How have label chasers affected the hobby

[sfilosa]

For most life is not a classroom and it's not here in front of your computer get out and live it and I dont see why you need to call people down or belittle them just because their opinions differ from your own WTF are you 4 yrs old

 

Thank you for making that point.

 

I'm all for a lively debate, but those who believe they know all the answers, you shouldn't be wasting your time on theses boards. Go out and use that knowledge to MAKE MONEY, not try to prevent SOMEONE ELSE from LOSING IT.

 

JC has been predicting a CRASH for THREE YEARS and he's been wrong so far. He might be correct one day, but his INCORRECTNESS proves that HE DOESN'T know all the ANSWERS.

 

And for all those who believe PRESSING will be the DOWNFALL of the HOBBY, please get some real world experience by getting a few of your books pressed. See how easy or hard it is and if the books actually receive higher grades. Of the 250 slabs I have, I think that only two or three could be Pressing Candidates. And even then, I'm not sure that they wouldn't get a higher grade without pressing.

[drbanner]

Frankly, if I'm looking for a nice copy of a book and one comes up for sale, I could care less what the label says or what the book used to look like - if it looks nice now and the price is right, I'm interested. If pressing makes more copies available that fit the looks nice/right price criteria, then great. And no, I wouldn't have rather paid less for it before when it had that 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease because I'm not looking for a copy with a 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease, I'm looking for a gem!

 

Pressing will not bring about the downfall of the hobby despite what the fatalists like to insinuate, I mean, that's just plain KRAZY...

 

(Am I really arguing about pressing here, again, reading yet another thread about pressing, time to go back into hibernation mode... )

[topofthetotem]

 

And for all those who believe PRESSING will be the DOWNFALL of the HOBBY, please get some real world experience by getting a few of your books pressed. See how easy or hard it is and if the books actually receive higher grades. Of the 250 slabs I have, I think that only two or three could be Pressing Candidates. And even then, I'm not sure that they wouldn't get a higher grade without pressing.

 

This is true pressing can only "fix" certain problems it cannot repair fiber damage to the paper it cannot undo color breaking creases color rubs or spine stresses very standard wear on 98 percent of comics sitting in collectors boxes or dealers stacks before CGC type holders came around

[topofthetotem]

this wasnt ment to be a pressing thread but a few forum members harp on the issue

[Psylocke Smythe-migration]

But as I have pointed out, even with ALL the HYPE surrounding the FF movie, only THREE new 9.4's were certified in the past year between issue #1-20. Even you have to admit that is NOT a very big amount and that those three issues, I'm sure, could be absorbed into the market place without effecting demand downward.

 

My question on all this is, unless I was planning to sell the book in the next 6 months, why would I go ahead and send it into CGC for them to grade the Comic? The only reason I could see to send the comic to them, if I was not planning to sell it soon, would be for bragging rights (hoping for something 9.4 or higher) or to confirm the grade that I thought the book was in.

 

So it is possible that the low numbers so far are only due to people still wanting to hold onto their books and not get them graded so they can be sold.

 

But then again I could also be looking at this all wrong also.

 

Psy

[THE_BEYONDER]

For most life is not a classroom and it's not here in front of your computer get out and live it and I dont see why you need to call people down or belittle them just because their opinions differ from your own WTF are you 4 yrs old

 

Thank you for making that point.

 

I'm all for a lively debate, but those who believe they know all the answers, you shouldn't be wasting your time on theses boards. Go out and use that knowledge to MAKE MONEY, not try to prevent SOMEONE ELSE from LOSING IT.

 

JC has been predicting a CRASH for THREE YEARS and he's been wrong so far. He might be correct one day, but his INCORRECTNESS proves that HE DOESN'T know all the ANSWERS.

 

And for all those who believe PRESSING will be the DOWNFALL of the HOBBY, please get some real world experience by getting a few of your books pressed. See how easy or hard it is and if the books actually receive higher grades. Of the 250 slabs I have, I think that only two or three could be Pressing Candidates. And even then, I'm not sure that they wouldn't get a higher grade without pressing.

 

I'm sorry...but you really have absolutely no clue. I'd qualify this statement, but I refuse to bang my head against the wall any longer.

[THE_BEYONDER]

Frankly, if I'm looking for a nice copy of a book and one comes up for sale, I could care less what the label says or what the book used to look like - if it looks nice now and the price is right, I'm interested. If pressing makes more copies available that fit the looks nice/right price criteria, then great. And no, I wouldn't have rather paid less for it before when it had that 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease because I'm not looking for a copy with a 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease, I'm looking for a gem!

 

Pressing will not bring about the downfall of the hobby despite what the fatalists like to insinuate, I mean, that's just plain KRAZY...

 

(Am I really arguing about pressing here, again, reading yet another thread about pressing, time to go back into hibernation mode... )

 

Were I to have the spinner-rack creases pressed out of this 8.5 you sold me....you would have no problem with me selling it as a CGC 9.4 without disclosure?

[tth2]

My question on all this is, unless I was planning to sell the book in the next 6 months, why would I go ahead and send it into CGC for them to grade the Comic? The only reason I could see to send the comic to them, if I was not planning to sell it soon, would be for bragging rights (hoping for something 9.4 or higher) or to confirm the grade that I thought the book was in.

Sure, there's that, and also for the restoration check. And, because I can't tell the future and therefore have no idea when I might drop dead or get hit by a car, and because my wife has no clue about comics, I prefer to have my more valuable books in slabs so that when my estate sells my books, my family won't get ripped off by a bunch of unscrupulous dealers trying to claim they're a bunch of VGs.

 

So it is possible that the low numbers so far are only due to people still wanting to hold onto their books and not get them graded so they can be sold.

This could certainly be part of it. But there ARE some books that are low in the census because they're genuinely hard to find.

[drbanner]

Frankly, if I'm looking for a nice copy of a book and one comes up for sale, I could care less what the label says or what the book used to look like - if it looks nice now and the price is right, I'm interested. If pressing makes more copies available that fit the looks nice/right price criteria, then great. And no, I wouldn't have rather paid less for it before when it had that 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease because I'm not looking for a copy with a 1/2" non-color breaking corner crease, I'm looking for a gem!

 

Pressing will not bring about the downfall of the hobby despite what the fatalists like to insinuate, I mean, that's just plain KRAZY...

 

(Am I really arguing about pressing here, again, reading yet another thread about pressing, time to go back into hibernation mode... )

 

Were I to have the spinner-rack creases pressed out of this 8.5 you sold me....you would have no problem with me selling it as a CGC 9.4 without disclosure?

 

If you want to put words in my mouth, the more appropriate rhetorical question, based on my position as delineated above, would be:

 

"Were I to have the spinner-rack creases pressed out of this 8.5 you sold me....you would have no problem buying it as a CGC 9.4?"

 

And the answer would be yes...just as yours should be if somebody asked you if the book had been pressed. I don't buy too many slabbed books, but as I look at my want list and consider the books I would buy slabbed, I have no reservations about buying one with the knowledge that it might have been pressed.

[joe_collector]

unlike most I do own a business or two one is a service business the other is a goods business where others come in and buy items for comsumpution I understand supply and demand better then you JC.

 

Once again, here's Mr Economic's latest theory:

 

"The only reason you could not sell an item is because a collector could not afford it not because they did not want it and that is real world economics not this supply and demand BS but thrive to survive real world living that prevents people from buying the collectable of their choice."

 

Now I don't know about you, but I could think of a ton of REAL-WORLD reasons why I would not just "buy every book I want" other than not having enough money.

 

Like I said, a real Think Tank going on in here.

[joe_collector]

it cannot undo color breaking creases color rubs or spine stresses very standard wear on 98 percent of comics sitting in collectors boxes or dealers stacks

 

So, Mr Economics has moved onto Statistics, has he?

 

Where exactly did you get this 98% figure, and how long did it take you to collate and inspect all of the comics in the world? Decades, I'd imagine.

[joe_collector]

JC has been predicting a CRASH for THREE YEARS and he's been wrong so far. He might be correct one day, but his INCORRECTNESS proves that HE DOESN'T know all the ANSWERS

 

Here's a little tale to illustrate how I operate:

 

When the NASDAQ was riding high, I and many of my cohorts were investing and making tons of cash. It was easy money, crazy money, but after awhile I started seeing where it would all end up. Prices had gone up too high, hype was out of control, speculators were rampant, and a "real world valuation" correction was due.

 

So I started selling, looking to get out with a nice profit, and recommended that others do the same. Let's just say this was not very well-received, and virtually everyone else thought the party would never end. Some even got angry I would even think such a thing, and I even lost a few friends (temporarily) over it.

 

So I got out with a humungous profit, but prices didn't drop the next day, or even the next week, or even the next month, and I don't even believe within a year. In fact, many continued to go up... then BANG the party was over and some of my friends lost a gob of "stock money", and let's just say I bought drinks for a few weeks after that.

 

Just like with the NASDAQ scenario, I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I do know that a CGC price correction is over the horizon, therefore I'm not foolish enough to ever think of buying in at this point.

 

Will it happen eventually? Yes. Will it happen tomorrow? Next month? Next year? Who knows, I just collect, and leave the "slabbed investment portfolios" to you *experts*.

[sfilosa]

No one is saying that a crash can't happen.

 

As a matter of fact your little story illustrates a very good point.

 

That YOU DID own SPECULATOR STOCKS, but were WISE enough to sell. Maybe you sold at the perfect time, maybe you sold a touch early or even a touch late, but it worked out well for you.

 

ONCE AGAIN,........

 

YOU DID SPECULATE!!!!!!

 

 

That said, if you had sold ALL your STOCKS THREE YEARS before the CRASH, you would have made a LOT LESS MONEY. I MEAN A LOT LESS, since the real BOOM only happened for about a year and a half.

[delekkerste]

Every bubble market in recorded history has ended badly, and I have no doubt that the slabbed comic market will not be the first exception to this rule. The ultimate post-bubble bottom always takes prices not only back to "trend" levels or even where the bubble started, but below these levels. I know that it is inconceivable to most that prices could get back to even 2003 levels, let alone 2001, 1999 or 1997 levels, but I would not be so quick to dismiss the possibility out of hand.

 

Now, I know what you're all thinking - "b-b-but I and everyone else I know would be buying if prices fell a fraction of that amount!" Well, sure you would, if TGC happened overnight for no reason. But what if it were a decade-long, drawn-out affair where dip-buyers repeatedly got punished and sales volumes slowed to a trickle while trapped speculators and aging Baby Boomers kept using every bounce to unload and the mood after a year or two kept getting progressively more pessimistic? And what if the housing bubble burst, monetary conditions tightened dramatically, the economy tanked and everyone, even the BSDs, suddenly didn't feel like spending so freely (which is what I think will be the ultimate undoing of the market, not pressing)? You might be surprised how fast the psychology of a market can change and how fast buyers can disappear when they think they can get something cheaper in the future.

 

The Nasdaq bubble is still very vivid in my mind. I remember my mom, who wouldn't know a Cisco router from a newspaper route, was making triple-digit returns in tech stocks and chastising me for being too conservative with my money. As the Nasdaq soared from 2500 to 3500 to 5000, I gave the same warning to her as I made above - every bubble ends below where it started. She and all the Bubbleonians, however, couldn't conceive that we'd ever see Nasdaq 3,000 again, let alone Nasdaq 1,108 (where it collapsed to by October 2002). And, sure enough, not only did ALL of that triple-digit gain disappear, but so did SIXTY PERCENT of her original capital (funny how she and all the other would-be market geniuses who thought they could time the turn in the market ended up frozen like a deer in headlights, unwilling to take the pain of admitting their mistake and selling out at a smaller loss). The same will happen in slabbed comics at some point - the long-term income, demographic and hobby fundamentals just do not support prices where they are in the long-term.

 

Many have been paying stupid prices the past couple of years, so it's not like we need to roll back prices to 2001 levels for there to be substantial losses. For every book that's been sold at a stupid price the past couple of years, there has been a buyer paying that stupid price. As such, even a 10 to 20% correction will change the psychology of a number of collectors/speculators/investors straight away.

 

Anyway, that's going to be my only "crash" post for 2005. Feel free to disagree, but just realize that you are betting against thousands of years of human folly.

[joe_collector]

That YOU DID own SPECULATOR STOCKS, but were WISE enough to sell.

 

Gimme a break, the reason I got out was because of speculator activity and the harm I know these fools bring to any market.

 

The reason I made money was because I DID NOT speculate and was in early as part of my usual investment plan. Basically I got lucky.

[sfilosa]

Quote:

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That YOU DID own SPECULATOR STOCKS, but were WISE enough to sell.

 

 

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Gimme a break, the reason I got out was because of speculator activity and the harm I know these fools bring to any market.

 

The reason I made money was because I DID NOT speculate and was in early as part of my usual investment plan. Basically I got lucky.

 

Even when I try to give you some credit (i.e. being WISE) you still can't agree with me (as in you saying you got LUCKY).

 

A great quote is, "Luck is the residual of design".

 

Bascially it means that if you PUT yourself in the right position (place), things that appear to be LUCK aren't really only LUCK.

[Silver Surfer]

Can we talk about pressing again its way more interesting than a crash theory. I'm mean really what's the point you have been calling for one forever and your not going to quit until your right. You have been wrong for years, actually way of the mark, yet you still have this staunch tone of defiance. I surprised that some of the members have engaged in this conversation for so long.

[skybolt]

Just like everything else in life, you have to think before you put a lot of money into comic book collecting. You should never ever over-reach your expenses and go into debt.

 

The difference between the comic book and stock markets is that 100% of the people entering the stock market are thinking of making money, while a much smaller percentage of comic book collectors think along the same lines. Would I be upset if my collection depreciated by 20% when a crash occurs, of course. However, since I love having the books I own, I'd still be happy with them until a much later date if I decide to sell.

 

This being said, you have to be smart when collecting/investing in comic books. Is it smart to spend $2,700 on a 9.9 copy of ASM #238 when you can buy a perfectly nice 9.4 copy for less than $100........the answer is NO. Is it smart to pay $25,000 for a 9.9 copy of ASM #19, when you can purchase a perfectly nice 9.0 graded ASM #1 for the same amount...........again, I have to say no. It's almost like saying that I'd rather have a brand new Saturn instead of a 2 year old Lamborgini. I think that more and more people will come to realize that the difference between uber-HG books and ones with very minor defects (especially for BA and MA) is not that big. For instance, I purchased a perfectly nice 8.5 copy of Hulk #181 for $715 a year ago. Now, even if you bring the best darn looking Hulk #181 that graded at 9.9, I still wouldn't pay more than $2K for it.

 

Now if a crash occurs and the 9.9 and 9.8 books start selling at only 1.5 or 2 times guide value, I still don't think the VF and VF/NM copies would drop to the bottom because everyone would want to upgrade. It's very possible that in 10 years time a lot of people would not be willing to even pay 30% more for a copy that has one less stress mark on it than their original copy. This will definitely be the case for post 1965/1966 books.

 

Now if there was some major disaster like a nuclear war or some other catastrophy then even our money in the bank or under our bedroom matress won't be safe.

[october]

Can we talk about pressing again its way more interesting than a crash theory. I'm mean really what's the point you have been calling for one forever and your not going to quit until your right. You have been wrong for years, actually way of the mark, yet you still have this staunch tone of defiance. I surprised that some of the members have engaged in this conversation for so long.

 

I know JC's delivery can rankle, but do you honestly believe that their isn't going to be a crash, or severe price adjustment, on slabbed books sometime in the future? You don't think the crazy guide multiples paid for infintisimal (and often non-existant) differences between 9.4/9.6/9.8 are going to be checked sometime? I don't think the comic market will completely bottom-out, but I think many, many certified book will lose most of their value. How can you think otherwise when 9.6s and 9.8s from the 70s are going for $200 and their VF counterparts are literally stuck in the quarter bin. Does that make any intuitive sense?

 

[sfilosa]

don't think the comic market will completely bottom-out, but I think many, many certified book will lose most of their value. How can you think otherwise when 9.6s and 9.8s from the 70s are going for $200 and their VF counterparts are literally stuck in the quarter bin. Does that make any intuitive sense?

 

Logically you are correct. But logic doesn't dictate why people spend thousands of dollars on comic books in the first place.

 

Plus, CGC has done what has happened in other collectible fields. It has ALLOWED (Made?) Collectors COMPETE with their collections.

 

Don't think that compettion will go away as it hasn't in other fields.