CGC census is high, but there aren't enough keys 5 5

[zosocane]

 

3 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

there are more people than ever demanding comics right now...but the supply of almost all mainstream comics after 1960 is anything but scarce.

 

This.  FOMO (i.e., more people than ever demanding keys and semi-keys and classic covers now) ... and hoarding (post-1960 books are not scarce, and post-1965 books are not scarce at all  ... but many are HTF in grade in the current market).  How often do we see on Instagram pix of multiple copies of 48s, 181s, 300s ...

Edited August 22, 2018 by zosocane

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

....and that difference is absolutely astonishing. 

Even when the Marvel SA keys were on their relentless march to the stratosphere, the gap between high grade and not high grade widened.

Now...for the first time in comics history...that gap is narrowing. And not just with isolated examples; lower grade prices for these books have narrowed the gap for many books...AF #15, FF #1, TOS #39....it's thoroughly unprecedented. The highest grades are no longer accessible to anyone but millionaires (whereas, in 1988, you could buy a high grade AF #15 for less than the price of a nice used car...$2000-$2500 or so, now they're the price of a decent house in NY, LA, or SF), and we've reached the tipping point between available supply and the demand we see....and there's enough supply to see these trends on a regular, and more importantly, data-rich basis.

This would have happened with Golden Age, had there been the supply available...but it never has been. GA keys have been done in by their own scarcity. 

But books like AF #15, Hulk #1, Hulk #181...regardless of their populations relative to each other, are in supply abundant enough to drive the market insane. 

There are EIGHTEEN copies of Hulk #1 for sale on eBay right now. RIGHT NOW. As of this very moment. You got the money, you can own a copy of Hulk #1, in grades between .5 and 6.0, right now, just a click away. A copy can be in your hands in literally a day or so, anywhere in the world. There are FORTY SEVEN copies of AF #15 for sale, right now on eBay alone.

Have there been 18 copies of Action #1 sold in the last 5 years, in any venue, in any format...? Have there been 47 sales in the last 20 years...? No matter how much I want to, now matter how much money I have, I probably couldn't buy five copies of Action #1 right now. Or Tec #27. Or Pep #22. Or Suspense Comics #3. 

AF #15? Piece of cake. All it takes is money, and I could probably have one in each grade from 8.5 to 9.6 in a week or so. Say I'm a billionaire, and offer $5,000,000 for a 9.6. Am I really going to have that hard a time obtaining one of the 4 that are on the census (always, of course, assuming that actually represents four unique copies.) Would I even have to offer $5M, or would $2M make it happen? You think the BSDs don't know where these slabs are, and how to find them? Of course they do.

So, the abundance of available copies keeps those books in front of people's eyes, and keeps the flame of desire burning brightly, no less than that Christmas train set in the dept. store window, running day and night, did when you walked by with your mom as a kid. Every time you see it, it lights those neurons in your brain, and you "gotta have it." And as the prices of high grade copies has long since left the "new car" range for the "new house" range...and not just anywhere, but in the wealthiest areas in the world...now people scramble just to get ANY copy, because the tipping point of demand vs. available supply has been passed.

And that is something that has never happened in comics history before. It COULD have happened...and WOULD have happened in the 90s...for Golden Age, if GA existed in any sort of real supply. 

By the way...the same thing is happening in coins, too. People, no longer able to afford a nice example, or even a decent example, are now spending $$$ for problem coins, just to own one. 

i was just in a coin shop in Pasadena. I was talking to the 85 year old owner for awhile. (Getting my Leica repaired next door at the camera shop). My throat is still raw and sore from the cigarette smoke.

It was a really, really  sad experience. 

I'm not sure if that has anything to do with your post and I'm sorry if it's not. 

Edited August 22, 2018 by NoMan

[RockMyAmadeus]

14 minutes ago, NoMan said:

i was just in a coin shop in Pasadena. I was talking to the 85 year old owner for awhile. (Getting my Leica repaired next door at the camera shop). My throat is still raw and sore from the cigarette smoke.

It was a really, really  sad experience. 

I'm not sure if that has anything to do with your post and I'm sorry if it's not. 

Pasadena Coin Co on Colorado Blvd?

[NoMan]

20 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Pasadena Coin Co on Colorado Blvd?

No. It's on Walnut. Forgot the name. the jist of it was, Lots of adults and children used to collect coins, today nobody does. No one is interested in them. At all. 

I just looked up the Pasadena Coin Company. Yeah, pass that place all the time. The exterior of that place just about sums up coin collecting:

https://www.yelp.com/biz/pasadena-coin-and-stamp-company-pasadena

Edited August 22, 2018 by NoMan

[DavidTheDavid]

Coins have minimal cultural cache, perhaps? Is pop culture the primary driver for collectibles that would fall outside the fine art category? GA comics have limited cultural cache of course. How are stamps faring? Movie posters?

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

4 hours ago, zosocane said:

7 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

there are more people than ever demanding comics right now...but the supply of almost all mainstream comics after 1960 is anything but scarce.

 

This.  FOMO (i.e., more people than ever demanding keys and semi-keys and classic covers now) ... and hoarding (post-1960 books are not scarce, and post-1965 books are not scarce at all  ... but many are HTF in grade in the current market).  How often do we see on Instagram pix of multiple copies of 48s, 181s, 300s ...

Not very often, but I ran across one today...

[RockMyAmadeus]

3 hours ago, NoMan said:

Lots of adults and children used to collect coins, today nobody does. No one is interested in them. At all. 

Was that the store's takeaway, or your own? Coins are on fire today, and have been for quite some time. The 50 state quarter program saved the hobby.

There are new records being set for coins all the time....the Eliasberg 1913 Liberty 5c just sold for $4.56M a few days ago.

The fourth....yes, the FOURTH...known example of the 1854-S $5 just sold for $2.1 million last week...the first discovery of a new example since 1946.

And, as mentioned, even at the bottom end, collectors are having to "make do" with problem coins, because problem-free coins across the board are so expensive. Try finding any problem free New Orleans $20 pieces for less than 5 figures. It's tough. Even a REPAIRED example of the 1856-O $20 sold for $132,000 recently...and that's usually the kiss of death, into the melting pot you go.

Not anymore.

[NoMan]

9 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Was that the store's takeaway, or your own? 

It’s what the store owner said. He had a gun so I didn’t argue. 

[Gatsby77]

17 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The only books that survived the late 90s crash were the keys in high grade, and most of Golden Age, which has always operated as a different market. It's not reflected on GPA, because GPA didn't exist, but Showcase New England...hardly a fly by night operation...ran an auction in mid 2001 on eBay, which contained (almost) every Marvel SA key, some slabbed. The FF #1 was raw, graded VG...sold for $800 and change.

Also sold a CGC graded 4.5 AF #15...price?

$2700 or thereabouts.

Supply and demand can be an issue...there are more people than ever demanding comics right now...but the supply of almost all mainstream comics after 1960 is anything but scarce.

I remember this auction.

Part of it included a whole stack of Ghost Rider (1950) # 1 - like 30-40 copies in grades from VG/F to VF+. The books were hard to grade because most looked 9.0+ from the front but had signficant dust shadows on the back cover. Showcase New England dumped them all at once, via individual auctions just a few minutes apart.

That find alone is likely the reason there are now more than 100 copies on the census graded above 6.0.

Just mentioning it for how insane that Showcase New England auction was. There were the Silver Age books, and then random pockets of select Golden Age books in bulk.

[VintageComics]

On 8/21/2018 at 11:52 AM, RockMyAmadeus said:

To try and include the 12 year old kid whose comics were not organized, not cared for, and which were under constant threat of being tossed out by mom as a "collector" is ridiculous.

But at least you understand the broader point I'm making, whether you agree or not.

You keep adjusting goal posts.

Organized is relative. Mine were kept in a pile in a drawer when I was in my single digit years.

And they were taken out often and admired, read and studied.

Some 7 year olds may have been much more stringent at preserving their books and this usually happened when an older relative showed them how. For me personally, my parents were very much 'anti comics' and hated them. Does that make me less of a collector at age 7?

Because some parents wanted to throw their children's books out that means the kids weren't collectors?

Preposterous.

On 8/21/2018 at 2:41 PM, sfcityduck said:

On 8/21/2018 at 11:47 AM, sfcityduck said:

And the definition of "collector" I use is simple:  Someone who seeks out, buys, and holds on to comic books because they love comic books.  No need to seek out other collectors, author fanzines, or attend conventions to be a "collector" or comic "fan."  And, yes, there were many many many comic collectors 12 and under - including those who kept collecting and are on this board.  

That's my point.  Agree or disagree?

Fully agree.

I was absolutely a collector before I was 10, in the mid to late 70's. There are certainly 1000's of others that were as well but more likely 10,000's.

As Aman said, every major college campus had Marvel fan clubs by 1972 (I think that was the date he stated).

Edited August 24, 2018 by VintageComics

[Lazyboy]

15 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

15 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

It's interesting that you intentionally cut "My uncle still has a box that contains his childhood comics. He is not and never was a comic collector." out of the quote...

Because that was not the part of your comment I was addressing.  I don't doubt your statement at all.  But, I also don't know anything about your Uncle and why he retained his childhood comics.  I do know the definition I proposed, and the objection you made to it.  And that's what I addressed by asking the question I did.

How do you think he got them? They didn't just fall out of the sky into his lap. He intentionally bought them himself and has obviously held onto them since then. By your very loose definition, that makes him a collector. But he actually isn't.

Just because somebody bought some comics and never threw them away or otherwise disposed of them, that doesn't automatically make them a collector. On the flip side, somebody's mother disposing of their comics (or threatening to do so) doesn't automatically make them not a collector. Some parents are just .

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

On the flip side, somebody's mother disposing of their comics (or threatening to do so) doesn't automatically make them not a collector. Some parents are just .

A collector would convince his parents that he took his hobby seriously, like that kid in that 1940s picture, cataloging, storing, and preserving them. 

Are they in heaps all over the floor? Then they're trash, and you're not a collector.

Are they in a box that never got thrown out, but which you never looked at again after their initial purchase? Then you're not a collector.

Are they neatly stacked in their own place, with some type of cataloging system, and systematic effort made to storing and preserving them? Then you're a collector.

Very few are the parents who would throw something away that a kid takes an obvious responsibility for. Does that mean some mothers won't toss them out anyway? No, but it greatly reduces the risk of it. 

It isn't any one factor that determines who was, and who was not, a collector...it's all the factors listed above.

[sfcityduck]

56 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

A collector would convince his parents that he took his hobby seriously, like that kid in that 1940s picture, cataloging, storing, and preserving them. 

Are they in heaps all over the floor? Then they're trash, and you're not a collector.

Are they in a box that never got thrown out, but which you never looked at again after their initial purchase? Then you're not a collector.

Are they neatly stacked in their own place, with some type of cataloging system, and systematic effort made to storing and preserving them? Then you're a collector.

Very few are the parents who would throw something away that a kid takes an obvious responsibility for. Does that mean some mothers won't toss them out anyway? No, but it greatly reduces the risk of it. 

It isn't any one factor that determines who was, and who was not, a collector...it's all the factors listed above.

You speak like a coin collector - fixated on condition.  There are plenty of comic collectors whose fixation is on storylines.  Kids who collect comics to read, not preserve.  Who buy runs because they want to know the full story of __________ (fill in the blank - for me it was X-Men primarily when I was a kid), not because they want to "preserve" the comics unread and in unchanging condition.  To pretend that this is not a legitimate collecting goal pretty much denies the whole non-investing purpose of buying comics.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

10 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

You speak like a coin collector - fixated on condition.  There are plenty of comic collectors whose fixation is on storylines.  Kids who collect comics to read, not preserve.  Who buy runs because they want to know the full story of __________ (fill in the blank - for me it was X-Men primarily when I was a kid), not because they want to "preserve" the comics unread and in unchanging condition.  To pretend that this is not a legitimate collecting goal pretty much denies the whole non-investing purpose of buying comics.

 

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

11 hours ago, sfcityduck said:

You speak like a coin collector - fixated on condition. 

? And? That is a very convoluted analogy, to the point being discussed. Sort of:

Titanic artifacts collectors are fixated on boats that sink.

[sfcityduck]

12 minutes ago, Mr.Mcknowitall said:

? And? That is a very convoluted analogy, to the point being discussed. Sort of:

Titanic artifacts collectors are fixated on boats that sink.

Let me be clearer.  Comic collectors can and do have diverse goals.  For some, the goal is to collect the best examples of a comic they can, even if it is entombed in plastic such that they can never read the thing, just to possess it and preserve it.  For others, the goal is to read every story about a particular character.  They don't necessarily care what condition their comics are as long as they are readable, and they don't stress that their reading of the comic - probably multiple times - will cause the comic to descend in grade.  My own experience in the 70s and 80s was that most comic collectors fell into the later category.  These days, or at least on these boards (which is a self-selecting sample that likely biases my perception), there are a lot of collectors who fall into the former.  But they are both legitimate collecting goals.  There are many other collecting goals. 

My definition of what a comic collector is tries to encompass whatever your goal is. "Someone who seeks out, buys, and holds on to comic books because they love comic books."  You may love comics because you want to read the stories over and over and over again, you may love them because they are minty fresh and you want to possess and preserve high grade examples, you may love them because of the cover art, or love them for the back cover ads, or whatever.  It just doesn't matter under my definition.

Which is why I reject RMA's statement above.  It's reflective of one comic collecting goal, one I view as akin to viewing comic books as coins - the focus is on condition and variants.  Entombing started with coins, and basically converts a comic meant to be read into an object with just a front and back like a coin.  So I get its a common and legitimate collecting goal and attitude, it's just not the only common and legitimate collecting goal and attitude.

Edited August 24, 2018 by sfcityduck

[sfcityduck]

It might be helpful to list various collecting goals I've seen:

* Read character's stories;

* Gain wealth;

* Preserve the objects;

* Display the objects (which is often incompatible with preservation);

* Enhance self-esteem;

* Enjoy the search;

* Enjoy the culture and network of collectors;

* Own all of something (variants of a particular issue, every certified pedigree, every issue in a run, every issue by a publisher, every comic by an artist; you name it);

* Enjoy the cover art;

* To possess a piece of history;

and I guess I could go on.  

Our definition of comic collectors should include and recognise the diversity of collecting goals.

Edited August 24, 2018 by sfcityduck

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

4 minutes ago, sfcityduck said:

Let me be clearer.  Comic collectors can and do have diverse goals.  For some, the goal is to collect the best examples of a comic they can, even if it is entombed in plastic such that they can never read the thing, just to possess it and preserve it.  For others, the goal is to read every story about a particular character.  They don't necessarily care what condition their comics are as long as they are readable, and they don't stress that their reading of the comic - probably multiple times - will cause the comic to descend in grade.  My own experience in the 70s and 80s was that most comic collectors fell into the later category.  These days, or at least on these boards (which is a self-selecting sample that likely biases my perception), there are a lot of collectors who fall into the former.  But they are both legitimate collecting goals.  There are many other collecting goals. 

My definition of what a comic collector is tries to encompass whatever your goal is. "Someone who seeks out, buys, and holds on to comic books because they love comic books."  You may love comics because you want to read the stories over and over and over again, you may love them because they are minty fresh and you want to possess and preserve high grade examples, you may love them because of the cover art, or love them for the back cover ads, or whatever.  It just doesn't matter under my definition.

Which is why I reject RMA's statement above.  It's reflective of one comic collecting goal, one I view as akin to viewing comic books as coins - the focus is on condition and variants.  Entombing started with coins, and basically converts a comic meant to be read into an object with just a front and back like a coin.  So I get its a common and legitimate collecting goal and attitude, it's just not the only common and legitimate collecting goal and attitude.

You just described coin collectors. What is missing from your position is: many children that "collected" when young, moved on to other things, and did not return until many years later. Sure, they kept an interest, stopping at this venue or that venue, or a passing social discussion that touched on the subject. 

But (there is always a "but") those early unguided fleeting pursuits were by no means the "collector" that you present. It was much more similar to what RMA presented, IMHO.

When I was a kid, every department store sold coins and stamps. J.C. Penny, Sears, Monkey Ward, Zayres, etc. Peoples even sold stamps. guess what? Right along side comics. The majority of kids.....by an overwhelming margin....did not become the "collector" you describe. I received stamps/coins/albums/books as gifts from my parents, during my childhood "I want that" years. It stuck, for me, but not in the manner you present and certainly not in the interest level you present, and certainly not at the level you describe.

I have to see the RMA position as a bit more convincing.

[VintageComics]

12 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

A collector would convince his parents that he took his hobby seriously, like that kid in that 1940s picture, cataloging, storing, and preserving them. 

Are they in heaps all over the floor? Then they're trash, and you're not a collector.

Are they in a box that never got thrown out, but which you never looked at again after their initial purchase? Then you're not a collector.

Are they neatly stacked in their own place, with some type of cataloging system, and systematic effort made to storing and preserving them? Then you're a collector.

Very few are the parents who would throw something away that a kid takes an obvious responsibility for. Does that mean some mothers won't toss them out anyway? No, but it greatly reduces the risk of it. 

It isn't any one factor that determines who was, and who was not, a collector...it's all the factors listed above.

No, it is the mindset of the individual doing the collecting.

My parents were ordered by a doctor to throw out my comics because they were giving me nightmares.

It doesn't mean I wasn't a collector.

I sorted my books, treasured them, accumulated them, read them and studied them (artwork, ads, everything). I literally worshipped comics and got bullied and beat up for it in grade school (which ended when I was 12). That carried on into high school.

And I'm absolutely POSTIVE that there were 1000's of kids like me across the country.

I didn't realize there was a 'confirmation age' where collectors were officially accepted as such like in the Catholic church. What's next? An inquisition and people have to provide some sort of certificate or visual proof to prove that they were actual collectors?

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

23 minutes ago, Mr.Mcknowitall said:

? And? That is a very convoluted analogy, to the point being discussed. Sort of:

Titanic artifacts collectors are fixated on boats that sink.

Indeed, so convoluted as to be meaningless. The very premise isn't accurate, so everything built on that foundation is, necessarily, inaccurate. 

The issue isn't "condition"...it's preservation. 

If you don't seek to preserve your "collection" in a meaningful way...then you're not a collector. You're a hoarder. 

It has nothing to do with being "fixated on condition." It is a fundamental acknowledgement that if you don't PRESERVE your collection, then you are doing the OPPOSITE of collecting...and the items you purport to be "collecting" will be lost to attrition. 

It's foolishness to classify someone as a "collector" who makes no effort to preserve the things they claim to be collecting...it negates the very definition of the word "collector."

"What are all these comic books strewn all over the floor?"

"Oh, that's my collection."

"Collection....?? I don't think that word means what you think it means."