BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[paperheart]

On 8/22/2021 at 9:16 AM, @therealsilvermane said:

And that's without China. It may not have single-handedly saved the movie industry but it still didn't do bad considering the circumstances.

$125MM on Disney+ roughly equivalent to $175MM at the BO from the perspective of $ to Disney (if you want to look at it that way). And what's with $125MM? was told that $60MM, was confirmed

[Bosco685]

On 8/23/2021 at 12:32 PM, paperheart said:

$125MM on Disney+ roughly equivalent to $175MM at the BO from the perspective of $ to Disney (if you want to look at it that way). And what's with $125MM? was told that $60MM, was confirmed

"Because in my expert accounting opinion I have factored all variables into consideration and this has passed my fully matured methodology, Backside Studio Accounting LLC."

[Gatsby77]

On 8/23/2021 at 12:43 PM, Bosco685 said:

"Because in my expert accounting opinion I have factored all variables into consideration and this has passed my fully matured methodology, Backside Studio Accounting LLC."

He’s not wrong, tho.

My MBA’s from a public school and once upon a time I got fired from my accounting job at a private equity fund but this is interesting on several levels:

1) It provides a benchmark for a total Disney+ Premium of ~2.0x (first weekend to total). 

Disney self-reported $60 million first weekend gross & $125 million total (now, near end-of-run).

2) Given that Disney nets at least 85% of Disney+ Premium grosses, $125 mill. there is indeed equivalent to $175+ million theatrical (assuming an overall 60% domestic take, which is likely given how front-loaded this was).

3) (From the early pages of this thread, years ago) - ScarJo’s contract stipulated a $5 million bonus once the film crossed $500 million worldwide theatrical.

4) The contract was silent as to streaming revenue, in part, because it was negotiated at a time when Disney+ didn’t exist (source: NPR earlier today - believe it was 1-A).

Therefore her case is solid, in that the film arguably will gross $500+ million, but she won’t qualify for her bonus due to cannibalism from streaming.

5) Arbitration is the right move for Disney because it’s cheaper to pay her $20-$50 million in settlement and keep those terms secret than to have to negotiate streaming gross points and profit sharing with every movie star in perpetuity.

All of this aside, Black Widow remains the highest studio grosser of the pandemic era (Fast 9 is second, A Quiet Place 2 is third).

[Bosco685]

On 8/23/2021 at 7:11 PM, Gatsby77 said:

He’s not wrong, tho.

My MBA’s from a public school and once upon a time I got fired from my accounting job at a private equity fund but this is interesting on several levels:

1) It provides a benchmark for a total Disney+ Premium of ~2.0x (first weekend to total). 

Disney self-reported $60 million first weekend gross & $125 million total (now, near end-of-run).

2) Given that Disney nets at least 85% of Disney+ Premium grosses, $125 mill. there is indeed equivalent to $175+ million theatrical (assuming an overall 60% domestic take, which is likely given how front-loaded this was).

3) (From the early pages of this thread, years ago) - ScarJo’s contract stipulated a $5 million bonus once the film crossed $500 million worldwide theatrical.

4) The contract was silent as to streaming revenue, in part, because it was negotiated at a time when Disney+ didn’t exist (source: NPR earlier today - believe it was 1-A).

Therefore her case is solid, in that the film arguably will gross $500+ million, but she won’t qualify for her bonus due to cannibalism from streaming.

5) Arbitration is the right move for Disney because it’s cheaper to pay her $20-$50 million in settlement and keep those terms secret than to have to negotiate streaming gross points and profit sharing with every movie star in perpetuity.

All of this aside, Black Widow remains the highest studio grosser of the pandemic era (Fast 9 is second, A Quiet Place 2 is third).

You know, I could see how the firing happened when you undermine earlier 'experience' statements how you negotiated theater contracts where they have more control than the studios.

Based on your earlier supposedly informed statement, and using your beloved Deadline box office share figures to determine domestic and international results...

DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M Domestic Box Office = 55% studio revenue which means $92,727,273 total domestic box office is required

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (again - please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M International Box Office = 40% studio revenue which means $127,500,000 total international box office is required

FINAL BOX OFFICE REQUIRED:

• $220,227,273 worldwide would be necessary to achieve $102M in box office revenue share results combined based on streaming totals

Now if this had also played in China (it may - they love their MCU films), we would have had to account for the traditional International Box Office split between the wider international results (40% revenue) and China (just 25% of studio revenue to Disney).

• Spider-Man: Far from Home (international box office total) = $741,395,911 of which China comprised $205,442,096 (28% of total results)
• Avengers: Endgame(international box office total) = $1,939,128,328 of which China comprised $629,100,000 (32% of total results)
• Captain Marvel (international box office total) = $701,633,133 of which China comprised $154,070,663 (22% of total results)
• Avengers: Infinity War (international box office total) = $1,369,544,272 of which China comprised $359,543,153 (26% of total results)

So when China factors into the release plan, based on the last four movies, we are looking at an average China contribution of 27% of the total international box office.

But you realized all this with your MBA and former accounting job you were dismissed from - right? 

Uhmmmmmm...

Edited August 24, 2021 by Bosco685
Correction on Endgame & Spidey 2 China share - BOM has it wrong

[Bosco685]

Wow! Just pulling those 4 examples you can see why Disney loves China

[chezmtghut]

On 8/23/2021 at 8:33 PM, Bosco685 said:

You know, I could see how the firing happened when you undermine earlier 'experience' statements how you negotiated theater contracts where they have more control than the studios.

Based on your earlier supposedly informed statement, and using your beloved Deadline box office share figures to determine domestic and international results...

DOMESTIC BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M Domestic Box Office = 55% studio revenue which means $92,727,273 total domestic box office is required

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE:

• $60M Streaming Dollars = $51M Disney revenue (again - please be careful not to assume this is profits)
• $51M International Box Office = 40% studio revenue which means $127,500,000 total international box office is required

FINAL BOX OFFICE REQUIRED:

• $220,227,273 worldwide would be necessary to achieve $102M in box office revenue share results combined based on streaming totals

Now if this had also played in China (it may - they love their MCU films), we would have had to account for the traditional International Box Office split between the wider international results (40% revenue) and China (just 25% of studio revenue to Disney).

• Spider-Man: Far from Home (international box office total) = $741,395,911 of which China comprised $205,442,096 (28% of total results)
• Avengers: Endgame(international box office total) = $1,939,128,328 of which China comprised $629,100,000 (32% of total results)
• Captain Marvel (international box office total) = $701,633,133 of which China comprised $154,070,663 (22% of total results)
• Avengers: Infinity War (international box office total) = $1,369,544,272 of which China comprised $359,543,153 (26% of total results)

So when China factors into the release plan, based on the last four movies, we are looking at an average China contribution of 27% of the total international box office.

But you realized all this with your MBA and former accounting job you were dismissed from - right? 

Uhmmmmmm...

Wow, pretty harsh comments on this one.

I have to admit that BW would have likely made more than $500 million if it was exclusively in theaters, possibly even close to $600. They should adjust contracts with 6-8 weeks exclusively in theaters before making it available on Disney+ & include both revenue streams into the finale box office total. Then make it free to Disney+ subscribers after 3-4 months depending on the film. Considering the end results, streaming simultaneously hasn't helped Disney at all. It's definitely saved a lot of their audience from attending theaters, which I think is considerate considering the pandemic. Imagine DC giving bonuses for Suicide Squad as though it made 1 billion, like they did with WW84!

[Bosco685]

On 8/23/2021 at 10:34 PM, chezmtghut said:

Wow, pretty harsh comments on this one.

Spoiler

I have to admit that BW would have likely made more than $500 million if it was exclusively in theaters, possibly even close to $600. They should adjust contracts with 6-8 weeks exclusively in theaters before making it available on Disney+ & include both revenue streams into the finale box office total. Then make it free to Disney+ subscribers after 3-4 months depending on the film. Considering the end results, streaming simultaneously hasn't helped Disney at all. It's definitely saved a lot of their audience from attending theaters, which I think is considerate considering the pandemic. Imagine DC giving bonuses for Suicide Squad as though it made 1 billion, like they did with WW84!

 

Not at all, if you've been paying close attention FOR YEARS.

Gatsby has accused me repeatedly of manipulating box office numbers, misrepresenting how studios and theaters operate, being naive to business and even when presented with actual situations of Disney strong-arming theaters and critics that I am lying. You know - respectful and non-confrontational dialogue.

So a case of 'the love you give is what you get'. Throwing in having an MBA and being a former accountant (in addition to being a former representative that negotiated theater contracts) is further cases of "I know more about these things than you".

Meanwhile - Gatsby has noted repeatedly Deadline's studio accounting model estimates of 55% domestic, 40% international (non-China), 25% China for revenue splits to studios. Manipulating that model so as now to make it appear even more favorable to Disney would be - in his common pattern of accusations - disingenuous.

With the rest of your points - I'll leave that to your opinions.

[Bosco685]

On 8/23/2021 at 7:11 PM, Gatsby77 said:

My MBA’s from a public school and once upon a time I got fired from my accounting job at a private equity fund but this is interesting on several levels:

...

All of this aside, Black Widow remains the highest studio grosser of the pandemic era (Fast 9 is second, A Quiet Place 2 is third).

Even with $125M from Disney+ streaming this Black Widow at $494.9M worldwide. If we look beyond the Domestic Box Office.

[▫️]

On 8/24/2021 at 5:09 AM, Bosco685 said:

Not at all, if you've been paying close attention FOR YEARS.

This is exactly the tone in which I read the above statement:

 

[Bosco685]

On 8/25/2021 at 9:39 PM, Scam Likely said:

This is exactly the tone in which I read the above statement:

 

You have to post your degree and former troubling work experience first.

[▫️]

On 8/23/2021 at 8:51 PM, Bosco685 said:

Wow! Just pulling those 4 examples you can see why Disney loves China

I won’t be a hypocrite, I’d sell out my artistic vision if my take home pay was going to double.  😞 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Scam Likely

[Bosco685]

Quote

According to THR, Evans and Johansson are teaming back up for a new Apple adventure film, Ghosted. So far, plot details of the film are being kept largely under wraps. However, the project has been described as a "high-concept, romantic action adventure" akin to the 1984 classic movie Romancing the Stone, starring Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner.

Looks like Apple stepped into the breach, and even added Chris Evans to the casting.

[Bosco685]

This thread dropped back rather quickly.

I guess the thinking 'this will blow over' in Disney's favor may not be accurate after the Cruella 1 and 2 payout news and now this.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Bosco685

[Bosco685]

[▫️]

The Russo’s did four Marvel movies? I think. Including my favorite from Marvel, The Winter Soldier. So thats a shame. I’m a broken record but in a perfect world, the Russo’s would have wrote and directed Black Widow as the next movie after Winter Soldier. The timing and tie-in would have given us something special and could have added more impact to her future sacrifice.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Scam Likely

[media_junkie]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:46 AM, Scam Likely said:

The Russo’s did four Marvel movies? I think. Including my favorite from Marvel, The Winter Soldier. So thats a shame. I’m a broken record but in a perfect world, the Russo’s would have wrote and directed Black Widow as the next movie after Winter Soldier. The timing and tie-in would have given us something special and could have added more impact to her future sacrifice.

I'm 100% in agreement with you there, that would have been great timing.  

[Bosco685]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:46 AM, Scam Likely said:

The Russo’s did four Marvel movies? I think. Including my favorite from Marvel, The Winter Soldier. So thats a shame. I’m a broken record but in a perfect world, the Russo’s would have wrote and directed Black Widow as the next movie after Winter Soldier. The timing and tie-in would have given us something special and could have added more impact to her future sacrifice.

 

On 9/4/2021 at 8:49 AM, media_junkie said:

I'm 100% in agreement with you there, that would have been great timing.  

To me the biggest MCU miss. For whatever reason.

[@therealsilvermane]

I like the Russo Bros and the MCU owes them a huge debt for lifting it out of the shaky Phase Two, but I'm a little tired of the subtle plot holes (or "why didn't the character(s) just do this instead?") I constantly see in their films. It's humorous to me that their MCU film with the fewest of those is Avengers Endgame, a time travel movie. It wouldn't break my heart to see the MCU move on from them as long as the MCU keeps making good movies, which Marvel Studios has proven they can do over and over again.

[@therealsilvermane]

Also, there's no way the Russo Bros would have done Black Widow in any reality. They just made six hours of Avengers' movies with the Captain America writers. No way would they have come back yet again to make another MCU feature film on the heels of that. Plus, that creative team's thing was Captain America, not necessarily Black Widow. Natalya Romanoff's swan song film was always destined to be made by a woman director & writer, especially with this newer male/female balanced Marvel Studios.

[▫️]

On 9/4/2021 at 10:19 AM, @therealsilvermane said:

Also, there's no way the Russo Bros would have done Black Widow in any reality. They just made six hours of Avengers' movies with the Captain America writers. No way would they have come back yet again to make another MCU feature film on the heels of that. Plus, that creative team's thing was Captain America, not necessarily Black Widow. Natalya Romanoff's swan song film was always destined to be made by a woman director & writer, especially with this newer male/female balanced Marvel Studios.

I didn’t say they should have made that Black Widow movie after Endgame. I said after The Winter Soldier. And no, that creative teams “thing” was not Captain America. I think they have a few more things in their creative envelope. And please don’t try to sell “A woman was destined” to do anything or even a man for that matter. How about the best person for the job? (As long as its not an old white dude, right?)