Too rare to rise? 2 2

[valiantman]

There seems to be some kind of market minimum quantity necessary for comic books (of all ages) to experience significant price increases, and the rarest books don't seem to meet that minimum.  It seems there are a number of early 1940s books which sell for significantly more money than mid-to-late 1930s books, even though there's nothing particularly special about those 1940s books and the number of copies is actually higher.  The only difference seems to be that the 1940s books are sold more often, creating a market-in-motion, while the mid-to-late 1930s books may go years without sales, resulting in a stagnant market.

Too rare to rise? 

 

[telerites]

It still comes down to supply and demand, no?  Being rare doesn't necessarily make something in demand,  

Are there specific titles which surprise more?

BTW, Greg, I have said before, your work and website are very much appreciated.

 

[valiantman]

24 minutes ago, telerites said:

It still comes down to supply and demand, no?  Being rare doesn't necessarily make something in demand,  

Are there specific titles which surprise more?

BTW, Greg, I have said before, your work and website are very much appreciated.

I figured I would need to come up with some examples. 

Uh... ok. 

Between 2006 and 2018, the price for a CGC 6.0 New York World's Fair 1939 (April/May 1939) moved from $3,900 to $6,000, a +54% change.  In 2006, a CGC 6.0 Superman #6 (late-1940) sold for $700, and the most recent sale was $2,800, a +300% change.

Why would one book have a six-fold change compared to the another?  Different characters?  Not in this case.  Different supplies?  Maybe... if there were too many copies of the +54% book, and not enough of the +300% book?  Makes sense, but it's the opposite.

There were 28 universal copies of NYWF 1939 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 56 copies now... twice as many.  There were 30 universal copies of Superman #6 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 126 copies now... more than four times as many.

What's going on?  The one with more supply had such a different rise in prices, when you might expect the extra supply to dilute the prices.

There were 10 sales of CGC 6.0 Superman #6 between 2006 and 2018.  There was one sale of CGC 6.0 NYWF 1939 between 2006 and 2018.    

One had an "active" market of one sale per year, and the other only had one additional sale in a decade.

Was NYWF 1939 too rare to rise?

Edited August 22, 2018 by valiantman

[telerites]

17 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I figured I would need to come up with some examples. 

 

Well you are an analyst 

I like NYWF 1939 - it a cool book but I would take an early Supes book and with all the movie hype over the years, toys, action figures, etc. a single title character, especially a Supes or a Bats woud garner much more widespread demand than NYWF and with more demand, more copies come to market to capitalize on the demand.  

[bluechip]

I have noted this myself in the past.   Books that are not only equivalent to more common books but actually more significant in one way or another will sometimes not rise as much.  It's partially that they don't change hands often enough but also that there aren't as many people out there with duplicate copies actively supporting the value of the books.   If you have a handful of Radioactive Man #1 and you value them at 10x, you may actually be more likely to bid if you see one going for 4x or 5X than somebody who doesn't have one to begin with, in order to support the price/hedge your bets, etc.  It happens all the time; I see a book going for much less than I know people have paid for it in the past and much less than I think it should be worth, and for some reason it goes way low (sometimes because are actively hating on the book at that particular point in time);  then, later, examples like it (and even the very same book) goes for multiples of that sale.

[sfcityduck]

 

56 minutes ago, valiantman said:

 

Was NYWF 1939 too rare to rise?

I'd posit the following demand based explanations for the discrepancy:

* NYWF has a lousy cover.  It does not feature a superhero, and they mis-colored Superman's cameo head shot.  In contrast, Superman 6 is a cool early Superman cover. In the GCG world, this may be the only explanation you need.

* Superman is part of one the most actively collected runs of GA comics by DC collectors.  NYWF is an oddity.

* Superman 6 trades for less money.  In 2018, it is still less expensive than NYWF was in 2006.  Less cost means bigger buyer pool.  The dollar increase in value of Superman 6 is less than the dollar value increase in value of NYWF.  That alone can explain why it has increased more in value percentage-wise than NYWF. 

Finally, to your bigger point.  There are examples of rare books which have tremendously appreciated in dolar value with little (or even no) intervening sales.  It all goes back to demand.  The WW ashcan might be an interesting test case for your theory.

Edited August 22, 2018 by sfcityduck

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

Is MMC 9 too rare to rise? The guide value has stagnated. In 2012, a 6.0 guided for $12.5k. Today, it guides for only $15k. And this is a classic cover with the first superhero fight. There are only 5 books higher than a 6.0, so it’s not like people are waiting for a better copy.  The last reported sale for an unrestored copy was in 2012, and it went for Guide value.  No multiple.  It’s hard for me to believe that it would still go for Guide value today, but who knows . . .

Edited August 23, 2018 by GreatCaesarsGhost
More stuff

[batman_fan]

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

There seems to be some kind of market minimum quantity necessary for comic books (of all ages) to experience significant price increases, and the rarest books don't seem to meet that minimum.  It seems there are a number of early 1940s books which sell for significantly more money than mid-to-late 1930s books, even though there's nothing particularly special about those 1940s books and the number of copies is actually higher.  The only difference seems to be that the 1940s books are sold more often, creating a market-in-motion, while the mid-to-late 1930s books may go years without sales, resulting in a stagnant market.

Too rare to rise? 

 

I think it all comes down to content. A rare book with content no one cares about is just an interesting oddity and not very valuable . A rare book with content people are interested in is worth a lot. Note that the content could just be a classic cover. 

[1950's war comics]

quote from a famous numismatist...

 

A very significant piece which would probably be more popular and costly if it weren’t so rare!”
-- Q. David Bowers describing a rare colonial in Bowers and Merena’s Rare Coin Review #140.
 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yes.

When an item is not available, at any price, collectors lose interest. Even if something is available for a "stupid" price, there's more value in other items that are priced reasonably, so people generally move on.

"Out of sight, out of mind."

People won't pursue collections of, say, "Amazing Man", because when are you going to have an opportunity to buy a copy of #26?

The most valuable coins in the world...1913 Liberty Nickel, 1804 Dollar, 1794 Dollar...all have 5, or 15, or even 100 or more examples known. The ones that are known only by one or two or three examples...1873-CC No Arrows dime, 1822 $5, 1825/4 $5....all generally cheaper than their more common, and more famous, counterparts, in the very, very rare times they come up for sale.

"Done in by its own scarcity."

 

Edited August 23, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[adamstrange]

4 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

And this is a classic cover with the first superhero fight.

The fight starts in issue 8 but is not depicted on the cover.  While there are many fans of this cover I don't think the support for is as broad as a number of Schomburg's other Timely covers.

[entalmighty1]

9 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Yes.

When an item is not available, at any price, collectors lose interest. Even if something is available for a "stupid" price, there's more value in other items that are priced reasonably, so people generally move on.

"Out of sight, out of mind."

People won't pursue collections of, say, "Amazing Man", because when are you going to have an opportunity to buy a copy of #26?

The most valuable coins in the world...1913 Liberty Nickel, 1804 Dollar, 1794 Dollar...all have 5, or 15, or even 100 or more examples known. The ones that are known only by one or two or three examples...1873-CC No Arrows dime, 1822 $5, 1825/4 $5....all generally cheaper than their more common, and more famous, counterparts, in the very, very rare times they come up for sale.

"Done in by its own scarcity."

 

Makes perfect sense to me, especially since nowadays you have a ton of collectors feeding on instant gratification.

I know plenty of people that decided to go after a specific run, then realized how few copies of a particular issue trade hands, and abandon the run entirely.  Hell, I've done it myself. 

I suspect that's why we've seen a meteoric rise in prices for so many books now.  Maybe the CGC era is starting to show us that there aren't a ton of truly hard to find books, as long as the money is right.  I see a bunch of people quoting the census now in sales threads, but I suspect most of it is marketing instead of a real belief that something is scarce.  Maybe the census numbers are low because a few years ago, nobody cared about some of these books that are suddenly skyrocketing in price.  Time will tell!  

[october]

A certain amount of market churn is needed to establish a baseline price, especially for more expensive issues. Prices generally climb rung by rung, not by leaps and bounds. It's hard for a book to reach milestone like $100,000 without a lot of sales at ever increasing smaller increments. 

When asked about the million-dollar Gretzky Wagner sale and whether or not he regretted selling it, a former owner said no. The card had to go to $400,000 before it went to a million. And it had to go to a million before it went to 4 million. 

People want to feel comfortable when buying expensive things, and a good portion of that comfort comes from knowing that other people paid a roughly equivalent amount for the item in the past, or that the price increase follows a pattern. Neither of those things exist if the thing is too rare to be traded.

[october]

11 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

People won't pursue collections of, say, "Amazing Man", because when are you going to have an opportunity to buy a copy of #26?

Interesting example. Putting together a set of Centaurs, or even a run of Centaurs, is a daunting (if not near-impossible) task for any collector without a large bankroll and good connections within the hobby. A-Man 26 does well at auction because it has a well-known reputation for scarcity and high prices have driven out a handful of lower grade copies over the past few years, but there are other Centaurs that are tougher that languish....even "cool" issues. I am halfway done with my AMF 1-10 run in 7.0+ and after watching these books for years I still think they are undervalued. My copies are probably worth about what I paid for them, because there are no interim sales to support price increases or generate collector interest. Much more common (and significantly less cool) books in my collection have skyrocketed while these remain underappreciated because of their scarcity. Awareness comes before desire, and there are a ton of people still unaware because they just don't show up. 

[jimbo_7071]

13 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Is MMC 9 too rare to rise? The guide value has stagnated. In 2012, a 6.0 guided for $12.5k. Today, it guides for only $15k. And this is a classic cover with the first superhero fight. There are only 5 books higher than a 6.0, so it’s not like people are waiting for a better copy.  The last reported sale for an unrestored copy was in 2012, and it went for Guide value.  No multiple.  It’s hard for me to believe that it would still go for Guide value today, but who knows . . .

That whole run has been stagnant for a long time. I like MMC but don't own any; I've avoided buying them because they seem to be on their way down. I've purchased some scarcer books that probably aren't going anywhere, but that's only been because buying opportunities are limited. The MMC issues, including number 9, are all relatively easy to find if you have the money. I'd buy one if I could get a bargain; otherwise, what's the rush? Most new collectors care more about the movie and T.V. tie-ins than anything else, and Subby and the GA Torch just don't have much pop-cultural capital.

[rjpb]

16 hours ago, valiantman said:

I figured I would need to come up with some examples. 

Uh... ok. 

Between 2006 and 2018, the price for a CGC 6.0 New York World's Fair 1939 (April/May 1939) moved from $3,900 to $6,000, a +54% change.  In 2006, a CGC 6.0 Superman #6 (late-1940) sold for $700, and the most recent sale was $2,800, a +300% change.

Why would one book have a six-fold change compared to the another?  Different characters?  Not in this case.  Different supplies?  Maybe... if there were too many copies of the +54% book, and not enough of the +300% book?  Makes sense, but it's the opposite.

There were 28 universal copies of NYWF 1939 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 56 copies now... twice as many.  There were 30 universal copies of Superman #6 on the CGC Census in 2006, and there are 126 copies now... more than four times as many.

What's going on?  The one with more supply had such a different rise in prices, when you might expect the extra supply to dilute the prices.

There were 10 sales of CGC 6.0 Superman #6 between 2006 and 2018.  There was one sale of CGC 6.0 NYWF 1939 between 2006 and 2018.    

One had an "active" market of one sale per year, and the other only had one additional sale in a decade.

Was NYWF 1939 too rare to rise?

Nothing with 56 copies on the census is rare. NYWF is a cool early DC, but it's a precursor to World's Finest, which except for #3 and some actually scarce later issues, probably has seen similar rises in value.  One GPA recorded sale in a given grade in ten years doesn't mean much, plenty of books fall into that category, but Heritage alone sells two or three copies a year in various grades, and GPA probably accounts for only a fraction of CGC copies that have traded hands over the last decade. 

There are books that will go years without a sale recorded by GPA in any grade, and the pent up demand can result in a 10 fold increase in realized price between data points, so I don't think a lack of previous sales inhibits a rise in value. 

Early issues of Superman and Batman, not to mention Action and Batman Detectives, are a lot more interesting to collectors, especially those who probably won't ever get close to finishing a run and just want some nice GA examples of the characters.  I don't follow the DC market that closely, but it seems that a lot of third tier "keys", those of limited interest outside of to hardcore DC collectors, haven't seen much growth in value in the last decade or so.

 

[rjpb]

25 minutes ago, jimbo_7071 said:

That whole run has been stagnant for a long time. I like MMC but don't own any; I've avoided buying them because they seem to be on their way down. I've purchased some scarcer books that probably aren't going anywhere, but that's only been because buying opportunities are limited. The MMC issues, including number 9, are all relatively easy to find if you have the money. I'd buy one if I could get a bargain; otherwise, what's the rush? Most new collectors care more about the movie and T.V. tie-ins than anything else, and Subby and the GA Torch just don't have much pop-cultural capital.Slabbed 4.0 

Schomburg MM war covers seem to be on the rise, particularly the ones that hadn't already achieved "classic" status. Slabbed 4.0s of the more random war issues from '43-'45 are approaching and sometimes surpassing $1000 in the market, issues that had sold for 600-800 just a couple years ago in that grade, and 400-500 a decade ago.  

[rjpb]

13 hours ago, batman_fan said:

I think it all comes down to content. A rare book with content no one cares about is just an interesting oddity and not very valuable . A rare book with content people are interested in is worth a lot. Note that the content could just be a classic cover. 

All the more so when that's the only content you can see in a slab.

[batman_fan]

48 minutes ago, rjpb said:

All the more so when that's the only content you can see in a slab.

Very true, maybe we should introduce the concept of “classic back cover”. Could create a whole new driver to get people to pay exorbitant prices for books. 

[atomised]

53 minutes ago, rjpb said:

Schomburg MM war covers seem to be on the rise, particularly the ones that hadn't already achieved "classic" status. Slabbed 4.0s of the more random war issues from '43-'45 are approaching and sometimes surpassing $1000 in the market, issues that had sold for 600-800 just a couple years ago in that grade, and 400-500 a decade ago.  

Agree.  The run is anything but stagnant but I like the impression that it is as an active buyer of those books.