Are the Boomers cashing out? 6 6

[NoMan]

Just now, lizards2 said:

They still make Star Wars movies?  I haven't seen one in about 15-20 years.

There is new one every time I sneeze. 

[JollyComics]

Interesting thread and theory.  CGC graded over 4 million comic books. Digital comic books are coming. The future generations will become environmentalists so the printed comic books may be extinct soon.  Do you really think the comic books become worthless except rare/mega key comic books?  Like currencies?   Hollywood rarely did a good job to produce the movies since 1992. We have experienced vibes in IH 181 and ASM 129 twice before the prices settled down. Everything is in digital that may put CGC out of the business. The last year of the Baby Boomer generation is 1964 when I born.  I think it will be good for 10-15 more years. Maybe the comic collections may be passed over to other generations. Comic Cons are not excited anymore. Who knows?  I hope Sgt Rock and Haunted Tank get a deserve to be in movies.

Edited August 26, 2017 by JollyComics

[1950's war comics]

34 minutes ago, Von Cichlid said:

Sometimes it's as if they are really large trading cards that I like to open up and smell.   The fact that the stories don't move me near as much as they did when I was a kid is just a part of growing up.  There simply isn't any comic as good as A Song of Ice and Fire or other great literature.  That's OK though.  I still appreciate them now, just for different reasons.  There is nothing like soaking up the look and feel of a fresh plump non-pressed SA book with a great color strike and supple paper quality.  I picked up a raw high grade FF 30 today for that very reason.  Not a story I'm interested in or a key issue by any stretch, but it was just so well preserved and at a reasonable price so I had to have it.  Essentially, I can appreciate the beauty and quality of that book in a way that a young kid buying for the first time never could, much like a young kid who read that story right when it was picked up off a newsstand appreciated it in a way I never will be able to.   

The last con i was at the comic smell stayed in my nostrils all weekend long  

[1950's war comics]

25 minutes ago, grebal said:

 

Probably accurate forecast for low/mid-grade commons.

But people have for at least a decade been projecting a dire drop in comic book demand as baby boomers retire, and die off, and as a long-time market observer/punter, just as often when something becomes popular consensus the forecasts turn out to be universally wrong (the commodity price bubble that burst about a decade ago, at the time, had near-universal consensus by "professionals" that e.g. light sweet oil would never see below 60 bbl again).  The "movie boom" will be quoted as the reason common knowledge proved wrong the past decade, and nobody knows for sure what might be the next excuse for "oops, my bad."

in coin collecting the most popular grade to collect is "fine" ,,,

as higher prices move budget minded comic collectors out of  the higher grade market they will still be happy buying a VG

[Aweandlorder]

6 minutes ago, 1950's war comics said:

The last con i was at the comic smell stayed in my nostrils all weekend long  

Stop dropping acid during the shows 1WC!

Edited August 26, 2017 by Aweandlorder

[grebal]

Just now, 1950's war comics said:

in coin collecting the most popular grade to collect is "fine" ,,,

as higher prices move budget minded comic collectors out of  the higher grade market they will still be happy buying a VG

In comics, in the 70s, 90s and early 00s (the times I did most of my buying), that describes me.  Started out accumulating comics when a relatively poor kid, and then conditioned by overstreet to (wrongly) consider low/mid grades a comparatively good buy (my early years mass accumulating when the ratio was 1:2:3 for GD, FN, NM).  Even now, when I recently bought Avengers 1 & 4 to complete my run to 200, I bought a slabbed 3.5 and 4.5.  So I agree w/ you in principle.  But in light of the "keys collector" and dearth of run collectors and completists, I come to view low/mid grade commons as a separate, sub-market, in contrast to keys and high grades.

[kav]

1 hour ago, NoMan said:

There is new one every time I sneeze. 

pls stop sneezing!

[01TheDude]

haven't collections been turning over from one collector to the next since the beginning?

Spoiler

 

All I remember as a kid was coveting those early Marvel issues--- books that weren't too much older than me (born in 1965). It was the mid seventies and collecting was hitting it's stride obviously - so maybe it is not quite in touch with today's scenario.

My point is that I felt this indescribable urge for the history of the hobby. Maybe it was because it was Marvel's special magic of that time but I wanted those books bad. The only thing holding me back was the cost. Stumbling across any book from that era at a price I could afford was considered a score to me. Keys were known but out of reach for most kid collectors. The ragged out Tales of Suspense 63 and JIM 122 I had were my oldest books and got read quite frequently-- both for the art and the stories. I wasn't even born when these came out.

Now the reason I wrote that is that I find it hard to believe there won't be more kids who come along and have that same sort of feeling. It might not be for SA-- maybe it is for bronze. I had no great affinity to golden age books other than knowing that Captain America and some other characters were around waaaaay back then. Or knowing stuff about Superman and other DC characters (Marvel Zombie aside). But those books were not even close to reachable versus the SA marvels.

Now the one thing that makes the argument work might be the content that corresponds to the newer collector. If you start collecting in the 2000s-- those bronze age books are the equivalent to someones golden age books (30 or more years old). The stuff that came out in the mid 80s to mid 90s and afterwards is just not the same to most of us. It is adult material in many cases and the art is seems less impressive in most cases. The books just aren't as good imo.

 

 

[grebal]

6 minutes ago, 01TheDude said:

haven't collections been turning over from one collector to the next since the beginning?

What amazes me is that every time someone sells a comic book, there was also a buyer for the comic.

[Ken Aldred]

It's always been a pricey hobby, especially at the high grade level, but I still feel a bit sorry for the new intake of young collectors, who've entered at this point and will have to pay quite exorbitant sums for key issues from the outset. I'm glad I'm at a stage where I've got enough already and don't really need to continue, or to worry about the upward trend persisting for years or decades, as they might have to.

Edited August 26, 2017 by Ken Aldred

[atomised]

Most guys my age are buying Vanguard mutual funds or tucking money away into long term government bonds.  I think that's boring and the whole market is going to have another massive correction.  So I buy GA books instead like Cap and Lantern and Blue Beetle because they're cool and life is short. 

[Phantalien]

Clickbait is just that, clickbait.  

Comics are a bit unique compared to other collectibles mentioned in this thread.   They have art so they can be aesthetically pleasing and they have stories that entertain us.   I think that's why comics can be around for a long time.   The big question lies within the dissemination of these collections held by baby boomers.  There are a number of people who are selling off or bequeathing collections.   Some of these are known collections, others are unknown.    The number that will be available may increase, which affects prices but then that can only enforce certain buying habits.   It can possibly make the ungraded copies cheaper because there will be more out there --or-- it will make the graded copies go down because the new buyers want to hold and read the books.   

I think that if comics have survived the glut of a worldwide online market that ebay and various auction houses have incurred on this hobby, then everything will be OK.    I think the uncertainty lies with current comics and whether they will see the desire of collectors as much as the golden and silver age of comics.

[Gatsby77]

32 minutes ago, Phantalien said:

Clickbait is just that, clickbait.  

Comics are a bit unique compared to other collectibles mentioned in this thread.   They have art so they can be aesthetically pleasing and they have stories that entertain us.   I think that's why comics can be around for a long time.   The big question lies within the dissemination of these collections held by baby boomers.  There are a number of people who are selling off or bequeathing collections.   Some of these are known collections, others are unknown.    The number that will be available may increase, which affects prices but then that can only enforce certain buying habits.   It can possibly make the ungraded copies cheaper because there will be more out there --or-- it will make the graded copies go down because the new buyers want to hold and read the books.   

I think that if comics have survived the glut of a worldwide online market that ebay and various auction houses have incurred on this hobby, then everything will be OK.    I think the uncertainty lies with current comics and whether they will see the desire of collectors as much as the golden and silver age of comics.

I think that "glut of a worldwide online market" is overblown.

eBay's comics section today is literally 90% overpriced BIN to 10% auctions.

So, in effect, the market is being improperly propped up by the illusion of books that continue to sit at inflated prices or (logical conclusion) aren't really for sale (at market) at all.

All it would take for a massive 50%+ downward price correction for 98 percent of the material out there is for every book on eBay to go to true auction.

That's scary.

[Mr. Zipper]

42 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

I think that "glut of a worldwide online market" is overblown.

eBay's comics section today is literally 90% overpriced BIN to 10% auctions.

So, in effect, the market is being improperly propped up by the illusion of books that continue to sit at inflated prices...

This. 

I've seen many of the same wildly overpriced books "for sale" in my daily searches literally for years. The ebay free listing nonsense is the cause of this. 

[Phantalien]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

I think that "glut of a worldwide online market" is overblown.

eBay's comics section today is literally 90% overpriced BIN to 10% auctions.

So, in effect, the market is being improperly propped up by the illusion of books that continue to sit at inflated prices or (logical conclusion) aren't really for sale (at market) at all.

All it would take for a massive 50%+ downward price correction for 98 percent of the material out there is for every book on eBay to go to true auction.

That's scary.

 

The glut of books that I am talking about is about quantity of books and access to them not the supposed value that some people put on their merchandise.

[Gatsby77]

12 minutes ago, Phantalien said:

 

The glut of books that I am talking about is about quantity of books and access to them not the supposed value that some people put on their merchandise.

But that's exactly my point.

Collectors don't have access to 90 percent of the books on eBay right now, because literally 90%+ aren't really for sale -- they're merely posted at fanciful prices.

If a $100 book is over-priced, it doesn't matter if it's over-priced at $110 or $20,000 -- it still won't sell. So in effect, it's not really for sale.

Once we hit another recession or folks are actually motivated to sell (by looming retirement or otherwise), I think we'll see a massive correction across the board.

[BlowUpTheMoon]

16 hours ago, MisterX said:

19 hours ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

Thanks for the link!

Starting a thread saying, "I read this online article..." then not posting a link to the article is

[Senormac]

5 minutes ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

Starting a thread saying, "I read this online article..." then not posting a link to the article is

+1  

[Aweandlorder]

10 hours ago, grebal said:

What amazes me is that every time someone sells a comic book, there was also a buyer for the comic.

And another 100 buyers who missed out on said book

[Aweandlorder]

10 hours ago, Ken Aldred said:

It's always been a pricey hobby, especially at the high grade level, but I still feel a bit sorry for the new intake of young collectors, who've entered at this point and will have to pay quite exorbitant sums for key issues from the outset. I'm glad I'm at a stage where I've got enough already and don't really need to continue, or to worry about the upward trend persisting for years or decades, as they might have to.

I just feel bad for the guys getting into the hobby having to pay so much for what used to be such a cheap hobby to begin with. I collected comic books and records from an early age. Just to read and play. At a later stage of my life I quit buying comics and concentrated heavily on records. 5 years ago I got back into comic books after finding out that some of my books have gained tremendous value (among other reasons). None of my records did. Not even one.