Okajima Adventure Comics #91 on Clink 3 3

[Flex Mentallo]

9 hours ago, skypinkblu said:

Title: The Black Tulip Author: Alexandre Dumas (Pere)

Thanks Sha - I'd never made the connection before!

[Flex Mentallo]

8 hours ago, path4play said:

safe to say buy what you can afford and makes you feel good during your time on earth.  

I totally agree.

[path4play]

4 hours ago, Flex Mentallo said:

I totally agree.

I know I should never sell past the close, but I see this weekend a Mile High Pedigree Tessie the Typist #13 8.5 sold for $6,572.50 (an easy 20x guide).  I have a copy of that issue I paid $22.49 for.  I'm sure others here can cite many examples.  If there is a bubble, its not isolated to one thing.

Personally, I think Okajima still has a very long ways to go. 

Edited May 17, 2018 by path4play

[entalmighty1]

9 hours ago, szavisca said:

Yeah but THOSE crazy Dutch people didn't have a service that certified and slabbed their precious tulips, thereby protecting and fostering their market, so this time its gonna be different right??...

I do love the story of the Tulip speculation bubble, but I think much of the oft repeated popular myth has been historically debunked.  The basic lesson applies somewhat to today's comic book and other collectible markets but I'd still be surprised if something as robust and mature as today's GA market went the way of the tulip.

I don't think people expect the entire market to implode, but it wouldn't shock me to see certain genres of the market experience a downturn.

[Flex Mentallo]

39 minutes ago, path4play said:

I know I should never sell past the close, but I see this weekend a Mile High Pedigree Tessie the Typist #13 8.5 sold for $6,572.50 (an easy 20x guide).  I have a copy of that issue I paid $22.49 for.  I'm sure others here can cite many examples.  If there is a bubble, its not isolated to one thing.

Personally, I think Okajima still has a very long ways to go. 

It looks like you are right about Okajimas. Probably true of other titles/pedigrees/genres as well. Considering your previous question, which I had not seriously thought about until just now (too busy trolling) , I suppose the difference between, say, a classic Baker cover selling for multiples of guide versus a lesser Okajima (so to speak), is that the Baker or a.n.other in that wheelhouse, is being sought for its intrinsic value, while the Okajima is being sought more for the back story. But regardless of which Okajima it is, the back story is always the same. Does that make a difference, or should it? I suppose the point is moot, since market forces will out regardless. I thought the tulip comparison was worth making because of its excess, and 10x guide for a lesser Okajima seems excessive to me (but clearly not to the buyer). I do wonder if we are on the cusp of a bubble with panelology, fuelled by those with deeper pockets or those who benefit in some way from the hype - presumably higher profits. The problem I have with my own thought there is that bubbles seem to have burst suddenly and unpredictably, for reasons easier to see in hindsight. I found your diagram helpful. Mania phase perhaps? If so I do find that concerning.

[Sqeggs]

On 5/15/2018 at 3:28 PM, Ricksneatstuff said:

On 5/15/2018 at 3:01 PM, october said:

Agreed. The Okajima backstory is interesting, maybe the most interesting of all pedigrees, but I have a hard time understanding how an otherwise VERY pedestrian run book rockets to 10x guide because of the association. 

This is also a recent phenomenon. Camp-era books did not used to command anywhere near this kind of premium. They are now arguably the most expensive of all pedigrees in terms of guide multiples, especially in low/mid grade at price points under $5k. 

and @MrBedrock How about 17X guide?

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/boy-comics-16-okajima-pedigree-lev-gleason-1944-cgc-fn-vf-70-white-pages/a/121816-14279.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

I know you both are far advanced in comicdom than I but I think the Okajima Camp books are seeing a next level interest. 

And that book doesn't have a WW II cover.  So you would think the Adventure 91 would close above $3.5K, but it may get back to the third bidder rule.  If we presume (which, of course, may not be true) that the underbidder on the Boy Comics 16 is still on the lookout for an Okajima camp-era book, then he or she is likely to be willing to bid an increment below what the Boy 16 went for.  But how high was the third bidder on the Boy 16 willing to go?  

He or she may end up setting the price on the Adventure 91.

But, of course, maybe the Boy 16 underbidder doesn't follow CLink auctions or another bidder not involved in the Heritage auction may come out of the woodwork for CLink auction or ...

[path4play]

On 5/17/2018 at 8:58 AM, Flex Mentallo said:

It looks like you are right about Okajimas. Probably true of other titles/pedigrees/genres as well. Considering your previous question, which I had not seriously thought about until just now (too busy trolling) , I suppose the difference between, say, a classic Baker cover selling for multiples of guide versus a lesser Okajima (so to speak), is that the Baker or a.n.other in that wheelhouse, is being sought for its intrinsic value, while the Okajima is being sought more for the back story. But regardless of which Okajima it is, the back story is always the same. Does that make a difference, or should it? I suppose the point is moot, since market forces will out regardless. I thought the tulip comparison was worth making because of its excess, and 10x guide for a lesser Okajima seems excessive to me (but clearly not to the buyer). I do wonder if we are on the cusp of a bubble with panelology, fuelled by those with deeper pockets or those who benefit in some way from the hype - presumably higher profits. The problem I have with my own thought there is that bubbles seem to have burst suddenly and unpredictably, for reasons easier to see in hindsight. I found your diagram helpful. Mania phase perhaps? If so I do find that concerning.

imo, its all cool stuff to chase based on opportunity, budget and what peaks your interest - genre, character, story arc, cover, artist and pedigree are all in the same beautiful GA mix.  If your in it for profit, I guess that's part of the capitalistic way.  If your blinded by hype, well then buyer beware - I personally would not presume there is any intrinsic value to any comic book.  Every book I buy I consider in its essence is just paper.

One difference perhaps from a stock bubble and a comic bubble is that I suspect a large portion of the supply will remain tightly held (i.e. not flushed in mass onto the market in a panic).  In fact, probably the bulk of holdings are with long term owners who bought much, much lower years ago so they are not underwater regardless.  I'd go so far as to say that in today's market if every camp era Okajima that existed came up for sale at once, it would probably only enhance the value there are so few copies.  I guess a bubble would be created by lots of speculators coming into the market running up a small number of books.  I have really no sense to evaluate if today's buyers are mostly speculators.  In the end, I just spend what my wife allows lol.

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by path4play

[path4play]

19 hours ago, path4play said:

imo, its all cool stuff to chase based on opportunity, budget and what peaks your interest - genre, character, story arc, cover, artist and pedigree are all in the same beautiful GA mix.  If your in it for profit, I guess that's part of the capitalistic way.  If your blinded by hype, well then buyer beware - I personally would not presume there is any intrinsic value to any comic book.  Every book I buy I consider in its essence is just paper.

One difference perhaps from a stock bubble and a comic bubble is that I suspect a large portion of the supply will remain tightly held (i.e. not flushed in mass onto the market in a panic).  In fact, probably the bulk of holdings are with long term owners who bought much, much lower years ago so they are not underwater regardless.  I'd go so far as to say that in today's market if every camp era Okajima that existed came up for sale at once, it would probably only enhance the value there are so few copies.  I guess a bubble would be created by lots of speculators coming into the market running up a small number of books.  I have really no sense to evaluate if today's buyers are mostly speculators.  In the end, I just spend what my wife allows lol.

 

 The sky is the limit.  Art purchased for $25k in 1997, $21MM in 2018 (that's x1,000).  http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/ct-ent-p-diddy-kerry-james-marshall-buyer-0518-story.html.  "The actual sale price stood the art world on its ear."

 

 

Edited May 19, 2018 by path4play

[path4play]

All is right with the world again - bubble alert called off.  Closed for a measly 6x guide.   

Congrats to buyer.

[Sqeggs]

3 minutes ago, path4play said:

All is right with the world again - bubble alert called off.  Closed for a measly 6x guide.   

Congrats to buyer.

Hammered at $2,107.  In a post above, I was predicting that it would go north of $3,500 based on the price of the Boy 16.  Another one of my predications sure to go wrong ... that went wrong.  In Bizarro World, I'm always right!

[entalmighty1]

3 minutes ago, Sqeggs said:

Hammered at $2,107.  In a post above, I was predicting that it would go north of $3,500 based on the price of the Boy 16.  Another one of my predications sure to go wrong ... that went wrong.  In Bizarro World, I'm always right!

I wonder if this thread had any impact on the final price?  

[Sqeggs]

Just now, entalmighty1 said:

I wonder if this thread had any impact on the final price?  

Could be.  I think the boards have been responsible for stoking the strong interest in this ped.  Maybe this time, they had a role in cooling it off, at least a bit.  Still a strong price when you consider that GPA indicates a 5.0 (non-ped) copy sold for only $245 in May 2017.

[PKJ]

I only own one Camp book and it is one of three keepers in the chance of a sell off. The ped/story is one of the most compelling to me regardless of the hobby.

[ender]

5 hours ago, PKJ said:

I only own one Camp book and it is one of three keepers in the chance of a sell off. The ped/story is one of the most compelling to me regardless of the hobby.

Agreed. I think it is fine to buy comics for the art, the stories I side, or the story of the original owner. In this case... It's a heck of a story

[podboy66]

I have one camp book as well.  Mr. Bedrock was kind enough to sell it to me for less than 10x guide.

[deadleg]

22 hours ago, Sqeggs said:

Could be.  I think the boards have been responsible for stoking the strong interest in this ped.  Maybe this time, they had a role in cooling it off, at least a bit.  Still a strong price when you consider that GPA indicates a 5.0 (non-ped) copy sold for only $245 in May 2017.

I would be lying if I said the boards didn't have any part in developing my interest in this pedigree. 

[sfcityduck]

My view on pedigrees is a bit different than what's been expressed on this thread.

First, I understand why a "pedigree" would enhance the value of a book over a comparable book in the same condition WHEN there is something really special about the backstory on the pedigree.  For example, I can see why someone would pay extra for a 9.0 Gaines file copy over a comparable 9.0 non-ped, because that ped was previously owned by a seminal figure in the history of E.C.  I can also see why someone would pay extra for a 9.0 Okajima camp copy over a comparable 9.0 non-ped, because there is something cool about knowing that the book made it through the Japanese internment, and this impact is multiplied if the book is WWII themed - especially if anti-Japanese.  And I can see why someone would pay more for a 9.0 Church book than a comparable 9.0 non-ped because that ped is a cool bit of comic collecting history.

But, second, I don't think a number of peds have really special backstories.  To me, the significance of a number of peds is limited to they are a grouping of better quality books.  That's it.  But, if that's all they are, why pay more for a book from those peds than a comparable non-ped book?  In this regard, it is worth noting that the vast majority of the highest prices ever paid for comic books were paid for non-peds.  Only 1 out of the top 15 highest prices was paid for a ped. Is anyone here going to pay the same or more for the pedigree Kansas City Action 1 (8.0) than the non-ped Action 1 9.0s because it is a ped and they aren't?  Nope.  It's the quality that matters, not the back story for many peds.  So why pay more for a ped copy when a non-ped copy is the same or better quality?  If there's no special backstory that enhances the value for you, there's no reason.

Third, I think that the fact that peds are "assigned" by a grading service is a big blow to the concept.  It's no longer that a group of books get designated as a "ped" because they garnered a premium in the market, it is that they are designated as a "ped" to try and get them a premium in the market.  So we see some strange decisions on what is ped worthy and what's not.

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by sfcityduck

[miraclemet]

On 5/15/2018 at 11:30 AM, miraclemet said:

Mid-grade camp era books: 5-7x market for non-ped copy (example the Captain Midnight)

High grade or classic cover, or military cover camp era books: 10x market for non-ped copy (example Yank on HA) 

Non-camp era books: 2x market for non-ped copy (but this can swell to 4x market if the market has been okajima dry for a while) (example Firehair on CC a few months back)

I'd expect this one to see around 10x market, in part due to these books rarely coming up for auction even with these stratospheric prices being realized and in part due to it being a Kirby/War cover (though not as "war" as some other ones)

guess the market decided this was one of the "Mid-grade camp era books: 5-7x market for non-ped copy"

 

congrats to the buyer!