AF15 value - will the market 'crash'? 3 3

[peewee22]

17 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

irrational as it may seem. life is short. get what you believe in. 

I like this guy.

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I think however you're missing the point in this. It dropped 43.3 to Spider-man 61.3 yes, however that's due to a few reasons.

1. It opened lower, so the expected fall was going to be much less impactful (that a word?). It opened to 15% less revenue and fell by comparable amounts in that two week window.They are very on par when averaged out over 2 weeks. They made comparable amounts in that two week split, just one started higher than the other so when that 2nd week automatic drop occurred that number was bigger. But the net effect is the same.

I am missing your logic here as they usually look at box office trends by drops from a percentage point of view as opposed to absolute dollars decreases. 

From a percentage point of view, Spidey dropped by 62% from Weekend #1 to Weekend #2 while Wonder Woman dropped by only 43%.  Yes, they are both pretty much the same in terms of absolute box office dollars after 2 full weeks since Spidey started off with a bigger opening weekend as you had correctly pointed out. 

So, using your rationale, since Wonder Woman had a bigger 2nd weekend as compared to Spidey's 2nd weekend, we would expect the drop for Spidey's 3rd weekend to be smaller than the drop for Wonder Woman's 3rd weekend.  Since the actual drop for WW's 3rd weekend was $17.2M, then I assume by your logic that the drop for Spidey's 3rd weekend should be less than $17.2M for a 3rd weekend box office receipts of at least $27M or a percentage drop of less than 38%. 

I guess we will simply have to wait a week from now to see how solid your analysis is. 

[VintageComics]

19 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I think you have to look beyond the one world wide box office number and take a look at the fact that the weekend box office receipts dropped by more than 61% which is one of the biggest drops ever in the MCU for a second weekend performance.  Based upon the standard multiplier which is often used, it looks like this latest version of Spidey is now forecasted to do no better than their previous versions on a domestic level.  I guess only time will tell. 

This would actually represent a drop in the number of movie tickets sold due to the inflation factor of ticket prices.  So, yes although the big number is good, I somehow believe the MCU studio bosses were hoping for something stronger and with better legs like Wonder Woman. 

How does it compare to other movies this time of year?

July is a massive vacation months. You also have Disney con going on last weekend in Anaheim and San Diego this weekend.

Those two cons alone will pull millions out of the economy. Add in vacationing families and I can see a sudden drop.

I could be wrong but we're in full summer vacation mode now as a family.

[zhamlau]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

20 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I think you have to look beyond the one world wide box office number and take a look at the fact that the weekend box office receipts dropped by more than 61% which is one of the biggest drops ever in the MCU for a second weekend performance.  Based upon the standard multiplier which is often used, it looks like this latest version of Spidey is now forecasted to do no better than their previous versions on a domestic level.  I guess only time will tell. 

This would actually represent a drop in the number of movie tickets sold due to the inflation factor of ticket prices.  So, yes although the big number is good, I somehow believe the MCU studio bosses were hoping for something stronger and with better legs like Wonder Woman. 

How does it compare to other movies this time of year?

July is a massive vacation months. You also have Disney con going on last weekend in Anaheim and San Diego this weekend.

Those two cons alone will pull millions out of the economy. Add in vacationing families and I can see a sudden drop.

I could be wrong but we're in full summer vacation mode now as a family.

Well you both have points. The logic is simple you are looking at raw numbers but the motivations behind those numbers are where the (in my opinion) story shifts.

 

1. With no headwind in an uncontested market getting unrelenting positive media coverage In a flat block-buster free month, the single best DCU movie to date managed to open at expectations and dropped off to a lower end percentage for week two based on past blockbuster performance. With good if somewhat dismissive media coverage Spider-man went into the most heavily contested month of the calendar year, with unbelievable strong competition on its 2nd weeks and projected later in the month, and performed at the same level as WW to date. To me, that shows me the inherent strength of Spider-man more than WW. All things lined up for WW, it got a favorable placement and support and did well. Not game changing but very well. Spider-man went into the crucible and came out with similar performance to date.

2. I think on the back end Spider-man will do better in terms of rental and international box office. If you take a look at foreign release WW split 50/50 where as Spider-man is like 45-55 dom/for.  That means Spider-man will do a solid percentage higher on foreign markets than US for seats filled. That's where Spider-man will have longer legs. Its much more digestible to a foreign market and will wind its way through multiple viewings better internationally than WW did. Because of that SM should outduel WW at the same 6 week mark DESPITE having much higher external pressures put on it at the Box Office. And because foreign will do so well and foreign has a longer shelf life boxoffice wise I think it will start making more money on that front and collectively outperform WW.  Again just my opinion but it really seems to be playing out that way. What really messes up that projection is how well Atomic Blonde does. Not sure how that gets digested yet intentionally and if it will really come to play on box office.

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I think on the back end Spider-man will do better in terms of rental and international box office. If you take a look at foreign release WW split 50/50 where as Spider-man is like 45-55 dom/for.  That means Spider-man will do a solid percentage higher on foreign markets than US for seats filled. That's where Spider-man will have longer legs. Its much more digestible to a foreign market and will wind its way through multiple viewings better internationally than WW did.

+1

A much sounder and more thorough analysis and one which I would certainly have no problem agreeing with once you take into account the International box office receipts. 

Edited July 18, 2017 by lou_fine

[Spiderturtle]

15 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

+1

A much sounder and more thorough analysis and one which I would certainly have no problem agreeing with once you take into account the International box office receipts. 

the supporting cast will appeal to the foreign market, probably had this in mind

[Glassman10]

I stick to the original reason for Spiderman's popularity, a neurotic kid who needed love and had a great guilt trip relationship with his remaining relative.  Neurosis made Marvel.  Superman never did that.  As long as that theme doesn't get dumped. the zit covered kids of America  will keep embracing the concept.  The adults of America will check their portfolios and keep buying the book. Show me a single moment where the support for the ASM has waivered. 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Glassman10
demon spelling

[peewee22]

37 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

I stick to the original reason for Spiderman's popularity, a neurotic kid who needed love and had a great guilt trip relationship with his remaining relative.  Neurosis made Marvel.  Superman never did that.  As long as that theme doesn't get dumped. the zit covered kids of America  will keep embracing the concept.  The adults of America will check their portfolios and keep buying the book. Show me a single moment where the support for the ASM has waivered. 

Upon leaving the movie theatre in '78 after watching Superman, a lady smiled at me and said, "when will they make a Spiderman movie".  Fans back then even knew his popularity.

Edited July 18, 2017 by peewee22

[Glassman10]

8 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Upon leaving the movie theatre in '78 after watching Superman, a lady smiled at me and said, "when will they make a Spiderman movie".  Fans back then even knew his popularity.

Computer graphics made all of this stuff work. Lord of the rings really got a foot hold but for comics, in my mind it was Raiders of the Lost Ark which made   made all of this movie stuff work right down to the maps tracking plane trips across the continents-. but for comics. Marvel humanized it down to the depression of teenagers.  Who does one think bought comics in 1967? ( dumb bastards like me) . If Rogosfsky was buying them, there was a man with the vision of H L Mencken. 

[peewee22]

18 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

Computer graphics made all of this stuff work. Lord of the rings really got a foot hold but for comics, in my mind it was Raiders of the Lost Ark which made   made all of this movie stuff work right down to the maps tracking plane trips across the continents-. but for comics. Marvel humanized it down to the depression of teenagers.  Who does one think bought comics in 1967? ( dumb bastards like me) . If Rogosfsky was buying them, there was a man with the vision of H L Mencken. 

Yep. Rogofsky and Bell (the comic bag king) were THE sellers of comics & supplies in the 60s & 70s. Make that the only sellers. If I recall, R's catalog always had a light blue soft cover.

[zhamlau]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

15 hours ago, zhamlau said:

I think on the back end Spider-man will do better in terms of rental and international box office. If you take a look at foreign release WW split 50/50 where as Spider-man is like 45-55 dom/for.  That means Spider-man will do a solid percentage higher on foreign markets than US for seats filled. That's where Spider-man will have longer legs. Its much more digestible to a foreign market and will wind its way through multiple viewings better internationally than WW did.

+1

A much sounder and more thorough analysis and one which I would certainly have no problem agreeing with once you take into account the International box office receipts. 

Thank you. To be honest its really just the same analysis as before I just went into borderline painful detail (what I sometimes feel when i read some of my writing lol) instead of the previous broad strokes on the 2nd pass. I forget sometimes you can't always short hand RCA's to executive bullet points so I tend to just high level stuff. If you want to get your point across sometimes online sometimes you need to straddle that fine line between being too short where you leave a lot of gaps cause you're in the clouds, but not to long to be pedantic.

Edited July 19, 2017 by zhamlau

[Kalel38]

On 17 July 2017 at 6:54 AM, namisgr said:

No, years ago AF15 wasn't a big 3 book and Marvel Comics #1 was.  That the latter is no longer serves as a reminder that even one of the biggest comics in the hobby can lose investor interest once it reaches a certain price.  So while AF15 is a monster key and likely to do well as an investment going forward, it's possible it won't, a possibility that increases as the cost of the comic skyrockets.

Yes years ago AF 15 "WAS" a big book and will always be be huge book past present and future and for collectors no matter what age they are. As the book skyrockets your forgetting a major factor,collectors do have huge wallets. Why are people paying over 14k today for a 2.5 AF 15 when they could have payed 3k in 2011??? Well it's because there's a a lot of deep pocket collectors in this world more so then anyone is admitting to recognise. All I'm hearing is "who's going to pay 40-50k for a AF 15 2.0 say 10yrs down the road"... Well why is someone paying 3.1 million for a Action 1 9.0 Cgc copy in 2015. It's because someone can. You can't judge your own financial position to someone else's who is willing to spend big money on AF 15 or a whatever book they want,its irrelevant when some people have major money to spend.. Is there a ceiling to comics? No,,,,because if that's the case then no one would be buying big key books thinking one day it's gonna stagnate or plummet or worse not sell because someome is predicting the prices will be too high for some collector that won't have the funds to spend for there book..

[Glassman10]

to be brief:

 

Bigger Pie but way more people want to eat it. 

Edited July 19, 2017 by Glassman10

[Callaway29]

54 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

Yes years ago AF 15 "WAS" a big book and will always be be huge book past present and future and for collectors no matter what age they are. As the book skyrockets your forgetting a major factor,collectors do have huge wallets. Why are people paying over 14k today for a 2.5 AF 15 when they could have payed 3k in 2011??? Well it's because there's a a lot of deep pocket collectors in this world more so then anyone is admitting to recognise. All I'm hearing is "who's going to pay 40-50k for a AF 15 2.0 say 10yrs down the road"... Well why is someone paying 3.1 million for a Action 1 9.0 Cgc copy in 2015. It's because someone can. You can't judge your own financial position to someone else's who is willing to spend big money on AF 15 or a whatever book they want,its irrelevant when some people have major money to spend.. Is there a ceiling to comics? No,,,,because if that's the case then no one would be buying big key books thinking one day it's gonna stagnate or plummet or worse not sell because someome is predicting the prices will be too high for some collector that won't have the funds to spend for there book..

The sensationalism is getting out of hand. We're comparing action comics #1 to AF15 now? There are 67 AC1's on the census...there are 2745 AF15's (US edition) and counting. Rarity of the AC1 is in a different league...yea yea, I know...AF15 demand is in a league of its own as well, but rarity is much more static than demand.

[piper]

I understand the supply/demand argument from both sides.What I find interesting is that Hulk 181 continues to go up. I'm not saying that AF15's should go for loco money just that the same discussion has been ongoing with respect to Wolverine's first appearance for many years. 

Edited July 19, 2017 by piper

[zhamlau]

I think what would be interesting would be to compare top 4 copies of each book. That should work out to the 8-9.2's for Tec and 8-9.0 for Action and the 9.6's for AF15.  In a case like that the number of lesser copies from behind would mean very little. They are the top 4, the elite condition copies. The buyers for all of these books are probably the same on all 3. What would those sell for compared to each other? The grades themselves almost becoming meaningless at that point, as well as the copy numbers behind them, all things would be as close to equal as possible. If you own any of the 4 for Action or Tec you will never be able to upgrade realistically. When it pops up you are making your end state final collection play. Same for the 9.6's for AF 15. That is your end state book for your perm collection.

 

What would than those books sell for? Would action really outduel af15 in that case? like would a 9.6 sell for the same as one of the 9.0 actions? or a 9.2 tec? Would it be in the same range? That will be interesting to see because eventually ONE of those 9.6's will shake loose.

[namisgr]

6 hours ago, Kalel38 said:

Yes years ago AF 15 "WAS" a big book and will always be be huge book past present and future and for collectors no matter what age they are. As the book skyrockets your forgetting a major factor,collectors do have huge wallets. Why are people paying over 14k today for a 2.5 AF 15 when they could have payed 3k in 2011??? Well it's because there's a a lot of deep pocket collectors in this world more so then anyone is admitting to recognise. All I'm hearing is "who's going to pay 40-50k for a AF 15 2.0 say 10yrs down the road"... Well why is someone paying 3.1 million for a Action 1 9.0 Cgc copy in 2015. It's because someone can. You can't judge your own financial position to someone else's who is willing to spend big money on AF 15 or a whatever book they want,its irrelevant when some people have major money to spend.. Is there a ceiling to comics? No,,,,because if that's the case then no one would be buying big key books thinking one day it's gonna stagnate or plummet or worse not sell because someome is predicting the prices will be too high for some collector that won't have the funds to spend for there book..

The discussion was centered on the 'big 3 books' of the hobby.  I pointed out that Marvel Comics #1 was one of the big 3, and AF15 was only the third most highly valued SA comic.  Then things changed, and the value of Marvel Comics #1 didn't keep pace with other major keys.  The example stands: a comic isn't guaranteed to remain a big 3 book for the hobby forever, and even the most highly valued keys can lose out to other comics in supply/demand.  The point stands as well: the stellar recent past performance of AF15 in terms of valuation may or may not be sustained over the coming years, but since past performance doesn't guarantee future value nobody can say with certainty that the price of the book won't flat-line.

[piper]

47 minutes ago, namisgr said:

The discussion was centered on the 'big 3 books' of the hobby.  I pointed out that Marvel Comics #1 was one of the big 3, and AF15 was only the third most highly valued SA comic.  Then things changed, and the value of Marvel Comics #1 didn't keep pace with other major keys.  The example stands: a comic isn't guaranteed to remain a big 3 book for the hobby forever, and even the most highly valued keys can lose out to other comics in supply/demand.  The point stands as well: the stellar recent past performance of AF15 in terms of valuation may or may not be sustained over the coming years, but since past performance doesn't guarantee future value nobody can say with certainty that the price of the book won't flat-line.

I'd love to be able to afford a Marvel 1!

[VintageComics]

18 hours ago, Kalel38 said:

Yes years ago AF 15 "WAS" a big book and will always be be huge book past present and future and for collectors no matter what age they are. As the book skyrockets your forgetting a major factor,collectors do have huge wallets. Why are people paying over 14k today for a 2.5 AF 15 when they could have payed 3k in 2011??? Well it's because there's a a lot of deep pocket collectors in this world more so then anyone is admitting to recognise. All I'm hearing is "who's going to pay 40-50k for a AF 15 2.0 say 10yrs down the road"... Well why is someone paying 3.1 million for a Action 1 9.0 Cgc copy in 2015. It's because someone can. You can't judge your own financial position to someone else's who is willing to spend big money on AF 15 or a whatever book they want,its irrelevant when some people have major money to spend.. Is there a ceiling to comics? No,,,,because if that's the case then no one would be buying big key books thinking one day it's gonna stagnate or plummet or worse not sell because someome is predicting the prices will be too high for some collector that won't have the funds to spend for there book..

You're looking at the world through AF #15 colored glasses.

[Kalel38]

1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

You're looking at the world through AF #15 colored glasses.

Not as bad as ur looking through Marvel comics #1 ?