying up thousands more for a coveted item. Just like it is in slabs, or raw book collecting, or... well, anything else. Isn't that the case with OA as well? Or are you saying that, how goes the large key pieces of art, so will go the rest of the hobby?

 

In my Austrian view of the world - inflation is always a monetary phenomena. As such, I believe the rate of increase in the money supply is the greatest factor as to why OA has been going up in value. Several comments on this thread related to 0% interest rates confirm these suspicions.

 

As regards the individual motivations or the means by which some "speculators" (collectors/investors) make their individual purchasing decisions, I could not say. Nor do I think it is necessary to understand the individual reasons or the financial means of individual participants to attempt to forecast the future direction of the OA market as a whole.

 

In a larger context - I do believe that the entire "market" for OA is shaped by the perceptions of all participants and their general sentiments about the effects of inflation on OA prices. Prices get ratcheted upwards when others validate the increasingly higher price points. I think big OA sales and small OA sales alike are both being used as comps to sway overall OA perceptions upwards.

 

Whether this upwards bias in market participant perception will be validated in the long run (or not) I think will depend on the continued rate of inflation (increase in the money supply)

 

This is to say nothing about the quality of a piece. That is, whether purchasing power will be "saved" by purchasing McFarlane Spider-man art or Windsor McCay Little Nemo. That is a completely different discussion. Predicting the continued demand schedule of an individual OA piece is uncertain due to the multiple of factors involved. I could not say whether a Marvel team Up cover by John Romta Jr. is over valued or undervalued today at $15,000 because I don;t know the purchasing power of a currency in the future, the disposable income that may/may not be directed at such a Marvel Team Up cover by a John Romita Jr. fan in the future or the general state of the future economy, waning demographics, etc etc..

 

I think when people say "buy the best of the best" it is a catch all way of saying that demand will be relatively constant even taking into account a broader downturn in the general economy or the OA market.

 

The idea being that the "best of the best" pieces maintain value due to their historical significance and a resiliency to changing demographics or economic conditions.

 

 

[pinupcartoonguy]

Where does this leave me? This leaves me purchasing modern original art (yes, including Manhattan Projects!) and obtaining commissions.

 

It also leaves you in some fairly exclusive company!

 

 

 

 

What's that thing Albert's doing with his face? I don't know if I've see that before.

 

You mean smile?!

[zhamlau]

Pages that were 5 dollars when I was first buying are now sometimes 2000, Ditko Spideys were 500-1000 now they can hit 100k.

 

Generally pieces are worth on the whole what, 5000% more from 1986 to 2016?

 

Is a marketplace in trouble when on average all items in theory have increased 50x in price in 30 years? That's the question.

 

Can anyone else think of a marketplace/range of items for sale that have across the board gone up 5000% in 30 years and show no sign of stopping? Not one single item but all items when averaged out? Are those stable markets long term (if they even exist outside comic art)?

 

10 dollar pages are now 500, 1000 dollar pages are 50-100k+

 

I'm not trying to be doom and gloom here, not at all. I see it going up from here. But the logic behind it i have a hard time with. Unless someone else can think of some field/market/collectable where across the board all items have gone up 50X value in 30 years, it would be hard to say this is completely naturally occurring, you know? When you factor that in, man the outlook long term looks suspect (to me anyway).

 

To be fair I often times feel that way about our entire global economy and way of life. In the US in particular our economy looks like its built on smoke and mirrors being propped up by an ever dwindling supply of responsible capable adults who know this is all melting down but are denying it to some degree...oh well.

 

 

[suspense39]

Pages that were 5 dollars when I was first buying are now sometimes 2000, Ditko Spideys were 500-1000 now they can hit 100k.

 

Generally pieces are worth on the whole what, 5000% more from 1986 to 2016?

 

Is a marketplace in trouble when on average all items in theory have increased 50x in price in 30 years? That's the question.

 

Can anyone else think of a marketplace/range of items for sale that have across the board gone up 5000% in 30 years and show no sign of stopping? Not one single item but all items when averaged out? Are those stable markets long term (if they even exist outside comic art)?

 

10 dollar pages are now 500, 1000 dollar pages are 50-100k+

 

I'm not trying to be doom and gloom here, not at all. I see it going up from here. But the logic behind it i have a hard time with. Unless someone else can think of some field/market/collectable where across the board all items have gone up 50X value in 30 years, it would be hard to say this is completely naturally occurring, you know? When you factor that in, man the outlook long term looks suspect (to me anyway).

 

To be fair I often times feel that way about our entire global economy and way of life. In the US in particular our economy looks like its built on smoke and mirrors being propped up by an ever dwindling supply of responsible capable adults who know this is all melting down but are denying it to some degree...oh well.

 

 

that is a pretty fast pace of acceleration in prices to be sure! And no way they are going to go up another 50X in the next 30 years, but that doesn't mean they wont go up, at this point if they went up 2X on some of the higher priced art, that's still a chunk of change.

[SquareChaos]

. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants.

 

+1

 

The rate of credit expansion by the Central banks is likely the most important factor in shaping the OA narrative going forward

 

What number of collectors would be considered credit / savings based collectors? I never buy something I can't pay cash for (I'm a small fry), that's one of my main rationalizations, and I've always assumed others just like me, purchasing $500 - $2000 pieces, are far more the norm than someone ponying up thousands more for a coveted item. Just like it is in slabs, or raw book collecting, or... well, anything else. Isn't that the case with OA as well? Or are you saying that, how goes the large key pieces of art, so will go the rest of the hobby?

 

In my Austrian view of the world - inflation is always a monetary phenomena. As such, I believe the rate of increase in the money supply is the greatest factor as to why OA has been going up in value. Several comments on this thread related to 0% interest rates confirm these suspicions.

 

As regards the individual motivations or the means by which some "speculators" (collectors/investors) make their individual purchasing decisions, I could not say. Nor do I think it is necessary to understand the individual reasons or the financial means of individual participants to attempt to forecast the future direction of the OA market as a whole.

 

In a larger context - I do believe that the entire "market" for OA is shaped by the perceptions of all participants and their general sentiments about the effects of inflation on OA prices. Prices get ratcheted upwards when others validate the increasingly higher price points. I think big OA sales and small OA sales alike are both being used as comps to sway overall OA perceptions upwards.

 

Whether this upwards bias in market participant perception will be validated in the long run (or not) I think will depend on the continued rate of inflation (increase in the money supply)

 

This is to say nothing about the quality of a piece. That is, whether purchasing power will be "saved" by purchasing McFarlane Spider-man art or Windsor McCay Little Nemo. That is a completely different discussion. Predicting the continued demand schedule of an individual OA piece is uncertain due to the multiple of factors involved. I could not say whether a Marvel team Up cover by John Romta Jr. is over valued or undervalued today at $15,000 because I don;t know the purchasing power of a currency in the future, the disposable income that may/may not be directed at such a Marvel Team Up cover by a John Romita Jr. fan in the future or the general state of the future economy, waning demographics, etc etc..

 

I think when people say "buy the best of the best" it is a catch all way of saying that demand will be relatively constant even taking into account a broader downturn in the general economy or the OA market.

 

The idea being that the "best of the best" pieces maintain value due to their historical significance and a resiliency to changing demographics or economic conditions.

 

 

Thanks for the response. I better understand your stance due to it's Austrian underpinnings. That isn't an economic viewpoint I share so it makes sense was scratching my head a bit.

 

My very simple, perhaps too simple take, is that the cost of entry is far too high. Most new collectors will likely take their main spending money elsewhere, and perhaps casually collect OA. Slabs are lacking in many ways, but due to their multiple nature, wide range of grades (and therefore price points) for a given book, and easier accessibility it's more forgiving to different income levels. And really, that's what we're talking about - various barriers to entry.

[Hekla]

 

My very simple, perhaps too simple take, is that the cost of entry is far too high. Most new collectors will likely take their main spending money elsewhere, and perhaps casually collect OA. Slabs are lacking in many ways, but due to their multiple nature, wide range of grades (and therefore price points) for a given book, and easier accessibility it's more forgiving to different income levels. And really, that's what we're talking about - various barriers to entry.

 

I think there are several OA late-comers like myself that are selling their comic collections, also currently at high prices, to buy into the OA market. I've sold 3 NM98's and 2 BA12's over the last year to supplement my OA funds... once you get over the hurdle of letting comics go, it gets easier to trim your collection.

[delekkerste]

I know a lot of people here rarely/never visit Comics General, but there is another debate raging over there regarding the long-term future of the comic book market which touches upon many of the same issues:

 

The Future of Comic Book Collecting & Investing

[SquareChaos]

 

My very simple, perhaps too simple take, is that the cost of entry is far too high. Most new collectors will likely take their main spending money elsewhere, and perhaps casually collect OA. Slabs are lacking in many ways, but due to their multiple nature, wide range of grades (and therefore price points) for a given book, and easier accessibility it's more forgiving to different income levels. And really, that's what we're talking about - various barriers to entry.

 

I think there are several OA late-comers like myself that are selling their comic collections, also currently at high prices, to buy into the OA market. I've sold 3 NM98's and 2 BA12's over the last year to supplement my OA funds... once you get over the hurdle of letting comics go, it gets easier to trim your collection.

 

 

I think your story is one of the few entry points remaining. Even better if the seller was able to move high grade SA keys considering the costs.

[JadeGiant]

Pages that were 5 dollars when I was first buying are now sometimes 2000, Ditko Spideys were 500-1000 now they can hit 100k.

 

Generally pieces are worth on the whole what, 5000% more from 1986 to 2016?

 

Is a marketplace in trouble when on average all items in theory have increased 50x in price in 30 years? That's the question.

 

These stories never cease to amaze me. I just can’t wrap my head around how easy it was to get top tier stuff back in the early days of the hobby. As such, the growth in that period is not going to be duplicated. I don’t think anyone would predict that. I don’t follow other hobbies but I have to wonder about baseball cards, etc. and think there has to be parallel hobbies that had an early period where prices skyrocketed.

[Peter G]

. On a broader level, I think that this happening would be a ripple effect from a much larger economic downturn and that is not something anybody wants.

 

+1

 

The rate of credit expansion by the Central banks is likely the most important factor in shaping the OA narrative going forward

 

What number of collectors would be considered credit / savings based collectors? I never buy something I can't pay cash for (I'm a small fry), that's one of my main rationalizations, and I've always assumed others just like me, purchasing $500 - $2000 pieces, are far more the norm than someone ponying up thousands more for a coveted item. Just like it is in slabs, or raw book collecting, or... well, anything else. Isn't that the case with OA as well? Or are you saying that, how goes the large key pieces of art, so will go the rest of the hobby?

 

In my Austrian view of the world - inflation is always a monetary phenomena. As such, I believe the rate of increase in the money supply is the greatest factor as to why OA has been going up in value. Several comments on this thread related to 0% interest rates confirm these suspicions.

 

As regards the individual motivations or the means by which some "speculators" (collectors/investors) make their individual purchasing decisions, I could not say. Nor do I think it is necessary to understand the individual reasons or the financial means of individual participants to attempt to forecast the future direction of the OA market as a whole.

 

In a larger context - I do believe that the entire "market" for OA is shaped by the perceptions of all participants and their general sentiments about the effects of inflation on OA prices. Prices get ratcheted upwards when others validate the increasingly higher price points. I think big OA sales and small OA sales alike are both being used as comps to sway overall OA perceptions upwards.

 

Whether this upwards bias in market participant perception will be validated in the long run (or not) I think will depend on the continued rate of inflation (increase in the money supply)

 

This is to say nothing about the quality of a piece. That is, whether purchasing power will be "saved" by purchasing McFarlane Spider-man art or Windsor McCay Little Nemo. That is a completely different discussion. Predicting the continued demand schedule of an individual OA piece is uncertain due to the multiple of factors involved. I could not say whether a Marvel team Up cover by John Romta Jr. is over valued or undervalued today at $15,000 because I don;t know the purchasing power of a currency in the future, the disposable income that may/may not be directed at such a Marvel Team Up cover by a John Romita Jr. fan in the future or the general state of the future economy, waning demographics, etc etc..

 

I think when people say "buy the best of the best" it is a catch all way of saying that demand will be relatively constant even taking into account a broader downturn in the general economy or the OA market.

 

The idea being that the "best of the best" pieces maintain value due to their historical significance and a resiliency to changing demographics or economic conditions.

 

 

Thanks for the response. I better understand your stance due to it's Austrian underpinnings. That isn't an economic viewpoint I share so it makes sense was scratching my head a bit.

 

My very simple, perhaps too simple take, is that the cost of entry is far too high. Most new collectors will likely take their main spending money elsewhere, and perhaps casually collect OA. Slabs are lacking in many ways, but due to their multiple nature, wide range of grades (and therefore price points) for a given book, and easier accessibility it's more forgiving to different income levels. And really, that's what we're talking about - various barriers to entry.

 

I do not think that most OA purchases are supported based on the average disposable incomes of the participants. Rather most purchases are funded via sales of other assets or access to credit(debt)

 

As such - I do not believe that the cost of entry can ever be too high. Certainly, fundamentals have nothing to do with purchasing a piece of OA. Where there is a will, there is always a way.

 

Mind you, I am not saying this is a smart purchasing strategy. Nor am i saying it is a bad purchasing strategy. I am merely saying that is the reality. And there are various price points along the entire OA spectrum for all the participants. Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

I am an Austrian but I am living in a Keynesian world. And these central banks seem intent on printing gobs of money.

 

We live in interesting times.

 

 

 

 

[Eric Seffinga]

Since we are already seeing original comic art being exhibited in museums, I would think that a natural progression/by product of ever increasing high prices will be the eventuality that pieces either get donated for a tax write off or museums start competing for the higher quality/historic pieces at auction.

Thoughts?

 

Who among us is going to donate art for a tax write-off??? There would have to be a profound change in the collecting culture for that to happen - not many people in the hobby would be willing to leave money on the table. Not to mention, who wants to donate art to a museum that will most likely not ever show it, or, in the best case scenario, a small portion of the donation might be exhibited once every decade or so. People talk about "museum-quality" art, but the fact remains that there aren't permanent exhibitions in any of the major art museums. While some of them might be willing to take your donated/bequeathed art, most will undoubtedly not even want it. It's not like there's going to be an EC art wing in at the Met anytime soon.

 

And, as for the smaller specialty museums that do exhibit comic art frequently, would people really trust that their art wouldn't just get deaccessioned at some point? That their finances are solid enough to make it in the long run (remember Kevin Eastman's museum that folded?) Maybe the Lucas Museum might have some decent prospects, but, even then, let's face it - it's not like they're going to want 99.999% of the art out there (and, who knows if the museum will even be successful anyway). And no way are the major art museums going to be competing for this material at Heritage. Remember, most of the comic art that has made it to museum exhibitions has been single-creator, edgy stuff. Collaborative, in-continuity mainstream artwork has largely not been welcomed - sorry, no major art museum is ever going to care about the first appearance of Deadpool or the Death of Superman. That's just not their bag.

 

^ 100% agree with all of this reasoning.

 

[JadeGiant]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high. For some sure, but my experience has been that the vast majority of people enter the hobby with a toe-in-the-water approach and move upward from there. As such, entry is actually easy as there are all kinds of price points available to feed the addiction. Nostalgia is a key part of the formula for me entering the hobby but I was able to scratch that itch through commissions and cheaper pages when I started. I didn’t feel like I needed the cover to my favorite issues on day one (and still don’t). I bought in low and worked up to nice panel pages, splashes, and covers, etc. I think that this is the general way it works for most people. And I didn’t sell anything to fund art purchases. I did curtail other spending to shift toward art but my collection has been built via cash purchases – I buy according to the fun money I have available. I am 10 years in the hobby and just recently started considering/planning to sell off some items for larger purchases. So, my collection may get a boost going forward from some sell-offs but it was built on cash (no credit) purchases. That is the standard I have to put on myself to keep the hobby a hobby and still fun. Note: I am not at the deep end of the pool and not spending vehicle/mortgage type amounts on pages so I won’t be moving the meter on the high end of the market.

[Peter G]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

[Ironmandrd]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

[Peter G]

Who is to say that 75k for a Sal Buscema Avengers cover is a good deal or not ? Certainly not me. Although the future will assign whether that was a bargain or a rip off.

 

FYI--that Sal Buscema Avengers cover did not sell at $76k (so no one following the auction thought it was a good deal at that price).

 

My example was just a hypothetical

 

That said - There are indeed actual examples that have sold north of 75k

 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/sal-buscema-and-sam-grainger-avengers-72-cover-original-art-marvel-1970-/a/7097-92053.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

[SquareChaos]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

[Peter G]

I don’t buy in (pun intended) to the notion that entry into the hobby is too high.

 

Me neither

 

There seem to be price points for everybody

 

As I previously said, I'm new, and I still have a great deal to learn, but I'd have to disagree. Because of that disagreement, I'd suggest that we simply have different views on reasonable / responsible hobby spending. And that's perfectly fine, it's all subjective.

 

Most likely, unless I fall unexpectedly into a giant pile of cash, I'll just play on the edges of this hobby and spend a few thousand dollars here and there.

 

Friendly disagreement is never a problem for me. As you said, its all subjective. And besides, its not like I don't see your perspective, I disagree with it but I do see the other side.

 

I think maybe your use of the word "hobby" underlies the difference in our opinion. I see comic books and OA as big business. Mind you, I don't necessarily think that is the best perspective for the health of the hobby. It would be nicer if we lived in a kinder and gentler world where everything wasn't always about dollars and cents. But it just seems that isn't the way us humans are hard wired.

 

It just takes a few bad apples to make it all about money. And before you know it, thats all everybody is talking about.