Is Now the Best Time or the Worst Time to Invest in Comics? 2 2

[Robot Man]

On 1/25/2020 at 12:52 PM, gino2paulus2 said:

I can say this. My generation grew up on Turtles, we had basically one super movie and a few super hero cartoons. The exposure wasn't huge but it was there. In fact my close friend Scott and I were the only kids I knew in my entire school that liked comics. My nostalgia even for just the little we had was enough to have me crawling back in a major way over the past 20 years or so and eventually I got into GA comics. I grew up in a cornstalk town too. Now that I am grown up and moved to a bigger city I see thousands of folks my age showing up to these shows and stuff. People get the collecting bug. Even the new age social media kids will I see little collectors all over the place including my children even if not comics they collect, "stuff" its just in many peoples nature. Lets also look at the population in general. How much has it increased over the past 30 years. Exponentially!! That is just more folks that could possibly get into comics in general. I live on a block with a bunch of parents my age (36-45) who all have 1-4 kids. Every single halloween I see more SUPERHERO stuff than I could EVER have imagined. It is literally insane!! I take my kids to the bus and every other kid has a superhero book bag. They all have superhero toys in abundance!! Not just my kids either. When my kids and my neighbors kids come home from school they bring home Superhero books to read!! This is something I didn't do when I was little nearly as much as they do now. I had a few comics sure but so does my son and so do other kids on the block. I have taken my kids to a comic store multiple times and so have folks on my block. The nostalgia this generation is going to have for super heroes is going to be HUGE even bigger than my generation no doubt and my generation is certainly helping sustain these prices today if not help it go crazy insane. People like to read. Books too not just digital stuff. That includes almost every single child I know. As I type this my oldest 2 are having friends over and they are all literally running around using their imaginations that they are super heroes and villains chasing each other around. The stories of Gods and Supers and looking into the stars are as old as time. I'm telling you right now folks comics are going to be just fine. I know for one I got my kids accounted for and even if the small amount of the comics community that is on these boards makes sure to give their children and grandchildren a small amount of exposure enough children will get the bug one day to come back and start collecting this stuff. I am sure in 30 years when there are 10 Billion people on the earth a few will like comics haha!! sooooooo...

Instead of focusing on whether or not the physical comics are worth investing in make sure you are doing your part to make sure your friends and most importantly your family (children and grandchildren etc) are getting exposure to these fantastic stories and that is the INVESTMENT that will ensure the Comic Market will be safe and sound as the seeds are planted for nostalgia and dreams. 

Hey Gino. Thought you might like this. At Christmas, my daughter, her husband and I pulled out her toys I saved for her. You might recognize some of these. I guess this means I might be old enough to be your dad!  

[William-James88]

While the obvious answer is that if you buy what you love than there will always be a demand for it by you, I do get that it doesn't really answer the question. 

The answer is it depends the title. GA comics are the rarest around so a slight change in demand can have a huge change in prices. If 5 rich collectors want a specific nicely graded pre code horror comic in their collection, then that comic will sky rocket in price. Investment wise, that means you have to look at books that have stayed rather stable in price since that's an indication that interest is not high. The fact that there are so few copies means that almost by definition, non key golden age books are undervalued. I mean that fact that issue 10 of Bulletman (a book with only 10 or so issues in the registry) is cheaper than issue 10 of Fantastic Four (a book with 800 or so issues in the registry), clearly reveals an opportunity in the market. 

So there are definitely still some opportunities now, but is now a better time than before? Yes, for certain items. Here are two examples from recent acquisitions of mine.

Whiz Comics #103 in 7.0 was $105 in the price guide in 2006 . We have a record of it selling at a public online auction for $70.15 raw. So they got it at a 33% discount compared to the guide price. https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/whiz-comics-103-fawcett-1948-condition-fn-vf-pete-costanza-and-c-c-beck-art-overstreet-2004-fn-60-value-72-vf/a/14071-17046.s?ic16=ViewItem-Auction-Archive-PreviousPricesHeritage-081514

In 2019, the price guide shows a value of $133 for this same comic in 7.0. That figure just follows inflation. And if we look at what the original $70.15 spent would be in 2019 dollars, it would be $88. However, I purchased a slabbed copy for $77. And while that is $7 higher than what someone paid for in 2006, that is a 42% discount compared to the guide price. Accounting for inflation, I paid less for the comic now than someone did 13 year ago. Also, my copy is slabbed, while the previous copy sold was not, meaning I have even greater savings if you consider the slabbed comic premium (or simply that I don,t have to pay to slab it)

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/superhero/whiz-comics-103-fawcett-publications-1948-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-to-white-pages/a/121948-12000.s?ic16=ViewItem-Auction-Archive-PreviousPricesHeritage-081514

Here's another example

Captain Marvel Jr #38 in 4.0 was $90 in the price guide in 2016 (so just a few years ago). We have a record of it selling at a public auction online for $179.25 raw. So they paid a 99% premium over the guide price (so basically double what the price guide said it's worth). You can see it here, it's a nice copy but there is staining on the cover https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/captain-marvel-jr-28-fawcett-publications-1945-condition-vg/a/121728-12281.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

In 2020 (so just a few weeks ago), that same comic came back in the same auction. It had been slabbed and instead of being a 4.0 (like the person bought), it turned out to be a 5.5, which is worth $124 according to the 2019 price guide. I bought that exact comic at during the auction with a bid of $89. That is a 28% discount compared to the guide price. And yeah, instead of paying $179, I just paid $89 for that same comic, so 2 weeks ago I paid half of what someone paid 3 years ago. And it's slabbed meaning I have even greater savings if you consider the slabbed comic premium (or simply that I don't have to pay to slab it). https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/captain-marvel-jr-28-fawcett-publications-1945-cgc-fn-55-cream-to-off-white-pages/a/122001-11192.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

This should also serve as a scary lesson for how wrong things can go if you look at the flip side. That person who paid $179 three years ago (instead of putting it in the bank at minimal interest) lost a bunch. Of my $89, they only get back $60. Plus it cost $40 to get is slabbed (not counting shipping). So their initial investment of $179 (if we look at it that way) became at most $20 three years later. And once you add in taxes for the initial sale of the comic and shipping to and from CGC, I am pretty sure you end up with $0.

 

Of course, the real winner here is the auctioneer who simply made both a buyers premium AND seller commission twice in 3 years for the same comic.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by William-James88

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

The caronavirus just crashed the stock market, so what the heck, let’s make a complex question more complex!

Actually, some of the medical and scientiful experts claim that a lot of this seems to be a bit overblown with all of the media hype and impact of social media nowadays. 

Especially considering that at this current point in time, there is only one confirmed and one presumed case of coronavirus in Canada, and yet there are apparently 12,500 cases of regular influenza, which in some cases are also deadly.  

As a safety precaution and your own peace of mind though, I strongly suggest that all of you board members here turf out all of your Bat related books before the good citizens riot and hunt you down as revenge against this nefarious coronavirus.  I am more than willing to sacrifice my own well-being by offering to take all of your Batman 1's, 'Tec 27, and other pre-Robin 'Tec books off your hands before the coronavirus infected crowds come looking for you.    

[fifties]

36 minutes ago, William-James88 said:

Investment wise, that means you have to look at books that have stayed rather stable in price since that's an indication that interest is not high. The fact that there are so few copies means that almost by definition, non key golden age books are undervalued. I mean that fact that issue 10 of Bulletman (a book with only 10 or so issues in the registry) is cheaper than issue 10 of Fantastic Four (a book with 800 or so issues in the registry), clearly reveals an opportunity in the market. 

 

 

You are apparently looking at this as a so-called "widget buyer", rather than as a true collector.  I'm not knocking that, it's simply an observation.  I am on another board dedicated to collecting antique radios.  It's been recognized over there that even if an item is considered rare, that doesn't necessarily equate to value.  That aspect is driven by both demand and condition.  In your example, purchasing Bulletman because it's comparatively undervalued to a hot title is merely a speculation.

Personally, I've been astounded by the increase in the current cost of many of my books, even the ones bought just a few years ago, I guess because pre-code horror, covers illustrated by L.B. Cole, and stories illustrated by E.C. artists in other publishers' books, have been on fire.  But their value to me is the story content, and of course the cover illustrations.  The monetary aspect is down the list, as I never plan on selling any. I guess if enough collectors of this genre feel the same, it might be one answer as to why they are in short supply.

[N e r V]

Well one thing the comics market does lack vs the stock market is the sell offs the last few days (fears over the coronavirus in the US and abroad) that figure into profits when buying in at the lows. Yes it does happen in comics and real estate but not at the speeds that it occurs in stocks. On the downside that alone can give the strongest ones ulcers on their ulcers....

[William-James88]

18 minutes ago, fifties said:

You are apparently looking at this as a so-called "widget buyer", rather than as a true collector.  I'm not knocking that, it's simply an observation.  I am on another board dedicated to collecting antique radios.  It's been recognized over there that even if an item is considered rare, that doesn't necessarily equate to value.  That aspect is driven by both demand and condition.  In your example, purchasing Bulletman because it's comparatively undervalued to a hot title is merely a speculation.

 

yeah, for sure. The original question is not from a true collector stand point and was only looking at comics like stocks, so I responded accordingly. Finding opportunities in comics as one does with stocks. It's all speculation. 

But this is not indicative of myself at all. The only reason why I got good deals was not because I spotted them across a wide range of books (no time for that), but because I was looking at books I loved and didn't spend more than I felt comfortable or could afford.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

2 hours ago, William-James88 said:

The original question is not from a true collector stand point

You can say that, but I respectfully disagree.  If I'm going to spend well into 6 figures for a book, as I have the last couple of years, I can't go about it stupidly.   It's no longer a "lark" to buy a Bat 1 or a Cap 1, like maybe it once was for some guys on this board. The hobby needs guys like me still willing to leap into the breach.  You cannot dismiss guys like me as "not a true collector".  

Edited January 28, 2020 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[William-James88]

8 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

You can say that, but I respectfully disagree.  If I'm going to spend well into 6 figures for a book, as I have the last couple of years, I can't be stupid.  It's no longer a "lark" to buy a Bat 1 or a Cap 1, like maybe it once was for some guys on this board. The hobby needs guys like me still willing to leap into the breach.  You cannot dismiss guys like me as "not a true collector".  

It was something Fifties said that I kept for the sake of continuity in the discussion, I don't really have a dog in this fight, just trying to help you out with an in depth response.

The point of this topic is about comics as an investment, with the notion of diversifying from stocks, so I don't see how being a collector (true or not) applies to anything your question asked. It's all in reference to the stand point of the question and not necessarily you. I don't at all mean you are not a true collector.

Edited January 28, 2020 by William-James88

[Cat-Man_America]

17 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

You can say that, but I respectfully disagree.  If I'm going to spend well into 6 figures for a book, as I have the last couple of years, I can't be stupid.  It's no longer a "lark" to buy a Bat 1 or a Cap 1, like maybe it once was for some guys on this board. The hobby needs guys like me still willing to leap into the breach.  You cannot dismiss guys like me as "not a true collector".  

You're definitely a true collector.  

Now if Kim Jong Un launched a nuke that somehow ended up in the Metroplex, folks participating in our end of the hobby might get a little nervous, but otherwise GA collectors on the fence shouldn't dismiss us.  

Edited January 28, 2020 by Cat-Man_America
Two Chimay ales with lunch! ;0)

[MrBedrock]

40 minutes ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

 If I'm going to spend well into 6 figures for a book, as I have the last couple of years, I can't be stupid.

Why not?

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

7 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

Why not?

well, good point

[MrBedrock]

1 minute ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

well, good point

[october]

1 hour ago, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

If I'm going to spend well into 6 figures for a book, as I have the last couple of years, I can't be stupid.  It's no longer a "lark" to buy a Bat 1 or a Cap 1, like maybe it once was for some guys on this board. The hobby needs guys like me still willing to leap into the breach.  You cannot dismiss guys like me as "not a true collector".  

This is absolutely not a reflection on you, since I don't know you, but the hobby has seen plenty of people who spent well into 6 figures on a book and were A) stupid and B) not true collectors. 

Buying something expensive indicates the size of your wallet and not much else. Actually, maybe not ever that, given the amount of guys that fund their hobby with credit card debt.

Edited January 28, 2020 by october

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, William-James88 said:

GA comics are the rarest around so a slight change in demand can have a huge change in prices. If 5 rich collectors want a specific nicely graded pre code horror comic in their collection, then that comic will sky rocket in price.

We have clearly seen this exact scenario which you are alluding to here actually take place with respect to many of the Centaur books over the past few years.    

2 hours ago, William-James88 said:

Investment wise, that means you have to look at books that have stayed rather stable in price since that's an indication that interest is not high. The fact that there are so few copies means that almost by definition, non key golden age books are undervalued. I mean that fact that issue 10 of Bulletman (a book with only 10 or so issues in the registry) is cheaper than issue 10 of Fantastic Four (a book with 800 or so issues in the registry), clearly reveals an opportunity in the market. 

Not exactly sure why you would say that non-key GA books are undervalued simply because there are fewer copies of them around?  

Especially since I believe that the eventual price of a book is determined by the supply and demand for the particular book in question.  Since the collecting of vintage comic books are still largely seen as a collectible, I believe the demand side of the vlauation equation would tend to have an overriding factor in comparison to the supply side of the valuation equation.  For example, even though there has been a large supply of Hulk 181's available in the marketplace over the years, prices have continued to rocket up in an accelerating pace due to the overwhelming demand for the book.  On the other hand, although there is a very low supply of the Platinum Age books (i.e. such as Famous Funnies, Feature Books, Popular, etc.) or the very early pre-hero DC books (i.e. such as New Fun, New Comics, New Adeventure, etc.) prices have gone up at a much more tepid pace becuase the demand for these early non-super hero books are just not there in the current marketplace.  In addition, true rarity always tends to hurt the price of a book simply due to the fact that by hardly ever coming into the marketplace, there is a lack of turnover in the book to generate and reinforce upward price movements going forward at the same pace as much more readily available books.  

As for your specific examples like Bulletman 10, Whiz 103, and CMJ 38, these are really non-key mid-run books that do not tend to draw as much demand interest from both a collectible and investment point of view.  Especially in today's current marketplace where books are so expensive that the main focus are much more so on the keys and classic cover books.  As a result, what you may think are scarcer books due to the lower census count such as the ones you mentioned above are probably also caused in large part due to the simple fact that collectors don't think it's worthwhile to have these non-key mid-run books graded and slabbed, as opposed to the keys and classic covers where the much bigger money is. 

[MrBedrock]

9 minutes ago, october said:

This is absolutely not a reflection on you, since I don't know you, but the hobby has seen plenty of people who spent well into 6 figures on a book and were A) stupid and B) not true collectors. 

Buying something expensive indicates the size of your wallet and not much else. Actually, maybe not ever that, given the amount of guys that fund their hobby with credit card debt.

There was a buyer from this area who routinely bought ultra-expensive books from one particular dealer and nearly every time he resold them he lost money. As hard as I tried he would never listen to my advice, or buy books from anyone other the guy who in hindsight continually buried him in boat anchors. We used to call him "dead money", a poker term for the tournament players who pay their buy-in but have no chance of winning. His trust fund money eventually ran out and as far as I know he is no longer buying comics.

[batman_fan]

16 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

There was a buyer from this area who routinely bought ultra-expensive books from one particular dealer and nearly every time he resold them he lost money. As hard as I tried he would never listen to my advice, or buy books from anyone other the guy who in hindsight continually buried him in boat anchors. We used to call him "dead money", a poker term for the tournament players who pay their buy-in but have no chance of winning. His trust fund money eventually ran out and as far as I know he is no longer buying comics.

 Wonder if I might know who that dealer was/is

[october]

17 minutes ago, MrBedrock said:

There was a buyer from this area who routinely bought ultra-expensive books from one particular dealer and nearly every time he resold them he lost money. As hard as I tried he would never listen to my advice, or buy books from anyone other the guy who in hindsight continually buried him in boat anchors. We used to call him "dead money", a poker term for the tournament players who pay their buy-in but have no chance of winning. His trust fund money eventually ran out and as far as I know he is no longer buying comics.

I knew a guy who would badger a friend of mine repeatedly for five figure books. When the offers got high enough, my friend would finally relent, only to be offered the exact same book back inside of six months which he'd rebuy at a discount. Pretty sure this even played out twice with the EXACT SAME BOOK. Watching a comic rental service happen in real time was pretty strange. He too eventually went bust and disappeared. 

[PopKulture]

2 hours ago, october said:

Actually, maybe not ever that, given the amount of guys that fund their hobby with credit card debt.

The above proposition makes me cringe!! 

[adamstrange]

2 hours ago, october said:

He too eventually went bust and disappeared. 

Maybe we should start the equivalent of a Darwin Award for comic collecting?

[october]

20 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

Maybe we should start the equivalent of a Darwin Award for comic collecting?

The bi-annual Jay Parrino crash and burn trophy.