Too rare to rise? 2 2

[ThothAmon]

23 hours ago, valiantman said:

Between 2006 and 2018, the price for a CGC 6.0 New York World's Fair 1939 (April/May 1939) moved from $3,900 to $6,000, a +54% change.  In 2006, a CGC 6.0 Superman #6 (late-1940) sold for $700, and the most recent sale was $2,800, a +300% change

Based upon my own experience as a buyer I believe you are correct.  So many people are turning to GPA to help them evaluate purchase price that those GA books that RARELY turn over provide difficult comps for today's buyers and sellers.  In the above example the NYWF (a historic book for sure but not a classic cover) has returned a compounded 3.99 percent per year for the time period stated versus 13.43 a year for the Superman (which is certainly a classic cover).  Another way to think of this that might better explain the phenomenon is to think of the MILE HIGH NYWF as a 30 year treasury bond and the Superman as a share of Microsoft (IH 181 is a share of Apple).  In a collapse the last to go will be the treasury bond.

[valiantman]

4 minutes ago, path4play said:

I've posited this myself.  Acknowledging there are literally dozens of factors that effect pricing, I too have at least felt (lacking any real empirical evidence, just observation) if a book is so rare that it virtually never comes up the interest level can seem muted, whereas books that are churning and rising seem to continue to generate further feeding frenzy.   

You used the word "posited", mentioned empirical evidence, and agreed with my premise. 

 

[path4play]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

You used the word "posited", mentioned empirical evidence, and agreed with my premise. 

 

Too funny.  Plus, I've been known to do some data analytics in my time

[sfcityduck]

30 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I'm 42. 

Which means you are now a member of a protected class:  Those old enough to sue for old age discrimination in employment.  

Edited August 23, 2018 by sfcityduck

[podboy66]

1 hour ago, Timely said:

Leading Comics are stagnant. Star Spangled Comics are stagnant. Marvel Mystery Comics are NOT stagnant.  If that were the case I'd be winning every one I bid on.  I loose 95%+ of the time as 1 or more people bid higher than me.  And I'm a pretty aggressive buyer!

Fully agree.

[lou_fine]

On 8/22/2018 at 4:23 PM, bluechip said:

I have noted this myself in the past.   Books that are not only equivalent to more common books but actually more significant in one way or another will sometimes not rise as much.  It's partially that they don't change hands often enough but also that there aren't as many people out there with duplicate copies actively supporting the value of the books. 

 

11 hours ago, october said:

A certain amount of market churn is needed to establish a baseline price, especially for more expensive issues. Prices generally climb rung by rung, not by leaps and bounds. It's hard for a book to reach milestone like $100,000 without a lot of sales at ever increasing smaller increments. 

+2

As I have stated many times in the past on these boards here, extreme rarity will definitely hinder a book's upward movement in terms of market valuation.  

You most certainly do need the book to turn over with other copies supporting and validating the previous prices paid in order to have a book continue to increase in market value over a period of time.  

[Roger66]

On 8/22/2018 at 6:13 PM, valiantman said:

There seems to be some kind of market minimum quantity necessary for comic books (of all ages) to experience significant price increases, and the rarest books don't seem to meet that minimum.  It seems there are a number of early 1940s books which sell for significantly more money than mid-to-late 1930s books, even though there's nothing particularly special about those 1940s books and the number of copies is actually higher.  The only difference seems to be that the 1940s books are sold more often, creating a market-in-motion, while the mid-to-late 1930s books may go years without sales, resulting in a stagnant market.

Too rare to rise? 

 

When I returned to collecting after a 30+ year hiatus I knew nothing about the Boards community, GPA, CGC, the CGC census or even how to do an advanced search on eBay to see past sales.  I simply bought without any consultation with anyone, I bought out of love and paid what I felt I needed to pay in order to possess a certain HTF book.  In the process I likely set a highs on GPA but I was oblivious to all of that and only focused on what I was willing to pay for each book I desired.  All of this GPA, census and market talk is understandable but to me it creates a fiction about this hobby.  The fiction being that a particular book is indeed worth a certain price because someone out there is willing to pay that price as opposed to a book being worth whatever you the individual wants to pay for it.  Keep in mind I am not talking about common books but about the 'special' GA or early SA ones we covet and collect.  I find my being connected now to GPA etc has at times limited my vision on what I am willing to pay as well as made me overpay at times too.  Thus try not to overthink or over examine a purchase of a book you love like it is a stock esp one that might indeed be HTF if not scarce or you get stuck in the web of market expectations as opposed to the freedom of just collecting and buying as you see fit.  Of course if you are into this hobby as a dealer and or flipper - than you can ignore this reply. 

[jimbo_7071]

6 hours ago, Timely said:

Leading Comics are stagnant. Star Spangled Comics are stagnant. Marvel Mystery Comics are NOT stagnant.  If that were the case I'd be winning every one I bid on.  I loose 95%+ of the time as 1 or more people bid higher than me.  And I'm a pretty aggressive buyer!

You have nearly a complete run, including some highest graded copies, true? I'd venture to guess that whatever copies you're bidding on are at the top of the census or close to it. Those aren't necessarily an appropriate barometer for the overall health of the title.

We still have a strong seller's market right now--probably the strongest I've seen since 2001, so nothing is ice cold--but if you look at MMC prices from 2001 to 2018, I don't think you'll see much growth relative to inflation. The Schomburg war covers could be exceptions; no. 46 is certainly an exception.

I like the run, but there are plenty of other books on my want list that I think will continue to increase in price, so it makes sense to go after those first, especially Bats, Tecs, and Caps. That's not to say I wouldn't go after a Marvel Mystery if I saw the right copy of one of my favorite issues. but I couldn't justify being aggressive.

 

[Timely]

6 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

You have nearly a complete run, including some highest graded copies, true? I'd venture to guess that whatever copies you're bidding on are at the top of the census or close to it. Those aren't necessarily an appropriate barometer for the overall health of the title.

We still have a strong seller's market right now--probably the strongest I've seen since 2001, so nothing is ice cold--but if you look at MMC prices from 2001 to 2018, I don't think you'll see much growth relative to inflation. The Schomburg war covers could be exceptions; no. 46 is certainly an exception.

I like the run, but there are plenty of other books on my want list that I think will continue to increase in price, so it makes sense to go after those first, especially Bats, Tecs, and Caps. That's not to say I wouldn't go after a Marvel Mystery if I saw the right copy of one of my favorite issues. but I couldn't justify being aggressive.

 

I go after 8.0 and better copies. I've actually been told mid and lower grade copies sell even faster because they are more affordable. 

Sure, if you compare any title to prehero Tecs or other super hot single issues, all else will seem stagnant by comparison, but is that a true and fair barometer? I don't think so.

Edited August 24, 2018 by Timely

[podboy66]

5 hours ago, Timely said:

I go after 8.0 and better copies. I've actually been told mid and lower grade copies sell even faster because they are more affordable. 

Sure, if you compare any title to prehero Tecs or other super hot single issues, all else will seem stagnant by comparison, but is that a true and fair barometer? I don't think so.

I agree.  I have been selling a lot of mid grade MM duplicates over the last couple of years.  Getting 300 to 400% of what I paid in the early 2000’s.

[jmg3637]

I want to thank valuantman for pointing out how one of the biggest books I ever purchased NYWF 1939 CGC 5.5 has been a major dog since I bought it and a few other unique GA books back in 2004.

that was my last big comic investment prior to adopting my Trade only policy

[valiantman]

On 8/25/2018 at 6:47 PM, jmg3637 said:

I want to thank valuantman for pointing out how one of the biggest books I ever purchased NYWF 1939 CGC 5.5 has been a major dog since I bought it and a few other unique GA books back in 2004.

that was my last big comic investment prior to adopting my Trade only policy

You think you've got it bad?  I'm the one who owns that copy with the 8 cents scribbled on the front. 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

On 8/25/2018 at 4:47 PM, jmg3637 said:

I want to thank valuantman for pointing out how one of the biggest books I ever purchased NYWF 1939 CGC 5.5 has been a major dog since I bought it and a few other unique GA books back in 2004.

that was my last big comic investment prior to adopting my Trade only policy

You think you've got it bad?  I'm the one who owns that copy with the 8 cents scribbled on the front. 

Well, not quite that bad since I am still willing to step up to the plate and pay you your full asking price for the book, even though you scribbled it on the front cover.    

[jmg3637]

The other big ticket Slabbed items I got around that time were 

Big All American Book of COmics 6.5

Comic Cavalcade #1  6.0 

New Book of COmics 2 5.5

Special Edition 1  6.5  

and Uncle Sam Quarterly 1 7.5

not sure if any of them has moved much in the 14 years I have owned them

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

If only we had a crystal ball . . .

[lou_fine]

12 minutes ago, jmg3637 said:

New Book of COmics 2 5.5

Yes, definitely not much movement at all in these early and rare HTF pre-hero DC books.  

A classic and perfect example of books that very seldom ever comes to market and hence, not enough market activity for them to ever go up much in price.  

[sfcityduck]

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

You think you've got it bad?  I'm the one who owns that copy with the 8 cents scribbled on the front. 

I'm really interested in the story on that book.  I've read that some people believe that Edgar Church went out to look for back issues to fill "gaps" in his collection.  I saw someone point to your book to support that assertion. 

Yet, it seems more likely that the NYWF 15 cent copies (marked down from the 25 cent price charged at the fair) might not have been subject to a return because they were cardboard copy non-monthly publications (really more like a coloring book).  Makes me wonder if Edgar just got a copy marked down by a store in Denver, not a copy that he specifically "sought out" for his collection (how would he have even known it existed and where did he get it?).  

Are there any other books (other than maybe the similarly mid-grade NYWF 1940) that folks point out to support the "Edgar bought back issues" argument?

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

I'm really interested in the story on that book.  I've read that some people believe that Edgar Church went out to look for back issues to fill "gaps" in his collection.  I saw someone point to your book to support that assertion. 

Yet, it seems more likely that the NYWF 15 cent copies (marked down from the 25 cent price charged at the fair) might not have been subject to a return because they were cardboard copy non-monthly publications (really more like a coloring book).  Makes me wonder if Edgar just got a copy marked down by a store in Denver, not a copy that he specifically "sought out" for his collection (how would he have even known it existed and where did he get it?).  

Are there any other books (other than maybe the similarly mid-grade NYWF 1940) that folks point out to support the "Edgar bought back issues" argument?

Take a look at the double slash marking on the top left corner of the front cover which seems to be the tell-tale signature marking for an Edgar Church book brought as a used back issue copy.  

Edited August 29, 2018 by lou_fine

[sfcityduck]

15 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Take a look at the double slash marking on the top left corner of the front cover which seems to be the tell-tale signature marking for an Edgar Church book brought as a used back issue copy.  

What other books have that marking? 

Is the theory he did that, or was it the source from whom he bought the "back issue"  comics?  

Are books with that marking from the same time period, or do they include books from later periods?  

And were they on Chuck's earliest sell lists, or were they offered for sale by Chuck later?  

Just curious.  

[october]

1 hour ago, sfcityduck said:

What other books have that marking? 

Is the theory he did that, or was it the source from whom he bought the "back issue"  comics?  

Are books with that marking from the same time period, or do they include books from later periods?  

And were they on Chuck's earliest sell lists, or were they offered for sale by Chuck later?  

Just curious.  

The half dozen I have seen were all from 1938/39, and were mostly Centaurs.