How have label chasers affected the hobby

[Silver Surfer]

Can we talk about pressing again its way more interesting than a crash theory. I'm mean really what's the point you have been calling for one forever and your not going to quit until your right. You have been wrong for years, actually way of the mark, yet you still have this staunch tone of defiance. I surprised that some of the members have engaged in this conversation for so long.

 

I know JC's delivery can rankle, but do you honestly believe that their isn't going to be a crash, or severe price adjustment, on slabbed books sometime in the future? You don't think the crazy guide multiples paid for infintisimal (and often non-existant) differences between 9.4/9.6/9.8 are going to be checked sometime? I don't think the comic market will completely bottom-out, but I think many, many certified book will lose most of their value. How can you think otherwise when 9.6s and 9.8s from the 70s are going for $200 and their VF counterparts are literally stuck in the quarter bin. Does that make any intuitive sense?

 

Perhaps but why beat a dead horse for 3 years, waiting for the bottom to fall out just so one can say "I told you so". We are all adults here and I don't know too many people on thee boards who are saying that they are buying slabbs so they can supplement their retirement (maybe Burnt Boy and he made out like a bandit ). Buy what you love and enjoy them.

[october]

Can we talk about pressing again its way more interesting than a crash theory. I'm mean really what's the point you have been calling for one forever and your not going to quit until your right. You have been wrong for years, actually way of the mark, yet you still have this staunch tone of defiance. I surprised that some of the members have engaged in this conversation for so long.

 

I know JC's delivery can rankle, but do you honestly believe that their isn't going to be a crash, or severe price adjustment, on slabbed books sometime in the future? You don't think the crazy guide multiples paid for infintisimal (and often non-existant) differences between 9.4/9.6/9.8 are going to be checked sometime? I don't think the comic market will completely bottom-out, but I think many, many certified book will lose most of their value. How can you think otherwise when 9.6s and 9.8s from the 70s are going for $200 and their VF counterparts are literally stuck in the quarter bin. Does that make any intuitive sense?

 

Perhaps but why beat a dead horse for 3 years, waiting for the bottom to fall out just so one can say "I told you so". We are all adults here and I don't know too many people on thee boards who are saying that they are buying slabbs so they can supplement their retirement (maybe Burnt Boy and he made out like a bandit ). Buy what you love and enjoy them.

 

True, but there are plenty of people on here who have invested thousands or even tens of thousands on slabbed books. Don't you think that people laying out that kind of cash are looking to make back at least what they paid for them? There are a TON of posters here who buy bronze and modern slabs. I doubt this is done for the restoration check or even for the love of the books. Maybe it's label chasing, maybe it's investment. Either way, there are more than a few who have a pretty decent financial stake in the comics they own.

[Silver Surfer]

I bet you the biggest regret people have about sinking thousands of dollars into slabbs is that they can't read them. I fight this all the time so every now and then I have to hit up Mile High Comics for 100 or so new and back issues comics.

[october]

I bet you the biggest regret people have about sinking thousands of dollars into slabbs is that they can't read them. I fight this all the time so every now and then I have to hit up Mile High Comics for 100 or so new and back issues comics.

 

Yeah, I am sure most people have to double up. That must get to be a real pain after awhile.

[topofthetotem]

JC has been predicting a CRASH for THREE YEARS and he's been wrong so far. He might be correct one day, but his INCORRECTNESS proves that HE DOESN'T know all the ANSWERS

 

Here's a little tale to illustrate how I operate:

 

When the NASDAQ was riding high, I and many of my cohorts were investing and making tons of cash. It was easy money, crazy money, but after awhile I started seeing where it would all end up. Prices had gone up too high, hype was out of control, speculators were rampant, and a "real world valuation" correction was due.

 

So I started selling, looking to get out with a nice profit, and recommended that others do the same. Let's just say this was not very well-received, and virtually everyone else thought the party would never end. Some even got angry I would even think such a thing, and I even lost a few friends (temporarily) over it.

 

So I got out with a humungous profit, but prices didn't drop the next day, or even the next week, or even the next month, and I don't even believe within a year. In fact, many continued to go up... then BANG the party was over and some of my friends lost a gob of "stock money", and let's just say I bought drinks for a few weeks after that.

 

Just like with the NASDAQ scenario, I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I do know that a CGC price correction is over the horizon, therefore I'm not foolish enough to ever think of buying in at this point.

 

Will it happen eventually? Yes. Will it happen tomorrow? Next month? Next year? Who knows, I just collect, and leave the "slabbed investment portfolios" to you *experts*.

 

Wow the guys a stock market guru and all he has time for is too sit at the computer and look for post on the boards that he can trash because the views are diffrent from his own CLASSY

[arexcrooke]

I bet you the biggest regret people have about sinking thousands of dollars into slabbs is that they can't read them. I fight this all the time so every now and then I have to hit up Mile High Comics for 100 or so new and back issues comics.

That is what i am going through right now. Granted, i only have about 15, i still want to read them.

[joe_collector]

Wow the guys a stock market guru and all he has time for is too sit at the computer and look for post on the boards that he can trash

 

Shouldn't you get out collecting your Nobel Prize for Economics?

[arexcrooke]

Wow the guys a stock market guru and all he has time for is too sit at the computer and look for post on the boards that he can trash

 

Shouldn't you get out collecting your Nobel Prize for Economics?

[topofthetotem]

Wow the guys a stock market guru and all he has time for is too sit at the computer and look for post on the boards that he can trash

 

Shouldn't you get out collecting your Nobel Prize for Economics?

 

I got till october to collect and it's actually called The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel everyone of the form members are invited except you JC

[AussieRuss]

Can we talk about pressing again its way more interesting than a crash theory. I'm mean really what's the point you have been calling for one forever and your not going to quit until your right. You have been wrong for years, actually way of the mark, yet you still have this staunch tone of defiance. I surprised that some of the members have engaged in this conversation for so long.

 

I know JC's delivery can rankle, but do you honestly believe that their isn't going to be a crash, or severe price adjustment, on slabbed books sometime in the future? You don't think the crazy guide multiples paid for infintisimal (and often non-existant) differences between 9.4/9.6/9.8 are going to be checked sometime? I don't think the comic market will completely bottom-out, but I think many, many certified book will lose most of their value. How can you think otherwise when 9.6s and 9.8s from the 70s are going for $200 and their VF counterparts are literally stuck in the quarter bin. Does that make any intuitive sense?

 

Perhaps but why beat a dead horse for 3 years, waiting for the bottom to fall out just so one can say "I told you so". We are all adults here and I don't know too many people on thee boards who are saying that they are buying slabbs so they can supplement their retirement (maybe Burnt Boy and he made out like a bandit ). Buy what you love and enjoy them.

 

True, but there are plenty of people on here who have invested thousands or even tens of thousands on slabbed books. Don't you think that people laying out that kind of cash are looking to make back at least what they paid for them? There are a TON of posters here who buy bronze and modern slabs. I doubt this is done for the restoration check or even for the love of the books. Maybe it's label chasing, maybe it's investment. Either way, there are more than a few who have a pretty decent financial stake in the comics they own.

 

 

Hey Guys.

 

Well I will go ahead & place myself in the firing line.

 

I am one of those "" that Joe collector kindly labels.

I am also fortunate enough through a little bit of self education and also self intrest to be in a position where I can play the share market, property market and have a few bucks to play the comic invesment game with a return to be realised after I am placed 6 feet below.

 

Yes I am a label chaser. Maybe not from a numbers point of view but from those few little words that indicate "Pedigree" status.

 

Joe, I agree that there will be many corrections in the CGC buyers market. However I think it will hit different catagories @ different times. I actually look foward to purchasing a lot more "Pedigreed books when these corrections happen.

 

After all. Corrections end and prices nearly always head skyward after a correction as the bargain hunters move in. Fortunately Golden, Silver & bronze books are not a day to day working company that will shut its doors after going bankrupt.

 

I am interested in what you call a correction. Do you expect the whole CGC market to fall in a heap or do you think it will happen 1-2 catagories at a time?

 

An example is that during the latest heritage auction a lot of Pacific Caoast Pedigree'd books sold for a lot less than originally offered for on the sellers website. Does this count as a correction in the PC pedigree???

 

Also the O.S price guide has slightly relaxed the price on a few books like Iron Man #1 this year. Does this count as a correction

 

The thing that I am having the greatest trouble with is that you don't seem to give a time frame on this. Sure someone looking for a 6 month windfall may be greatly dissapoited but what about someone like myself who is willing to hopefully wait another 60 years before realising a profit?

 

Joe I'm sure that I can see what you are getting at but to place those of us that invest money in comics for the future in one basket & call us a pack of insufficiently_thoughtful_person's is a bit rough.

 

Russ

[joe_collector]

but what about someone like myself who is willing to hopefully wait another 60 years before realising a profit?

 

You're joking, right?

[Norrin_Radd]

Stock market......... the comic book market.

 

Apples........ oranges.

 

 

If you two guys [Gene & JC] are waiting for a similar crash in the slabbed market like the one that happened in the stock market, you are likely in for a long wait.

 

Yes, certain ridiculous slabs will decline (9.8+ modern), but overall the market is healthy. As always, speculators who don't know what the they are doing will bear the brunt of the losses. But collectors who buy what they (and probably most other collectors) like and don't buy super-HG will do fine. They may lose a little value if (when) the market does cool off, but then they don't really care. These are collectors who want to own these comics for their enjoyment.

 

 

The problem is that neither of you two can admit when you are wrong (like most perennial bears). They refuse to look at any evidence to the contrary and stubbornly hold to their belief that a crash is coming. How much money as Robert Prechtor made for his clients in the last 15 years?

[AussieRuss]

but what about someone like myself who is willing to hopefully wait another 60 years before realising a profit?

 

You're joking, right?

 

Hello Joe.

 

No I am not joking. I will never come on this board and set out to tell a lie. I may joke around from time to time but I will use the (kidding around) icon when I am.

 

You see I may be the odd one out here and I wont put everyone who has heard me tell this story before through the boredom but in short I am putting together a rather nice little pedigree collection of #1 comics together to pass on to my kids (when I have them). I have no plans to ever realise a cent for my pedigree'd comics but I will leave them to my wife and kids at some stage in their lives. They can do what they will with the collection but all being well that will not happen for several decades to come.

 

This is why I scan my books and show them in the "Show your Latest Pedigree" section of this forum. I am more than happy to show my purchases for people to refer to and critique as they are not likely to see the light of day for a long long time.

 

I have already had my money's worth by simply having the chance to admire these books and learn of their past history.

 

Call it eccentric, but I can only dream of the day that these books get handed over to their new owners. I hope to get as much enjoyment as Sid (Burntboy) is currently getting by handing over his collection to the new owners.

 

Thats my prize and let me say if thats comic collecting, what a wonderful hobby it has become for me.

 

Regards,

 

Russ...

[delekkerste]

The problem is that neither of you two can admit when you are wrong (like most perennial bears). They refuse to look at any evidence to the contrary and stubbornly hold to their belief that a crash is coming. How much money as Robert Prechtor made for his clients in the last 15 years?

 

I admit when I'm wrong all the time. I also don't care how much money Robert Prechter has or hasn't made for his clients - I only care how much I've made and how much I'm going to make. More importantly, do you really think the next 15 years will look anything like the last 15 years? 15 years ago, asset prices were low, interest rates were falling, people were saving 9% of their incomes (which were rising) and weren't cashing out their equity like it was going out of style, China and India were still some backwaters that nobody cared about, the Baby Boomers were entering their prime earning years (as opposed to being just a few years from retirement for some now), oil prices were high but on their way to plunging below $20/bbl. and we were only a few years away from embarking upon the period that saw the greatest wealth creation in all of recorded history with the stock market and technology revolution/bubble and one of the longest, strongest economic expansions in history (unfortunately, with all the excesses that came from it which we are still trying to correct).

 

HG comic and original art were, in many cases, literally pennies on today's dollars back in 1990 and there was CGC and online sales to come and inject unprecedented liquidity into the market, on top of all the positive income/wealth trends above. And, the hobby was thriving (on the surface, anyway), as it never had before, with books like X-Men #1 and Spider-Man #1 selling in the multiple 6-figures or more and carrying the rest of the market higher.

 

Today, the hobby has been in a decline since then, but this last generation of hard-core collectors has driven prices to unfathomable levels without much fundamental justification. Comic prices have outstripped income growth by hundreds of percent over the past 15 years. That is not sustainable. If and when the debt/credit/asset bubble implodes, it will decimate asset prices across the Board, the comic market included. You underestimate how fast psychology can change. Even the most die-hard collectors won't be so quick to buy on dips if they get the expectation that prices will keep falling or if the news is blaring headlines of $5/gallon gasoline or how the biggest trend in California is people with negative equity in their homes declaring bankruptcy and walking away with the keys in the door. Even the BSDs won't be so quick to buy if their $3 million homes keep falling in value for years.

 

Every bubble ends with prices below the starting point. Nearly all of the illusory gains from the past few years will be wiped out eventually. It may not be a rapid decline like the stock market in 2000-2002; it could take a decade or more like Japan's ongoing deflation. I'm not expecting any of this to happen overnight, though some of the smart collectors I talk to are seeing some signs of it happening already in Silver and Bronze (haven't we already seen the top-tick in the HG JIM market, for example?). I think it's pretty much undeniable that the peaks have been seen for many books in the in the Copper and Modern markets already.

 

You know, I bet those Japanese thought their property prices would rise forever after a 45 year bull market. After 14 or 15 years of consecutive decline, somehow I think they've been convinced otherwise. The same will happen to comic collectors. Now, before FlyingDonut jumps on my case, I am mostly talking about HG and super HG slabbed books here, from all eras. But, even the lower graded stuff will be affected by the factors that I'm mentioning; those prices will fall too, but nowhere near the amount that the slabs with huge speculative premiums will.

 

I don't care what comic prices have done in the past. I only care where they're going. The fact that prices have reached such looney-bin levels should be a warning sign, not an invitation to jump on the bandwagon. Have I been beating the same drum for a while now? Yes, I have, though, I have rarely ventured a guess on when the ultimate top might be; it is not overly difficult to recognize a bubble, but it is another thing to pinpoint its end. But, when you've studied enough financial history to recognize the inevitable disastrous aftermath, for someone with a long-term perspective, missing the tail end of a mania doesn't matter much. Besides, I certainly don't regret not being "invested" in comics the past couple of years when I've been able to make triple-digit returns in the stock market. And, that was with a lot more capital - it's very hard to "invest" any real size in comics unless you're playing in the really high-end, and we've all seen how JP, Italian-Treasure and others have fared there given that liquidity on those big-ticket books is even more shallow than Paris Hilton's personality.

 

Dang you, Norrin_Radd, you made me write TWO crash posts this year.

[krazykat-migration]

Comics,... Over-Priced...YES

 

Original Art,....no way. If you think Original Marvel Bull Pen Covers will EVER go back to 8k (1998 levels) a piece you are wrong.

[Aman619]

now youve done it kids! with all this loose talk about a crash etc , - - - Gene's is back with a vengeance!!

I hope ypure all proud of yourselves!

 

 

[sfilosa]

Comics,... Over-Priced...YES

 

Original Art,....no way. If you think Original Marvel Bull Pen Covers will EVER go back to 8k (1998 levels) a piece you are wrong.

 

Let's get a few facts out about OA:

 

1) Not everybody likes it. I wouldn't buy / invest in any collectible if I didn't have some appreciation for. Nuff Said.

 

2) Determining the fair market value for OA is much more difficult then comic books (especially CGC certified books).. Because the FMV of OA is harder to determine, it leads to potentially more risk and reward.

 

3) OA has a lot less liquidity. There are two reasons for that. Less potential buyers and less information on FMV.

 

Once again, there is nothing wrong with OA (I occasionally buy a piece here and there). And I would agree that those who have an amazing knowledge of the field, could probably make more money then in comics (since CGC has leveled the playing field). But not everyone has that knowledge, nor do they want to put in the time to gain that knowledge.

[delekkerste]

*** You are ignoring this user ***

 

[krazykat-migration]

Delicatessen,

 

YOU SUCK !!!!

 

KK

[arexcrooke]

Delicatessen,

 

YOU SUCK !!!!

 

KK

You swallow