Joshua Middleton Nyx #3 Cover...Next HA Auction 2 2

[NinjaSealed]

5 minutes ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

Perhaps a better comparable would be Carnage as a derivative of Venom and X-23 as a derivative of Wolverine.  Carnage had huge exposure in it's day. What nostalgia is there for NYX? What kind of print run did it have? Relatively low on both accounts  I'd wager. Two fools can bid anything up, but eliminate one of them, the real test of value is what % of the max bid does #3-5 bidder reveal? 

Carnage is another great example as well. I didn't bring him up because he has a "clouded" 1st appearance buildup. Then again I guess you could say Harley and X-23 do to both having pre comic appearances(something that the market appears to ignore).

[exitmusicblue]

3 hours ago, delekkerste said:

It can't have been that difficult (financially speaking) to corner the X-23 market if it didn't include NYX #3 and/or #4, though, right?

I also think there are less rich crazies out there than you might think, and I say that as someone who has both bought and sold a number of key 1st appearance covers and pages.   

Nope. X-23 has headlined/been on a lot of covers and in a loooooooooot of issues... many long-time collectors I think are still catching up to the sheer extent of her popularity.

As for the "rich crazies," I don't refer to those who spend anticipated $$$ on classic 1st app. covers/pages as crazy.  They're just loaded.  For crazy, you've got to bid up pieces to beyond doubters' projections.  This I've seen in many hobbies (baseball card hobbyists know Omar Vizuel supercollectors to be straight insane).

Everything about this girl is hype.  This thread, the long-arse thread in our Modern section, the movie, the believers and non-believers.  And I've seen what hype can do in any hobby.*  In fact, the presence of skeptics -- if not in the clear majority -- can conversely fuel greater speculation among risk-takers.

*Lacking a crystal ball, I won't go so far as to say whatever this OA sells for will sustain, drop, or go up in the future.  Depends on way too many factors, esp. her future presence in Modern comics (a variable to which many more established chars are less beholden).

Edited March 13, 2017 by exitmusicblue

[Brian Peck]

3 hours ago, NinjaSealed said:

Again I ask to look at the spread between Trimpe Hulk 180/181 values vs his average or even best other work. It doesn't translate. Same thing for the BA12 cover. Also, I honestly thing it is a generational thing, because I don't know a collector who WOULDN'T know that cover.

Trimpe Hulk 180/181 is something very special a character that has been around for over 40 years and has a huge following of older and younger collectors. That issues and the character has a HUGE nostalgia factor. Light years beyond the X-23 knock-off.

[Brian Peck]

2 hours ago, NinjaSealed said:

That $6-8k is almost entirely based on the fact that it is the first shot of Mr. Sinister don't you think? It has very little to do with UXM main run/being Silvestri when the quality and "cool factor" of the art are taken into account.  Mr. Sinister is not even in the top 30? characters developed since the late 80's and a crappy image of him is pulling $8k? I think it stands to reason a character like X-23, or especially Harley who also first appears on a great cover is going to have a value of multiples of that.

I think it has alot to do with the artist Silvestri art does have its fan base and you dont see alot of his X-Men art out on the market. Its the nostalgia factor as well, collectors remember reading Silvestri during that time many were exposed to him on X-Men.

[MyNameIsLegion]

we're also ignoring the rule of 25. NYX is barely a dozen years old. Millennial's don't have  100K to urinate away on something so insignificant.  Nothing in the last 15 years is likely to hit 100K given current macro-economic trends and changes in the comic collecting medium and modern art. (Felix bait) 

Edited March 13, 2017 by MYNAMEISLEGION

[exitmusicblue]

100k is crazy.  That said, many age arguments in comics deserve their own shower o' gold.   I'm a GA-lovin' 33-year-old.  Those who grew up reading PCH are either in their late 60s or 70s or dead, yet the market continues to thrive.

I'm positive not all stodgy old Wolvie diehards are dismissive of X-23; I personally know fans my age and older with bank.

Edited March 13, 2017 by exitmusicblue

[MyNameIsLegion]

correction, I was confusing the discussion of 100k for BA12 and NYX.  The number thrown around for NYX is half that, which is still multiples of ridiculous.

 

But "OLD" Wolvie diehards, are by definition, old.  Who has nostalgia for stuff that came out when they are in the 20's-30's or 40's?  You may like stuff, you may appreciate stuff, but it takes time and distance and the impressionable eye of youth to build real nostalgia.

Edited March 13, 2017 by MYNAMEISLEGION

[Doc Joe]

I was excited when I saw the headline that this would be auctioned, but for me its just not a very compelling piece of art. That can happen a lot these days where you see an amazing cover and the OA really does not have much to it, its all the computers after the fact. No idea what it will go for but again its just not that interesting a piece artistically 

[Doc McCoy]

I'm thinking it may go between $10,000 and $12,500 based solely on the fact that it's the first appearance of X-23.  Trying to compare this first appearance with Sinister or Venom is pure folly.  Silvestri and McFarlane's built in audiences already add to the prices of those pieces before they even hit the market.  They are established artists, known for stand-out runs on those individual series.  I've know Middleton's work since he did Meridian over at CrossGen, but it's not something I would clamor for after seeing his process.   His printed cover work is often beautiful, but seeing his initial art, it's just aided too much by digital enhancement.  

[Dick O.]

10 hours ago, NinjaSealed said:

It may be fun to throw out a bunch of recent "comps" for 1st app. work to see how crazy some of this stuff has went for recently

Here's a shameless plug for my article on prices of 1st Appearance OA:

https://comicbookinvest.com/2016/12/30/first-appearances/

 

Ironically, I predicted a few weeks before the Nyx #3 cover was listed on HA that the OA would go for $20k, assuming Logan was a hit. It is, so I'm sticking with my $20k prediction!

[NinjaSealed]

9 hours ago, Brian Peck said:

Trimpe Hulk 180/181 is something very special a character that has been around for over 40 years and has a huge following of older and younger collectors. That issues and the character has a HUGE nostalgia factor. Light years beyond the X-23 knock-off.

I'm just saying that when something is being viewed as key iconic, comps don't matter at all. Look at the Mark Bright Wolverine/Spidey cover. The nostalgia factor blew the doors off what everyone was anticipating.

[NinjaSealed]

8 hours ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

 

9 hours ago, Brian Peck said:

I think it has alot to do with the artist Silvestri art does have its fan base and you dont see alot of his X-Men art out on the market. Its the nostalgia factor as well, collectors remember reading Silvestri during that time many were exposed to him on X-Men.

I like his art a lot(during my nostalgic period) and Mr. Sinister is a nostalgic character for me, but I wasn't interested in the piece because it was a giant head shot with gnarly teeth. If that was the same piece for a non important character I don't think it goes much higher than 1k.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, NinjaSealed said:

I'm just saying that when something is being viewed as key iconic, comps don't matter at all. Look at the Mark Bright Wolverine/Spidey cover. The nostalgia factor blew the doors off what everyone was anticipating.

I certainly agree with the nostalgia comment, and so does everyone else here with way more experience in the hobby than me... but the point is how many people are both deeply nostalgic about the (unfortunately underwhelming) OA for a cover released around a dozen years ago that also have the expendable cash to go after it? They are definitely out there, but I think it's a small crowd. And as they say, it only takes two or three people to drive up a price.

[NinjaSealed]

9 hours ago, MYNAMEISLEGION said:

we're also ignoring the rule of 25. NYX is barely a dozen years old. Millennial's don't have  100K to urinate away on something so insignificant.  Nothing in the last 15 years is likely to hit 100K given current macro-economic trends and changes in the comic collecting medium and modern art. (Felix bait) 

Rule of 25 will pretty much cease to exist as far as print comics go pretty soon. Adults read comics not kids. I was trying to find a suitable book for my nephews to read last weekend and EVERY book I pulled out has something so adult there was no way I could let them read it. Look what people spend on Hush art. That market isn't millennials that read Hush as a kid. Look at what people are spending for Capullo Batman art. Childhood nostalgia means nothing to new art.

[NinjaSealed]

5 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

I certainly agree with the nostalgia comment, and so does everyone else here with way more experience in the hobby than me... but the point is how many people are both deeply nostalgic about the (unfortunately underwhelming) OA for a cover released around a dozen years ago that also have the expendable cash to go after it? They are definitely out there, but I think it's a small crowd. And as they say, it only takes two or three people to drive up a price.

A small crowd as a percent of the OA market, sure. Do I think there are more than a few people who would actually PAY $60k for that cover? Hell no.  You don't need nostalgia for this piece. That is only 1(although probably the biggest) driver of OA prices. It's the 1st app. status that will drive it.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, NinjaSealed said:

A small crowd as a percent of the OA market, sure. Do I think there are more than a few people who would actually PAY $60k for that cover? Hell no.  You don't need nostalgia for this piece. That is only 1(although probably the biggest) driver of OA prices. It's the 1st app. status that will drive it.

Sure, I don't doubt that. I just don't see much reason why it should go for more than my gut instinct of <= $15k. I think that is actually a great price considering everything.

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it went for considerably more 

[delekkerste]

What are the biggest confirmed sales of OA published from 2000-present?  That excludes things like 1st Gambit, 1st Deadpool, Killing Joke, Watchmen, McSpidey, etc. from the late '80s/early '90s...almost all of which are being bought primarily by 40 and 50-something Gen Xers anyway.  What are the biggest sales of art released in the 2000s and 2010s, where 20 and 30-somethings may legitimately compromise a majority (or at least a very significant chunk) of the fanbase?  

Looking at the Heritage archives, it looks like the highest priced pieces from this timeframe that have hit their auction block are a couple of Jim Lee Hush pieces that both sold for $35,850, and a Watterson/Pastis "Pearls Before Swine" comic strip that was auctioned off for charity for the same amount.  After that, it's a long drop down to a Miller DKR 20th Anniversary Edition piece at $21,510, and then nothing else above $20K from the past 17 years.  

Now, I know the TWD #19 sold for a pretty healthy sum privately, and I remember CLink sold a Paolo Rivera DD cover for around $15K (though, both of those pieces went to veteran Gen X vintage collectors).  I'm sure some other Modern pieces (like Jim Lee Hush material) has sold for decent money on CLink - anyone remember any other notable data points?  Of particular interest would be sales of artists and properties that genuinely came out in the 2000s and 2010s, not just Miller re-doing Dark Knight (see my thread on the DKIII cover sale) or a veteran artist like Jim Lee doing Batman.  

My point, being, is that we haven't seen many (any?) truly big sales of art (say, $40K+) from genuinely new artists/properties from the 2000s/2010s (I'll throw in BA12 here even though it was from the '90s simply because the character has really only exploded over the past decade) that would lead me to think that BA12 should be $100K or NYX 3 should be $60K.  If you look through the Heritage archives (not that all high-$$$ transactions go through Heritage, of course), really big, $40K+ sales of OA are a lot less common than people seem to believe.  

  

Edited March 13, 2017 by delekkerste

[Bronty]

I figure 10-15 is reasonable, so I figure it will get 20-25.    (Double what I think is reasonable is usually a workable guess )

The concept art included with this cover has some value on its own and will help a bit.   I think those 'extras' are 2.5-5 on their own.

 

Edited March 13, 2017 by Bronty

[Hekla]

I think I would feel weird owning a drawing of an under-aged sex slave (as she is portrayed in the NYX series). Just sayin'...

[Bronty]

8 minutes ago, Hekla said:

I think I would feel weird owning a drawing of an under-aged sex slave (as she is portrayed in the NYX series). Just sayin'...

I don't think most people give it a thought beyond 'first appearance'