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AF15 value - will the market 'crash'?
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Started by UncleAnwar,

280 posts in this topic

Kalel38

Kalel38

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

SC22 is that you Kalel38 ( with a new name ... again ? )

New name? No iv had this name a while when the forum got switched over to its new look 

Edited by Kalel38
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Readcomix

Readcomix

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Posted
On July 21, 2017 at 0:14 PM, marmat said:

In my case, the limit is 1.5. Anything over that, that is too much.

I prefer to have a nice Hulk 1, JIM 83 or X Men 1 than a crappy looking AF15. Even a good looking 1.0 with the spine completely splitted doesn't appeal to me

I think you guys sum it up quite nicely between you. While decent copies have moved out of reach of many, some will react by getting the best low-grade copy they can afford, and some will consider the cost and opt for a nicer shape copy of a different SA key that they think has legs. The fun here is in the speculating about it. Some will turn to ASM 1, I'd think. Some, like Marmat in his post, will target an alternate subgroup of SA keys. Others will move to what they think is the next frontier for big % gains, be it a different era, the next tier of SA keys, etc. 

That's among the many reasons I love this hobby; it's got such a diversity of niches/micro-markets; the options are endless. (Not that SA keys are a micromarket, but the alternatives for those who consider themselves priced out of any they would want include many options.)

i also like zhamlau's analysis in that wanting a book and affording are not the same thing. People who want the book but are priced out also keep the floor high if something falls close to their price range. A character has to become pretty irrelevant to really crash in price, and that can and does happen. But Spidey in the foreseeable future? Seems more likely a slowing than a reversal-type crash. (To get squarely back to the original question.)

Also consider: every priced out collector is one good find away. People find, buy and sell underpriced items all the time, funding their collecting goals in the process, no? 

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Glassman10

Glassman10

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Posted (edited)
On 7/21/2017 at 11:22 AM, namisgr said:

Like I posted earlier, there's an important distinction between a valuation crashing and flatlining.  I certainly never gave consideration to the AF15 market crashing, and don't recall seeing anyone else suggesting it would either.  Topping out, however, is an entirely different thing, and seems quite plausible.  Why would such a thing happen?  It's become a lot riskier now to buy a mid-grade AF15 for X dollars than it was 18 months ago to buy the same copy for X/2 dollars.

As for future pricing, since nobody knows the future it seems naïve at best and possibly even willfully manipulative to hype that AF15 values will always and forever go up and up and up. 

Money is a very strange thing. At  this point, the $8000 dollar rolex is still dead in the water but the $250K rolex is two years backordered.  Some people buy stuff just to show someone else that they can.  That's a strange mind game. 

Back in December, my son finally asked me if he could see the collection that had been in the house for 45-50 years and I said it was fine. He asked if he could read the unslabbed AF 15 which is the one I found in a box and I said OK. We took some pictures of him reading it and he put them on Reddit. He had 800 responses in one hour, most claiming it must be a reprint. 800 in one hour tells me the book is in no danger of crashing at all. Back in Dec, I think an AF15  (5.0) slabbed was around 25,000. Last month a 4.0 went for 35K. That doesn't sound like a crash to me.  The part I continue to not understnad with the book is how Marvel chipping as extensive as some of these books have it can pull as high a grades as they do, especially when there are many non chipped examples around.

But I don't think Hulk 181 can ever be compared to this nor can Iron Man 55. It was a very innocent time in comics. The story line was ridiculous, the villains not very villainous but Marvel tapped something that no one else had touched. Super heros with  emotional issues. Hal Jordan never had no stinkin issues! There's no crying in comics! Oh wait... 

Edited by Glassman10
demon spelling
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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

Money is a very strange thing. At  this point, the $8000 dollar rolex is still dead in the water but the $250K rolex is two years backordered.  Some people buy stuff just to show someone else that they can.  That's a strange mind game. 

Back in December, my son finally asked me if he could see the collection that had been in the house for 45-50 years and I said it was fine. He asked if he could read the unslabbed AF 15 which is the one I found in a box and I said OK. We took some pictures of him reading it and he put them on Reddit. He had 800 responses in one hour, most claiming it must be a reprint. 800 in one hour tells me the book is in no danger of crashing at all. Back in Dec, I think an AF15  (5.0) slabbed was around 25,000. Last month a 4.0 went for 35K. That doesn't sound like a crash to me.  The part I continue to not understnad with the book is how Marvel chipping as extensive as some of these books have it can pull as high a grades as they do, especially when there are many non chipped examples around.

But I don't think Hulk 181 can ever be compared to this nor can Iron Man 55. It was a very innocent time in comics. The story line was ridiculous, the villains not very villainous but Marvel tapped something that no one else had touched. Super heros with  emotional issues. Hal Jordan never had no stinkin issues! There's no crying in comics! Oh wait... 

I prefer Blancpain over Rolex. :bigsmile:

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lou_fine

lou_fine

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

The part I continue to not understnad with the book is how Marvel chipping as extensive as some of these books have it can pull as high a grades as they do, especially when there are many non chipped examples around.

Apparently CGC's take on this is that Marvel chipping is basically a production flaw and as a result, tend to give it much less weight than some other defects such as near invisible non-color breaking creases which you can see only if you hold the book up at a certain angle to the light.  :screwy:

My take on it is that they really cannot do anything about Marvel chipping whereas they see non-color braking creases as an additional revenue generating defect and hence, will apply the sledgehammer to it when it comes to grading.  After all, they are a business entity and it's all about generating revenue and dollars for their owners.  hm

Edited by lou_fine
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Glassman10

Glassman10

Posted
Posted

well, I get that. I view an off center cover as a production flaw as I view staples that either failed to attach or were never there in the first place or were crooked  as production flaws too, but I know how that gets treated up in the magic world of 9.0+. SInce I see AF15's such as the 5.0 Bob had as phenomenal examples of the book as a 5.0, and I see 6.0's littered with chipping down the entire cover page, I have to assume the perfect looking one had some serious other flaw bringing it down.  It could also be the case that the grading fee is based on FMV and the more that is, well.... the more that is...

In older books, grading gets peculiar anyways. AF 15 is just the posterchild. I have an ASM16 9.0 and it's a really nice book but I can't help thinking that if it was printed in 1975 that it would not get that grade. In the Corning Museum of Glass, there are bottles from the roman 1000 AD period that everyone marvels at. I think in reality they have survived this long simply given the fact that so many were made at the time that a few surviving is not that big a surprise. 

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, peewee22 said:

I prefer Blancpain over Rolex. :bigsmile:

I've got 4 Rolexes and 3 Blancpains...no need to choose one over the other when you can have both. :takeit:

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lou_fine

lou_fine

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I've got 4 Rolexes and 3 Blancpains...no need to choose one over the other when you can have both. :takeit:

Sounds to me as though you are nothing but a big time hoarder here.  :baiting:

Have you had a chance to talk to somebody about your condition yet?  lol

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