Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[delekkerste]

Further to my point above, Julia Roberts recently listed her Gold Coast Greenwich Village penthouse apartment for $4.5 million, which is not that much more than the $3.895 million she paid in 2010. Why so little (price appreciation)? Because it's a co-op. If it was a condo, you'd have to add a million or two to the price, easily. I mean, $4.5 million in the current market is not much above starter home level when the average price of new construction condos is coming in around $3.5 million in the better areas these days.

 

As an aside, as nice as Roberts' apartment is, it doesn't have a washer/dryer in the unit (many co-ops don't have and don't allow them). Only in NYC can you spend almost $5 million on a place to live without a washer/dryer.

[delekkerste]

Another note for those of us living in the NYC area: Wall Street is in the middle of a multi-year downsizing with real wages (salaries + bonuses) down meaningfully from the 2010 peak. This for all four branches of 'sell-side' sales & trading, investment banking, asset management, and proprietary trading (yes that still exits).

 

I have a good friend who's a Director at one of the big I-banks. He's been looking to finally buy a place in the city with his wife after living in university-subsidized housing for a long time (I know the feeling; I lived in a rent-stabilized place for 11 years, which kept me from buying a place when prices were dirt cheap compared to today, and I have a hedge fund buddy who's been in the same rent-stabilized place for more than 20 years and still hasn't bought a place!) Anyway, my banker friend and his wife have a budget of $2.5 million and they can't find anything worth buying.

 

After he told me this, I went to the NYTimes.com real estate search engine to see for myself. He's right. It's not that you can't find a decent place to live for $2.5 million, but certainly nowhere you'd feel good about spending that much money on. To really get anything that says "wow, this is really nice", you've got to spend into the $3 millions at a minimum these days (for areas in Manhattan where you'd actually want to live). Anything in the $1s and $2 millions is simply not going to be that great, sad to say. I fear that, barring some unexpected financial windfall, my next move will be out of NYC, as the cost to upgrade from my current co-op (which, again, has barely appreciated in the 8 years I've owned it) to, say, a nice condo, just isn't worth the price differential at this point.

[Bronty]

^ I find that quite interesting because there's a ton of foreign buyers where I live as well (outside of Vancouver) and much speculation about the effect of the foreign buyers on the price of real estate. Here, we aren't able to quantify the foreign effect on prices even if the anecdotal evidence is huge. In your situation it sounds much easier to have a real gauge on how much foreign buying is propping up prices.

 

It does all seem pretty insane. My parents are older and have been looking at selling their home and have accepted an offer that was 15% more than the high offer from six months ago (which was in itself quite good at the time). Ok so interest rates here have somehow actually dropped slightly in the interim but certainly not enough for that kind of price appreciation

[dem1138]

As much as me and my family love living in NYC, having lived here for over 15 years, I no longer see the long-term upside in staying here. Most of what made living here worthwhile (unique dining experiences, the ability to walk everywhere, the energy, the ability to walk out of your door with no plans and wind up having a remarkable day, new places to go and see all of the time) has disappeared to where gas stations become condos, hospitals become condos, that great deli around the corner is now a Chase bank, that donut shop is now a Starbucks, plus its freezing cold for 7+ months of the year. And yes, it has absolutely become a homogenized playground for the ultra wealthy. Its not that it wasn't that before, but the city used to have pockets of that and now its basically the entire island. At this point, they can have it because that CBGBs/Andy Warhol vibe, heck even The Strokes vibe, which was a horrific knockoff, is GONE. But hey, there is great coffee here.

[The Less Blob]

This is why I moved to Brooklyn (and not one of the neighborhoods usually on the radar). What in a fake 2B staring at a brick wall got me in Manhattan paid for 3 floors, 7 bedrooms, a driveway, a garage, and a backyard where I am now and the commute to Wall Street and the courts is only about 10 minutes longer. While I do miss my old penthouse apartment with 11 foot ceilings and a river view, a 1B doesn't cut it with kids. The main difference (other than about 2500 extra square feet of house) now is that, other than not walking by Zabaars or Fairway on my way home, my food delivery options shut down around 10:30-11 other than Papa John's (yuck) whereas in Manhattan they stayed open longer. Oh yeah, and once in a while people get killed in my area, but not that often (and usually not yuppies or failed yuppies like me). And I am constantly worried about getting robbed (hasn't happened yet). And I have racoons in my backyard (which might be an improvement over bats attacking from Riverside Park).

 

And now I have about 500 square feet I can devote to housing my comics!!!

[dem1138]

You're not missing anything. My wife and I lived on the UWS for 2 years before moving to the West Village. I've never ever in my entire life lived among more spoiled babies who could not have been more entitled if they were royalty. The population at large were the most self-entitled people I've ever come across. I still hate going up there, which we still do occasionally with our kids. And it usually takes less than 5 minutes to be reminded how self absorbed most of the people are. Its as if they grew up in this bubble of family money and privilege and never learned the concept of considering the world around them. I hate to make sweeping generalizations but this sentiment was so clearly pervasive up there that its just become fact to me. Surprisingly, the West Village is one of the last bastions of a neighborhood in the city with some of the most lovely people we've ever met. There's still a real history and sense of community there. Too bad its also the most expensive area to live in the entire city as well.

[delekkerste]

As much as me and my family love living in NYC, having lived here for over 15 years, I no longer see the long-term upside in staying here. Most of what made living here worthwhile (unique dining experiences, the ability to walk everywhere, the energy, the ability to walk out of your door with no plans and wind up having a remarkable day, new places to go and see all of the time) has disappeared to where gas stations become condos, hospitals become condos, that great deli around the corner is now a Chase bank, that donut shop is now a Starbucks, plus its freezing cold for 7+ months of the year. And yes, it has absolutely become a homogenized playground for the ultra wealthy. Its not that it wasn't that before, but the city used to have pockets of that and now its basically the entire island. At this point, they can have it because that CBGBs/Andy Warhol vibe, heck even The Strokes vibe, which was a horrific knockoff, is GONE. But hey, there is great coffee here.

 

Yup, great idea - close St. Vincent's Hospital (which, at the time, was the only hospital with an emergency room serving our neighborhood in Manhattan) and replace it with $3,000+ per square foot condos.

 

The city loses a bit of its character every year, with local neighborhood stalwarts continuing to be replaced by condos or national chains year after year (let's not forget that Bowlmor Lanes and everything else on that entire block of University has been cleaned out to build condos). That said, it's still a great place to live while you're young and carefree and/or if you have money to burn. If you're not in the top 0.1%, though, and have to shell out $2-3K/square foot for housing and $50K a year to send your 6-year old to school...

[Hamlet]

Further to my point above, Julia Roberts recently listed her Gold Coast Greenwich Village penthouse apartment for $4.5 million, which is not that much more than the $3.895 million she paid in 2010. Why so little (price appreciation)? Because it's a co-op. If it was a condo, you'd have to add a million or two to the price, easily. I mean, $4.5 million in the current market is not much above starter home level when the average price of new construction condos is coming in around $3.5 million in the better areas these days.

 

As an aside, as nice as Roberts' apartment is, it doesn't have a washer/dryer in the unit (many co-ops don't have and don't allow them). Only in NYC can you spend almost $5 million on a place to live without a washer/dryer.

 

Those numbers just boggle my mind. Here in frozen tundra of the Minneapolis area, That kind of money will get you a nice big lake house in the metro area, and we seem crazy expensive to my father, who lives in Michigan.

 

I'm actually looking for a new house, but my wife and I have too many required criteria. When we find the unicorn, we'll need to move fast because nothing good is sitting on the market where we are looking. It either sells in less than a week, is a weird property with huge issues, or it is wildly overpriced.

 

In the meantime we will continue to be crammed into our little **spoon**-shack.

[chromium]

As much as me and my family love living in NYC, having lived here for over 15 years, I no longer see the long-term upside in staying here. Most of what made living here worthwhile (unique dining experiences, the ability to walk everywhere, the energy, the ability to walk out of your door with no plans and wind up having a remarkable day, new places to go and see all of the time) has disappeared to where gas stations become condos, hospitals become condos, that great deli around the corner is now a Chase bank, that donut shop is now a Starbucks, plus its freezing cold for 7+ months of the year. And yes, it has absolutely become a homogenized playground for the ultra wealthy. Its not that it wasn't that before, but the city used to have pockets of that and now its basically the entire island. At this point, they can have it because that CBGBs/Andy Warhol vibe, heck even The Strokes vibe, which was a horrific knockoff, is GONE. But hey, there is great coffee here.

 

Very interesting post..I spent 2 months every Summer in Manhattan from 1991 through to 1999 (Meatpacking District) and saw the area change from a place where you didn't feel safe after dark (a lot of after hours clubs and tranny hookers who could really chase you down in their 6-inch heels if you weren't careful) to a gentrified area with lots of nice (Belgian !) restaurants and pubs.

I knew the city pretty well after all those Summers but haven't been back since 1999...that is until tomorrow when I leave for NYC again. From reading what you just posted I will be in for quite a shock

 

[dem1138]

There were two events that occurred over the last year that really summed it up for me. The 100+ year old Montessori School that we sent our daughter to that was a stalwart of the community decided to close at year end mid-way through the school year. No input from the families, just a sweeping unilateral decision to close and sell the building for 30+ million. Then our neighborhood restaurant, that was just a really special word-of-mouth hidden gem with a great vibe and a fantastic staff that got to know their customers and always made accommodations for us abruptly closed with no warning. And it wasn't due to the typical rent hike but to a technicality that allowed the landlord to shut down this successful restaurant. Why? Because they want to sell the vacated building for 80 million. Both will be replaced by what? Condos.

[dem1138]

As much as me and my family love living in NYC, having lived here for over 15 years, I no longer see the long-term upside in staying here. Most of what made living here worthwhile (unique dining experiences, the ability to walk everywhere, the energy, the ability to walk out of your door with no plans and wind up having a remarkable day, new places to go and see all of the time) has disappeared to where gas stations become condos, hospitals become condos, that great deli around the corner is now a Chase bank, that donut shop is now a Starbucks, plus its freezing cold for 7+ months of the year. And yes, it has absolutely become a homogenized playground for the ultra wealthy. Its not that it wasn't that before, but the city used to have pockets of that and now its basically the entire island. At this point, they can have it because that CBGBs/Andy Warhol vibe, heck even The Strokes vibe, which was a horrific knockoff, is GONE. But hey, there is great coffee here.

 

Very interesting post..I spent 2 months every Summer in Manhattan from 1991 through to 1999 (Meatpacking District) and saw the area change from a place where you didn't feel safe after dark (a lot of after hours clubs and tranny hookers who could really chase you down in their 6-inch heels if you weren't careful) to a gentrified area with lots of nice (Belgian !) restaurants and pubs.

I knew the city pretty well after all those Summers but haven't been back since 1999...that is until tomorrow when I leave for NYC again. From reading what you just posted I will be in for quite a shock

 

You will hardly recognize the Meatpacking District now. Its one of the more high-end neighborhoods in the city now with very high-end restaurants and hotels and the High Line and the new Guggenheim Museum and the Apple Store. Its definitely a cool area to walk around but yes, you will be in for quite a shock. There's a lot to do and see there though.

[The Less Blob]

Yup, great idea - close St. Vincent's Hospital (which, at the time, was the only hospital with an emergency room serving our neighborhood in Manhattan) and replace it with $3,000+ per square foot condos.

--------

 

my eldest was born at st. vincent's.

 

roger's time machine was right around the corner, but alas, he had to move to smaller more cramped digs, but at least he is still around. for now.

[entalmighty1]

As an aside, as nice as Roberts' apartment is, it doesn't have a washer/dryer in the unit (many co-ops don't have and don't allow them). Only in NYC can you spend almost $5 million on a place to live without a washer/dryer.

 

It's sentences like this that make me so glad I live in the south, despite the brutal summer we're having this year.

 

I could build a life-size replica of Taj Mahal here for 5 million bucks.

[The Less Blob]

 

 

Very interesting post..I spent 2 months every Summer in Manhattan from 1991 through to 1999 (Meatpacking District) and saw the area change from a place where you didn't feel safe after dark (a lot of after hours clubs and tranny hookers who could really chase you down in their 6-inch heels if you weren't careful) to a gentrified area with lots of nice (Belgian !) restaurants and pubs.

I knew the city pretty well after all those Summers but haven't been back since 1999...that is until tomorrow when I leave for NYC again. From reading what you just posted I will be in for quite a shock

 

oh it was safe enough. i used to go clubbing (as in going to dance clubs, not hitting people over the head with a club) down there in the late 80's back when places in NYC never asked for ID if you were coming in with pretty girls (I was a teenager). not that i enjoyed dancing much, but if that's where the girls want you to go, you play along. just be polite to transgender hookers (i don't know if "tranny" is the polite term nowadays) and they will not try to beat you up.

 

 

[The Less Blob]

As an aside, as nice as Roberts' apartment is, it doesn't have a washer/dryer in the unit (many co-ops don't have and don't allow them). Only in NYC can you spend almost $5 million on a place to live without a washer/dryer.

 

It's sentences like this that make me so glad I live in the south, despite the brutal summer we're having this year.

 

I could build a life-size replica of Taj Mahal here for 5 million bucks.

 

I'm sure the building has a nice laundry room where Ms. Robertson's maid can clean her laundry or concierge pick up to send it to the dry cleaners.

 

Frankly, I did not mind not having one in my apartment as I would have lost a precious closet.

 

Doesn't she own like half of that building anyway? I remember reading an article about how she was buying up the apartments to connect them between floors and what not. But that was 10 years ago.

 

Anyway, yeah, my wife is back on the "we need to move south" bender.

[mrwoogieman]

Half my practice is dealing with condos and coops here in NYC. Talk about self-absorbed people!!

 

Meanwhile, let's not forget the comics market. Here is an article from today's USA Today on comic investing starring Vincent from Metro.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/08/04/comic-book-investing-story/30573299/

 

 

[dem1138]

Without a doubt, hands down, NYC is the best place for comics. There are multiple comic book conventions both massive (NYCC) and small (the Clifton, NJ and surrounding area shows that JP throws) on a regular basis, and there are a multitude of buyers and sellers here. I have done countless deals in person here at shows, meeting at random locations around the city and Long Island, and around the corner from my apartment. More than once I've walked around the corner from my apartment, a car or SUV pulls up, I open the door and do the deal, and we both go our separate ways. I LOVE NYC for comic deals. It is THE best place in the world bar none. If there's one thing I will massively regret leaving NYC its the ability to do these types of deals. And I also collect original comic art, and while the best collections I've ever seen are out in LA, there is a much more social network here for gatherings and so I've made the best friends in the hobby through the gatherings that have taken place here.

[wombat]

I'm kind of hooked on watching real estate shows. Anytime they are in NYC I'm always amazed at what you get (or don't get) for millions of dollars. Its mind bottling.

[SweetComic]

The moderns are flourishing right now because everyone seems to have money to throw around. If there is another crash like the one in 08 I would think moderns would level off but the GA/SA books would hold their own. Its almost like we didn't learn anything from the 1990s speculation. The older books have already earned their value. Not many people were buying books so that they would have a "grail" it was all about reading and enjoying the books.

[The Less Blob]

You're not missing anything. My wife and I lived on the UWS for 2 years before moving to the West Village. I've never ever in my entire life lived among more spoiled babies who could not have been more entitled if they were royalty. The population at large were the most self-entitled people I've ever come across. I still hate going up there, which we still do occasionally with our kids.

 

------

 

I was born and raised on west 84th street. When my folks moved there in the 60's and I grew up in the 70's it could still be rough, which is why they were able to buy their 4 bedroom apartment for $8,700. the owner after them sold it for $2.5 million in 2005. I have no idea what it is worth now. I don't want to think about it. Lived on the UWS for 34.5 years. And I hate to say I probably agree with you for the most part. And frankly, it's amazing how people move there from wherever and they become that way too. It's not like people had money in the 70's either. Some did, some didn't.

 

And yet, despite all that loot and families with spoiled kids, there IS NOT ONE comic shop left in that entire neighborhood. In the 80s and 90s there were always 3-4. In fact, I don't think there is a shop on the west side above 40th street where midtown comics is. There are 1 or 2 left on the east side. To put it in perspective, probably a population of 750,000+ between there and the top of manhattan comic-less!